FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS
PROGRAM STUDI S2 MANAJEMEN
PERTEMUAN 3
Peramalan penjualan dan Pasar potensial
MANAJEMEN MEREK
DAN PENGEMBANGAN
PRODUK
Dr. Miguna Astuti, S.Si.,MM.,MOS.,CPM.,CIRR
DR. MIGUNA ASTUTI, S.SI.,
MM., MOS., CPM., CIRR.
A lecturer - entrepreneur - marketing
consultant - author
@migunaastuti
@miguna_astuti
Miguna Astuti
Miguna Astuti
BUSINESS
FORECASTING
BUSINESS FORECASTING
Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible,
given all the information available including historical data and
knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts.
Hence, Business forecasting is the process used to estimate or
predict future patterns of a firm using business data.
‘‘Business forecasting definition’’ is the assessment of a company’s
or industry’s future developments based on previous and present
data trends and patterns.
Why is business forecasting
important?
Increases chances of business success
Helps company formulate plans
Estimates the financial needs of a company
Improves customer satisfaction
PURPOSE OF FORECASTING
Short–Run
• help to forecast seasonal patters which is important for
inventory management and pricing policy
Long–Run
• help in proper capital planning which is important for HRM
and investment decision making
STEPS IN PROCESS OF FORECASTING
What are some of the
most essential business
forecasting methods?
METODE UNTUK
MENGESTIMASI PASAR DAN
PENJUALAN POTENSIAL
Market Build Up Method
Metode ini digunakan oleh perusahaan
barang industri untuk mengidentifikasi
semua pembeli potensial dalam setiap pasar
dan mengestimasikan pembelian
potensialnya.
Market Factor Index Method
Metode ini digunakan oleh perusahaan barang
konsumsi dengan mengidentifikasikan faktor-
faktor pasar yang ada hubungannya dengan
potensi pasar.
Mengestimasi Penjualan Aktual
Dan Pangsa Pasar
Untuk mengetahui penjualan yang sebenarnya
dari indusri bersangkutan yang terjadi
dipasar,dengan mengidentifikasi para pesaing
dan mengestimasi penjualan mereka
Other kinds of
business
forecasting
SALES FORECASTING
Market Potential
METHOD OF
BUSINESS
FORECASTING
QUALITATIVE
FORECASTING METHOD
Market Survey Method
This is considered a direct and very old method
Depending on the respondent category, a survey can
be in the form of a salesforce survey or customer
survey.
The information on the survey can be obtained from
customers or users through telephonic interviews, in-
person interviews, or mail questionnaires.
Executive Opinion Method
This method includes gathering the advice or opinion of
expert members who are part of a group of experts and
their opinion is further utilized to determine the forecast.
Key executives from different departments such as
accounts, production, sales, and finance are also a part of
this expert team.
These experts provide the estimation of the demand
according to their experience and expertise.
An approach of the personal focus group can be used
Sales Force Opinion Method
This method includes taking input from sales staff on
future estimated sales. This method works on the
assumption that salespeople understand the needs of
customers in a better way because they are in direct
contact with most of the customers. The response of
this survey is aggregated to determine future demand.
Delphi Method
In this method, each member of the expert group
provides their responses to independent
representatives responsible for summarizing these
forecasts and any supportive statements. They forward
the summary back to the experts along with any
further queries. This process continues until a final
agreement is obtained
QUANTITATIF
FORECASTING METHOD
Time Series Analysis
In this Method analysis of data of one type or several
types is done to determine the forecast.
Patterns of the prior or historical data are examined
and future demand is forecasted based on those
patterns
Time Series data is considered a group of data that is
collected or recorded at regular intervals i.e. on a
weekly, quarterly, or yearly basis. Examples sales data
of an organization on a quarterly basis since 2015.
Time Series Analysis
Naive Method
Moving Average
Method
Weighted Moving
Average Method
Trend Projection
Method
Exponential
Smoothing Method
Moving Average Method
In this method, the moving average is calculated by
doing the sum and average of the values mentioned
in a time series over periods that are specified on a
repetitive basis. In this, the old value is deleted and
the new value is added each time. The next period’s
forecast will be the same as the average calculated
by summing previous or recent observations. Also,
equal weightage is given to each observation.
Moving Average Method
Casual or Associative Forecasting
This method include identifying variables that can
be useful in estimating another variable that has
some type of association with each other. These are
also termed casual forecasting models. The
assumption, on which these models are based, is
that validity of the link between independent and
dependent variables from a historical point of view
will remain in the future, and also, it is easy to
estimate each independent variable.
Casual or Associative Forecasting
Models
Regression Method
of Forecasting
Econometric
Method
THANK YOU &
ENJOY YOUR LEARNING
