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Digital Simulation

Here are the steps to solve this problem using simulation: 1. Determine the probability distributions for supply and demand based on the historical data provided. 2. Generate random numbers between 0 and 1. 3. Map the random numbers to supply and demand quantities based on the cumulative probabilities. 4. Simulate sales for 6 days, determining profit/loss based on matching supply to demand each day. Track inventory and unsatisfied demand. 5. Calculate the total profit/loss over the 6 days. By simulating the random supply and demand over multiple days, we can estimate the retailer's expected profitability under uncertainty. This allows evaluation of different inventory management strategies.

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Jui Khare
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
211 views

Digital Simulation

Here are the steps to solve this problem using simulation: 1. Determine the probability distributions for supply and demand based on the historical data provided. 2. Generate random numbers between 0 and 1. 3. Map the random numbers to supply and demand quantities based on the cumulative probabilities. 4. Simulate sales for 6 days, determining profit/loss based on matching supply to demand each day. Track inventory and unsatisfied demand. 5. Calculate the total profit/loss over the 6 days. By simulating the random supply and demand over multiple days, we can estimate the retailer's expected profitability under uncertainty. This allows evaluation of different inventory management strategies.

Uploaded by

Jui Khare
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHAPTER 10

Simulation
Definition
• Simulation is a numerical technique for conducting
experiments on a digital computer which involves certain
types of mathematical and logical relationships necessary
to describe the behavior and structure of a complex real-
world system over extended period of time.
-Naylor et al.
• Simulation is the use of a system model that has the
designed characteristics of reality in order to produce the
essence of actual operation.
- Churchman
Process of Simulation
 Simulation: a descriptive method not optimizing
technique
 To simulate is to replicate a system
 Phases of simulation process:
Definition of the problem and statement of
objectives
Construction of an appropriate model
Experimentation with the model constructed
Evaluation of the results of simulation
3
Advantages and disadvantages of the Simulation

Advantages:
• To analyse large and complex real life problems
• Sensitivity analysis of complex system
• It allows the inclusion of additional information during
analysis.
• It’s a pre-service test without risk.
Disadvantage:
Does not generate answer by itself, user has to provide
constraints for the solution.
Monte Carlo Simulation
• In this given problem is solved by simulating the
original data with random number generation.
• It’s a numeric technique that involves modeling a
stochastic system with the objective of predicting the
system’s behavior.
• Process calls for:
Determination of random number intervals
Obtaining random numbers and finding the input values
corresponding to them
Carrying out needed simulation
• Is used extensively in areas like capital budgeting;
inventory control; queuing analysis; and project
management
5
1. Simulation of Inventory Problems
1. A bakery keeps stock of a popular brand of cake.
Previous experience shows the daily demand
pattern for the item with associated probabilities, as
given below:
Daily Demand in no. 0 10 20 30 40 50
Probability 0.01 0.20 0.15 0.50 0.12 0.02

Use the following sequence of random numbers to


simulate the demand for next 10 days, also estimate
the daily average demand for the cakes on the basis
of the simulated data
Random No. : 25, 39,65,76,12,05,73,89,19,49.
Using daily demand distribution, w obtain a probability
distribution as shown below

Daily Probabilit Cumulative Random number


Demand y probability interval
0 0.01 0.01 00
10 0.20 0.21 01-20
20 0.15 0.36 21-35
30 0.50 0.86 36-85
40 0.12 0.98 86-97
50 0.02 1.00 98-99

• Conducting simulation experiment for demand by taking


samples of 10 random numbers.
Days Random Number Demand
1 25 20
2 39 30
3 65 30
4 76 30
5 12 10
6 05 10
7 73 30
8 89 40
9 19 10
10 49 30
Total = 240

Expected demand =
240/10 = 24 units/day
Example 2
• A co. manufactures around 200 mopeds. Depending
upon the raw material availability & other conditions ,
the daily production has been varying from 196 mopeds
to 204 mopeds, whose probability distribution is as :
Daily 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
Production
Probability 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.06

• These mopeds are transported in lorry having capacity of


200 mopeds only. Using given random no.s simulate the
process to find out avg no. of mopeds waiting in the
factory & avg no. of empty spaces in the lorry
82, 89, 78, 24, 53, 61, 18, 45, 04, 23, 50, 77, 27, 54, & 10
Prod/day Probability Cum. Prob. Random no. Int.

Day no. Random No. Prod/Day No. of Empty


mopeds Spaces in
waiting the lorry.
2. Simulation of Queuing problems
1. A dentist schedules all his patients for 30-minute
appointments. The following summary shows the various
categories and other details. Simulate the dentist’s clinic for
4 hours and determine the average waiting time of the
patients as well as the idleness of the doctor. Assume that all
the patients show up at the clinic at exactly their scheduled
arrival time starting from 8 a.m. Use the given random
numbers for handling the above problem.
40, 82, 11, 34, 25, 66, 17, 79.
To determine random numbers interval

Category Time Prob. Cummu. Random no.


req.d Prob. interval
Filling 45 m 0.40 0.40 00-39
Crown 60 m 0.15 0.55 40-54
Cleaning 15 m 0.15 0.70 55-69
Extraction 45 m 0.10 0.80 70-79
Check-up 15 m 0.20 1.00 80-99
Simulation Worksheet: Dentist’s Clinic
Patient Arrival Random Service Service Service Waiting Idle
Time number time begins ends time time
1 8.00 40 60 8.00 am 9.00 0 0
2 8.30 82 15 9.00 9.15 30 0
3 9.00 11 45 9.15 10.00 15 0
4 9.30 34 45 10.00 10.45 30 0
5 10.00 25 45 10.45 11.30 45 0
6 10.30 66 15 11.30 11.45 60 0
7 11.00 17 45 11.45 12.30 pm 45 0
8 11.30 79 45 12.30 pm 1.15 pm 60 0
Total 285 0

Doctor’s idle time = nil, Avg waitg time= 285/8 = 35.6 minutes
Assignment no. 3 Ex- 1
1. A firm has single channel service station with the
following arrival and service time probability distribution.
The customer’s arrival at the service station is a random
phenomenon and the time between the arrivals varies
from 10 min to 30 min. The queuing process begins at 10
a.m. and proceeds for nearly 8 hours. An arrival goes to
the service facility immediately, if it is free. Otherwise it
will wait in a queue. The queue discipline is FCFS. If the
attendant’s wages are Rs.10/hr and the customer’s
waiting time costs Rs.15/hr, then would it be an
economical proposition to engage a second attendant?
Use Monte-Carlo simulation technique.
Assignment no. 3: Ex -1

Inter arrival Probability Service time Probability


time (minutes) (minutes)
10 0.10 5 0.08
15 0.25 10 0.14
20 0.30 15 0.18
25 0.25 20 0.24
30 0.10 25 0.22
30 0.14
Assignment no. 3: Ex - 2
1. A small retailer deals in a perishable commodity, the
daily demand and supply of which are random
variables. The past 500 days data show the following:

Supply Demand
Available(kg) No. of Days Demand No. of days
(kg)
10 40 10 50
20 50 20 110
30 190 30 200
40 150 40 100
50 70 50 40
Assignment no. 3: Ex - 2
• The retailer buys commodity at Rs. 20/kg & sells
at Rs. 30/kg. If any of the commodity remains at
the end of the day it has no resale value and is a
dead loss. Moreover, the loss on any unsatisfied
demand is Rs. 8/kg. Given the following random
numbers. Simulate six days sales:
311863841579 073243758127
use the random no. alternatively.

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