Scribd
Upload
59 views

2022 Strategic Forecasting and Risk Analysis - Introduction

This course focuses on developing strategic forecasting and risk analysis skills. It will teach tools and methodologies for forecasting political, economic, and security risks in emerging markets. The course is analytical and practical, examining risk sources and providing skill-building in forecasting methods. It also assesses risk management techniques.

Uploaded by

Vengesai
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
59 views

2022 Strategic Forecasting and Risk Analysis - Introduction

This course focuses on developing strategic forecasting and risk analysis skills. It will teach tools and methodologies for forecasting political, economic, and security risks in emerging markets. The course is analytical and practical, examining risk sources and providing skill-building in forecasting methods. It also assesses risk management techniques.

Uploaded by

Vengesai
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 24

Strategic Forecasting and Risk Analysis

Dr. V. MAGADZIRE
PhD in Economics, UK
Ph.D. in Public Policy, South Korea
Master of Public Policy, Japan
Master of International Business, The Netherlands
Master of Science in Finance and Investment, NUST Zim
B.Com (Hons) in Banking, NUST Zimbabwe
Course Overview

The course aims to develop your


strategic forecasting and risk analysis
skills in several ways by bridging
theory and academic practice through
the use of case-studies, simulations,
and exercises drawn from the real
world
Course overview

We can observe a rapidly


changing and sometimes
threatening global environment

characterized by political and


economic risk and uncertainty
Course overview
The world:

i. foreign publics who are often


angry, hostile, and capricious
in their tastes;

ii. constantly shifting political


winds,
Course overview

iii. aggressive and unpredictable regulators

iv. potentially unreliable business partners

v. economic crises and instability

vi. the risks of terrorism and political


violence
Course overview

In this course we will answer:

i. How will you cope with these


problems?

ii. What tools and methodologies


will you employ to forecast
these risks?
Course overview

In this course we will answer :

iii. What actions will you take to


manage and mitigate the
dangers?
Course overview

This course will address:

riskforecasting and management


methodologies and techniques
Course overview

The emphasis on the course is


practical and applied

Students will have the


opportunity to apply what they
learn in real-world case problems
and assignments
Course overview

In our case the focus is on how:

i. how risk analysis can be


integrated into intelligence for
producing terrorism threat
assessments and warnings
Course overview

In our case the focus is on how:

ii. Intelligence professionals can use


the risk analyst’s toolbox to
sharpen conclusions that are made
in intelligence products by
providing support for identification
of scenarios of greatest concern
Course overview

In our case the focus is on how:

iii. Risk analysis can also be used to


focus future collection efforts on
information that appears to be
most relevant to refining existing
estimates of terrorism risks
Course overview
However risk analysis must be
conducted:

a. to meet challenges of
information availability

b. matching resolution of results


to the problem,
Course overview

However risk analysis must be


conducted:

c. to reflect risk as the social


construct that it is, and not
ignoring the possibility of
surprise
Course overview

War, revolution, terrorism,


different forms and changes in
government are highly visible
examples of the sources of
political risks that confront
business, organizations and
governments every day
Course overview

Part I of the course is analytical

We begin with an inquiry into


alternative definitions of political
risk
Course overview

Part I of the course is analytical

Itlooks also at the changing


character of the global economy,
the implications of trends in
"globalization" on politics,
commerce, and finance in emerging
markets
Course overview

Part I of the course is analytical

In addition, we consider the varied


sources of risk, both from the
external processes of globalization
and the internal processes of
development
Course overview

Part I of the course is analytical

Using insights from the fields of


comparative politics and
international political economy, the
course provides an overview of
contemporary trends in emerging-
market and transitional economy
political systems
Course overview
Part II provides skill building
for forecasting
 What theoretical and
methodological tools allow us to
determine the trajectory of
domestic politics and regional
and internal security contexts in
emerging markets?
Course overview

Part II provides skill building for


forecasting

How can the quality and


predictability of good governance be
analyzed and future trends projected?
Course overview

Part II provides skill building


for forecasting

What are the best sources of


data?
Course overview

Part II provides skill building for


forecasting

The course will feature specific


methods and models for conducting
research that aims to predict future
trends primarily at the country level.
Course overview

PartIII assesses ways to potentially


manage risk

The course includes a close look at


economic, political, and legal risks,
the ways these dimensions are
related, and opportunities for risk
management in each of these spheres

You might also like