Lean Six Sigma green belt Training

Basics of probability
Course Curriculum

• Introduction
• Basics of probability
• Permutations an combinations
• Rules used in probability
• Probability distributions
Learning Objectives

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

Outline probability basics

Explain permutations ad combinations List the

Rules of probability
 What is probability

Probability  is the chance that something will happen. It can be shown on a line

The probability of an event occurring is somewhere between impossible and certain.

As well as words, we can use numbers to show the probability of something happening:
•Impossible is zero
•Certain is one
What is probability
Probability of event
Basic Terms in probability
Examples of basic terminology
Tossing a coin probability
Examples of basic terminology
Examples of basic terminology
Understand Decks of cards
 Probability notation

 
P(A)-Probability that event A occurs
P(A’)=Probability that event A will not occur
P(AUB)=Probability that event A will occur or B will occur or both (Union of A
and B)
P(A=Probability that event A and B will occur simultaneously or Joint probability
of A and B
P(A/B)=Probability of A given that B is known to have occurred (Conditional
probability
Probability Concepts
 Application of probablity

Some of the applications of probability are

predicting the outcome when you:
Flipping a coin.
Choosing a card from the deck.
Throwing a dice.
Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
Winning a lottery 1 in many millions.
 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 1:

The probability of an event is between 0 and 1

Probability of an event that can not occur would be zero

Probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1.0
The formula is
P(A) = 0.00 to 1.00
 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 2:

Sum of all possible probabilities of defined event is equal to 1.0

P1+P2+P3+…..+Pn=1.00

For example :
in roll of single die ,P(1)=1/6,P(2)=1/6
P(3)=1/6, P(4)=1/6, P(5)=1/6, P(6)=1/6

P1+P2+P3+P4+P5+P6=1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6=6/6=1
 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 3:

The complementary law:

Since the sum of all possible probabilities of defined event is equal to 1.00
The probability of an event not occurring is equal probability of event occurring subtracted from 1.00

If P(A)=probability of an event will occur

Then 1-P(A) =probability of an event will not occur

For example

P(Draw a heart fro deck of cards)=13/52

P(Draw a non-heart from a deck of cards=1-(13/52)=39/52
 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 4:

The additive law:

If the events are mutually exclusive (events that can not occur at same time) ,sum of probability of
occurrence of these events is equal to P(A)+P(B)

If A and B are only possible outcomes and are mutually exclusive then P(A)+P(B)=1

For Example:

In a single flip of coin the only two reasonable outcomes are a head or tail(Neglecting the possibility of
landing on edge)
These are mutually exclusive events since observing a head means a tail can not be observed and vice
versa

Therefore p(head or tail)=p(head)+p(tail)=1.0

 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 5:

The multiplicative law:

The probability of joint occurrence of independent events is the product of probability of each event
(Independent events do not influence the likelihood of occurrence of any of other events

If A,B and C are independent events (not influenced by each other then:

P(A and B and C)=P(A)XP(B)XP(C)

Example:

Probability of rolling a “6” in consecutive three rolls of a single dice

(note; outcome of one roll does not influence the other)

P(roll “6” three times in a row)=1/6x1/6x1/6=1/216

 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 6:

The Combination law:

The probability of occurrence of either or both non-independent events is sum of probability of each
independent events minus the probability of joint events

P(A or B or both A and B)=P(A)+P(B)-{P(A)xP(B)}

Example:

Probability of drawing an ace or club from deck of cards

P(ace or club)=P(ace)+P(club)-P(ace of clubs)=4/52+13/52-{4/52x13/52}=16/52=0.31

 The seven Fundamental probability rules
Rule 7:

The Condition law:

The probability of observing two dependent events is the product of probability of first event and the
conditional probability of second event ,given that first has occurred

Given that A and B are dependent

P(A and B)=P(A)XP(B/A)

Example :

The probability of drawing a second ace from deck of cards, given that first draw was an ace (Assume two
cards are drawn without replacement )

P(two aces)=P(1st ace)XP(2nd Ace/1st Ace)=4/52X3/51=0.0769X0.0589=0.00452

 Permutations

A permutation of the elements is an ordered sequence of the elements

e.g. if we have three elements a,b,c then possible permutations will be abc,acb,bac,cab,cba i.e 6.

The number of permutations of n different things is n!

Where n!=nx(n-1)x(n-2)x…..x2x1
 Permutations Formula

Number of permutations of subsets of r elements selected from a set of N different elements is

nPr=nx(n-1)x(n-2)x…….x(n-r-1)

=n!/(n-r)!

Permutations (n,r)= n!/(n-r)!

Order counts in permutations

 Combinations Formula

Number of combinations ,subsets of size r that can be selected from a set of N elements

nCr=n!/r!(n-r)!

Combinations (n,r)=n!/r!(n-r)!

Order does not count in combinations

Here selection count in combinations

 Key Takeaways

Probability refers to the chance of something occurring or

happening.

P(E) = "Probability of an event"=𝒇/𝑵=favorable outcomes/Total outcomes

When the probability of occurrence of an event does not affect the probability of the occurrence of another event, then the
two events are said to be independent.

When the probability of one event occurring influences the likelihood of another event, the events are said to be
dependent.

Permutation is the total number of ways in which a set, group, or number of things can be arranged.

The unordered arrangement of a set, group, or number of

things is known as combination.
Q1:You have two cars. The probability of each one starting is 60%. What is the
likelihood
that at least one car starts?

A. 36%

B. 64%

C. 84%

D. 24%
Q1:You have two cars. The probability of each one starting is 60%. What is the
likelihood
that at least one car starts?

A. 36%

B. 64%

C. 84%

D. 24%

The correct answer is C

P(A) is car 1 starting and P(B) is car 2 starting.

P (A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A AND B) = .6 + .6 – (.36) = 1.2 - .36 = .84 = 84%
Q 2:You want to list three desserts from a menu of nine. How many different ways can
this
be done?

A. 504

B. 84

C. 27

D. 12
Q2:You want to list three desserts from a menu of nine. How many different ways can
this
be done?

A. 504

B. 84

C. 27

D. 12

B
The correct answer is
Apply formula 9C3=9!/3!(9-3)!=9!/3!6!=9x8x7x6!/3!6!=84

This a combination problem since the order in which the desserts are listed is not of
concern. Therefore, using the
EXCEL function “=COMBIN(9,3)”, the resulting value is 84.
Q 3:You want to list your three favorite desserts in order from a menu of 11. How many
different ways can this be done?

A. 990

B. 165

C. 33

D. 14
Q 3:You want to list your three favorite desserts in order from a menu of 11. How many
different ways can this be done?

A. 990

B. 165

C. 33

D. 14

A
The correct answer is
Apply the formula 11p3=11!/(11-3)!-11!/8!=11x10x9x8!/8!=990 ways

This a permutation problem because the order that the desserts are listed in is of
concern. Therefore, the EXCEL
function to be used is “=PERMUT(11,3)”, which results in the value 990.
THANKS