Do Now The diagram shows a 6-sided shape.

The area of the shape is 25cm2.

A Show that 6x2 + 17x – 39 = 0

A (3x – 2)(2x + 5) B 2(3x – 2)

6x2 + 15x – 4x – 10 6x – 4
6x2 + 11x – 10
Area of total shape 6x2 + 11x – 10 + 6x – 4
6x2 + 17x – 14 = 25cm2 Subtract 25 from
both sides
6x2 + 17x – 39 = 0
 3/3/21
Probability & Tree Diagrams
Driving Question – How do you draw a tree diagram with dependant
events?
Success Criteria:
To be able to calculate probability from a two way table.

To be able to draw a tree diagram with independent events.

To be able to draw a tree diagram with dependent events

How do we measure probability?
All probabilities are between 0 and 1

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

0 1 1 3 1
4 2 4

Impossible Unlikely Evens Likely Certain

On a fair dice, what is the probability of getting:
1
1) Getting a 3
6
1
2) Getting an even number
2

3) Getting a prime number 1

2
Complete the table:
3
4) Getting a 2
5 Probability of the Probability of the
Event
1 event occurring event not
5) Not getting a 6
6 3 occurring
2
A 5 5
6) Getting a 7 0
B 0.77 0.23
9 11
C 20 20

D 8% 92%
Probability
100 students were set maths homework.
42 of these students were boys.
8 out of 100 students did not do their homework.
53 girls did do their homework.
A student is chosen at random, what is the probability they are a boy who did
not complete their homework?

HWK No HWK Total

Girls 53 5 58
Boys 39 3 42
Total 92 8 100 3
/100
Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram is a way of representing

the probabilities of two or more events in
a diagram.
Tree Diagrams

In probability the word “and” means that

probabilities are multiplied.

The word “or” means that probabilities are

added.
The probability that it will rain on Monday is 0.2. The probability that it
will rain on Tuesday is 0.3. What is the probability that it will rain on
Monday and Tuesday?
P(RR) = 0.06
Monday Tuesday
Rain 0.2 x 0.3 = 0.06
0.3
0.2 Rain
0.7 No Rain 0.2 x 0.7 = 0.14

0.3 Rain 0.8 x 0.3 = 0.24

0.8
No
Rain 0.7 No Rain 0.8 x 0.7 = 0.56
I have a bag of counters, 2 blue and 8 red. I pick one counter out
without looking and put it back in the bag, I then pick out another
counter. What is the probability that I pick out a red and then a blue
counter?
Counter Counter P(RB) = 0.16
1 2
Red 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64
0.8
0.8 Red
Blue 0.8 x 0.2 = 0.16
0.2
0.8 Red 0.2 x 0.8 = 0.16
0.2
Blue
Blue 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04
0.2
I place a bet on the outcome of two football matches. The probability I
 

win on the first match is and the probability I win on the second
match is . Work out the different probabilities for every outcome.

Match 1 Match 2
 𝟑 P(WW)=  𝟏 x   𝟑 =   𝟑
 
𝟏 𝟏𝟎 Win 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎 Win P(WL)=  𝟏 x  𝟕 =   𝟕
 𝟕 Lose
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
 𝟑 P(LW)=   𝟗 x   𝟑 =  𝟐𝟕
 
𝟗 𝟏𝟎
Win 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎 Lose 𝟕 P(LL) =  𝟗 x   𝟕 =  𝟔𝟑
 
Lose 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎
1. There are 2 sets of traffic lights on a journey. A car approaches the
first set where the probability of stopping is 0.7. The car then gets to
the second set where the probability of stopping is 0.4. Draw a tree
diagram and find the probability of each possible outcome.

2. Julie and Pat are going to the cinema. The probability that Julie will
arrive late is 0.2. The probability that Pat will arrive late is 0.6. Draw
a tree diagram and find the probability of each possible outcome.

3. Samia travels to school by train every day. The probability that her
train will be late on any day is 0.3. Draw a tree diagram for Monday
and Tuesday and find the probability for each possible outcome.
1. There are 2 sets of traffic lights on a journey. A car approaches the
first set where the probability of stopping is 0.7. The car then gets to
the second set where the probability of stopping is 0.4.

Traffic Lights Traffic Lights

1 2
Stop 0.7 x 0.4 = 0.28
0.4
0.7 Stop
0.6 No Stop 0.7 x 0.6 = 0.42

0.4 Stop 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.12

0.3
No
Stop 0.6 No Stop 0.3 x 0.6 = 0.18
2. Julie and Pat are going to the cinema. The probability that
Julie will arrive late is 0.2. The probability that Pat will
arrive late is 0.6.

Julie Pat

Late 0.2 x 0.6 = 0.12

0.6
0.2 Late
0.4 On Time 0.2 x 0.4 = 0.08

0.6 Late 0.8 x 0.6 = 0.48

0.8
On
Time 0.4 On Time 0.8 x 0.4 = 0.32
3. Samia travels to school by train every day. The probability
that her train will be late on any day is 0.3. Draw a tree
diagram for Monday and Tuesday and find the probability
for each possible outcome.
Monday Tuesday
Late 0.3 x 0.3 = 0.09
0.3
0.3 Late
0.7 On Time 0.3 x 0.7 = 0.21

0.3 Late 0.7 x 0.3 = 0.21

0.7
On
Time 0.7 On Time 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49
 Simon plays one game of tennis and one game of snooker.
 
The probability that Simon will win at snooker is
 
The probability that Simon will win at tennis is
a) Complete the tree diagram
b) Probability that Simon Snooker  𝟑 Tennis
wins both one snooker and 𝟒 Win
𝟏
 

𝟑 Win  𝟏
  one tennis
𝟏 𝟑  𝟑 game.
   𝟏 Lose
𝟒
x = =
𝟑 𝟒 𝟏𝟐 𝟒  𝟑
  𝟐 Win
c) Probability that Simon 𝟒
𝟑
will win one snooker Lose  𝟏
game or one tennis game. Lose
𝟒
  𝟏  𝟏  𝟐  𝟑  𝟏  𝟔  𝟕
x + x = + =
𝟑 𝟒 𝟑 𝟒 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐
Loren has two bags. The first bag contains 3 red counters and 2 blue
counters. The second bag contains 2 red counters and 5 blue counters.
Loren takes one counter at random from each bag.
Second
a) Complete the tree diagram
First Bag Bag
 𝟐
b) Probability that Loren Red
𝟕
takes two red counters. 𝟑
 

  𝟑  𝟐  𝟔 𝟓 Red  𝟓
x = Blue
𝟓 𝟕 𝟑𝟓 𝟕
 𝟐
c) Probability that Loren   𝟐 Red
𝟕
takes one red or one 𝟓
blue counter.
Blue  𝟓
Blue
  𝟑  𝟓  𝟐  𝟐  𝟏𝟓  𝟒  𝟏𝟗 𝟕
x + x = + =
𝟓 𝟕 𝟓 𝟕 𝟑𝟓 𝟑𝟓 𝟑𝟓
1st throw 2nd throw What is the probabiliy of throwing two
H heads?
0.5 0.25
H What is the probability of throwing two
0.5
0.5 T tails?

0.5
H 0.25
0.5
T What is the probability of throwing a
head followed by a tail?
0.5
T
0.25
This tree diagram shows
the probability of scoring What is the probability of throwing one
a head or a tail when a head and one tail in the two throws?
coin is thrown twice. 0.5
 1st Set 2nd Set What is the probability of both lights
Red being on red?
0.2 0.06
Red What is the probability of the first set of
0.3
0.8 Not Red lights being red and the second not red?

0.2
Red 0.24
0.7 Not
Red What is the probability of neither set of
lights being on red?
0.8 Not Red
0.56
This tree diagram shows
the probability of two sets What is the probability of only one set of
of traffic lights being on lights being on red?
red on a journey to work. 0.38
 Soup Desert What is the probability that the pupil has
Yes soup?
0.7 0.1
Yes What is the probability that the pupil
0.1
0.3 No only has a dessert?

0.7
Yes 0.24
0.9 No
What is the probability that the pupil
only has soup?
0.3 No
0.03
A pupil sometimes has soup and
sometimes has dessert as part of What is the probability that the pupil has
their lunch. This tree diagram neither soup nor a dessert?
shows the probabilities of this.
0.27
Ryan and Jack each have a bag of sweets. In Ryan’s bag there are 3 blue
sweets and 5 red sweets. In Jack’s bag there are 2 blue sweets and 3 red
sweets. The boys each take a sweet at random from their own bag.
a) Work out the probability that the sweets will both be blue.
b) Work out the probability that the sweets will each have a different
colour  
a)  
b)

On her way home from work Taylor must drive through two sets of
traffic lights. The probability that she will be stopped at the first set is
0.4. The probability she will be stopped at the second set is 0.7.
a) Work out the probability that she will be stopped by only one set
of traffic lights.
a) 0.54
 “Dependent” Events

All of the examples we have looked at so far are “independent”

events, where the first event does not impact the second event.

Dependent events are events whose probability is dependent

on what has happened previously.

This usually involves something not being replaced.

  4 Blue A bag contains 5 blue
 3
9 counters, 3 red counters
9
Red and 2 green counters. If I
Blue take out one counter and
 2 Green
don’t put it back in the
 5 9
bag, then take another,
10 Blue What is the probability I
 5  2
 3 9 9 choose two blue
10
Red counters?
Red  2 Green
9  5
 
𝟓    𝟒  
𝟐𝟎
 2
9  3 Blue 𝟏𝟎 𝒙 𝟗
 
¿ 𝟗𝟎
10
Green 9
Red  
𝟐
 1
9 Green
 
¿ 𝟗
  2 Purple A packet of sweets
 7
11 contains 3 purple sweets,
11
Red 7 red sweets and 2
Purple orange sweets. I eat one
 2 Orange
sweet and then take
 3 11
another, What is the
12  6
Purple probability I eat two red
 3
 7 11 sweets?
11
12 Red
Red  2 Orange  
𝟕  
𝟔  
𝟒𝟐
 2
11  3
11 Purple 𝟏𝟐
 
𝒙 𝟏𝟏
 
¿ 𝟏𝟑𝟐
12  7
Orange 11
Red
 
𝟕
 1
11 Orange
 
¿ 𝟐𝟐
1. A bag contains 3 yellow counters, 2 blue counters and 5 orange
counters. I take out one counter and don’t put it back in the bag,
then take another. Draw a tree diagram to represent this
information.

2. A packet of chocolate contains 5 milk chocolate pieces, 7 white

chocolate pieces and 3 dark chocolate pieces. I eat one piece of
chocolate and then take another. Draw a tree diagram and find the
probability of each possible outcome happening.

3. A packet of sweets contains 6 purple sweets, 4 red sweets and 2

orange sweets. I eat one sweet and then take another, What is the
probability I eat two purple sweets?
  2 Yellow 1. A bag contains 3
 2
9 yellow counters, 2
9
Blue blue counters and 5
Yellow orange counters. I
 5 Orange take out one counter
 3 9
and don’t put it back
10 Yellow in the bag, then take
 3  1
2 9 9 another.
Blue
 
10
Blue
 5 Orange
9  3
 5
9 Yellow
10  2

Orange 9
Blue
 4
9 Orange
  4 Milk 2. A packet of chocolate
 7
14 contains 5 milk
14
White chocolate pieces, 7
Milk white chocolate pieces
 3 Dark and 3 dark chocolate
 5 14
pieces. I eat one piece
15 Milk of chocolate and then
 5  6
 7 14 14 take another. Draw a
15
White tree diagram and find
White
 3 Dark the probability of each
14   5 possible outcome
 3
14 Milk happening.
15  7
14
Dark White
 2
14 Dark
  5 Purple 3. A packet of sweets
 4
11 contains 6 purple
11
Red sweets, 4 red sweets
Purple and 2 orange sweets. I
 2 Orange
eat one sweet and
 6 11
then take another,
12  3
Purple What is the
 6
 4 11 probability I eat two
11
12 Red purple sweets?
Red  2 Orange  
𝟔  
𝟓  
𝟑𝟎
 2
11  6
11 Purple 𝟏𝟐
 
𝒙 𝟏𝟏  
¿ 𝟏𝟑𝟐
12  4
Orange 11
Red 𝟓
 

 1
11 Orange
 
¿ 𝟐𝟐