Engineering Economic Analysis
Engineering Economic Analysis
Analysis
10/15/20 rd 1
Irrelevant Characteristics
Monetary Units
Dollars
Pounds
Yen
Marks
Effective Period
Day Month Year Century
10/15/20 rd 2
Interest and Equivalence
10/15/20 rd 3
Why Engineering Economy?
10/15/20 rd 4
Time Value of Money
10/15/20 rd 5
Cash Flow Diagram
P ~ Present at time 0; F ~ Future A ~ Uniform or Equal
G ~ Gradient i ~ effective interest n ~ Number of pay periods
F
ie nt
r ad
g
A uniform
0 1 2 3 4 5 n
I = 7%
10/15/20 rd 6
Compounding Process
Given: i = 10%
n = 7 years
P = $3000 F = P(1 + i)n
Find: F = 3000(1 + 0.10)7 compounding factor
= $5846.15
P = F(1 + i)-n
Discounting factor
F = P(F/P, i%, n)
Genie command is (FGP 3000 10 7) 5846.15
10/15/20 rd 7
F/P
10/15/20 rd 8
(F/P, i%, n)
formula
F given P; F = P(1 + i)n = 1000(1 + 0.04)5 1000(1.2167)
= 1216.652 1216.70
calculator table
F = 1216.65
i = 4% compounded annually
n= 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 … n-2 n-1 n
10/15/20 rd 10
(F/A, i%, n)
F given A; F = A(F/A, i%, n); F = 500(5.4163, 4%, 5)
= $2708.16
(1 i ) n 1 (1 0.04)5 1
(F/A, i%, n) = 5.4163
i 0.04
F = $2708.16 = (F/A 500 4 5)
i = 4%
0 1 2 3 4 5
A = $500
10/15/20 rd 11
P/A
F/A P/F
n n
P/A = F * P = (1+i) -1 * 1
(1+i) -1
n
A F i (1+i) i(1+i) n
10/15/20 rd 12
A/F & A/P
A[(1+i) n -1]
F/A
i
Fi
A/F =
(1+i) n -1
F P A[(1+i) n -1]
P/A * =
A F i(1+i) n
A F Pi(1+i) n
A/P *
F P (1+i) n -1
10/15/20 rd 13
Compound Interest Factors 7%
10/15/20 rd 14
Relationships
a. (F/P, i%, n) = i(F/A, i%, n) + 1
b. (P/F, i%, n) = 1 – i(P/A,i%, n)
c. (A/F, i%, n) = (A/P, i%, n) – i
d. (A/P i%, n) = i / [1 – (P/F, i%, n)]
e. Find (F/P, 10%, 37)
(F/P, 10%, 37) = (F/P, 10%, 35)(F/P, 10%, 2)
= 28.1024 *1.21
= 34.0039
f. (P/A, i%, n) – (P/A, i%, n-1) = (P/F, i%, n)
10/15/20 rd CW3B-15
Computing Cash Flows
You bought a machine for $30,000. You can either pay the full price now
with a 3% discount, or pay $5000 now; at the end of 1 year pay $8000,
then at the end of the next 4 years pay $6,000. i = 7% compound yearly.
0 1 2 3 4 5
10/15/20 rd 16
Option 2
0 1 2 3 4 5
7%
compounded
-$5000 -$6000 -$6000 -$6000 -$6000 annually
-$8000
10/15/20 rd 17
Simple Interest
Simple interest is: P * i * n = Pin
10/15/20 rd 18
Compound Interest
10/15/20 rd 19
Equivalence
10/15/20 rd 20
Equivalence
10/15/20 rd 21
Equivalence
Your borrow $5,000 at 8% compounded annually.
You may return the $5,000 immediately, or pay according to
Plan A or Plan B The 3 options are equivalent.
n 1 2 3 4 5
A -1400 -1320 -1240 -1160 -1080
B -400 -400 -400 -400 -5400
10/15/20 rd 22
Re-Payment Plans
APR = 8%
n owed interest total principal total
for year owed owed payment paid ( P+I)
10/15/20 rd 23
Re-Payment Plans
APR = 8%
n owed interest total principal total
for year owed owed payment paid
1 $5000 $400 $5400 $0 $400
2 5000 400 5400 0 400
3 5000 400 5400 0 400
4 5000 400 5400 0 400
5 5000 400 5400 5000 5400
$2000 $7000
(IRR '(-5000 400 400 400 400 5400)) 8%
10/15/20 rd 24
Re-Payment Plans
APR = 8%
n owed interest total principal total
for year owed owed payment paid
1 $5000 $400 $5400 $ 852 $1252.28
2 4148 331 4479 921 1252.28
3 3227 258 3484 994 1252.28
4 2233 178 2411 1074 1252.28
5 1159 93 1252 1159 1252.28
$1260 $ 6261.40
(IRR '(-5000 1252.28 1252.28 1252.28 1252.28 1252.28)) 8%
10/15/20 rd 25
Re-Payment Plans
APR = 8%
n owed interest total principal total
for year owed owed payment paid
1 $5000 $400 $5400 $ 0 $ 0
2 5400 432 5832 0 0
3 5832 467 6299 0 0
4 6299 504 6803 0 0
5 6803 544 7347 5000 7347
$2347 $5000 7347
(IRR '(-5000 0 0 0 0 7347)) 8%
10/15/20 rd 26
Equivalence
-5 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0
1400 400 1252.28 0
1320 400 1252.28 0
1240 400 1252.28 0
1160 400 1252.28 0
1080 5400 1252.28 7347
8.000% 8.000% 8.000% 8.001%
10/15/20 rd 27
Simple vs. Compound Interest
Fs = P(1 + ni) Simple interest
Fc = P(1 + i)n Compound interest
Given P = $24, i = 5%, n = 20 years vs. compounded annually.
Fs = 24(1 + 20 * 0.05) = $48
Fc = 24(1.05)20 = $63.68.
10/15/20 rd 28
Effective Interest Rate
Annual Percentage Rate (APR) r; for example, 12% per year
Effective interest rate ieff APY ~ annual percent yield
r m
(1+ ) -1
ieff = m , where m is the number of pay periods
10/15/20 rd 30
Effective Interest Rate
$1000 is invested for 5 years at 12% APR compounded monthly.
Compute its future worth using effective
10/15/20 rd 31
Interest Rates
You borrow $1000 and agree to repay with 12 equal
monthly payments of $90.30.
Find the a) effective monthly interest rate.
b) nominal annual interest rate
c) effective annual interest rate.
a) 1000 = 90.30(P/A, i%, 12) => P/A factor = 11.0742
=> imonth-eff = 1.25%
b) APR = 12 * 1.25% = 15%
10/15/20 rd 32
Continuous Compounding
10/15/20 rd 33
Continuous Compounding
10/15/20 rd 34
Problem
$100 at time 0 is $110 at time pay period 1 and
was $90 at time pay period –1.
Find the APR for year –1 to 0 and for 0 to 1.
100 = 90(1 + i) => i = 11.11% 90 100 110
10/15/20 rd 35
Problem
You plan to make 2 deposits, $25K now and $30K at the end
of year 6. You draw out $C each year for the first 6 years and
C + 1000 each year for the next 6 years. Find C at 10%
interest compounded annually.
1 6 12
25K 30K
10/15/20 rd 36
Time to Double
10/15/20 rd 37
Computing i given P, F and n
F = P(1 + i)n
i = (F/P)1/n – 1
Example: What interest rate generates $3456 in
5 years by investing $1000 now?
i = 3.4561/5 – 1 = 28.14886%.
(IGPFN 1000 3456 5) 28.14886
10/15/20 rd 38
Computing n given P, F and i
F = P(1 + i)n
n = Ln (F/P) / Ln (1 + i)
10/15/20 rd 39
Arithmetic Gradient
(n – 2)G (n -1)G
2G
G
A
0 1 2 3 . . . n -1 n
Gradient begins in Year 2
P = A(P/A, i%, n) + G(P/G, i%, n)
10/15/20 rd 40
11. Given the cash flow in the diagram below, find the present
worth value at time 0 with interest rate 5% per year.
1300
1200
1100
1000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
10/15/20 rd 41
Arithmetic Gradient
Find the present worth of the following cash flow at 7%
compounded annually: A = 50, G = 20
n 1 2 3 4 5 6
cf 50 70 90 110 130 150
10/15/20 rd 42
Geometric Gradient
A1; A2 = A1 + gA1 = A1(1 + g);
A3 = A2 +gA2 = A1(1 + g) + gA1(1 + g) = A1(1 + g)2
An = A1(1 + g)n-1
Pn = An(P/F, i%, n) = An(1 + i)-n
= A1(1 + g)n-1(1 + i)-n
P = A1(1 + i)-n
1 (1 g ) n (1 i ) n
A1
(P/A1, i, g, n) = ig
10/15/20 rd 43
Geometric Gradient
10/15/20 rd 44
Geometric Gradient
Example: Calculate the present worth of a contract awarded at
$1000 per year and increasing at a uniform rate of 10% per
year for 5 years at 7% APR compounded annually.
10/15/20 rd 45
Geometric Gradient
A modification costs $8K, expected to last 6 years with a $1300
salvage value. Maintenance is $1700 the first year and
increasing 11% per year thereafter. The interest rate is 8%.
Find the present worth.
10/15/20 rd 46
Problem 3-11
n 0 1 2 3 4
cf -100 25 45 45 30
10/15/20 rd 47
Problem 3-12
10/15/20 rd 48
Problem 3-15
10/15/20 rd 49
Manhattan Island
10/15/20 rd 50
Learning Curve
The time to make the first unit is $1000 and the learning curve is 90%.
What is the cost to make the 2nd, 4th and 8th units?
T2 = 1000 * 2(log 0.90 2) = 1000 *2 -0.1520 = $900
T4 = 0.90 * $900 = $810
T8 = 0.90 * $810 = $729.
(sim-lc 1000 8 90) Unit Hours Cumulative
1 1000.00 1000.00
2 900.00 1900.00
3 846.21 2746.21
4 810.00 3556.21
5 782.99 4339.19
6 761.59 5100.78
7 743.95 5844.73
8 729.00 6573.73
10/15/20 rd 51
Cost of a Mortgage
Interest Rate
Loan Amount
Payment Frequency
Points (Prepaid interest of 1% of loan)
Fees (application, loan origination)
10/15/20 rd 52
Principal Reduction and Interest Paid for
each payment
A = P(A/P, i%, N)
10/15/20 rd 53
Mortgage Payments
Loan = $10,000 Interest 10%/year N = 10 years
10/15/20 rd 54
Computing the Balance
On a loan of $10,000 for 10 years at 10% per year,
determine the annual payment and the balance after 6
years.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10/15/20 rd 55
Points or No Points
You finance a home for $100K at 15 year interest rate. You can
either pay one point with 6.375% interest or no points with 6.75%
interest compounded monthly.
The 1 point implies that you get $99K but get charged as if you
borrowed $100K
10/15/20 rd 56
Monthly Payments
10/15/20 rd 57
Mortgage Payments
You take out a loan for $350,000 at 6% APR compounded monthly for 30
years.
a) Your monthly payment is _________.
b) The principal reduction PR225 is ________.
c) The interest paid Int225 at this payment is _______.
d) The total interest paid to date at this payment is _______.
e) The balance at this payment is __________.
f) The per cent of your loan paid by the 225th is ______.
10/15/20 rd 58
Compound Continuously
10/15/20 rd 59
Interest Rate
10/15/20 rd 60
Equivalence
1 2 3 4 5
A = $500
10/15/20 rd 61
Preference
10/15/20 rd 62
P/A
(1 i ) n 1 e0.935 1
P/A = i (1 i ) n (e0.0935 1)e0.935 6.1974%
10/15/20 rd 63
Time Value of Money
10/15/20 rd 64
Problem 3-19
8250(1.04)-4 = $7052.13
10/15/20 rd 65
Problem 3-23
3000(1.05)2 = $3307.50
3000(1.0125)8 = $3313.46
$5.96
10/15/20 rd 66
Problem 3-24
0 1 2 0 1 2 3
10/15/20 rd 67
Problem 3-27
F = 60(1.05)10 = $97.73
10/15/20 rd 68
10/15/20 rd 69
Find A to equate the series at 10% compounded annually.
120 120 120
100 100
1 2 3 4 5
P0 = 100(P/A,10%,2) + 120(P/A,10%,3)(P/F,10%,2)
A A A A
1 2 3 4 5
P0 = A(P/A,10%,4)(P/F,10%,1) = $420.18 => A = $145.81
10/15/20 rd CW3B-70