Afghanistan: A country ‘easier to Take than

to Hold’
Cold war theatre;
Soviet Invasion Mujahedeen;
Geneva Accord;
Post Cold War situation—Rise of Taliban, AL-Qaeda &
9/11;
Operation Enduring Freedom;
The Bonn Process- Withdrawal;
Regional countries and their policies;
Possible Resolution of the issue.
 Brief Introduction

 Afghanistan: A multi ethnic society.

 Afghanistan: The School of militancy & Jihad.

 Afghanistan: Poppy Capital of the World.

 Afghanistan: The most bombed, crushed, corrupted, and mined

nation of the globe.
Ethnic Composition of Afghanistan
Ethnic map of Afghanistan
 Brief Introduction…
 Afghanistan: the most Isolated & barren landscape.

 A prey of its own geography and target of empires and

superpowers.

 Because of resistance character of Afghans, it earned the title of

“Graveyard of Empires.”

 Has always been the part of all ‘great games’.

 Historical Background of Afghan conflict

 No other country has ever faced more blows than that of

Afghanistan.

 Faced wrath of Alexander, and Babur in 1504, who later on

established Mughal Dynasty.

 Modern Afghanistan won its independence on August 19, 1919

under King Amanullah Khan.
 Afghanistan in Cold War
 King Zahir Shah ruled Afghanistan 1933-1973.

 1973 coup of Sardar Dawood.

 April 27, 1978 Communist coup against Dawood by Noor

Muhammad Tarakai.

 Tarakai was ousted by Hafizullah Amin in Sep,1979.

 Amin was ousted by Soviets in Dec 1979.

 Cold War: Global Jihad in Afghanistan
 Soviet invasion December, 1979

 Arms – Stinger, and finances given to Mujahedeen.

 Soviets were defeated. Why?

 Geneva accords April 1988 – USSR troops’ withdrawal –

Najeeb govt.
 Civil War in Afghanistan
 Najeeb stepped down - March 17, 1992.

 Former Mujahedeen took the control of Kabul under Ahmed

Shah Masood.

 Infighting among Mujahedeen led to the emergence of

Taliban 1994.

 Taliban regarded Rabbani govt. as anti Pashtoon and corrupt.

 Rise of Taliban
 Therefore, during Civil War (1994-1996) they earned popular
support from the Pashtun masses.

 In Nov. 1994 Taliban took over Qandahar, and in Sep 1995

captured Herat.

 Eventually, Taliban seized the control of Kabul in September

1996 and ousted the Rabbani Government.
 Operation Enduring Freedom & Bonn Process
 After 9/11, US air power and CIA backed afghan war lords
ousted Taliban within one month.

 UN invited all major Afghan elders other than Taliban, esp.

Northern Alliance to Bonn, Germany.

 On December 5, 2001, the Afghan participants signed the “Bonn

Agreement”.

 UNSC under 1386 resolution, established ISAF to administer

security in Afghanistan.
 9/11 and Bonn Process

 Interim Government was formed under Hamid Karzai on

December 22, 2001.

 In January 2004 Afghan constitution was enacted.

 Hamid Karzai became president after securing 55% votes in

2004 election.
 Old rivals coming close

 Today, old rivals are coming closer for their national interests.

 Now, no single country can control Afghanistan.

 But, still every single country can spoil everything achieved

since 2001.
 Pak/Afghan troublesome relationship

 There are no two states shares as much common fate, culture,

history and geo-political dilemmas as Afghanistan and
Pakistan do.

 Pak Afghan relations have always been at odds.

 Afghanistan opposed Pakistan’s entry into UNO.

 Its irredentist claims – Pashtoonistan stunt.

 Afghanistan descends into chaos.
 In 1960s relations were at ease relatively.

 1970s relations improved in many respects.

 Afghanistan – in late 1978 descended into chaos – USSR invaded

Afghanistan in 1979.

 Mujahedeen resistance – CIA + ISI (Operation Cyclone).

 After 9/11: Taliban ousted.

 After 9/11, Pakistan Joined WoT.

 Emergence of TTP, stability in Afghanistan has become more

crucial for Pakistan.

 Pakistan Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned solution of

Afghanistan issue.
 Afghan response to Pakistani perspective
 Afghan leadership always accuse Pakistan for playing Taliban
card in the guise of (Afghan-lead-Afghan-owned).
 Corrupt and incompetent Afghan govt. keeps on charging
Pakistan.
 Sympathetic policy of Pakistan has been very antagonistically
responded by Afghanistan.
 It has done nothing to address Pakistani grievances about
hunting down TTP leadership in Afghanistan.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan.
 Pakistan gave 1 Bil US$ in aid 6,000 scholarships to
Afghanistan.

 Pakistan wants stable and prosperous Afghanistan.

 Pak does not want Taliban govt in Afghanistan.

 Pakistan has never claimed to have ‘strategic depth’ in

Afghanistan nor does it intend to.
 Stable Afghan. will be strategic depth for Pakistan

“We want to have strategic depth in Afghanistan, but that

does not imply controlling it. If we have a peaceful, stable
and friendly Afghanistan, automatically we will have our
strategic depth because our western border will be
secure, and we will not be looking at two fronts”.
Gen. Kayani, 2010
 Pakistan strategic anxieties

1. Manoeuvring of the TTP by Afghan intelligentsia;

2. Collaboration between TTP and Afghan Taliban.

3. India may embolden Kabul - that will question the validity of

border.

4. Afghanistan can prove to be a second base – India can squeeze

Pakistan from.
 After 9/11: New Government new bitterness
Murree Process
 Ashraf Ghani approached Pakistan and Murree Process was
started in July, 2015.

 But, the breaking of news about the death of Mullah Omer

sabotaged the process.

 In fact, Karzai, NDS, and India were not happy with Pakistan’s
lead role.
 India: aspires for CA

 Indo-Afghan-US nexus is emerging.

 India views Afghanistan through; Pakistan and CA.
 India does not want a religious government in Afghanistan –
Kashmir problem.
 In new US policy 2017, India is a preferred ally not Pakistan.
 India wish to use Afghanistan as “land bridge”, for access to
energy rich CA.
 India: Aspires for CA
 Gave around US$2.5 billion of aid to Afghanistan.

 India believes, Pak and China want to keep it off from

Afghanistan.

 India is projection its soft power by building, universities,

hospitals, dams and building of the parliament.

 An Indian steel group invested US$ 11 Bn in mining.

 Indo- Afghan strategic affair

 Since 2011, India is building capacity of Afghan forces and

arming them.

 Proxy war in Pakistan is rising since 2012.

 TTP, BLA, and BRA has found external support from across
the border.
 Iran: A Concerned Neighbour

 In 1990s, Iran backed Northern Alliance.

 Therefore, supported US-led invasion of Afghanistan to over

throw Deobandi Taliban.

 Iran was with US against Taliban, but after ISIS in

Afghanistan – Iran now supports Taliban as lesser evil.
 Iran: A Concerned Neighbour
 On strategic fronts, Iran has three strategic objectives;

 First, Tehran neither wants a regime closer to U.S. nor anti Shia
conservative like Taliban/ISIS.

 Second; Iran supports Shi’ite Hazaras and Tajiks in Afghan govt

set up.

 Third; protection of investments and personnel in Western

Afghanistan.
 China: Ambitious Power – new in Afghanistan.

 China views Afghanistan through Xinjiang and BRI.

 Instable Afghanistan will be a threat to BRI.

 Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned peace process to keep

India and US out of Afghanistan.
 China: Ambitious Power – new in Afghanistan.
 China is part of all bilateral or multilateral dialogue forums.

 A Chinese group acquired Aynak copper mine deposit worth of

US$ 3.5 bn/30 years That has potential of $ 100 bn.

 “Without Afghan connectivity, there is no way to connect China

with the rest of the world”, Yao Jing.
 Russia: An Afghan Victim

 Russia views Afghanistan through the prisms of security

threats to CARs and Russia.

 First, Russia worries - Islamic extremism of Afghanistan will

energize militant movements in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

 Secondly, drug & human trafficking from Afghanistan to CA

and Russia.
 US South Asia & Afghanistan policy
 A condition based strategy not time bound.
 Troops surge.
 Militaristic in nature not a political strategy.
 Making field officers autonomous.
 Press Pakistan to “do more” - Afghanistan.
 India is a preferred ally.
 Killing Taliban for decisive win.
 Is a recipe for endless war in Afghanistan.
 USA/NATO: Frustrated and Fatigued

 US is neither losing nor winning in Afghanistan.

 IS in Afghanistan reflects that US wants a divided enemy to

keep the manageable chaos going.

 This violence will justify American presence in Afghanistan.

 US/NATO: Frustrated and Fatigued

 US/NATO now insist to keep more than 18,000 troops.

 USA by living in Afghanistan intends to;
1. Contain rising China,
2. Check resurgent Russia,
3. keep an eye on nuclear ambitious Iran,
4. Put pressure on Nuclear Pakistan,
5. Control Persian Gulf energy flows.
 What US fails to Understand?

 US military should not be lead negotiator – Taliban.

 It sends a message, ‘Accept or die’.
 Afghan culture is organized around ‘honor’ – a bigger factor
than Islamist extremism.
 Afghanistan is landlocked, and US has bad relations with
Pakistan, Iran, and Russia.
 USA pressing all of them and hoping settlement in Afghanistan
 Pak-US relations and Afghan question
 A bad marriage, where divorce is impossible, there will be no
happy ending either.

 Both will avoid rupture.

 Serious Trust Deficit prevails – since Trump in office.

 Lost 70,000 lives in WoT, still US is not happy.

 US Pakistani differences on Haqqanis.

 Pak-US relations and Afghan question
 Trump administration has taken a harder line by suspending
military aid.

 But, with China on Pakistan side, this amount wont hurt

Pakistan.

 US measures Pakistani performance with peace or violence in

Afghanistan.

 Above all – US & Pak share No interest today..

The Sustainable Peace Mix for Afghani Conflict
 Afghanistan has no military solution.

 Give politics a chance.

 Dialogue with Taliban.*

1. US - Taliban,
2. Afghan Govt – Taliban.
3. Taliban must be accommodated in new government.
 The Sustainable Peace Mix for Afghanistan
 Capacity to negotiate.
1. Afghan government’s capacity should be built,
2. Enforce writ with strong National security forces.
3. Powerful state institutions and removal of war lords.
4. Good Governance and sustainable economy.
 Regional Talks.
1. India – Pakistan,
2. India – China,
3. US - Pak.
 International Role in Talks.
1. US – Russia,
2. US – Iran,
3. US – China.
 Afghan Conflict and Stakeholders
 International Players.

 Regional Players.

 Afghan Government.

 Opposition Parties.

 War Lords.
 Recipe of Negotiation
1- Afghan – led Incentives;
 Stakeholders must develop mechanisms of;
1. Disarmament: De-weaponization of society ,
2. Demobilization: Private Armed Militias,
3. Reintegration: Into the mainstream politics.
2 - Security Incentives;
4. No one will be targeted by others,
5. State will protect.
 Recipe of Negotiation
3- Amnesty Incentives;
1. General Amnesty be given to every one
2. Past must be buried for the future peace.
4- Political Incentives
3. Power Sharing among ethnic groups.
4. Taliban must be incorporated .
5- Identity Incentives;
5. Power sharing must ensure majority remains the majority.
6. Share according to the population.
 Conclusion: Afghanistan trapped among rivals

 Afghanistan’s future is still unclear despite 17 years long and

expensive campaign by international coalition.

 Peace is trapped among US – Russia, Pakistan – India, China –

India, Persian – Pashtuns, Afghan State – Taliban, Taliban –
ISIS.

 Afghanistan has political solution – not military solution.

Conclusion: Afghanistan trapped among rivals
 Taliban must be mainstreamed as political entity.
 Afghanistan must not become party in Indo Pak rivalry, Russo-
US rivalry, Indo-China, and US-China rivalry.
 Trust deficit must be bridged between US & Russia, India &
Pak, Pak – Afghanistan, US- Pak, and Iran & US.
 IS must be uprooted.
 China should play a larger role for cherished peace and
security.