Probability

Distributions

Probability
Distributions 1
Discrete Probability Distributions

GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:
ONE
Define the terms random variable and probability distribution.
TWO
Distinguish between a discrete and continuous probability
distributions.
THREE
Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution.

Probability Distributions 2
 Discrete Probability Distributions

GOALS
When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to:

FOUR
Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities using
the binomial probability distribution.

FIVE
Describe the characteristics and compute the probabilities
using the Poisson distribution.

Probability Distributions 3
Random Variables

A random variable is a numerical value determined by the

outcome of an experiment.

A probability distribution is the listing of all possible outcomes

of an experiment and the corresponding probability.

Probability Distributions 4
Types of Probability Distributions

A discrete probability distribution can assume only

certain outcomes.

A continuous probability distribution can assume an

infinite number of values within a given range.

Probability Distributions 5
Types of Probability Distributions

Examples of a discrete distribution are:

 The number of students in a class.
 The number of children in a family.
 Number of home mortgages approved by Coastal
Federal Bank last week.

Probability Distributions 6
Types of Probability Distributions

Examples of a continuous distribution include:

The distance students travel to class.
The time it takes an executive to drive to work.
The length of an afternoon nap.
The length of time of a particular phone call.

Probability Distributions 7
Features of a Discrete Distribution

The main features of a discrete probability distribution

are:

 The sum of the probabilities of the various

outcomes is 1.
 The probability of a particular outcome is between 0
and 1.
 The outcomes are mutually exclusive.

Probability Distributions 8
Example # 1

Consider a random experiment in which a coin is

tossed three times. Let x be the number of heads. Let
H represent the outcome of a head and T the outcome
of a tail.

Probability Distributions 9
Example # 1 continued

The possible outcomes for such an experiment will be:

TTT, TTH, THT, THH,

HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH.

Thus the possible values of x (number of heads)

are 0,1,2,3.

Probability Distributions 10
Example # 1 continued

The outcome of zero heads occurred once.

The outcome of one head occurred three times.
The outcome of two heads occurred three times.
The outcome of three heads occurred once.

From the definition of a random variable, x as defined in this

experiment, is a random variable.

Probability Distributions 11
The Mean of a Discrete Probability
Distribution
The mean: reports the central location of the data.

 is the long-run average value of the

random variable.
 is also referred to as its expected value, E(X),
in a probability distribution.
 is a weighted average.

Probability Distributions 12
The Mean of a Discrete Probability
Distribution
The mean is computed by the formula:
  E ( X )   XP( X )
where μ is the mean and P(x) is the probability of the
various outcomes x.

Probability Distributions 13
The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution

The variance measures the amount of spread (variation) of a

distribution.
The variance of a discrete distribution is denoted by the
Greek letter σ2 (sigma squared).
The standard deviation is the square root of σ2.

Probability Distributions 14
The Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution

The variance of a discrete probability distribution is

computed from the formula:

or 2 2
  [( x   ) P( x)]
2 2 2
  E( X )  

Probability Distributions 15
Example # 2

Dan Desch, owner of # of Houses Weeks

College Painters, studied Painted
his records for the past 20 10 5
weeks and reports the
following number of 11 6
houses painted per week: 12 7

13 2

Probability Distributions 16
Example # 2 continued

Number of houses Probability, P(x)

painted, x
10 .25
11 .30
12 .35
13 .10
Total 1.00

Probability Distributions 17
Example # 2 continued

Compute the mean number of houses painted per

week:
  E ( x)  [ xP( x)]
 (10)(0.25)  (11)(0.30)  (12)(0.35)  (13)(0.10)
 11 .3

Probability Distributions 18
Example # 2 continued
Compute the variance of the number of houses painted
per week:
Variance = E(x2) – (E(x))2
E(x2) = ∑x2P(x) = 102 × .25 + 112 × 0.30 + 122 × 0.35
+ 132 × 0.10 = 128.6
V(x) = 128.6 – 11.32 = 0.91

Probability Distributions 19
Binomial Probability Distribution
The binomial distribution has the following characteristics:

 An outcome of an experiment is classified into

one of two mutually exclusive categories, such as a
success or failure.
 The data collected are the results of counts. i.e., the
number of trials is fixed.
 The probability of success remains same for each
trial.
 The trials are independent.

Probability Distributions 20
Binomial Probability Distribution

To construct a binomial distribution, let

n be the number of trials
x be the number of observed successes
p be the probability of success on each trial

Probability Distributions 21
Binomial Probability Distribution

The formula for the binomial probability

distribution is:

x n x
P( x ) n C x p (1  p)

Probability Distributions 22
Example # 3

The Alabama Department of Labor reports that 20% of

the workforce in Mobile is unemployed. From a sample
of 14 workers, calculate Mean and Variance.

Probability Distributions 23
Mean & Variance of the Binomial Distribution

The mean is found by:

  np
The variance is found by:
2
  np (1  p)

Probability Distributions 24
 Here, p = 0.2 and n = 14.
Hence, the mean is:
μ = n p = 14(.2) = 2.8.

The variance is:

σ2 = np (1- p ) = (14)(.2)(.8)
= 2.24.

Probability Distributions 25
Problem 4

For a binomial distribution with n = 12 and

p = 0.45, find
(a) P(x = 8)
(b) P(x>4)
(c) P(x<=10).

Probability Distributions 26
Solution
We have a binomial distribution with n = 12 and p = 0.45. So, the
probability mass function (pmf) of the distribution is

P(X)12 C x  (0.45) x  (0.55)12 x

8 4
P ( X  8)  C
12 8  ( 0. 45)  ( 0. 55)
Now, a)
 0.07617

Probability Distributions 27
 b) P ( X  4)  1  P ( X  4)  1 [12 C0  (0.45) 0  (0.55)12
12 C1  (0.45)1  (0.55)11  12 C2  (0.45) 2  (0.55)10
 12 C3  (0.45) 3  (0.55)9 12 C4  (0.45) 4  (0.55)8 ]
 0.6956

c) P ( X  10)  1  P ( X  11)  1  [ P ( X  11)  P( X  12)]

 1 {12 C11  (0.45)11  (0.55)1 12 C12  (0.45)12  (0.55) 0 }
 0.9989

Probability Distributions 28
 Problem 4
Harry Ohme is in charge of the electronics section of a large
department store. He has noticed that the probability that a
customer who is just browsing will buy something is 0.3. Suppose
that 15 customers browse in the electronics section each hour. Find
out,
(a) What is the probability that at least one browsing customer will
buy something during a specified hour?
(b) What is the probability that at least four browsing customers will
buy something during a specified hour?

Probability Distributions 29
 (c) What is the probability that no browsing customer will buy
anything during a specified hour?
(d) What is the probability that no more than four browsing
customers will buy something during a specific hour?
Solution:
Let X be the number of customers who is just browsing will buy
something
And p be the probability that a customer who is just browsing
will buy something = 0.3
Here n = 15, the pmf of X is

P(X)  15 C x  (0.3) x  (0.7)15 x

Probability Distributions 30
 a) P(X ≥ 1) = 1 – P(X = 0) = 0.9952
b) P(X ≥ 4) = 1 – P(X ≤ 3)
= 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)]
= 0.7031
c) P(X = 0) = 4.748 × 10-3
d) P(X ≤ 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) +
P(X = 4) = 0.5155

Probability Distributions 31
Poisson Probability Distribution

The binomial distribution becomes more skewed to the right

(positive) as the probability of success become smaller.

The limiting form of the binomial distribution where the

probability of success p is small and n is large is called the
Poisson probability distribution.

Probability Distributions 32
Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson distribution can be described

mathematically using the formula:
x m
m e
P( x) 
x!

where m is the mean number of successes in a particular

interval of time, e is the constant 2.71828, and x is the
number of successes.

Probability Distributions 33
Poisson Probability Distribution

The mean number of successes m can be determined in

binomial situations by np, where n is the number of trials
and p the probability of a success.

The variance of the Poisson distribution is also equal to np.

Probability Distributions 34
Example 1
Given m = 4.2, for a Poisson distribution, find
a) P(x  2), b) P(x  5), c) P(x  8)

Solution: We have m = 4.2. The pmf of a Poisson variate X is

e m m x
P( X ) 
x!
a) P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
0 1 2
 4.2  4.2 4.2 4 . 2 
 e      0.2102
 0! 1! 2! 

Probability Distributions 35
(b) P(X ≥ 5) = 1 – P(X ≤ 4) = 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) +
P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)]
 4.2  4. 2 0
4 . 2 1
4 . 2 2
4. 2 3
4. 2 4

 1  e        0.4102
 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 

e 4.2 4.2 8
(c) P(X = 8) =  0.0360
8!

Probability Distributions 36
Problem 2

If the prices of new cars increase an average of four times every

three years, find the probability of
a)No price hikes in a randomly selected period of 3 years.
b)Two price hikes.
c)Four price hikes.
d)Five or more.

Probability Distributions 37
Solution: e 4 4 x
Here m = 4, The pmf of X is P( X ) 
x!
e 4 4 0
(a ) P(X  0)   0.0183
0!
e 4 4 2
b  P(X  2)   0.1465
2!
e 4 4 4
c  P(X  4)   0.1954
4!
(d) P(X ≥ 5) = 1 – P(X ≤ 4) = 1- [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
+ P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)]
4  4 0
41
4 2
4 3
4 4


 1 e        0.3712
 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 

Probability Distributions 38
Normal Distribution

It is an important continuous probability distribution. The

Greek letter  (lower case mu), represents the mean of a
normal distribution and the Greek letter  (lower case
sigma) represents the standard deviation.

Probability Distributions 39
Definition:
Normal probability distribution: A continuous probability
distribution uniquely determined by µ and s. The
probability density function of a normally distributed
random variable X is
2
1 x  
  
1 2   
f (X)  e ;  X 
 2

Probability Distributions 40
Major Characteristics of Normal Distn.

a) The normal distribution is “bell‑shaped” and the mean,

median, and mode are all equal. Exactly one‑half of the
observations are larger than this center value and
one‑half are smaller.
b) The distribution is symmetrical. A vertical line drawn at
the mean divides the distribution into two equal halves
and these halves possess exactly the same shape.
c) It is asymptotic. That is, the “tails of the curve approach
the X‑axis but never actually touch it.

Probability Distributions 41
d) A normal distribution is completely described by its
mean and standard deviation. This indicates that if the
mean and standard deviation are known, a normal
distribution can be constructed and its curve drawn.
e) There is a “family” of normal probability distributions.
This means there is a different normal distribution for
each combination of  and .

Probability Distributions 42
Probability Distributions 43
The Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
Standard normal distribution: A normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
An actual distribution is converted to a standard normal
distribution using a z value.
z value: The signed distance between a selected value
designated X, and the population mean,  , divided by
the population standard deviation, .

x
z


Probability Distributions 44
Applications of the Standard Normal
Distribution
suppose the mean useful life of a car battery is 36 months,
with a standard deviation of 3 months. What is the
probability that such a battery will last between 36 and 40
months?
The first step is to convert the 40 months to an equivalent
standard normal value. The computation is:

X -  40  36
z =   133
.
 3

Probability Distributions 45
Next refer to a table titled area under the standard normal
probability curve for the areas under the normal curve. A
part of the table is shown at the right.

To use the table, the z value of 1.33 is split into two parts,
1.3 and 0.03. To obtain the probability go down the left-
hand column to 1.3, then move over to the column headed
0.03 and read the probability. It is 0.4082.

The probability that a battery will last between 36 and 40

months is 0.4082.

Probability Distributions 46
A part of the table
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
! ! ! !

! ! ! !

! ! ! !

! ! ! !

1.1 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729

1.2 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925

1.3 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099

1.4 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251

Probability Distributions 47
Example 1
If X is a normal variate with mean 30 and SD 5. find the
probabilities that
(i) 26  X  40, (ii) X  45
Solution:
Here, we have, the random variable X is distributed as normally
with  = 30 and  = 5. x
So the standard normal variate, z 

 26  30 40  30 
P
Now, i) P{26 ≤ x ≤ 40} =   z  
 5 5 
= P{-0.8≤ z ≤ 2.0} = P{-0.8 ≤ z ≤ 0} + P{0 ≤ z ≤ 2.0}
= 0.2881 + 0.4772 = 0.7653

Probability Distributions 48
  45  30 
ii) P{x ≥ 45} = P z   = P {z ≥ 3}
 5 
= P{0 ≤ z ≤ } - P{0 ≤ z ≤ 3}
= 0.50 – 0.4987 = 0.0013

iii) Px  30  5 P25  x  35

 P{1.0  z  1.0}  2P{0  z  1}
 2  0.3413  0.6826

Chapter 5: Probability
Distributions Statistics for Decision Making 49
Exercise # 2

Dennis Hogan is the supervisor for the Conowingo

Hydroelectric Dam. Mr. Hogan knows that the
dam’s turbines generate electricity at the peak rate
only when at least 1,000,000 gallons of water pass
through the dam each day. He also knows, from
experience, that the daily flow is normally
distributed, with the mean equal to previous day’s
flow and SD of 200,000 gallons. Yesterday, 850,000
gallons flowed through the dam. What is the
probability that turbines will generate a peak rate
today?

Probability Distributions 50
Solution: Exercise # 2
Let X gallons of water passes through the dam
each day. Here we are given that the probability
distribution of x is normal. The mean and the
standard deviation of x is 800,000 and 200,000
gallons per day.
As we know the turbines will generate electricity
at peak rate if 1,000,000 gallons of water passes
through the dam. So, the probability that the
turbine will generate electricity in the next day is
P{x ≥ 1000,000}

Probability Distributions 51
  1,000,000  800,000 
 P z  
 200,000 
 P{z  1}
 P{0  z  }  P{0  z  1}
 0.50  0.3413  0.1587

Probability Distributions 52
Exercise # 3

On the basis of past experience, automobile

inspectors in Pennsylvania have noticed that 5% of
all cars coming in for their annual inspection fail to
pass. Using the normal approximation to the
binomial, find the probability that between 7 and
18 of the next 200 cars the Lancaster inspection
station will fail the inspection.

Chapter 5: Probability
Distributions Statistics for Decision Making 53
Solution: Exercise # 3

Let X no. of cars are failed to pass in the inspection.

Here, we are given that 5% of cars coming in for
inspection are fail to pass. Also, we are given that it
is expected that 200 cars will come to the station for
inspection. So, the mean no. of cars will fail to pass
in next weeks = 200×0.05 = 10.0
and SD = 200  0.05  0.95  3.082

Chapter 5: Probability
Distributions Statistics for Decision Making 54
Now the probability that 7 to 18 cars out of 200 cars will
expected to fail = P{7 ≤ x ≤ 18}

 7  10 18  10 
 P z 
 3.082 3.082 
 P{0.97  z  2.60}
 P{0.97  z  0}  P{0  z  2.60}
 0.3340  .4953  0.8293

Chapter 5: Probability
Distributions Statistics for Decision Making 55
Exercise: Do yourself
1. The incidence of occupational disease in an industry
is such that the workmen have a 20% chance of
suffering from it. What is the probability that out of
6 workmen, 4 or more will contact the disease?
2. Ten coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the
probability of getting at least 7 heads.
3. The mean and variance of a binomial variate X are
16 and 8. Find
a ) P(X  0), b) P(X  1), c) P(X  2),
d ) P(X  2), e ) P ( 4  X  6)

Probability Distributions 56
4. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The
number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as
Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days
on which (i) neither car is used, and (ii) some demand is
refused.
5. A manufacturer of cotter pins knows that 5% of his product is
defective. If he sells cotter pins in boxes of 100 and guarantees
that not more than 10 pins will be defective, what is the
approximate probability that a box will fail to meet the
guaranteed quality?
6. Assuming that the traffic accident in a day in a street of
Chittagong is 0.001, on how many days out of a total of 1000
days can we expect:
a) no accident
b) more than three accidents.
Probability Distributions 57
7. The local authorities in a certain city install 10,000 electric
lamps in the streets of the city. If these lamps have an
average life of 1,000 burning hours with a standard deviation
of 200 hours, assume normally what no. of lamps might be
expected to fail
a) in the first 800 burning hours
b) between 800 and 1,200 burning hours
8. The average daily sale of 500 branch offices is Tk.150
thousand and the standard deviation is Tk.15 thousand.
Assuming the distribution to be normal indicate how many
branches have sales between:
Tk.120,000 and Tk.145,000
Tk.140,000 and Tk.165,000

: Probability Distributions 58
**
8. The average daily sale of 500 branch offices is Tk.150
thousand and the standard deviation is Tk.15 thousand.
Assuming the distribution to be normal indicate how many
branches have sales between:
Tk.120,000 and Tk.145,000
Tk.140,000 and Tk.165,000

: Probability Distributions 59