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03 Probability

This document provides an outline of key concepts in probability, including: - Basic definitions of experiments, sample points, and sample spaces - Counting rules for multiple step experiments, combinations, and permutations - Methods for assigning probabilities, including classical, relative frequency, and subjective approaches - Definitions of events and calculating probabilities of events from the sample space - Examples are provided to illustrate counting rules, assigning probabilities, and calculating probabilities of events.

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Ali Demirkan
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15 views

03 Probability

This document provides an outline of key concepts in probability, including: - Basic definitions of experiments, sample points, and sample spaces - Counting rules for multiple step experiments, combinations, and permutations - Methods for assigning probabilities, including classical, relative frequency, and subjective approaches - Definitions of events and calculating probabilities of events from the sample space - Examples are provided to illustrate counting rules, assigning probabilities, and calculating probabilities of events.

Uploaded by

Ali Demirkan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Outline

• Basic definitions of probability


• Counting rules
• Assigning probabilities
• Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
• The additive rule and mutually exclusive events
• Complementary events
• The multiplicative rule and independent events
Basic definitions of probability

Experiment
An experiment is an act or process of observation that leads
to a single outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty.
Basic definitions of probability

Sample Point

A sample point is the most basic outcome of an experiment.


Basic definitions of probability

Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment is the collection of all
its sample points.
Basic definitions of probability

Experiment Sample Points Sample Space


Observe the up face on a coin Head, tail
Observe the up face on a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Observe the up faces on two HH, HT, TH, TT
coins
Counting rules
Counting rule for multiple-step experiments

If an experiment can be described as a sequence of


steps with possible outcomes on the first step, possible
outcomes on the second step, and so on, then the total
number of experimental outcomes is given by

.
Counting rules
Tree diagram for the experiment of tossing two coins
Counting rules
Example
In the city of Milford, applications for zoning changes go through a two-step
process: a review by the planning commission and a final decision by the city
council. At step 1 the planning commission reviews the zoning change request
and makes a positive or negative recommendation concerning the change. At
step 2 the city council reviews the planning commission’s recommendation and
then votes to approve or to disapprove the zoning change. Suppose the
developer of an apartment complex submits an application for a zoning
change. Consider the application process as an experiment.
a. How many sample points are there for this experiment? List the sample
points.
b. Construct a tree diagram for the experiment.
Counting rules
Counting rule for combinations

The number of combinations of objects taken at a time


is
Counting rules
Examples
1. Consider a quality control procedure in which an inspector
randomly selects two of five parts to test for defects. In a
group of five parts, how many combinations of two parts
can be selected?

2. Consider that the Florida lottery system uses the random


selection of six integers from a group of 53 to determine
the weekly winner. How many experimental outcomes are
possible in the lottery drawing?
Counting rules
Counting rule for permutations

The number of permutations of N objects taken n at a


time is given by
Counting rules
Example

Consider a quality control procedure in which an inspector


randomly selects two of five parts to test for defects. In a group
of five parts, how many permutations of two parts can be
selected?
Assigning probabilities

1. The probability assigned to each experimental outcome must be


between 0 and 1, inclusively.

If we let denote the th sample point (experimental outcome)


and its probability, then this requirement can be written as

𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 ( 𝑬 𝒊 ) ≤ 𝟏 , 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒊
Assigning probabilities

2. The sum of the probabilities for all the experimental outcomes


must equal 1.0. For experimental outcomes (), this requirement
can be written as

𝑃 ( 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐸2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃 ( 𝐸 𝑛 ) =1
Assigning probabilities
• The classical method of assigning probabilities is appropriate
when all the experimental outcomes are equally likely.
• If experimental outcomes are possible, a probability of is
assigned to each experimental outcome.

1
𝑃 ( 𝐸 𝑖 )= ,𝑖=1 , 2 , … ,𝑛
𝑛
• When using this approach, the two basic requirements for
assigning probabilities are automatically satisfied.
Assigning probabilities

• The relative frequency method of assigning probabilities is


appropriate when data are available to estimate the proportion
of the time the experimental outcome will occur if the
experiment is repeated a large number of times.
𝑓
𝑃=
𝑁
Assigning probabilities
The relative frequency method
Assigning probabilities
• The subjective method of assigning probabilities is most appropriate
when one cannot realistically assume that the experimental
outcomes are equally likely and when little relevant data are
available.
• When the subjective method is used to assign probabilities to the
experimental outcomes, we may use any information available, such
as our experience or intuition.
• Because subjective probability expresses a person’s degree of belief, it
is personal. Using the subjective method, different people can be
expected to assign different probabilities to the same experimental
outcome.
Assigning probabilities
Example
The National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) conducted a survey to
learn about how drivers throughout the United
States are using seat belts (Associated Press,
August 25, 2003). Sample data consistent with
the NHTSA survey are given in the table.

a. For the United States, what is the probability that a driver is using a seat belt?
b. The seat belt usage probability for a U.S. driver a year earlier was .75. NHTSA
chief Dr. Jeffrey Runge had hoped for a 0.78 probability in 2003. Would he have
been pleased with the 2003 survey results?
c. What is the probability of seat belt usage by region of the country? What region
has the highest seat belt usage?
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example
Going Green is the term used to describe water conservation
programs at hotels and motels. Many hotels now offer their guests
the option of participating in these Going Green programs by
reusing towels and bed linens. Suppose you randomly select one
hotel from a registry of all hotels in Orange County, California, and
check whether or not the hotel participates in a water conservation
program. Show how this problem might be formulated in the
framework of an experiment with sample points and a sample
space. Indicate how probabilities might be assigned to the sample
points (page 114).
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability

Event

An event is a specific collection of sample points.


Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Probability of an event

The probability of an event A is calculated by summing


the probabilities of the sample points in the sample
space for A.
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability

Probability of an Event

• If be an event in , say . Then,

• If the outcomes are equally likely, then


Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example
Consider the experiment of rolling a pair of dice.
Suppose that we are interested in the sum
of the face values showing on the dice.
a. How many sample points are possible? (Hint: Use the counting
rule for multiple-step experiments.)
b. List the sample points.
c. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 7?
d. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 9 or greater?
e. What method did you use to assign the probabilities requested?
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example

A fair die is tossed, and the up face is observed. If the


face is even, you win $1. Otherwise, you lose $1. What is
the probability that you win?(page 114)
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example

Consider the experiment of tossing two balanced coins


and the following events

Calculate the probability of A and the probability of B


(page 115).
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example
Consider the experiment of tossing two unbalanced coins and the following events

Because the coins are not balanced, their outcomes ( H or T ) are not equiprobable.
Suppose the correct probabilities associated with the sample points are given in the
accompanying table.Calculate the probability of A and the probability of B .
Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability
Example
Fortune magazine publishes an annual list
of the 500 largest companies in the United
States. The data show the five states with
the largest number of Fortune 500 companies
(The New York Times Almanac, 2006).

Suppose a Fortune 500 company is chosen for a follow-up questionnaire. What are
the probabilities of the following events?

a. Let be the event the company is headquartered in New York. Find .


b. Let be the event the company is headquartered in Texas. Find .
c. Let be the event the company is headquartered in one of these five states. Find .
Thank you

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