Ordinary differential equation

• The standard logistic function is the solution of the simple first-order non-linear
ordinary differential equation.

• The logistic equation is a special case of the Bernoulli differential equation and has the following
solution.

• Choosing the constant of integration C=1 gives the other well known form of the definition of the logistic
curve:

• The logistic function is the inverse of the natural logit function and so can be used to convert the
logarithm of odds into a probability. In mathematical notation the logistic function is sometimes written
as expit[7] in the same form as logit. The conversion from the log-likelihood ratio of two alternatives also
takes the form of a logistic curve.
The differential equation derived above is a special case of a general differential equation that only models the
sigmoid function for x>0

can be desirable. Its solution is the shifted and scaled sigmoid aSk(x-r)
The hyperbolic-tangent relationship leads to another form for the logistic function's derivative:

which ties the logistic function into the logistic distribution

The logistic function is thus rotationally symmetrical about the point (0, 1/2).
 APPLICATIONS IN DAILY LIFE:
• In statistics and machine learning:
Logistic functions are used in several roles in statistics. For example, they are the
cumulative distribution function of the logistic family of distributions, and they are, a bit
simplified, used to model the chance a chess player has to beat his opponent in the
Elo rating system. More specific examples now follow.
• In chemistry: reaction models:
The concentration of reactants and products in autocatalytic reactions follow the logistic function.
The degradation of Platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) catalyst
in fuel cell cathodes follows the logistic decay function, suggesting an autocatalytic degradation
mechanism.
• In agriculture: modeling crop response:
The logistic S-curve can be used for modeling the crop response to changes in growth factors.
There are two types of response functions: positive and negative growth curves. For example, the
crop yield may increase with increasing value of the growth factor up to a certain level (positive
function), or it may decrease with increasing growth factor values (negative function owing to a
negative growth factor), which situation requires an inverted S-curve.
• In medicine: modeling of a pandemic
• A novel infectious pathogen to which a population has no immunity will generally spread
exponentially in the early stages, while the supply of susceptible individuals is plentiful. The SARS-
CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 exhibited exponential growth early in the course of infection in
several countries in early 2020. Many factors, ranging from lack of susceptibles (either through the
continued spread of infection until it passes the threshold for reduction in the accessibility of
susceptibles through physical distancing measures), exponential-looking epidemic curves may first
linearize (replicating the "logarithmic" to "logistic" transition and then reach a maximal limit.
• A logistic function are usually used in a descriptive or phenomenological manner because they fit
well not only to the early exponential rise, but to the eventual levelling off of the pandemic as the
population develops a herd immunity. This is in contrast to actual models of pandemics which
attempt to formulate a description based on the dynamics of the pandemic (e.g. contact rates,
incubation times, social distancing, etc.). Some simple models have been developed, however,
which yield a logistic solution.

A generalized logistic function, also called the Richards growth curve, is widely used in modelling
COVID-19 infection trajectories. Infection trajectory is a daily time series data for the cumulative
number of infected cases for a subject such as country, city, state, etc. There are variant re-
parameterizations in the literature: one of frequently used forms is
 EXAMPLE:

• The population of the US in 1800 and 1850 was 5.3 and 23.1 million people respectively. Predict its
population in 1900 and in 1950 using the exponential model of population growth. Then considering that
the population of the US in 1900 was actually 76 million people correct your prediction for 1950 using the
logistic model of population growth (help: with this data k = 0.031476 in the logistic model). What is the
carrying capacity of the US according to this model?
SOLUTION: Answer : Since we start with observations in 1800 it makes sense to choose the variable t as time
elapsed since 1800.
According to the exponential model the population at time t is
P(t) = P0ekt , where P0 = P(0).
In our problem we have P0 = 5.3. Next we determine the value of k from P(50) = 5.3ek·50 = 23.1 ⇒ k = (log
23.1 − log 5.3)/50 = 0.029443. Hence, the population at time t according to the exponential model will be P(t) =
5.3e0.0294·t , and for 1900 (t = 100) and 1950 (t = 150) we get respectively:
P(100) = 5.3e0.029443·100 = 100.7 ,
P(150) = 5.3e0.029443·150 = 438.8
Now we are told that the population in 1900 was actually P(100) = 76 million people and are asked to correct
the prediction for 1950 using the logistic model. The logistic model is given by the formula
P(t) = K 1 + Ae−kt ,
where A = (K − P0)/P0. The given data tell us that
P(50) = K 1 + (K − 5.3)e−50k/5.3 = 23.1 ,
P(100) = K 1 + (K − 5.3)e−100k/5.3 = 76 .
We can obtain K and k from these system of two equations, but we are told that k = 0.031476, so we only need
to obtain K (the carrying capacity) from one of the equations, say the first one. The result is K = 189.4. From
here we get A = 34.74 and
P(t) = 189.4 1 + 34.74e−0.031476t .
hence in 1950, P(150) = 144.7 million people (the actual figure was 150.7 million people, slightly higher than
expected due to the beginning of the so called “baby boom”).
In this model the carrying capacity of the US is K = 189.4 million people.