Professor M. N.

Maiturare
Introduction
Network analysis is an important technique in Project Management to model and analyze the
flow of activities within a project. It enables us to take a systematic quantitative structured
approach to the problem of managing a project through to successful completion.

It generally refers to certain specific techniques which can be used for the planning,
management and control of unique and complex projects.

It provides a visual representation of project activities and their dependencies, allowing

project managers to understand the critical path, identify potential bottlenecks, and estimate
project durations.

Networks model the interrelated flows of work that must be accomplished to complete a
project .
Project

Plan the work first…..then work the plan

 A project is a series of activities directed to accomplishment of a desired
objective.

 Also, A project is a temporary endeavour undertaken to create a "unique"

product or service
The Main Techniques
Critical Path Method (CPM) 5

 CPM is a project management technique used to determine the longest sequence of

activities in a project that must be completed in order to meet the project's deadline.
 The Key concepts in CPM include activities, nodes, precedence relationships, early
start time (ES), early finish time (EF), late start time (LS), late finish time (LF), and
float or slack.

Development and Characteristics

 E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for construction of new chemical plant and
maintenance shut-down
 Deterministic task times
 Activity-on-node network construction
 Repetitive nature of jobs
CPM Cont’d

 In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using

activity-on-node network construction
USED IN: Production management - for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the
activity time estimates can be predicted with considerable certainty due to the
existence of past experience.
 CPM helps project managers:
 Identify the critical path and prioritize activities.
 Determine the minimum project duration.
 Identify activities with float or slack that can be delayed without affecting the project
deadline.
 Monitor and control project progress.
Steps in CPM
Identify project activities and their dependencies.

Construct a project network diagram using nodes to represent activities and arrows to
represent dependencies.

Determine the duration of each activity.

Calculate the earliest start and finish times (ES and EF) for each activity.

Calculate the latest start and finish times (LS and LF) for each activity.

Identify the critical path, which consists of activities with zero float or slack.

Calculate the total project duration based on the critical path.

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Development and Characteristics

 U S Navy (1958) for the POLARIS missile program
 Multiple task time estimates (probabilistic nature)
 Activity-on-arrow network construction
 Non-repetitive jobs (R & D work)
PERT
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique is a method to analyze the involved
tasks in completing a given project, especially the time needed to complete each
task, and identifying the minimum time needed to complete the total project.
 Activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity-on-
arrow network construction. It is based on the assumption that an activity’s
duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value.
 Multiple time estimates
 Probabilistic activity times
Steps in PERT
Identify project activities and their dependencies.

Determine the optimistic (O), pessimistic (P), and most likely (M) time estimates for each
activity.

Calculate the expected time (TE) for each activity using the formula:
TE = (O + 4M + P) / 6.

Calculate the standard deviation (SD) for each activity using the formula:
SD = (P - O) / 6.

Construct a project network diagram and calculate the expected project duration by summing
the expected times along the critical path.

Determine the probability of completing the project within a certain duration using the normal
distribution.
Benefits of PERT

• Account for uncertainty in project durations.

PERT helps • Estimate project completion probabilities.

project
managers: • Identify activities with high variability and potential risks.

• Allocate resources effectively based on critical activities.

Differences Between PERT and CPM
 Gantt chart

Originated by H.L.Gantt in 1918

Advantages Limitations
- Gantt charts are quite commonly used.  Do not clearly indicate details
They provide an easy graphical regarding the progress of activities
representation of when activities (might)
take place.  Do not give a clear indication of
interrelation ship between the separate
activities
CPM/PERT

These deficiencies can be eliminated to a large extent by showing the interdependence

of various activities by means of connecting arrows called network technique.

 Overtime CPM and PERT became one technique

 ADVANTAGES:
 Precedence relationships
 large projects
 more efficient
The Project Network

 Use of nodes and arrows

Arrows  An arrow leads from tail to head directionally

 Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is required to perform a part of the
work.

Nodes  A node is represented by a circle

- Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish.
Activity on Node & Activity on Arrow

Activity on Node Activity on Arrow

- A completion of an activity is - An arrow represents a task,

represented by a node while a node is the completion
of a task
- Arrows represent order of events
Activity Slack

Each event has two important times associated with it :

 Earliest time , Te , which is a calendar time when a event can occur when
all the predecessor events completed at the earliest possible times
 Latest time , TL , which is the latest time the event can occur with out
delaying the subsequent events and completion of project.

 Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is the slack
time for that event

Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be delayed without
delaying the project completion
Critical Path

 Is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no “slack” i.e.. Zero
slack

 Longest path through a network

 minimum project completion time
Benefits of CPM/PERT

 Useful at many stages of project management

 Mathematically simple
 Give critical path and slack time
 Provide project documentation
 Useful in monitoring costs
Questions Answered by CPM & PERT

 Completion date?
 On Schedule?
 Within Budget?
 Critical Activities?
 How can the project be finished early at the least cost?
PERT
 PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s duration
follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value
 Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of
an activity’s duration distribution:
 pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if things did not go well
 most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activity’s duration
 optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well
Time Computations

t p + 4 tm + to
Mean (expected time): te =

6
2
tp - to
Variance: Vt =2 =
6
PERT analysis
 Draw the network.
 Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.
 The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is assumed to be normal
 The standard deviation of the project duration probability
distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical
activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum
 Probability computations can now be made using the normal
distribution table.
Probability computation

Determine probability that project is completed within specified

time
x-
Z=

where  = tp = project mean time
 = project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time
Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

Z

 = tp x Time
 PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A -- 4 6 8
B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
K G,I 3 5 7
 PERT Example
PERT Network

A E H J

B I K
F

G
PERT Example
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9
 PERT Example
 Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
 A 0 6 0 6 0*
 B 0 4 5 9 5
 C 6 9 6 9 0*
 D 6 11 15 20 9
 E 6 7 12 13 6
 F 9 13 9 13 0*
 G 9 11 16 18 7
 H 13 19 14 20 1
 I 13 18 13 18 0*
 J 19 22 20 23 1
 K 18 23 18 23 0*
PERT Example
Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414
z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71
From the Standard Normal Distribution table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
Conclusion

Project network analysis, (CPM and PERT), provides valuable tools for project
managers to plan, schedule, and control projects effectively.

By understanding the critical path, project managers can focus their efforts on
activities that have the greatest impact on project duration.

PERT allows for the consideration of uncertainty in project durations and

provides a probabilistic estimate of project completion.

Combining these techniques can enhance project management practices and

improve the likelihood of project success.
Practice Question
 ABU Construction Company Plc. is to undertake construction of a flyover bridge at
Agoro Roundabout. The project is expected to assist the Kaduna State government
in decongesting the traffic flow around the market area. To achieve this, necessary
preliminary studies have been conducted and the following activities, their times
(weeks) and the order of precedence have been identified and presented in the
following Slide.
i. Draw a network diagram to represent the project.
ii. Round off the times elapsed to the nearest week and determine the critical path
for the project.
iii. What are the chances of completing the flyover in 4 weeks ahead of schedule?
iv. What are the chances of completing the flyover in 3 weeks behind schedule?
The Data

Activity Predecessor Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Time

  Time Time

A -- 6 10 13
B -- 5 8 10
C A 3 5 6
D A 8 9 11
E B, C 4 6 8
F A 6 10 12
G B, C 6 9 11
H D, E 3 6 8
I H 5 6 10
J H 3 7 9
K F, I 4 6 10
L G, J 5 7 9
M K,L 4 6 8
Example

Draw a network diagram for the project whose activities and their predecessor
relationships are given below:
Thank you