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4-Probability Lec1 Said

1. The document defines key probability concepts like sample space, events, simple and compound events, and complementary events. It also discusses classical and empirical definitions of probability. 2. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to calculate classical probabilities of events based on the sample space, including probabilities of complementary events. 3. The empirical probability of events is defined based on observed frequencies from experiments, and an example calculates probabilities of blood types based on a sample.

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Laith Dermosh
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34 views31 pages

4-Probability Lec1 Said

1. The document defines key probability concepts like sample space, events, simple and compound events, and complementary events. It also discusses classical and empirical definitions of probability. 2. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to calculate classical probabilities of events based on the sample space, including probabilities of complementary events. 3. The empirical probability of events is defined based on observed frequencies from experiments, and an example calculates probabilities of blood types based on a sample.

Uploaded by

Laith Dermosh
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Statistics Sat 100

spring 2022
Probability Theory I

Lecture 1
Basic Concepts
Objectives
• At the end of this lecture, we will be
able to

1. Define sample spaces and events.


2. Define complementary events.
3. Find the classical and empirical probabilities
of an event.
Probability Experiments
• A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
• E.g.:
• Flipping a coin once.
• Rolling a die once.
• Rolling a die twice.
• etc.
Sample Spaces
• The set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment is called a sample
space.
• You may think of a sample space as the
set of all values that a variable may
assume.
• We are going to denote the sample space
by S.
Examples
• Experiment: Tossing a coin once.
S = {H, T}
• Experiment: Rolling a die once.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Experiment: Tossing a coin twice.
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
• Experiment: Rolling a die twice.
S = {(1,1), (1,2), . . . . . , (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), . . . . , (2,6),
…………………………...
(6,1), (6,2), …… , (6,6)}
Example
• Find the sample space for the gender of
the child if a family has three children.
Example
• Find the sample space for the gender of
the children if a family has three children.

S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG,


GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}
Events
• An event, E, is a set of outcomes of a
probability experiment.
E  S.
• If |E| = 1, then E is a simple event.
• If |E| > 1, then E is a compound event.
• If |E| = 0, then E is an impossible event.
Examples
• E is the event of getting an odd number when rolling a
single die.
E = {1, 3, 5}
– This is a compound event.
• E is the event of getting an odd number greater than 4
when rolling a single die.
E = {5}
– This is a simple event.
• E is the event of getting a multiple of 7 when rolling a
single die.
E={}
– This is an impossible event.
Probability of an Event
• The probability of an event is a measure
of the likelihood of the event’s occurring.
• There are three ways to interpret (define)
probability:
1. Classical probability.
2. Empirical probability.
3. Subjective probability.
Classical Probability
• The classical probability, P(E), of an
event E is given by

E
P( E ) 
S
Impossible and Certain Events
E  S
E  S
Thus,
0  P( E )  1

• P({ })=0 ({ } is the impossible event)


• P(S) =1 (S is the certain event)
Example 1
If a family has three children, find the
probability that they are two girls and one
boy.
Example 1
If a family has three children, find the
probability that they are two girls and one
boy.
• S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG,
GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}
• E = {BGG, GBG, GGB}
• P(E) = 3 / 8
Example 2
A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find
the probabilities of the following events.
1. Getting a queen.
2. Getting a club.
3. Getting a number.
Solution
• Note that |S| = 52
1. E1 is the event of getting a queen.
P(E1) = 4 / 52 = 1 / 13
2. E2 is the event of getting a club.
P(E2) = 13 / 52 = 1 / 4
3. E3 is the event of getting a number
P(E3) = 40 / 52 = 10 / 13
Example 3
Two dice are rolled. Find the probabilities of
the following events.

1. Getting two even numbers.


2. Getting two numbers whose sum is 7.
The Sample Space is
Solution
• Note that |S| = 36.
1. E1 is the event of getting two even
numbers.
– Note: even numbers on a die are 2, 4, and 6.

P(E) = 9 / 36 = 1 / 4
Solution
E2 is the event of getting two numbers
whose sum is 7.
7 = 1 + 6 (or 6 + 1)
= 2 + 5 (or 5 + 2)
= 3 + 4 (or 4 + 3)

P(E) = 6 / 36 = 1 / 6
Complementary Events
• The complement of an event E is defined
by

E SE
Where “–” denotes set difference.
Probability of
Complementary Events

SE
P( E ) 
S
SE
 (E  S )
S
E
 1
S
 1  P( E )
Example
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of
getting two numbers whose sum is not 7.
Example
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of
getting two numbers whose sum is not 7.
• E is the event of getting two numbers
whose sum is 7.
• P(E) = 1 / 6

1 5
 P( E )  1  P( E )  1  
6 6
Empirical Probability
• Probabilities are determined by carrying
out the experiment and observing the
frequencies of the various outcomes.
• Probability is defined as relative
frequency.
Example
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution
and find the following probabilities.
(a) A person has type O blood.
(b) A person has type A or type B blood.
(c) A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
(d) A person does not have type AB blood.
Solution

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
Solution
(a) P(O) = 21 / 50
(b) P(A or B) = (22 + 5) / 50 = 27 / 50
(c) P(neither A not O) = (5 + 2) / 50
= 7 / 50
(d) P(not AB) = 1 – P(AB)
= 1 – 2/50
= 48/50 = 24/25
Points to Remember

1. Sample space.
2. Event.
3. Simple Event.
4. Compound Event
5. Complementary events.
6. Classical probability.
7. Empirical probability.

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