4b. Three Financial Statements Model - Tutorial
4b. Three Financial Statements Model - Tutorial
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Step 3 - Use our Excel Balance Sheet statement and adjust the actual
years, projected years and line items when necessary
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Step 4 - Create a map of the different Excel sheets in your workbook
Scenario with
assumptions
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Step 5 - Fill in the historical years for the 3 financial statements
• Fill in the “$” line items using the company’s quarterly and/ oryearly reports
Income
• Fill in the “%” line items using the formulas in our “Example” Excel sheets (if you added or removed line items,
statement make sure the formulas stay relevant
• Link the line items “Net Income”, “D&A” and “Dividend paid” with the relevant items within the income statement
Cash flow • Fill in the remaining line items using the company’s quarterly and/or yearly reports
• Fill in every line item for the first historical year using the company’s quarterly and/ oryearly reports
Balance
• Fill in every line item for the other historical years by linking them with the relevant line items from the cash flow
sheet statement
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Step 6 – If required, identify several scenarios including different
assumptions using our“Scenario”Excel sheet
Actuals Estimates
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Selected scenario: 1.Street scenario
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
COGS as a % of revenue 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
1.Street scenario
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 19% 19% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
COGS as a % of revenue 18% 17% 15% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 27% 24% 22% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
2.Optimistic scenario
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 19% 19% 16% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
COGS as a % of revenue 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 27% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
3.Pessimistic scenario
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 19% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%
COGS as a % of revenue 18% 17% 15% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Selling expenses as a % of revenue 27% 24% 22% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
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Step 7 - Fill in the projected years of the income statement with the
assumptions included in the “Scenario” Excel sheet
Consolidated Income Statement
In US$ millions except per share amounts
Period Ending June 30
Actuals Estimates
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenue
Net Sales $10,000 $12,000 $14,000
% Growth 20% 17%
Other Income $1,000 $1,100 $1,200
% Growth 10% 9%
Total revenue $11,000 $13,100 $15,200 $17,942 $21,179 $25,000 $29,510 $34,834
Y/Y revenue growth (%) 19% 19% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Cost of goods sold
Cost of goods sold $2,000 $2,200 $2,300 $2,684 $3,132 $3,656 $4,266 $4,979
COGS as a % of revenue 18% 17% 15% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Gross profit $9,000 $10,900 $12,900 $15,258 $18,047 $21,344 $25,244 $29,855
Gross profit margin (%) 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14%
Operating expenses
Selling, general and administrative $3,000 $3,200 $3,400 $4,013.38 $4,737.41 $5,592.06 $6,600.89 $7,791.73
SG&A as a % of revenue 27% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
EBITDA $6,000 $7,700 $9,500 $11,245 $13,309 $15,752 $18,643 $22,063
EBITDA margin (%) 55% 59% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63% 63%
Depreciation and amortization $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
EBIT $5,000 $6,700 $8,500 $10,245 $12,309 $14,752 $17,643 $21,063
EBIT margin (%) 45% 51% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 60%
Interest
Interest expense $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Interest income $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
Net interest expense $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
EBT $4,500 $6,200 $8,000 $9,745 $11,809 $14,252 $17,143 $20,563
EBT margin (%) 41% 47% 53% 54% 56% 57% 58% 59%
Income tax expense $1,000 $1,400 $1,900 $2,226.74 $2,698.50 $3,256.73 $3,917.28 $4,698.85
Tax rate (%) 22% 23% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Net Income (Adjusted) $3,500 $4,800 $6,100 $7,518 $9,111 $10,995 $13,225 $15,864
Non-recurring events
Discontinued operations $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total non-recurring events $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Net Income $2,500 $3,800 $5,100 $6,518 $8,111 $9,995 $12,225 $14,864
Dividend payout $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200
Net Income after distribution $2,300 $3,600 $4,900 $6,318 $7,911 $9,795 $12,025 $14,664
Sometimes you may want to have some assumptions in your income statement sheet and not in
Important Note your scenario sheet. If you do, make sure that they are in green. Also be aware that when you
change scenario in your scenario sheet, these assumptions will stay identical.
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Step 8 - Fill in the projected years on the cash flow statement
Actuals Estimates
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income adjusted $3,500 $4,800 $6,100 $7,518 $9,111 $10,995 $13,225 $15,864
Depreciation and amortization $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Deferred income taxes $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200
Changes in operating working capital
Changes in accounts receivable $100 $0 $100 $67 $67 $67 $67 $67
Changes in inventory $189 $100 ($200) $30 $30 $30 $30 $30
Changes in accounts payable $100 ($100) $100 $33 $33 $33 $33 $33
Changes in accrued liabilities $189 $100 ($200) $30 $30 $30 $30 $30
Net changes in operating working capital $578 $100 ($200) $159 $159 $159 $159 $159
Total cash flows from operating activities $5,278 $6,100 $7,100 $8,877 $10,470 $12,355 $14,585 $17,224
Cash flows from investing activities
Payments for property and equipment (CAPEX) ($800) ($1,200) ($1,300) ($1,100) ($1,100) ($1,100) ($1,100) ($1,100)
Other investing activities $630 $500 $2,000 $1,043 $1,043 $1,043 $1,043 $1,043
Total cash from investing activities ($170) ($700) $700 ($57) ($57) ($57) ($57) ($57)
Cash flows from financing activities
Short-term borrowings (repayments) ($680) ($2,000) $1,120 ($520) ($520) ($520) ($520) ($520)
Long-term borrowings (repayments) $900 $1,630 $900 $1,143 $1,143 $1,143 $1,143 $1,143
Dividends paid ($200) ($200) ($200) ($200) ($200) ($200) ($200) ($200)
Equity Issuances (buybacks) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300) ($300)
Total cash from financing activities ($280) ($870) $1,520 $123 $123 $123 $123 $123
Total change in cash and cash equivalents $4,828 $4,530 $9,320 $8,944 $10,537 $12,421 $14,651 $17,290
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Step 9 - The balance sheet projected year should be automatically updated
based on the cash flow statement. Just ensure that Asset = Liabilities + Equity
sheet with the cash flow Total current liabilities $2,000 $0 $1,020 $563 $106 ($351) ($808) ($1,265)
Long-term debt $16,800 $18,430 $19,330 $20,473 $21,617 $22,760 $23,903 $25,047
statement is the right Deferred income taxes and other $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900
correct by using your Total liabilities $19,300 $19,130 $21,250 $22,136 $23,023 $23,909 $24,795 $25,682
common sense or Shareholders' equity
checking the formulas Equity $10,000 $9,700 $9,400 $9,100 $8,800 $8,500 $8,200 $7,900
Retained earnings $2,700 $7,300 $13,200 $20,518 $29,429 $40,224 $53,249 $68,913
we used in our Excel Total shareholders' equity $12,700 $17,000 $22,600 $29,618 $38,229 $48,724 $61,449 $76,813
examples Total liabilities & equity $32,000 $36,130 $43,850 $51,754 $61,251 $72,633 $86,245 $102,495
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA:
Balance? (Y/N) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
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Step 10 - Double-check Double-check that your financial statements
automatically update when you change scenario and make sure the financial
statements are linked properly
From income statement… … to cash flow statement
Interest CAPEX
Investing
Income tax expense Other investing activities activities
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Step 10 - Double-check that your financial statements automatically update
when you change scenario and make sure the financial statements are
linked properly
From cash flow statement… … to balance sheet
Net income adjusted Cash
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