CHAPTER- 6

NETWORK MODEL
 Learning objectives

After going through this chapter, you should be able to:

• Define network, project management and network diagram
• State and explain the characteristics and phases of project
management
• Describe the major difference between PERT and CPM
• Explain the major conventions of network and steps to draw
the network diagram
• Demonstrate project time cost trade-off
 Introduction

Network model is a technique used for planning and scheduling large

projects in the field of construction, maintenance, fabrication, purchasing
computer system, distribution, transportation, facility allocation, and many
others.
There are several reasons for the wide range of applications:
• First many problems that can be formulated as LP models can also be
visualized with the context of networks.
• Second network models of problems are often easier to formulate than
alternative LP models of the same problem.
• Third the pictorial representation of network models makes them relatively
easy to understand.
• Finally the advances in network optimization procedure have resulted in
some amazing results in solving network model.
Network diagram is a practical representation of the various events and activities.
Network modeling: Techniques that enable complex projects to be scheduled, taking
into account the precedence of each activity.
A project is a set of proposals for the investment of resources in to a clearly identified
set of actions that are expected to produce future benefits that exceeds costs.
A project is a combination of interrelated activities all of which must be executed in a
certain order for its completion.
Examples of a project:
• New business establishment
• Expansion of existing business
• Launching new product
• Cost reduction project
• Total Quality of Management (TQM), etc.
Characteristics of a project

1. The duration of a project lasts long

2. A project is complex in nature involving many interrelated
activities and participants
3. Delay in completion time may be very costly
4. Project activities are sequential
 Phases of project management

Project management consists of three phases:

1. project planning phase
In order to visualize the sequencing or preceding requirements of the activities in a project, it is helpful to draw
a network diagram using the following steps:
1) Identify various activities (tasks or work elements) to be performed in the project, that is, develop a
breakdown structure (WBS).
2) Determine requirement of resources such as man, material, machines, money, etc. for carrying out
activities listed above.
3) Assign responsibility for each work package (the smallest work effort defined in a project)
4) Allocate resources to work package.
5) Estimate cost and time at various level of project completion.
6) Develop work performance criteria
7) Establish control channels for project personnel.
 Phases of project management Cont’d

2. Project scheduling phase

Scheduling of the project has the following steps:
1) Identify all people who will be responsible for each task.
2) Estimate the expected duration of each activity, taking in to consideration the
resource required for their execution in most economic manner.
3) Specify the interrelationship (i.e. precedence relationship) among various activities.
4) Develop a network diagram showing the sequential interrelationship between
various activities.
5) Based on the time estimate, calculate the total project duration, identify critical
path; calculate floats; carry out resource smoothing (leveling) exercise for critical
(or scarce) resources taking in to account resource constraints if any.
 Phases of project management Cont’d

3. Project control phase

It refers to evaluating actual progress (status) against the plan. If
significant difference are observed then the scheduling and resource
allocation decision are changed to update and revise the uncompleted
part of the project.
There are two basic planning and control technique that utilize network to
complete predetermined Project or schedule. These are:
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and
• Critical Path Method (CPM).
 PERT

PERT was created as a means to plan and accelerate the development of the
Polaris Ballistic Missile.
In USA the defense department developed a nuclear missile to be launched
from beneath the ocean's surface by a mobile submarine, which would be an
effective deterrent against aggression by an enemy. This paved way to plan
how to design, develop and plan the different stages in the production of a
missile and how quickly this task could be completed. A planning and
scheduling technique named PERT gave the answer to these questions.
In any new venture, uncertainties are bound to creep in. PERT incorporated
these uncertainties into a model, which provides a reasonable answer to these
uncertainties.
PERT is an event-oriented technique. By 'event' we mean reaching a certain
stage of completion of the project.
PERT is useful in research and developmental projects
 CPM

• CPM is the amount needed to complete the various activities is assumed to

be known with certainty.
• The direct costs for the activities increase and hence the cost of the project
also increases. By reducing the activity duration of some or all possible
completed ahead of the schedule. This will naturally reduce the overhead
cost for the entire project. On one hand the direct expenses increase, if we
shorten the activity duration, but, the indirect expenses for the project are
reduced. We have to strike a balance or an optimum time schedule, or at
least cost schedule is to be obtained. This is the purpose of the Critical Path
Method.
• CPM is not concerned with uncertain job times as in PERT.
• CPM is mostly used in construction projects, or in situations already
handled, so that the details like the normal completion time, crash duration
and cost of crashing are already known.
 .
The following are the suggested applications when PERT or CPM is found
useful.
• The construction of a building or of a highway.
• Planning and launching a new product.
• Scheduling maintenance for a project.
• The manufacture and assembly of a large machine tool.
• To conduct a music or drama festival.
• Preparation of budget for a company.
 Basic Difference between PERT and CPM

PERT
1) It assumes a probability distribution for the duration of each activity. Thus completion time
estimates for all of the activities are needed
2) To perform PERT analysis on a project, the emphasis is given on the completion of a task rather
than the activities required to perform to reach a particular event or task. Thus, it is also called
event-oriented technique.
3) It is used for one time project involving activities of none-repetitive nature (i.e. activities which
may never have been performed before) in which time estimates are uncertain, such as
redesigning an assembly line or installing a new information system.
4) It helps in identifying critical areas in a project so that necessary adjustment can be made to meet
the schedule completion date of the project.
CPM
5) This technique was developed in connection with a construction and maintenance project in which
duration of each activity was known with certainty.
6) It is suitable for establishing a trade-off for optimum balancing between schedule time and cost of
the project.
7) It is used for completion of project involving activities of repetitive nature.
 Network Conventions

1. The project can be sub-divided into a set of predictable independent activities each
of which has a clear beginning and ending.
2. Each activity can be sequenced as to its predecessors or successors.
3. The network is not cyclical
•i.e: Each activity is executed once and only once during the life of the project.
4. Activity times may be estimated either as a single point estimate (CPM) or as a 3-
point estimate (PERT)
5. The duration of the activities is independent of each other.
 Basic terms

Network: it is the graphic representation of logically and sequentially

connected arrows and nods representing activities and events of a project.
Networks are also called arrow diagram.
Events: Events of the network represent protect milestone, such as the
start or the completion of an activity (task) or activities, and occur at a
particular instant of time at which some specific part of the project has
been or is to be achieved.
An event is a point in time that marks the beginning or ending of activity.
Events are commonly represented by circles (nodes) in the network
diagram.
 Basic terms Cont’d
The events can be further classified into the following two categories (types):
i. Merge event: An event which represents the joint completion of more than one activity is known
as merge event.

Event

Fig: merge event

ii. Burst event: An event which represents the initiation (beginning) of more than one activity is
known as burst event.

Event

Fig: Burst event

Events in the network diagram are identified by numbers. Each event should be identified by a
number higher than that allotted to its immediately preceding event to indicate progress of work.
The numbering of events in the network diagram must start from left (start of the project) to right
(completion of the project) and top to the bottom. Care should be taken that there is no duplication
in the numbering.
 Basic terms Cont’d
Activities:
Activity is a time-consuming job or task that is a key subpart of the total project.
Activities of the network represent project operations or tasks to be conducted. As
such each activity except dummy consumes time and resources and incurs costs.
An arrow is commonly used to represent an activity with its head indicating the
direction of progress in the project.
Activities are identified by the numbers of their starting (tail or initial) event and
ending (head or terminals) event. An arrow (i,j) extended between two events; the
tail event i represents the start of the activity and the head event j, represents the
completion of the activity.

Starting Event Completion Event

Fig: Activity -Node relationship in network diagram
 Basic terms Cont’d

Activities can be further classified into the following three categories:

i. Predecessor activity: Predecessor activity is an activity which must be completed before one or more
other activities start.
ii. Successor activity: Successor activity is an activity which started immediately after one or more of
other activities are completed.
iii.Dummy activity: Dummying activity is an activity which does not consume either any resource or time.
•A dummy activity in the network is added only to represent the given precedence relationships among
activities of the project and is needed when
a) Two or more parallel activities in a project have same head and tail events, or
b) Two or more activities have some (but not all) of their immediate predecessor activities in common.
A dummy activity is depicted by dotted line in the network diagram.

Network model use the following two type of network to show precedence requirements of the activities in the
project.
Activity-on-Node (AON) Network in this type of precedence network each node (or circle) represent a specific task
while the arcs represent the ordering between tasks. AON network diagrams place the activities when the nodes
and the arrows are used to indicate sequencing requirement. Generally, these diagrams have no particular starting
and ending nods for the whole project. The lack of dummy activities in this diagram always makes them easier to
draw and to interpret.
Activity-on-Arrow (AOR) network: in this type of precedence network at the end of the activity arrow is a node (or
circle). This node represents points in time or instance, when an activity is starting or ending. The arrow itself
represents the passage of time required for that activity to be performed.
These diagrams have a single beginning node from which all activities with
no predecessor may start. The diagram then works its way from left to
right, ends with a single ending node, where all activities with no followers
come together.
Three important advantage of using AOA are:
a) Many computer programs are based on AOA network
b) AOA diagram can be superimposed on a time scale with the arrows
drawn, the correct length to indicate the time requirement.
c) AOA diagram give a better sense of the flow of time throughout the
project.
The following diagram illustrates AON and AOA.
AOA network AON network

1. Activity A A A

A B
2. B must follow A A B
B
A
3 C must follow B
C
A&B C
A
A C
4 C must follow A, A C
and D must follow
A&B
B D B D
Rules of Network Construction
Following are some of the rules which have to be followed while constructing a
network:
1. In network diagram, arrows represent activities and circles the events. The length of
an arrow is of no significance.
2. Each activity should be represented by one arrow and must start and end in a circle
called event. The tail of an activity represents the start and head is the completion
of work.
3. The event numbered 1 denotes start of the project and is called initial event. All
activities emerging (or taking off) from event 1 should not be preceded by any other
activity or activities. Event carrying the highest number denotes the completion
events. A network should have only one initial event and only one terminal event.
4. The general rule of numbering the event is that the number at an activity’s head
should always be larger than that at its tail. That is, events should be numbered
such that for each activity (i, j), i< j.
5. An activity must be uniquely identified by its starting and completion
event which implies that
a) An event number should not get repeated or duplicated
b) Two activities should not be identified by the same completion event
c) Activities must be represented either by their symbols or by the corresponding
ordered pair of starting-completion events.
6. The logical sequence (or interrelationship ) between activities must
follow the following rules :
d) An event cannot occur until all the incoming activities into it have been
completed.
e) An activity cannot start unless all the preceding activities, on which it depends,
have been completed.
f) Though a dummy activity does not consume ether any resource or time, even
then it has to follow the rules 6(a) and 6(b).
 7. Errors and Dummies In Network

Looping and Dangling

Looping (cycling) and dangling are considered as faults in a network. Therefore, these must be
avoided.
1. Looping
A case of endless loop in a network which is also known as looping is shown in figure below,
where activities A, B, and C from a cycle

Fig: Looping in network diagram

In this case it is difficult to number three events associated with activity A, B, and C so as to
satisfy rule 6 of constructing the network.
 Looping and Dangling Cont’d

2. Dangling
A case of disconnect activity before the completion of all activities which
is also known as dangling.

Fig: Dangling in network diagram

In this case, activity C does not give any result as per the rules of the
network. The dangling may be avoided by adopting rule 5 of constructing
the network.
i. Dummy or Redundant Activity.
The following is one of the cases in which the use of dummy activity may
help in drawing the network correctly as per the various rules
When two or more parallel activities in a project have the same head and
tail event
i.e: two events are connected with more than one arrow.
In figure a (next slide), activities B and C have a common predecessor
activity A. At the same time, they have activity D as a common successor.
To get the correct network a dummy activity for the ending event of B to
show that D may not start before both B and C are completed is shown in
figure b). A dummy which is used in such a case to establish relationship
proper logical relationships is also known as logic dummy activity.
 Fig: b) Dummy Activity
Fig: a) Parallel Activities
 Example 1

An assembly is to be made from two parts X and Y. Both parts must be turned on a lathe and Y need not be polished. The sequence of
activities together with their predecessors is given below:
Activity Description Predecessor Activity

A Open work order _

B Get material for X A

C Get material for Y A

D Turn X on Lathe B

E Turn Y on Lathe B, C

F Polish Y E

G Assemble X and Y D, F

H Pack G

Required: Draw a network diagram for the project

Solution
The network diagram for the project is show below:

B 3 D
1 A 2
Dummy
6 G 7 H 8
C
F
4 E 5

Fig: Network Diagram

 Example 2

Listed in the table are the activities and sequencing necessary for a maintenance job on the heat exchangers in a refinery.
_______________________________________________________________________

Activity Description Predecessor Activity

A Dismantle pipe connections -

B Dismantle header, closure, and floating front A

C Remove tube bundle B

D Clean bolts B

E Clean header and floating head front B

F Clean tube bundle C

G Clean shell C

H Replace tube bundle F, G

I Prepare shell pressure test D, E, H

J Prepare tube pressure test and reassemble I

Required: Draw a network diagram for the project

Solution

5
F D2
C 4
A 2 B 3
G 6
1 H J
D 8 I 9 1
E 0

D1
7

Fig: Network Diagram

 Exercise 1

The following table gives the activities in a construction project:

Activity Immediate Predecessor
A -
B -
C -
D A
E C
F A
G D, B, E
Required: Draw an arrow diagram for the project
 Exercise 2

A project has the following activities. The relationships among the activities are
given below. Construct the network.
A is the first operation.
B and C can be performed parallel and are immediate successors to A.
D, E and F follow B.
G follows E.
H follows D, but it cannot start till E is complete.
I and J succeed G.
F and J precede K.
H and I precede L.
M succeeds L and K.
The last operation N succeeds M and C.
 Critical path Analysis

The objective of critical path analysis is to estimate the total project duration &
to assign starting & finishing times to all activities involved in the project. This
helps in checking actual progress against the scheduled duration of the project.
The duration of individual activities may be uniquely determined (in case of
CPM) or may involve the three time estimates (in case of PERT) out of which
the expected duration of an activity is computing. Having done this, the
following factors should be known to prepare project scheduling.
i. Total completion time of the project
ii. Earliest & latest start time of each activity
iii. Float for each activity i.e. the amount of time by which the completion of
an activity can be delayed without delaying the total project completion
time.
iv. Critical activities & critical path.
•Consider the following notation for the purpose of calculating various times of event & activities.

A. =Earliest occurrence time of an event, i. It is the earliest time at which an event can occur without affecting the
total project time.
B. =Latest occurrence time of event i. It is the latest time at which an event can occur without affecting the total
project time
C. =Earliest start time for activity (i, j). It is the time at which the activity can start without affecting the total project
time
D. =Latest start time for activity (i, j). It is the latest possible time by which an activity must start without affecting the
total project time
E. =Earliest finish time for activity (i, j ). It is the earliest possible time at which an activity can finis without affecting
the total project time.
F. =Latest finish time for activity (i, j). It is the latest time by which an activity must get completed without delaying
the project completion.
G. Duration of activity ( i, j ).
 • Expected time estimate

In a network diagram, there should only be one initial event & one final
event, while other events are numbered consecutively with integers 1, 2…
n such that , for any two event i&j connected by an activity which starts at
i & finish at j.

For calculating the above mentioned times, there are two methods; namely;

1) Forward pass method &

2) Backward pass method
•Forward Pass Method (For Earliest Event Time)
•In this methods calculation begin from the initial event 1, proceed through the network visiting
event in an increasing order of event number & end to the final event, say N. At each event we
calculate earliest occurrence event time (E) & earliest start & finish time for each activity that
begins at that event. When calculations end at the final event N, its earliest occurrence time gives
the earliest possible completion time of the entire project.

•The method may be summarized as follows:

1) Set the earliest occurrence time of initial event 1 to zero, i.e.

2) Calculate earliest start time for each activity that begins at event i(=1) This is equal to earliest
occurrence time of event, i (tail event). That is, for all activities (i, j ) starting at event i.
3) Calculate the earliest finish time of each activity that begins at event i. This equal to the earliest
start time of the activity plus the duration of the activity. That is, for all activities ( i j ) beginning
at event
4) Proceed to the next event, say j; j > j
5) Calculate the earliest occurrence time for the event j. This is the maximum of the earliest finish
times of all activities ending into that event, i.e.
• for all immediate predecessor activities.

6) If j = N (final event ), then earliest finish time for the project, i.e. the earliest occurrence time
for the final event is given by
• =, for all terminal activities.

• = max { -1+} & stop the method.

Backward Pass Method (For Latest Allowable Event Time)

In this method calculations begin from final event N, proceed through the network visiting events in the
decreasing order of event number & end at the initial event 1. At each event, we calculate the latest
occurrence event time (L) for the corresponding event, latest finish & start time for each activity that is
terminating at the event, such that the earliest finish time for the project remains the same. The method may
be summarized as follows.

1. Set the latest occurrence of last event N equal to its earliest occurrence tome ( known from forward pass
method), that is
•

2. Calculate latest finish time of each activity which ends at event j. This is equal to latest occurrence time
of final event N. That is,
=, for all activities (i, j) ending at even j.
3. Calculate the latest start times of all activities ending at j. I t is obtained by subtracting the
duration of the activity from the latest finish time of the activity, That is,
= –, for each activity (i, j) ending at Event j,

4. Proceed backward to the event in the sequence that decreases j by 1.

5. Calculate the latest occurrence time of event i (i<j). This is the minimum of the latest start times
of all activities starting from that event. That is,

6. If j = 1 (initial event), then the latest finish time for project, i.e. latest occurrence time for the
initial event is given by.
For all immediate successor activities

& stop the method

 Float (or slack) of an Activity and Event

The float (slack) or free time is the length of time to watch a non-critical
activity and/or an event can be delayed the total project completion time.
The float of an activity is the amount of time by which it is possible to
delay its completion time without affecting the total project completion
time.
1. Event Float
The float (also sometimes called ‘slack’) of an event is the difference
between its latest time (Li) and its earliest time (Ei).That is

It is a measure of how much later than expected a particular event could

occur without delaying the completion of the entire project.
2. Activity Float

It is the float (or slack) in the activity time estimates.

Types of activity floats:

a. Total Float

•It is the difference between the time available to perform the activity (measured from the earliest start
time to the latest finish time) and the expected completion time of the activity. That is, for activity (i, j),
the total float is given by

𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑭𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒕 (𝑻𝑭𝒊𝒋 ) = (𝑳𝒋 − 𝑬𝒊 ) – 𝒕𝒊𝒋

= 𝑳𝑺𝒊𝒋 – 𝑬𝑺𝒊𝒋

= 𝑳𝑭𝒊𝒋 – 𝑬𝑭𝒊𝒋
 b. Free Float

For calculating the total float, only a particular activity was considered with respect to its tail
and head event times or by considering latest start and finish time of an activity with respect to
its earliest start and finish time. However, it may be needed to know that how much an
activity’s scheduling time can be increased or decreased without changing its immediate
successor activities.

The time by which the completion of an activity can be delayed beyond its earliest finish time
without affecting the earliest start time of a succeeding activity is called free float.

 
•Independent float: it is the amount of acceptable daily in the completion of an activity so that it neither affects its
predecessor nor the successor activities. Thus, independent float is the amount of time available when presiding
activities take place at their latest permissible time and all the following activities can still take place at their earliest
possible times.

Independent float
The negative value of independent float is considered zero.
Remarks:

1. Since latest event time is always greater than or equal to the earliest event time (i.e Ei(TFij )> (FF 〗 ij).
This implies the value of free float may range from zero to total float and can never exceed total float value.
2. The calculation of various floats can help the decision-maker in identifying the underutilized resources, flexibility in
the total schedule and possibilities of redeployment of resources.
3. Once the float of an activity is disturbed, float of all other activities of the project is changed and should be
recalculated.
 4. If total float value is

a. Negative (i.e L-E<0),

-resources are not adequate and activity may not finish in time

-Induce extra resources or certain activities (also called critical activities) need crashing to reduce
negative float value.

b. Zero (i.e L-E=0)

-Resources are just sufficient to complete the activity. Any delay in activity execution will necessarily
increase the project cost.

c. Positive (i.e L-E>0)

-Resources are surplus

-Surplus resources can be deployed elsewhere or execution of the activity can be delayed.
 Critical Path

Path: A path is unbroken chain of activities that connects form the start node to the end node (terminal node).

Certain activities in a network diagram of a project are called critical activities because delay in their execution will cause
further delay in the project completion time. Thus, all activities having zero total float value are identified as critical activities.

The critical path is the continuous chain of critical activities in a network diagram. It is the longest path starting from first to
the last event & is shown by the thick line or double lines in the network diagram most of the time. The length of the critical
path is the sum of the individual times of the critical activities living on it & defines the minimum time required to complete
the project.

• The critical path on a network diagram can be identified as:

i. For all activities (i, j) lying on the critical path the E –values & L-values for tail & head events are equal That is,
ii.On critical path
Finding the critical path is important for directing decision-makers attention & effort to critical activities where improvement
will pay the largest dividend.
 Example

An established company has decided to add a new product to its line. It

will buy the product form manufacturing concern, package is & sell it to a
number of distributes selected on a geographical basis. Market research has
identified the volume expected & the size of sales force required. The steps
Activity Description Time (Week)
A Organize sales office 6
B Hire Salesman 4
C Train salesman 7
D Select advertising agency 2
E Plan advertising campaign 4
F Conduct 10
G Design package 2
H Setup packaging facilities 10
I Package initial Stocks 6
J Order Stock from manufacture 13
K Select distributors 9
L Sell to distributors 3
M Ship stocks 5
Required:
a) Draw the an arrow diagram
b) Indicate the critical path; the critical activities & the total project time
c) For each non-critical activity, find the total float
Solution: (a). the arrow diagram for the given project along with E-values and L-values is
shown in the following diagram.

E4=13
4 I (6)
L4=14
J (13)
H (10)
M (5)
G (2) 9
1 3 10
o0
A (6) 6 E9=20
E1=0 E3=2 E10=25
K (9) L9=20
L1=0 L3=4 E6=17 L10=25
C (7) F (10)
2 5 L6=17
B (4) E5=10
E2=6
L5=10 8
D (2)
L2=6 7 E (4)
E8=12
E7=8
L8=15
Forward pass method

Determine the earliest start time Ei and latest finish Lj for each event by processing as
follows.

E1=0 E2= E1+t1, 2=0+6

E3= E1+t1, 3=0+2=2 E 4=Max {E1+t14; E3+t3,4 } i=1, 3

E5= E2+t2, 5=6+4=10

E6=Max {Ei + ti, 6} =Max {E2+t2, 6; E5+t5, 6} Max {0+13, 2+10}=13

𝑖 = 2, 5 E8= E7+t7, 8=8+4=12

Max {6+9; 10+7}=17 E10=Max{Ei+ti, 10]

E7= E2+t2,7=6+2=8 i=8,9

E9=Max {Ei+ti, 9} =Max {E4+t4, 9;E6+t6, 9} =Max {E8+t8, 10; E9+t9, 10}

𝑖 = 4, 6 =Max {12+10; 20+5}=25

=Max {13+6; 17+3} =20

Backward pass method

L10=E10=25 L 9=L10 – t9,10=25-5=20

L8=L10 – t8,10=25-10=15 L7=L8 – t7,8=15-4=11

L6- t6,9=20-3=17 L 5=L6 – t5,6=17-7=10

L4=L9-t4,9=20-6=14 L 3=L4 – t3,4=14-10=4

L2=min {Lj- t2,j} L2=min {Lj- t1,j}

J=5, 6, 7 j=2, 3, 4

=min {L5, - t2, 5; L6, t2, 6;L7-t2, 7} =min{L2,- t1, 2; L3, t1, 3;L4-t1, 4}

=min {10-4; 17-9; 11-2} =6 =min {6- 6, 5; 4-2,; 14-13}=0

 B. The vertical path in the network diagram above has been shown by thick lines by joining
all those events where two values Ei & Lj are equal. The critical path of the project is: 1-
2-5-6-9-10 the critical activities are A, B, C, L&M. the total project time is 25 weeks
C. For each non-critical activity, the total float is:
Earliest time Last time Float
Activity Duration Start Finish Start Finish Total Free
(i,j) (tii) (Ei) (Ei+tij) (Lj-tij) (Lj) [(Lj-tij)Ej] (Ej-Ei)-tji

1-3 2 0 2 2 4 2 0
1-4 13 0 13 1 14 1 0
2-6 9 6 15 8 17 2 2
2-7 2 6 8 9 11 3 0
3-4 10 2 12 4 14 2 1
4-9 6 13 19 14 20 1 1
7-8 4 8 13 11 15 3 0
8-10 10 12 22 15 25 3 3
 Remark:

 What does the critical path really mean?

- The critical path shows the shortest time in which a project can be completed. Even though
the critical path is the longest path, it represents the shortest time it takes to complete a
project.
- There can be more than one critical path on a project. Project managers should closely
monitor performance of activities on the critical path to avoid late project completion. If
there is more than one critical path, project managers must keep their eyes on all of them
Example2. The following table gives the activities of a construction project and duration.

Activity 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-4 3-4 4-5

Duration (days) 20 25 10 12 6 10

(i) Draw the network for the project.

(ii) Find the critical path.

(iii) Find the total, free and independent floats of each activity.
 Solution: The first step is to draw the network and fix early start and early finish schedule
and then late start-late finish schedule.

12 E1=24
E1=0 20 2
E1=36
L1=36
L1=20 E1=20
4 L1=46 5
1 15 10
6
L1=30
25
E1=5 3 E1=30
L1=30 L1=36
 Activity Total Slack Slack Independent Slack

1-2 0 0 0

1-3 5 5 5

2-3 0 0 0

2-4 4 4 4

3-4 0 0 0

4-5 0 0 0

To find the critical path, connect activities with 0 total slack and we get 1-2-3-4-5 as the critical path.
Check with alternate paths.
1-2-4-5 = 42
1-2-3-4-5 = 46* (critical path)1-3-4-5 = 41
 PERT Networks

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) - is a network analysis technique used to
estimate project duration when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual
activity duration estimates. PERT applies the critical path method to a weighted average
duration estimate.
If the duration of activities in a project is uncertain than activity scheduling calculations are
done by using the expected value of the durations. However, such expected duration estimated
may not be given an accurate answer. Thus, rather than estimating directly the expected
completion time of an activity, three values are considered in PERT.
The three time estimates are:
1. Optimistic time (to or a): This is the shortest possible time to perform an activity, assuming
that everything goes well.
2. Pessimistic time (tp or b): This is the maximum (longest) time that is required to perform an
activity, under extremely bad conditions. However, such conditions do not include acts of
God like earthquakes, flood, etc.
1.
2. Most likely time (tm or m): This is the most realistic time to complete the activity.
Statistically, it is the modal values of duration of the activity i.e. consider the time estimate
under the normal situation.
The β distribution is not necessarily systematic; the degree of skewness depends on the
location of 𝑡𝑚 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝑜 and𝑡𝑝 . Thus the range specified by the optimistic time (t0) and
pessimistic time (tp) estimates is assumed to enclose every possible estimates of the
duration of the activity. The most likely time (tm) estimate may not coincide with the
midpoint (〖to+ tp)/2 and may occur to its left or its right as shown in the following figure.
P r o b a b ility

‫ݐ‬௢ ‫ݐ‬௠ ଵ ‫ݐ‬௠ ଶ ‫ݐ‬௣ Activity duration

In beta distribution the midpoint (𝑡𝑜 + 𝑡𝑝 )/2 is assumed to weight half as much as the most likely
point (𝑡𝑚 ). Thus the expected or mean (te) or μ) value of the captivity duration can be approximated
as the arithmetic mean of (to+ tp)/2 and 2tm. That is

Expected activity time (te) = ((to+ tp)/2+2tm)/3 = ((to+ 4tm)+tp)/6

Estimating the variance is apparently based on an analogy to the normal distribution where 99%
of the area under normal curve is within ± 3σ from the mean or fall within the range approximately
6 standard deviation in length, therefore to, tp or range 𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜 enclose about 6 standard
deviation of a symmetric distribution, thus, if σ denotes standard deviation, then

6𝜎 ≡ 𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑟 𝜎 = 𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜/6

Variance of activity time, 𝜎^2 = [1/6(𝑡𝑝 − 𝑡𝑜)]^2

Standard deviation, σ = ξ Variance

Estimation of project completion time

As we are expecting variability in the activity duration, the total project may not be completed
exactly in time. Thus, it is necessary to calculate the probability of actually meeting the schedule
time to the project as well as activities.

The probability distribution of time for completing an event can be approximated by the normal
distribution due to central limit theorem. Thus, the probability of completing the project by
schedule time (𝑇𝑠 ) is given by

Prob(Z= te/σe )

Where 𝑡𝑒 = expected completion time of the project

Z= number so standard deviations the scheduled time or target date lies away from
the mean or expected date.

In order to find out the probability of completing the project in some given time, we shall consider
only the expected length of the critical path and its variance. The expected time of the project can
be calculated by adding the expected time of each activity lying on the critical path can be known
by adding variance of critical activity.
 Example1.

1. A project is represented by a network shown below & has the following data
Task: A B C D E F G H I

Optimistic time 5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3

Pessimistic time: 10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5

Most Likely time: 8 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4

 Determine the following

a. Expected task time & their variance

b. The earliest & latest expected times to reach each event
c. The critical path

F
I
3 6 7
B
E H

A D
1 2 5
G

C
4

d. The probability of an event occurring at the expected completion date if the original
scheduled time of completing the project is 41.5 weeks.
e. The duration of the project that will have 95% chance of being completed.
Solution (a) using the following formula, the expected activity time (te) or μ) and variance
(σ^2) is given in the following table.

𝑡𝑒 = ((to+ 4tm)+tp)/6 and σ^2=[1/6(tp- to)]^2

Activity to tp tm te= ((to+ 4tm)+tp)/6 σ^2=[1/6(tp- to)]^2

1-2 5 10 8 7.8 0.694

1-3 18 22 20 20.0 0.444

1-4 26 40 33 33.0 5.444

2-5 16 20 18 18.0 0.444

2-6 15 25 20 20.0 2.778

3-6 6 12 9 9.0 1.000

4-7 7 12 10 9.8 0.694

5-7 7 9 8 8.0 0.111

6-7 3 5 4 4.0 0.111

 (b) The earliest and latest estimated time presented in the following graph.
E6=29
E3=20
L6=38.8
L3=29.8
F (9) E7=42.8
I (4)
3 6 7
E5=25.8 L7=42.8
E (20) H (8)
B (20)
E2=7.8 L5=34.8
A (7.8) D (18)
1 2 5
L2=16.8
G (9.8)
E1=0

L1=0 C (33)
4
E4=33

L4=33
(c). the critical path is shown by thick line in the above figure where E values and L values
are the same. The critical path is 1-4-7 and the critical completion time for the project is
42.8 week.

(d) the last event 7 will occur only after 42.8 weeks. For this, we require only the duration
of critical activity. This will help us in calculating the standard of the duration of the last
event.

Expected length of critical path= 33+9.8=42.8

Variance of critical path length = 5.429+0.694=6.123

It is given that Ts=41.5, Te=42.8 and𝜎𝑒 = ξ 6.123 = 2.474. Therefore probability of

𝑡𝑠 − 𝑡𝑒
meeting the scheduled time is given by Probቀ𝑍 ≤ 𝜎𝑒
ቁ=prob (Z≤-0.5) =0.3 from normal

distribution table

Thus, the probability that the project can be completed in less than or equal to 41.5 weeks
is 0.30. In other words, the probability that the project well gate delayed beyond 41.5 weeks
is 70%

(e) Given that Prob(Z≤ ts- te/σe )=0.95

But Z0.95=1.46, from normal distribution table. Thus

1.64= ( (Ts-42.8)/2.47)or Ts= 1.64 × 2.474 + 42.8 = 46.85 weeks.

 Project Time-Cos t Trade-Off

The project completion time can be reduced by reducing (crashing) the

normal completion time or critical activities. The reduction in normal time
of completion will increase the total budget of the project. However, the
decision maker always looks trade-off between total cost of project and
total time required to complete it.
Project crashing
Crashing is employed to reduce the project completion time by spending
extra resource (cost). However, as shown in the figure beyond point A,
cost increases more quickly when time is reduced. Similarly, beyond point
B, the time increases while the cost decrease. Since for technical reasons
time may not be reduced indefinitely, therefore, we call this limit as crash
point. There is also a cost efficient duration called normal point. Thus
extending the activity duration beyond normal point may increase costs.
For simplicity the relationship between normal time and cost as well as crash time and cost for
an activity is assumed to be linear instead of being concave and/or discrete. Thus the crash cost
per unit of time can be estimated by computing the relative change in cost (cost slope) per unit
change in time.
Remark: crashing an activity means performing it in the shortest technically possible time by
allocating to it necessary resources.
Time cost trade-off procedure
The method of establishing Time cost trade-off procedure for the completion of a project can
be summarized as follows:
Step1 determine the normal project completion time and associated critical path for the
following two cases.
a) When all critical activities are completed with their normal time. This provides the starting
point for crashing analysis.
b) When all critical activities are crashed. This provides the stopping point for crashing analysis.
Step2. Identify critical activity and compute the cost slope for each of these by using the
relationship
Step3. For reducing total project completion time, identify and crash an
activity time on the critical path with lower cost slope value to the point
where
a)Another path in the network become critical, or
b) The activity has been crash to its lowest time.
Step4. If the critical path under crashing is still critical, return to step
three. However, if due to crashing of an activity time in step 3, other
path(s) in the network also become critical, then identify and crash the
activities(s) on the critical path (s) with the minimum joint cost slope.
Steps 5 terminate the procedure when each critical activity has been
crashed to its lowest possible time. Determine total project cost (indirect
cost plus direct cost) corresponding to different project durations.
Example1. The following table gives data on normal time, and cost and crash time and cost for a project

Activities Normal Crash

. Time (weeks) Cost (Birr) Time Cost (Birr)
(weeks)

1-2 3 300 2 400

2-3 3 30 3 30

2-4 7 420 5 580

2-5 9 720 7 810

3-5 5 250 4 300

4-5 0 0 0 0

5-6 6 320 4 410

6-7 4 400 3 470

6-8 13 780 10 900

7-8 10 1000 9 1200

a) Draw the network and identify the critical path with a double line.
b) What are the normal project duration and associated cost?
c) Find out the total float associated with each activity.
d) Crash the relevant activities systematically and determine the optimal
project completion time and cost.
END