Statistical Concept and Principle
Statistics
• Definition: Science of collection, presentation, analysis,
and reasonable interpretation of data.
• Statistics presents a rigorous scientific method for
gaining insight into data. For example, suppose we
measure the weight of 100 patients in a study. With so
many measurements, simply looking at the data fails to
provide an informative account. However statistics can
give an instant overall picture of data based on graphical
presentation or numerical summarization irrespective to
the number of data points. Besides data summarization,
another important task of statistics is to make inference
and predict relations of variables.
Division of Statistics (1/2)
• Descriptive statistics are methods for
organizing and summarizing data.
• For example, tables or graphs are used to
organize data, and descriptive values such as
the average score are used to summarize data.
• A descriptive value for a population is called a
parameter and a descriptive value for a
sample is called a statistic.
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Division of Statistics (2/2)
• Inferential statistics are methods for using sample
data to make general conclusions (inferences) about
populations.
• Because a sample is typically only a part of the whole
population, sample data provide only limited
information about the population. As a result,
sample statistics are generally imperfect
representatives of the corresponding population
parameters.
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Population vs. Sample
• Population-consists of all the members of the
group about which we want to draw a
conclusion
• Sample-a portion, or part of the population of
interest selected for analysis.
Sampling Procedure and Collection of Data
Sources of Data
• Primary Data- data that come from an original
source and are intended
• Secondary Data-data that are taken from
previously recorded data
Constant and variable
• Constant-a constant is a characteristics of
objects, people, or events that does not vary.
• Variable- is a characteristics of objects,
people, or events that can take of different
values.
Types of Data
• Qualitative Variable- observation that are put
in the same or different classes.
• Quantitative Variable-yield frequencies when
counted.
Classification of Variables
• Experimental Classification
– Independent variables
– Dependent Variables
• Mathematical Classification
– Continuous Variable
– Discrete Variable
Sampling Techniques
• Random Sampling
– Simple Random Sampling
– Systematic Sampling
– Stratified Sampling
• Non-Random Sampling
– Convenience Sampling
– Purposive Sampling
– Quota Sampling
– Snowball Sampling
Methods of Collecting Data
• Direct or Interview Method
• Indirect or Questionnaire
• Registration Method
• Observation Method
• Experiment Method
Methods of Presenting Data
• Textual Method
• Tabular Method
• Graphical Method
Measures of Location: The Sample Mean
and Median
• Measures of location are designed to provide
the analyst with some quantitative values of
where the center, or some other location, of
data is located.
• Sample Mean-
• Sample Median-
Other Measure of Locations
• Trimmed means
– A trimmed mean is computed by “trimming away”
a certain percent of both the largest and the
smallest set of values.
Example
The following measurements were recorded for the drying time, in
hours, of a certain brand of latex paint.
(a) What is the sample size for the above sample?
(b) Calculate the sample mean for these data.
(c) Calculate the sample median.
(e) Compute the 40% trimmed mean for the above data set.
(d) Plot the data by way of a dot plot.
a.) 15
b.) 3.787
c.) 3.6
d.)
e.)
Measures of Variability
• Sample Variance
• Sample Standard Deviation
• Sample Range
R= X(max)-X(min)
Example
A manufacturer of electronic components is
interested in determining the lifetime of a
certain type of battery. A sample, in hours of
life, is as follows:
123, 116, 122, 110, 175, 126, 125, 111, 118, 117.
(a) Find the sample mean and median.
• Mean = 124.3
• Median = 120
Probability
• Probability is the likelihood or chance of an
event occurring.
• Probability the number of ways of achieving
success. the total number of possible
outcomes.
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical
experiment is called the sample space and is
represented by the symbol S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called an
element or a member of the sample space, or
simply a sample point.
Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we
are interested in the number that shows on
the top face, the sample space is
An experiment consists of flipping a coin and
then flipping it a second time if a head occurs.
If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is
tossed once. Find the sample space.
• In probability an event is the set of an
outcome of an experiment (is a subset of a
sample space).
The complement of an event A with respect to S is
the subset of all elements of S that are not in A.
We denote the complement of A by the symbol A’.
Example: Let R be the event that a red card is
selected from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards, and let S be the entire deck. Then R’ is the
event that the card selected from the deck is not
a red card but a black card.
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted
by the symbol A ∩ B, is the event containing all
elements that are common to A and B.
Example: Let E be the event that a person
selected at random in a classroom is majoring in
engineering, and let F be the event that the
person is female. Then E ∩ F is the event of all
female engineering students in the classroom.
• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or
disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ, that is, if A and B have no
elements in common.
Example: Turning left and turning right are Mutually
Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time)
Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive
Cards: Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive
The union of the two events A and B, denoted by
the symbol A∪ B, is the event containing all
the elements that belong to A or B or both.
Example: Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e};
then A ∪ B = {a, b, c, d, e}.
Counting Sample Points
Rule 1: If an operation can be performed in n1
ways, and if for each of these ways a second
operation can be performed in n2 ways, then
the two operations can be performed together
in n1n2 ways.
Example: How many sample points are there in
the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown
once?
1. A developer of a new subdivision offers
prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor,
rustic, colonial, and traditional exterior styling
in ranch, two-story, and split-level floor plans.
In how many different ways can a buyer order
one of these homes?
2. If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair
and a treasurer, how many different ways can
these two to be elected?
Counting Sample Points
Rule 2: If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if
for each of these a second operation can be performed in
n2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can
be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then the sequence
of k operations can be performed in n1n2 · · · nk ways.
Example: Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He
has the choice of chips from two brands, a hard drive from
four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from
five local stores. How many different ways can Sam order
the parts?
• If an experiment consists of throwing a die
and then drawing a letter from the alphabet,
how many points are in the sample space?
Counting Sample Points
Rule 3: A permutation is an arrangement of all
or part of a set of objects. The number of
permutations of n objects is n!
Example: How many permutations for the three
letters a, b, and c.
In how many ways can 5 CIE Examinees be lined
up to go inside the testing centers?
Rule 4: The number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is nPr = n! / (n – r)!.
• Example: The number of permutations of the
four letters a, b, c, and d will be 4! = 24. Now
consider the number of permutations that are
possible by taking two letters at a time from
four.
In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and
service) will be given to a class of 25 graduate
students in a statistics department. If each student can
receive at most one award, how many possible
selections are there?
A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a
student club consisting of 50 people. How many
different choices of officers are possible if (a) there are
no restrictions; (b) A will serve only if he is president.
The number of permutations of n distinct
objects arranged in a circle is (n – 1)!.
• Example: In how many ways can 6 students be
seated in a round dining table?
The number of distinct permutations of n things of
which n1 is of one kind, n2 is of a second kind,.…, nk is
of a kth kind is n! / n1!n2!...nk!.
Example: In a college football training session, the
defensive coordinator needs to have 10 players
standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are
1 freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors.
How many different ways can they be arranged in a
row if only their class level will be distinguished?
The number of ways of partitioning a set of n
objects into r cells with n1 in the first cell, n2 in
the second cell, and so forth, is n! / n1!
n2!...nr!.
Example: In how many ways can 7 graduate
students be assigned to 1 triple and 2 double
hotel rooms during a conference?
The number of combinations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is n! / r!(n – r)!.
Example: A young boy asks his mother to get 5
Game-Boy cartridges from his collection of 10
arcade and 5 sports games. How many ways
are there that his mother can get 3 arcade and
2 sports games?
Probability of an Event
If an experiment can result in any one of N
different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly
n of these outcomes correspond to event A,
then the probability of event A, is P(A) = n / N.
Example: A coin is tossed twice. What is the
probability that at least 1 head occurs?
A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10
mechanical, 10 electrical, and 8 civil engineering
students. If a person is randomly selected by the
instructor to answer a question, find the probability that
the student chosen is (a) an industrial engineering major
and (b) a civil engineering or an electrical engineering
major.
In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of
holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.
Additive Rule
If A and B are any two events, then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A
∩ B).
Example: John is going to graduate from an industrial
engineering department in a university by the end of the
semester. After being interviewed at two companies he likes,
he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from
company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from
company B is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will
get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is the probability
that he will get at least one offer from these two companies?
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A ∪ B) = P(A)
+ P(B).
What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11
when a pair of fair dice is tossed?
For three events A, B, and C, P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A)
+ P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C) +
P(A ∩ B ∩ C).
Example: Suppose we are playing a board game
that involves rolling two dice. Due to the rules
of the game, we need to get at least one of
the die to be a two, three or four to win. What
is the probability of this?
• If A and A’ are complimentary events, then P(A)
+ P(A’) = 1.
• Example: If the probabilities that an automobile
mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more
cars on any given workday are, respectively,
0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is
the probability that he will service at least 5
cars on his next day at work?
Conditional Probability, Independence, and
the Product Rule
• If in an experiment the events A and B can
both occur, then P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A).
• The conditional probability of B, given A,
denoted by P(B|A), is defined by :
P(B|A) =P(A ∩ B) / P(A), provided P(A) > 0.
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight
departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability
that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time
is P(D ∩A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a
plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on
time,
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on
time.
• Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in
which strips of a particular type of cloth are being
produced. These strips can be defective in two ways,
length and nature of texture. For the case of the latter,
the process of identification is very complicated. It is
known from historical information on the process that
10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test,
and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected
randomly from the process and a quick measurement
identifies it as failing the length test, what is the
probability that it is texture defective?
Two events A and B are independent if and only
if P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B).
Example: Suppose that we have a fuse box containing
20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are
selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the
probability that both fuses are defective?
A small town has one fire engine and one
ambulance available for emergencies. The
probability that the fire engine is available when
needed is 0.98, and the probability that the
ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In
the event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available,
assuming they operate independently.
Example: Three cards are drawn in succession,
without replacement, from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Find the probability that the event
A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that
the first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the
second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event
that the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
Theorem of Total Probability
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3,
make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It
is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the
products made by each machine, respectively, are
effective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective?
Bayes’ Rule
With reference to the previous examples if a
product was chosen randomly and found to be
defective, what is the probability that it was
made by machine B3?
A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for
the design and development of a particular product. For
cost reasons, all three are used at varying times. In fact,
plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the
products, respectively. The defect rate is different for the
three procedures as follows:
P(D|P1) = 0.01, P(D|P2) = 0.03, P(D|P3) = 0.02,
where P(D|Pj) is the probability of a defective product,
given plan j. If a random product was observed and
found to be defective, which plan was most likely used
and thus responsible?
