The Investment / Capital Budgeting Decision
The Investment / Capital Budgeting Decision
• NPV = Ai - Io =0
• i=1 (1+K)i
• Where Ai is the cash flow in period i, K is the required rate of return
by the investor (discounting factor), Io is the cash outlay today and n
is the number of years of the useful life of the investment.
• Illustration:
• A.K. Ltd is proposing to expand its business by adding another
production line. The investment will cost Shs.200m and will realize
the following cash inflows over a period of 5 years.
• Year Cash inflow (in millions)
• 1 40m
• 2 60m
• 3 80m
• 4 50m
• 5 70m
• The companies required rate of return is 10%. The NPV of this
investment would be;
The companies required rate of return is 10%. The NPV of this investment would be;
Year Cash flow PV factor (10%) PV
(in millions)
0 (200) 1.000 (200)
1 40 0.909 36.36
2 60 0.826 49.56
3 80 0.751 60.08
4 50 0.683 34.15
5 70 0.621 43.47
NPV = 23.62
• For the case of uniform cash flow stream e.g. If
the investment will cost Shs.200m is 20m
expected per year over the 5 year period then PV
of inflows = Shs.200m [Present Value annuity
factor at 10% for 5 years]
• = 20m x [3.791]- 200m
• IRR = Ai - Io
• i=1 (1+K)i
• Thus:
• n
• IRR = Ai - I o = 0
• i=1 (1+K)i
• Determination of IRR is by trial and error. If at
first attempt using a certain rate K, the NPV is
positive then you should try a higher one. If
on the other hand on first attempt the NPV is
negative, then you should try a lower rate.
• Using the example of AK Ltd, since NPV is
positive, then we use a higher rate i.e. 15%.
Year Cash flow PV factor (15%) PV (in millions)
0 (200) 1.000 (200)
1 40 0.870 34.80
2 60 0.756 45.36
3 80 0.658 52.64
4 50 0.572 28.60
5 70 0.497 34.79
NPV 3.81
• IRR= Lower rate +
(difference between PV of lower rate and at IRR)
(difference between PV inflows at lower rate and at
high rate)
X (difference between the two rates)
10 % + (223.62-200) x 5%
( 223.2-196.19)
IRR = 14.305%
= 14.31%
• Decision rule/acceptance criteria:
• Accept investments whose IRR is greater than RRR and
reject those investments whose IRR is less than RRR.
This is because investments with IRR>RRR would imply
a positive NPV, while those with IRR<RRR imply a
negative NPV hence changes wealth of the firm;
• Advantages/Merits of IRR:
• Recognizes time value of money
• Uses cash flows which are consistent with objective of
firm
• Demerits:
• You may fail to get a rate that equates the
present value of benefits to that of outlays.
• Calculation of IRR is complicated.
• There is a problem of multiple internal rates of
return.
•
3.Profitability Index (PI):
Profitability index is the ratio of present value of cash
inflows to present value of initial outlay.
• PI = Present Value of Cash inflows
Present Value of Initial Outlay.
• In the example of A. K. Ltd.,
• PI = 223.62
200
= 1.1181
• PI = 1.1
• Decision rule/acceptance criteria:
• Investments with PI greater than one are accepted because
this would imply positive NPV hence increasing the wealth of
the firm. Investments with PI less than one should be
rejected.
• Merits:
• Recognizes time value of money.
• Easy to compute and use.
• Uses cash flows which are consistent to the objective of wealth
maximization.
• Demerits:
• Need to adjust financial statement figures to
determine cash flows which is time
consuming.
SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS IN CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISIONS
• Projects
Project NPV Outlay Bundle Total NPV Total Outlay (Cost)
A 200m 100m A+D 362m 190m
B (15)m 30m A+C 340m 170m
C 140m 70m A+E 275m 140m
D 162m 90m A+F 240m 180m
E 76m 40m D+C+E 378m 200m
F 40m 80m C+E+F 256m 190m
Note: Exhaust all possible bundles
• The best bundle will be D+C+E because it has the highest NPV
and exhausts the budget completely hence we select these
investments.