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Conditional Probability

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JHAMES LOUIE CAGUD
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42 views

Conditional Probability

Uploaded by

JHAMES LOUIE CAGUD
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CONDITIONA

L
The probability of
an event occurring
given that another
event has already
occurred.
The conditional
probability of B given
that A has occurred is:
or
The conditional
probability of A given
that B has occurred is:
or
EXAMPLE 1:
A pair of dice is rolled once,
find the probability that:
a. one of the dice shows a 3 if
it is known that the sum is 7.
b. the sum is 7 if it is known
that one of the dice shows a
3.
SOLUTION:
Dice 1
Dice 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
2 1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
3 1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
4 1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
6 1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6
SOLUTION:
a. Probability that one of the dice
shows a 3 if it is known that the
sum is 7
A = {sum of the numbers is 7}
A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2),
(6,1)}
n(A) = 6
B = {3 appears on one of the dice}
SOLUTION:
B = {(1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (4,3), (5,3),
(6,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)}
n(B) = 11
A B = {(3,4), (4,3)}
n(A B) = 2
SOLUTION:

the probability that one of the


dice shows a 3 if it is known that
the sum is 7 is .
SOLUTION:
b. Probability that the sum of 7 if
it is known that one of the dice
shows a 3.

the probability that the sum is 7


SOLUTION:
if it is known that one of the dice
shows a 3.
EXAMPLE 2:
Three hundred fifty returning
OFW’s were quarantined in
two different locations, Nova
Hotel and Diplomat Lodge.
After the mandatory 14-day
quarantine, they were
interviewed whether they were
EXAMPLE 2:
satisfied or dissatisfied on the
services available during the
quarantine. The following table
summarizes their responses:
LOCATION SATISFIED DISSATISFIED TOTAL
NOVA
143 54 197
HOTEL
DIPLOMAT
127 26 153
LODGE
TOTAL 270 80 350
EXAMPLE 2:
If one person from the 350
OFW’s is chosen at random,
find the probability that the
person:
a. is not satisfied given that
he stayed at Diplomat Lodge.
b. stayed at Nova Hotel given
EXAMPLE 2:
that he is satisfied.
c. is known to have stayed at
Diplomat Lodge and was
satisfied.
SOLUTION:
a. Probability that the person is
not satisfied given that he stayed
at Diplomat Lodge.
Let A be the event that the person
is not satisfied.
n(A) = 80
Let B be the event that the person
stayed at Diplomat Lodge.
SOLUTION:
n(B) = 153
n(A B) = 26

the probability that the person is


not satisfied given that he stayed
SOLUTION:
at Diplomat Lodge is .
b. Probability that the person
stayed at Nova Hotel given that he
is satisfied
Let A be the event that the person
stayed at Nova Hotel.
n(A) = 197
SOLUTION:
Let B be the event that the person
is satisfied.
n(B) = 270
n(A B) = 143
SOLUTION:
the probability that the person
stayed at Nova Hotel given that he
is satisfied is .
c. Probability that the person is
known to have stayed at Diplomat
Lodge and was satisfied.
Let A be the event that the person
SOLUTION:
stayed at Diplomat Lodge
n(A) = 153
Let B be the event that the person
was satisfied.
n(B) = 270
n(A B) = 127
SOLUTION:

the probability that the person is


known to have stayed at Diplomat
Lodge and was satisfied is .

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