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Models of Traffic Flow

The document discusses models of traffic flow, including macroscopic and microscopic models. It introduces the Poisson distribution as a model for random vehicle arrivals. The Poisson model assumes vehicles arrive randomly with a constant average rate. This implies vehicle headways follow a negative exponential distribution. Common queuing models for traffic include the M/D/1 model for deterministic arrivals and service, and the M/M/1 and M/M/N models for exponential arrivals and service times with one or multiple service channels. Equations are provided to calculate average queue length, wait time, and time in the system for these queuing models.

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Jacqueline Herrera Cruz Fabio
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443 views

Models of Traffic Flow

The document discusses models of traffic flow, including macroscopic and microscopic models. It introduces the Poisson distribution as a model for random vehicle arrivals. The Poisson model assumes vehicles arrive randomly with a constant average rate. This implies vehicle headways follow a negative exponential distribution. Common queuing models for traffic include the M/D/1 model for deterministic arrivals and service, and the M/M/1 and M/M/N models for exponential arrivals and service times with one or multiple service channels. Equations are provided to calculate average queue length, wait time, and time in the system for these queuing models.

Uploaded by

Jacqueline Herrera Cruz Fabio
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 5

Models of Traffic Flow


Introduction
• Macroscopic relationships and analyses
are very valuable, but
• A considerable amount of traffic
analysis occurs at the microscopic level
• In particular, we often are interested in
the elapsed time between the arrival of
successive vehicles (i.e., time headway)
Introduction
• The simplest approach to modeling vehicle
arrivals is to assume a uniform spacing
• This results in a deterministic, uniform arrival
pattern—in other words, there is a constant
time headway between all vehicles
• However, this assumption is usually
unrealistic, as vehicle arrivals typically follow
a random process
• Thus, a model that represents a random
arrival process is usually needed
Introduction
• First, to clarify what is meant by ‘random’:
• For a sequence of events to be considered
truly random, two conditions must be met:
1. Any point in time is as likely as any other for an
event to occur (e.g., vehicle arrival)
2. The occurrence of an event does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of another event
(e.g., the arrival of one vehicle at a point in time
does not make the arrival of the next vehicle
within a certain time period any more or less
likely)
Introduction
• One such model that fits this
description is the Poisson distribution
• The Poisson distribution:
– Is a discrete (as opposed to continuous)
distribution
– Is commonly referred to as a ‘counting
distribution’
– Represents the count distribution of
random events
Poisson Distribution
n  t
(t ) e
P(n) 
n!
P(n) = probability of having n vehicles arrive in time t
λ = average vehicle arrival rate in vehicles per unit time
t= duration of time interval over which vehicles are counted
e= base of the natural logarithm
Example Application
Given an average arrival rate of 360
veh/hr or 0.1 vehicles per second; with
t=20 seconds; determine the probability
that exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 vehicles
will arrive.
Poisson Example
• Example:
– Consider a 1-hour traffic volume of 120
vehicles, during which the analyst is
interested in obtaining the distribution of 1-
minute volume counts
Poisson Example
 What is the probability of more than 6
cars arriving (in 1-min interval)?
P n  6  1  P n  6
6
 1   P n  i 
i 0

P n  6   1  (0.135  0.271  0.271  0.180  0.090  0.036  0.012)


 1  0.995
 0.005 or (0.5%)
Poisson Example
 What is the probability of between 1
and 3 cars arriving (in 1-min interval)?

P1  n  3  P n  1  P n  2  P n  3

P1  n  3  27.1%  27.1%  18.0%


 72.2%
Poisson distribution
• The assumption of Poisson distributed
vehicle arrivals also implies a
distribution of the time intervals
between the arrivals of successive
vehicles (i.e., time headway)
Negative Exponential
• To demonstrate this, let the average arrival
rate, , be in units of vehicles per second, so
that q veh h veh
 
3600 sec h sec
 Substituting into Poisson equation
yields
n  qt
 t  qt 
(t ) e n
  e 3600

P(n)  P ( n)   3600 
n! n! (Eq. 5.25)
Negative Exponential
• Note that the probability of having no
vehicles arrive in a time interval of
length t [i.e., P (0)] is equivalent to
the probability of a vehicle headway,
h, being greater than or equal to the
time interval t.
Negative Exponential
• So from Eq. 5.25,
P ( 0)  P ( h  t ) (Eq. 5.26)

 qt Note:


 1 e 3600
e
 qt
3600 x0  1
1 0!  1

This distribution of vehicle headways is known as the negative


exponential distribution.
Negative Exponential Example
• Assume vehicle arrivals are Poisson
distributed with an hourly traffic flow of 360
veh/h.

Determine the probability that the headway


between successive vehicles will be less than
8 seconds.

Determine the probability that the headway


between successive vehicles will be between
8 and 11 seconds.
Negative Exponential Example
• By definition, P h  t   1  P h  t 

P  h  8  1  P  h  8
 qt
P  h  8  1  e 3600

 360 ( 8 )
 1 e 3600

 1  0.4493
 0.551
Negative Exponential Example

P 8  h  11  P h  11  P h  8
 1  P h  11  P h  8
360 (11)
 1 e 3600
 0.551
 1  0.3329  0.551
 0.1161
Negative Exponential
1.0

0.8 e^(-qt/3600)
Prob (h >= t)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time (sec)

For q = 360 veh/hr


Negative Exponential
c.d.f.
1.0

0.8
Probability (h < t)

0.6 1 - e^(-qt/3600)
0.551

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 8 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time (sec)
Queuing Systems
• Queue – waiting line
• Queuing models – mathematical
descriptions of queuing systems
• Examples – airplanes awaiting clearance
for takeoff or landing, computer print
jobs, patients scheduled for hospital’s
operating rooms
Characteristics of Queuing
Systems
• Arrival patterns – the way in which
items or customers arrive to be served
in a system (following a Poisson
Distribution, Uniform Distribution, etc.)
• Service facility – single or multi-server
• Service pattern – the rate at which
customers are serviced
• Queuing discipline – FIFO, LIFO
D/D/1 Queuing Models
• Deterministic arrivals
• Deterministic departures
• 1 service location (departure channel)
• Best examples maybe factory assembly
lines
Example
Vehicles arrive at a park which has one
entry points (and all vehicles must
stop). Park opens at 8am; vehicles
arrive at a rate of 480 veh/hr. After 20
min the flow rate decreases to 120
veh/hr and continues at that rate for
the remainder of the day. It takes 15
seconds to distribute the brochure.
Describe the queuing model.
M/D/1 Queuing Model
• M stands for exponentially distributed
times between arrivals of successive
vehicles (Poisson arrivals)
• Traffic intensity term is used to define the
ratio of average arrival to departure
rates: 
 

M/D/1 Equations
• When traffic intensity term < 1 and constant
steady state average arrival and departure
 2
rates: Q 
2 (1   )

w 
2  (1   )
2
t 
2  (1   )
M/M/1 Queuing Models
• Exponentially distributed arrival and
departure times and one departure channel
When traffic intensity term < 1
 2
Q 
1  

w 
 (   )
1
t 
  
M/M/N Queuing Models
• Exponentially distributed arrival and
departure times and multiple departure
channels (toll plazas for example)
• In this case, the restriction to apply these
equations is that the utilization factor must
be less than 1.

 1.0
N
M/M/N Models
1
P0  N 1
 nc N

nc  0 n c !

N ! (1   / N )
P0  N  1
 1 
Q   (1   / N ) 2 
N!N  
 Q 1
w  
 
 Q
t 

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