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L4 Continuous Probability

This document provides an overview of continuous probability distributions and sampling distributions. It discusses the key properties and applications of the normal probability distribution, and how to calculate probabilities using the standard normal distribution table. It also explains how to find probabilities for the sampling distribution of the sample mean and sample proportion using the z-score. Examples are provided for calculating probabilities for normal and sampling distributions.

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Kelyn Kok
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© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
153 views

L4 Continuous Probability

This document provides an overview of continuous probability distributions and sampling distributions. It discusses the key properties and applications of the normal probability distribution, and how to calculate probabilities using the standard normal distribution table. It also explains how to find probabilities for the sampling distribution of the sample mean and sample proportion using the z-score. Examples are provided for calculating probabilities for normal and sampling distributions.

Uploaded by

Kelyn Kok
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 28

Lecture 4

Continuous Probability Distribution and


Sampling Distribution
1
Reading : Chapter 6 and 7 of GSFS
2
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:

I. Find probabilities using a normal distribution table and apply


the normal distribution to business problems
II. Find the probabilities of a sampling distribution of the sample
mean,
III. Find the probabilities ofXa sampling distribution of the sample
proportion, p
Normal Probability Distribution
 The normal probability distribution is the most important distribution for
describing a continuous random variable.

 It is widely used in statistical inference.


 It has been used in a wide variety of applications
including:
• Heights of people • Test scores
• Rainfall amounts • Scientific measurements
The
4 Normal Distribution

is a ‘Bell Shaped’ distribution f(x)

Properties:
 Unimodal
 Symmetrical
σ
 Mean=median=mode
μ x
 asymptotic to the x-axis
Mean
= Median
= Mode
Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics

The distribution is symmetric; its skewness


measure is zero.

x
The entire family of normal probability
distributions is defined by its mean m and its
standard deviation s .

Standard Deviation s

x
Mean m
The highest point on the normal curve is at the
mean, which is also the median and mode.

x
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the mean and
.5 to the right).

.5 .5
x
The Standard Normal Distribution
9

• Also known as the “z” distribution


• A Standard normal distribution has a mean
0 and standard deviation of 1
• Any normal distribution can be transformed
into the standard normal distribution (z) by:
x μ
z
σ
The Standard Normal Distribution
10 (z table)
• The mean of a z-score = 0
x μ
z • A value of one standard
σ deviation from the mean has
z = +1 or -1
f(z)

If x <  If x > 
-z 0 +z

10
11 The Standard Normal Table

• Tabulated areas under the Appendix


D are probabilities of intervals
extending from the mean =0 to
points z to its right.

• The area from 0 to + is equal to


0.5. Since the curve is symmetric,
the area from 0 to – is also equal
to 0.5.
Appendix D: Areas under the Normal Curve
12

• Example: If Z = 1.96,
0.4750
then
P(0<Z<1.96) = 0.475
Z 0 1.96

z 0.00 0.01 … 0.06 ... 0.09


0.0 0.0000 0.0040 … 0.0239 … 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 … 0.0636 … 0.0753
: : : … : … :
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 … 0.4750 … 0.4767
: : : … : … :
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 … 0.4989 … 0.4990
General Procedure for Finding
13 Probabilities
• To find P(a < x < b) when x is distributed
normally:
• Draw the normal curve for the problem in
• terms of x

• Translate x-values to z-values

• Use the Standard Normal Table


 Example:

It has been determined that demand during


replenishment lead-time is normally distributed
with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard deviation
of 5 gallons. The manager would like to know the
probability of a stockout during replenishment
lead-time. What is the probability that demand
during lead-time
a. will exceed 20 gallons?
b. Will be less than 18 gallons?
c. Will be between 12 to 25 gallons?
d. will be between 21 to 24 gallons?
15
16
Standard Normal Distribution Table
z 00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
170.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
0.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
0.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
0.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549
0.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
0.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
0.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621
1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962 .3980 .3997 .4015
1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177
1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817
II. Sampling Distribution of Mean
A sampling distribution is a
distribution of the possible values of
a statistic for a given sample size
selected from a population
18
Sampling Error
 Using sample statistics, Xused to estimate the
is
population mean, μ
 The difference between the sample mean and the
population mean is called the sampling error.

Sampling Error  x - μ

19 x  sample mean
μ  population mean
Example
If the population mean μ = 100 degrees F
and a sample of n = 5 temperatures yields
a sample mean of = 90 degrees F, then
the samplingXerror is

20
The Sample Standard Deviation
If a population is normally distributed with mean μ and standard
deviation σ, the sampling distribution of is also normally

x
distributed

21
z-value for Sampling Distribution of
x
z-value for the sampling distribution is:

(x  μ)
z
σ
n
22
where: =xsample mean
μ
= population mean
σ
= population standard deviation

n = sample size
If the Population is not Normal
Central Limit Theorem can be applied where even if the
population is not normally distributed, the sampling
distribution will be approximately normal as long as the
sample size is large enough

23
Finding the probability of a sampling distribution

A population has a mean μ = 2.5 and standard


deviation σ = 1.5. Suppose a random sample of size
n = 15 is selected.
What is the probability that the sample mean is less
than 3?

24
z-Value for Proportions
p 
z 
 p

where:

z = number of standard errors p is from 


25 p = sample proportion
 (1   )
standard error = p 
n
 =population proportion
Example
If the true proportion of voters who support Proposition A is 0
what is the probability that a sample of size 320 yields a samp
proportion :
a. More than 0.75?
b. Less than 0.45?
c. between 0.40 and 0.45?
d. Between 0.65 to 0.95?
26
27
28

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