Introduction to Inferential

Statistics
 Sampling Distributions
 Confidence Intervals
 Hypothesis Testing
 What is inferential Statistics
• Recall: Methods used to determine something
about a population based on a sample.
 Inferential Statistics
Sample statistics Population parameters
(known) Inference (unknown, but can
be estimated from
sample evidence)

Sample Population
 Sampling Distribution

 What is a Sampling Distribution?

 Sampling Distribution of the Mean
 Central Limit Theorem
 Sampling Distribution of Proportions
 Sampling Distribution
Recall:
A statistic is a numerical summary measure
calculated for sample data.
-Example: mean, median mode and standard
deviation calculated for sample data.
Population proportion is a numerical measure
calculated for population data.
 Sampling Distributions
 A random sample should represent the population
well, so sample statistics from a random sample
should provide reasonable estimates of population
parameters
 A population parameter is always a constant,
whereas a sample statistics is always a random
variable.
 All sample statistics have some error in estimating
population parameters
 Sampling Distributions
 Because sample measurements are observed values
of random variables, the value for a sample statistic
will vary in a random manner from sample to
sample. In other words, since sample statistics are
random variables, they possess probability
distributions
 Sampling Distributions
A larger sample provides more information than a
smaller sample so a statistic from a large sample
should have less error than a statistic from a small
sample
 The sampling distribution of a sample statistic
calculated from a sample of n measurements is the
probability distribution of the statistic.
 The probability distribution of a statistic is called its
sampling distribution.
 _
Sampling Distribution for x
_
The probability distribution for x is called the
its sampling _distribution. It lists the various
values that x can_assume and the probability
of each value of x
Consider the population of midterm scores of
five students given in the table below:
 _
Sampling Distribution for x
x f
70 1
78 1
80 2
95 1
N=5

Suppose we assign letters F, G, H, I and J to

the score of the five students so that F=70,
G=78, H=80, I=80 and J=95
 _
Sampling Distribution for x

• Consider all possible samples of three scores

each that can be selected without
replacement from that population
• The total number of samples of three scores
each =
5 5!
C3   10
3!(5  3)!
• The 10 possible samples of three scores each
are: FGH, FGI, FGJ, FHI, FIJ, GHI, GIJ, HIJ, FHJ,
GHJ.
 _
Sampling Distribution for x

• All possible samples and their means with

sample size of three:
_
Sample Scores in Sample x
FGH 70,78, 80 76
FGI 70, 78,80 76
FGJ 70,78,95 81
FHI 70,80,80 76.67
FIJ 70,80,95 81.67
GHI 78,80,80 79.33
GIJ 78,80,95 84.33
HIJ 80,80,95 85
FHJ 70,80,95 81.67
GHJ 78,80,95 84.33
 _
Sampling Distribution for x

• Frequency
_
and relative frequency distribution
of x when the sample size is 3
_
x f Relative frequency
76 2 2/10 = 0.2
76.67 1 1/10 = 0.1
79.33 1 1/10 =0.1
81 1 1/10 =0.1
81.67 2 2/10 = 0.2
84.33 2 2/10 =0.2
85 1 1/10 =0.1
 f  10 Sum=1
 _
Sampling Distribution for x
_
• Sampling distribution of x when the sample
size is 3
_ _
x P( x)
76 0.2
76.67 0.1
79.33 0.1
81 0.1
81.67 0.2
84.33 0.2
85 0.1
_

 P( x)  1
 Example: Sampling Distribution
• Using the population of midterm scores of students above:

a) Find the mean and variance of this population.

b) Find the mean of the probability distribution of sample

means.

c) Find the variance of the probability distribution of means.

 Sampling Distribution of the Mean
For the sampling distribution of x:
• The mean :
– Is denoted by  x
– Is always equal to the population mean: x 
 x  E ( x )   x P ( x ) 
– Since E( x) = μ, x is called an unbiased estimator of μ

• The standard deviation:

– Is denoted by  x

 N n
– Is equal to x 
n N 1
Sampling Without Replacement
if sample size is relatively small
 _
Sampling Distribution for x

• Or the standard deviation is:  x  

n
If sampling is done with replacement from a
finite population or with or without
replacement from an infinite population.

• If the sample size is smaller than the

n 
population size, that is, N  0. 05 then  x 
n
 Sampling Distribution for
• The spread of the sampling distribution for x is
smaller than the spread of the corresponding
population distribution:  x  

• The standard deviation of x decreases as the

sample size increases.
 Example: sampling Distribution
• The living spaces for all homes in a city have a
mean of 2300 square feet and a standard
deviation of 450 square feet. Let x be the
mean living space for a random sample of 25
homes selected from this city. Find the mean
and standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of x
Shape of the Sampling Distribution of x
Sampling from a Normally Distributed Population
• When the population from which samples are
drawn has a normal distribution with its mean
equal  and the standard deviation equal  ,
then,
1)Then the of x ,  x is equal to 

2)The standard deviation of x , x is equal to

assuming n  0.05 n
3)The shape of the sampling distribution of xis
N

normal , whatever the value of n.

Sampling from a Population that is not
Normal
Central Limit Theorem: According to the
Central Limit Theorem, for a large sample size,
the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal, irrespective of the
shape of the population distribution.
• The mean and standard deviation and
standard deviation of are:

• x   and  x  n
• The sample size is considered large if n  30
CLT: The Effect of Sample Size I
 CLT: The Effect of Sample Size II
Normal Uniform Skewed General

Population

n=2

n = 30

 X  X  X  X
 Finding Probabilities for Sampling
Distributions
• Step 1:
1 Standardize the values to be found
using pˆ  p
x

p (1  p )
n or n
For the Mean For the Proportion

• Step 2:
2 Find probabilities as usual using the
standardized values
 Example: Finding Probabilities for
Sampling Distribution
• The GPA of all students enrolled at a large
university have an approximately normal
distribution with a mean of 3.02 and a standard
deviation of 0.29. Find the probability that the
mean GPA of a random sample of 20 students
selected from this university is:
a) 3.10 or higher
b)2.90 or lower
c) 2.95 to 3.11
Sampling Distribution of the Proportion
• The sample proportion is the percentage of
successes in n binomial trials. It is the number
of successes, X, divided by the number of
trials, n. X
• Sample Proportion, p  n
• As the sample size, n, increases, the sampling
distribution of p approaches a normal
distribution with mean p and standard
deviation p(1  p )
n
 Sampling Distribution of the
Proportion
• Note: just like the sampling mean x , the
sample proportion p is a random variable.
Hence it possesses a probability distribution
which is called its sampling distribution.
 Example: Sampling Distribution of
Proportion
• A survey of all medium and large size
corporations showed that 64% of them offer
retirement plans to their employees. Let p be
the proportion in a random sample of 50 such
corporations that offer retirement plans to
their employees. Find the probability that the
value p will be :
a)Between 0.54 and 0.61
b)Greater than 0.71