Chapter Five: Scheduling

1. Critical Path Method

(CPM)

1
 CPM and PERT

 Critical Path is one of the two ways or tools to

identify the paths through your project
 PERT stands for program evaluation review technique
 CPM means critical path method
 CPM uses one time estimate, whereas PERT uses
three time estimates
 CPM is used when you are sure about the duration
of each activity
 PERT is used in more uncertain situations
How to find the Critical Path
1. Start with an activity network diagram
4 2

A C
Start 7
3
B Finish
D
5
E
2. Find all of the paths in the diagram. A path is any
string of activities that goes from the start of the
project to the end.
3. Find the duration of each path by adding up the
durations of each of the activities on the path.
 The critical path is the one with the longest
duration
3
How to find the Critical Path

 The float for each of the activities on the critical path is

zero.
 Find the next longest path. Subtract its duration from the
duration of the critical path, and that’s the float for each
activity on it.
 You can use this method to find the float for every activity
in a network diagram.
 Another word for float is slack.
 Do the same for the next longest path, and so on through
the rest of the network diagram.
 Float tells you how much extra time you have
 Once you know the float, you know how much play you have in
your schedule.

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Example
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility

A Select administrative and medical staff.

B Select site and do site survey.
C Select equipment.
D Prepare final construction plans and layout.
E Bring utilities to the site.
F Interview applicants and fill positions in
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment.
H Construct the hospital.
I Develop an information system.
J Install the equipment.
K Train nurses and support staff.

5
Example Activity Duration

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility
12
A Select administrative and medical staff. —
B Select site and do site survey. — 9
C Select equipment. A 10
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B 10
E Bring utilities to the site. B 24
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A 10
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
35
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C
40
H Construct the hospital. D
I Develop an information system. A 15
J Install the equipment. E,G,H 4
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J 6

6
 Diagramming the Network
Immediate
Predecessor
I
A
—
B A F K
—
C
A
D Start C G Finish
B
E
B
F B D H J
A
G
C
E
H
D
I 7
 Cont’d…
Paths are the sequence of
activities between a I
project’s start and finish.
A F K

Path Time (wks)

Start C G Finish
A-I-K 33
A-F-K 28
A-C-G-J-K 67 B D H J
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43
E

8
Cont’d…
The critical path is the
longest path!
I

Path Time (wks)

A F K
A-I-K 33
A-F-K 28
A-C-G-J-K 67 Start C G Finish
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43
B D H J

Project Expected
Time is 69 wks. E

9
2. Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT)
Estimation of Task Times
 In CPM, we assume that the task durations
are known with certainty.
 This may not be realistic in many project
settings.
 How long does it take to design a switch?
 PERT tries to account for the uncertainty in
task durations.
 Key question: What is the probability of
completing project by given deadline?

11
 CPM vs. PERT

 CPM (critical path method)

 PERT (program evaluation and review
technique)
 Both approaches work on a project network,
which graphically portrays the activities of the
project and their relationships.

 CPM assumes that activity times are

deterministic, while PERT views the time to
complete a task as a random variable.
12
 Estimation of the duration of project
activities
(1) The deterministic approach (CPM), which
ignores uncertainty thus results in a point
estimate (e.g. The duration of task 1 = 23
hours, etc.)
(2) The stochastic approach (PERT), which
considers the uncertain nature of project
activities by estimating the expected duration
of each activity and its corresponding variance.
 To analyse the past data to construct the
probabilistic distribution of a task.

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 Estimation of the activity duration

 Example: An activity was performed 40 times

in the past, requiring a time between 10 to 70
hours. The figure below shows the frequency
distribution.

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 Estimation of the activity duration

 The probability distribution of the

activity is approximated by a probability
frequency distribution.

15
 Estimation of the activity duration

 In project scheduling, we usually use a

beta distribution to represent the time
needed for each activity.

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 Estimation of the activity duration

 Three key values we use in the time estimate

for each activity:
a = optimistic time, which means that there is little
chance that the activity can be completed before
this time;
m = most likely time, which will be required if the
execution is normal;
b = pessimistic time, which means that there is little
chance that the activity will take longer.

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 Estimation of Mean and SD

 The expected or mean time is given by:

D= (a+4m+b)/6

 The variance is:

V = (b-a) 2/36
 The standard deviation is (b - a)/6
 For our example (Figure 7-3), we have a=10, b=70,
m=35.
Therefore D=36.6, and V2 =100.
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 Estimation of Mean and SD

Beta-distribution

a m b
a  4m  b
Expected task time: t
6 2
ba ba
 (
2
Standard deviation:   )
6 6
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 The PERT Approach

The PERT (Program evaluation and

review technique) approach
addresses situations where
uncertainties must be considered.

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Example: Shopping Mall Renovation

Activity IP a m b
A: Prepare initial design - 1 3 5
B: Identify new potential clients - 4 5 12
C: Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 3 10
D: Prepare final design A 1 8 9
E: Obtain planning permission D 1 2 3
F: Obtain finance from bank E 1 3 5
G: Select contractor D 2 4 6
H: Construction G, F 10 17 18
I: Finalize tenant contracts B, C, E 6 13 14
J: Tenants move in I, H 1 2 3

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Example: Issues to Address

1. Schedule the project.

2. What is the probability of completing the

project in 36 weeks?

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Expected Activity Time and SD

Act a m b t 2 t
1 4 3  5
3
A 1 3 5 3 0.44 6
B 4 5 12 6 1.78
C 2 3 10 4 1.78   (124 )  1.78
2
2

D 1 8 9 7 1.78 6
E 1 2 3 2 0.11
F 1 3 5 3 0.44
G 2 4 6 4 0.44
H 10 17 18 16 1.78
I 6 13 14 12 1.78
J 1 2 3 2 0.11
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CPM with Expected Activity Times

I,12

B,6

J,2 End
1 E,2
C,4

F,3

A,3 D,7 G,4 H,16

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Critical Path and Expected Time

1. Critical path: A-D-E-F-H-J.

2. Expected Completion time: 33 weeks

3. What is the probability to complete the

project within 36 weeks?

-- Use the critical path to assess the

probability

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 Probability Assessment

Expected project completion time:

Sum of the expected activity times
along the critical path. Used to obtain
 = 3+7+2+3+16+2 = 33 probability of project
completion

Variance of project-completion time

Sum of the variances along
the critical path.
2 = 0.44+1.78+0.11+0.44+1.78+0.11= 4.66
 = 2.15
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Assessment by Normal Distribution

P(X  36) = ? P(Z  1.4) = ?

Assume X ~ N(33, 2.152)

= T -  = 36 - 33 =
z 1.4
.
 2.15
Normal Standardized Normal Distribution
Distribution
 = 2.15  =1
z

 = 33 36 X  = 0 1.4 Z
PERT SEEM 3530 z 27
 Obtain the Probability

Standardized Normal Probability Table (Portion)

Z .00 .01 .02 P(Z<1.4) = 0.9192

z=1
0.0.5000.5040.5080
: : : :
1.4.9192.9207.9222 .9192
z=0 1.4 z
1.5.9332.9345.9357
P( 0 < Z < z )
PERT SEEM 3530 28
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