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Topic 17: Fundamental Theories of Probability

This document discusses fundamental theories of probability. It introduces key concepts such as probability, sample space, outcomes, events, laws of probability, theoretical vs empirical approaches, and applications of probability theory. Examples are provided to illustrate elementary events, compound events, favorable events, and how to calculate probabilities of events occurring. Theoretical probability problems are presented along with solutions.

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Johnlouie Rafael
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59 views16 pages

Topic 17: Fundamental Theories of Probability

This document discusses fundamental theories of probability. It introduces key concepts such as probability, sample space, outcomes, events, laws of probability, theoretical vs empirical approaches, and applications of probability theory. Examples are provided to illustrate elementary events, compound events, favorable events, and how to calculate probabilities of events occurring. Theoretical probability problems are presented along with solutions.

Uploaded by

Johnlouie Rafael
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Topic 17: Fundamental Theories

of Probability
Introduction To
Probability
 What is Probability?
Probability is the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.

“ the ratio of the number of favorable cases to the number of all the cases “

Generally the word probability is used in our day to day


conversations
by coming across following statements such as:
1.Probably it may rain today.
2. He may possibly join politics .
Theory of
Probability
 The concept of Probability originated in the 16th century
when an Italian physician and mathematician J.Cardan wrote
the first book on the subject , The Book on Games of
Chance.

 Laplace’s Theorie Analytiquedes Probabilities , 1812 is


considered to be the greatest contribution by single person
to the theory of probability.
Terms Used In
Probability
 Event – An event is one occurrence of the activity whose probability is
being calculated.
For example.- we are calculating the probability of dice , an event is
one roll of a dice.
 Outcome - An Outcome is one possible result of an event.
For example. – Rolling a five is one possible outcome of
rolling one dice.
 A Success is an outcome that we want to measure.
 A failure is an outcome that we don’t want to measure
 Sample Space is the collection of all possible outcomes.
 Equally Likely Outcomes- In this 50-50% chance are there of an
outcome.
For example- A baby born is a boy or girl.
Laws of
Probability
 A Probability is a number between 0 to 1
( inclusive)

0 – Impossible , 1 – Certain & ½ a “toss up” .


Theoretical Approach to
Probability

 What is Theoretical Approach to Probability?

In Theoretical Approach to Probability , we try to


predict what will happen without actually performing
the experiment. In this kind of probability we deal with
events which are outcomes of an experiment.
Theoretical Approach to
 Probability
What is an Experiment ?
It means an operation which can produce some well defined outcomes .
2 Types of Experiments

 Deterministic Experiments - Deterministic experiments are those experiments


which when repeated under identical conditions produce the same results or
outcomes.
 Random Experiments - Random Experiments are those experiments which when
repeated under identical conditions do not produce the same outcome every
time.
Terms Associated with
Random Experiment

 Elementary Events - An Outcome of a random experiment.

Consider the random experiment of tossing a coin.


The
possible outcomes of the experiments are Head (H) & Tail
(T) .
Thus, if we define E1 = Getting head on the upper face of
the coin.
& E2 = Getting Tail on the upper face of the coin.
If we toss two coins simultaneously
weget 4 possible
Terms Associated with
Random Experiment

 Another Case is suppose there is a cubical die marked


with 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 Thus if we define E1 = Getting a face
marked with number I ,where i = 1,2,..6. Then , E1 , E2
…. E6 are six elementary events associated to this
experiment.
Terms Associated with
Random Experiment

 COMPOUND EVENT- Event associated to a random


experiment Ana compound event if it is obtained
combining two or
bymore elementary events associated to the
is
random experiment.

For example: In a single throw of a die, the event “ Getting an


even number” is a compound event as it is obtained by
combining three elementary events , namely, 2,4,6.
Terms Associated with
Random Experiment

 Occurrence of an Event- An event A associated to a


random experiment is said to occur if any one of the
elementary events associated to the event A is an
outcome.

 For example: Let us consider the random experiment of


throwing a pair of dice. If (2,6) is an outcome of a trial, then
we can say that each of the following events have
occurred.
 Getting an even number on first dice.
 Getting an even number on both dice.
 Getting 8 as the sum of the numbers on two dice
Terms Associated with
Random Experiment

 FAVOURABLE ELEMENTARY EVENTS- An Elementary event is


said to be favorable to a compound event A , If it satisfies
the definition of the compound event A.

For Example:- Consider the random experiment of


throwing a pair of dice & the compound event by defined by
“Getting 8 as the sum.” So , there are 5 elementary events as
outcome: (2,6), (6,2), (3,5), (5,3), (4,4) .
Application of
Probability

 Probability theory is applied in day to day life in risk


assessments and in trade on financial markets

 Another Significant application of probability theory in


everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such
as automobiles and consumer electronics use reliability
theory in product design to reduce the probability of
failure.
Some Problem Based on
 Probability
Find the probability that a leap year selected at a random will contain 53 Sundays.
Sol: In a Leap year here are 366 days.
We have, 366 days= 52 weeks and 2
days Thus, a leap year has always 52
Sundays. The remaining two days can
be :
(i) Sunday & Monday
(ii) Monday & Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday & Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday & Thursday
(v) Thursday & Friday
(vi) Friday & Saturday
(vii) Saturday & Sunday
Clearly, there are 7 elementary events
associated with this random
experiment.
Let A be the event that a leap year has
53 Sundays.
Clearly the event A will happen if the
last two days of the leap year are
either

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