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Practice Set 2

This document contains 5 exercises involving probability calculations. Exercise 1 involves calculating probabilities related to hypertension and smoking using data from 180 individuals. Exercise 2 calculates the probability a buyer will purchase equipment given they have the ability. Exercise 3 calculates the probability of the Dow Jones Index increasing on Tuesday. Exercise 4 involves probabilities related to the types of TVs remaining in a closing store. Exercise 5 calculates disease diagnosis probabilities based on test accuracy rates.

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28 views

Practice Set 2

This document contains 5 exercises involving probability calculations. Exercise 1 involves calculating probabilities related to hypertension and smoking using data from 180 individuals. Exercise 2 calculates the probability a buyer will purchase equipment given they have the ability. Exercise 3 calculates the probability of the Dow Jones Index increasing on Tuesday. Exercise 4 involves probabilities related to the types of TVs remaining in a closing store. Exercise 5 calculates disease diagnosis probabilities based on test accuracy rates.

Uploaded by

sidrareyaz1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DISC: 203 – PROBABILITY &

STATISTICS
Practice Set 2

1 Lecturer: Muhammad Asim


EXERCISE 1
In an experiment to study the relationship of hypertension
and smoking habits, the following data are collected for 180
individuals:
Non – Smokers Moderate Smokers Heavy Smokers
Hypertension 21 36 30
No Hypertension 48 26 19

 If one person is selected at random, find the probability


that the person is experiencing hypertension
 If one person is selected at random, find the probability
that the person is experiencing hypertension and he is a
heavy smoker.
 If one person is selected at random, find the probability
2
that the person is experiencing hypertension given he is a
heavy smoker.
EXERCISE 1
In an experiment to study the relationship of hypertension and
smoking habits, the following data are collected for 180
individuals:
Non – Smokers Moderate Smokers Heavy Smokers
Hypertension 21 36 30
No Hypertension 48 26 19

 If one person is selected at random, find the probability that


the person is experiencing hypertension (21+36+30)/180
 If one person is selected at random, find the probability that
the person is experiencing hypertension and he is a heavy
smoker.30/180
 If one person is selected at random, find the probability that
the person is experiencing hypertension given he is a heavy 3
smoker. 30/49
EXERCISE 2
Suppose we intend to sell a particular equipment to a potential
buyer. Denote F be the event that the buyer has sufficient money
and Fc as a compliment. Also denote B as event that buyer wishes
to purchase the equipment and Bc be the
compliment. What is the
probability that buyer shall
buy given he has the Desire
ability to make a
Purchase? B Bc
F 0.2 0.1
Ability

P(B/F) = P(B ∩F)/P(F)


=0.2/0.3 = 0.667 Fc 0.4 0.3 4
EXERCISE 3
 Past records kept on the Dow Jones Index show that on
Mondays the index increases 55% of the time. During
the remainder of the week, the index increases on 60% of
the days when it has increased the previous day, but it
increases on only 30% of the days when the previous
day’s trading has resulted in the decrease of the index.
What is the probability that next Tuesday’s trading
results in an increase in the Dow Jones Index?

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EXERCISE 3
 P(M) = Prob of Increase on Monday = 0.55 (given)

P(T/M)= Prob of Increase on Tuesday given it


increases on Monday= 0.6 (given)
P(T/Mc) = 0.3

P(T)=P(T ∩M) + P(T ∩Mc) = P(T/M)* P(M) +


P(T/Mc)* P(Mc) =0.55*0.6 + 045*0.3 = 0.465

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EXERCISE 4
 An appliance store is going out of business and has 11
televisions left: 5 color consoles, 3 portable color sets, and 3
black and white sets. Assume that at each sale, each of the
remaining televisions has an equal chance of being selected.
 Find the probability that the first set sold is a portable color
set.
 Given that the first television sold was a portable color set,
find the probability that the second set sold is a portable
color set.
 Find the probability that neither of the first two sets sold is
black and white.
 Find the probability that the first two sets sold are the same 7
model.
EXERCISE 4
 A1 = {The first set sold is a color console}
 A2 = {The first set sold is a portable color}
 A3 = {The first set sold is a black & white}
 B1 = {The second set sold is a color console}
 B2 = {The second set sold is a portable color}
 B3 = {The second set sold is a black & white}
 P(A1) = 3/11
 P(B2/A2) = 2/10 = 1/5 [using the concept of conditional
probability]
 P(A3cɅB3c) = P(A3c)*P(B3c/A3c) = (8/11)*(7/10)
 P(A1ɅB1) + P(A2ɅB2) + P(A3ɅB3) = P(A1)*P(B1/A1) +
8
P(A2)*P(B2/A2) + P(A3)*P(B3/A3)
= (5/11)*(4/10) + (3/11)*(2/10) + (3/11)*(2/10)
EXERCISE 5
 Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare disease for
which a diagnostic test has been developed. The test is
such that when an individual actually has the disease, a
positive result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an
individual without the disease will show a positive test
result only 2% of the time. If a randomly selected
individual is tested and the result is positive, what is the
probability that the individual has the disease?

9
EXERCISE 5
 A1 = {individual has the disease}, A2= {individual does
not have the disease} and B= {positive test result}.
Then P(A1) =0.001, P(A2)=0.999, P(B/A1)=0.99 and
P(B/A2)=0.02.
 P(B) = P(B and A1) + P(B and A2) = P(B/A1) P(A1) +
P(B/A2) P(A2) = 0.00099 + 0.01998 = 0.02097
 P(A1/B) = P(A1 and B)/P(B) = 0.00099/0.02097 = 0.047

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