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Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete, independent events occurring in a fixed interval of time, distance, or other measurement. It applies when the probability of an event is proportional to the interval size and the average number of occurrences is known. Examples include the number of phone calls received in a day or number of defects found in a manufactured item. The distribution has the key properties that the mean and variance are equal and the shape depends on the average number of occurrences, becoming more symmetrical as that number increases.

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Rafi Farhan
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36 views

Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete, independent events occurring in a fixed interval of time, distance, or other measurement. It applies when the probability of an event is proportional to the interval size and the average number of occurrences is known. Examples include the number of phone calls received in a day or number of defects found in a manufactured item. The distribution has the key properties that the mean and variance are equal and the shape depends on the average number of occurrences, becoming more symmetrical as that number increases.

Uploaded by

Rafi Farhan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Poisson Probability Distribution

(Type of Discrete Probability


Distribution)
•  
Definition:
The probability that exactly x events will occur in a given time
is as follows
average rate of occurrence
b(x,n,p)=p(x,λ)=P(x) = , x=0,1,2…

called as probability mass function of Poisson distribution.


where λ is the average number of occurrences per unit of time
λ = np
The Poisson probability distribution is also called the law of
small numbers or the rare events distribution.
Note:
The Poisson distribution is appropriate when the
number of possible occurrences is very large but
the number of actual occurrences is very small
in a fixed period of time.
Note:
Generally, most statisticians use Poisson
approximation when p is .05 or less and n is 20
or more, but in fact the larger n is and smaller p
is the better will be the approximation.
•  
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the
following properties:
1. The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified
as successes or failures.
2. The average number of successes (μ or λ ) that occurs in a
specified region is known.
3. The probability that a success will occur is proportional to
the size of the region.
4. The probability that a success will occur in an extremely
small region is virtually zero. “p” the constant probability
of success in each trial is very small. That is,

5. “n” the number of trials is indefinitely large.


That is,
Example:
A Poisson probability distribution is useful for describing the number of events
that will occur during a specific interval of time or in a specific distance, area, or
volume. Examples of such random variables are:
The number of traffic accidents at a particular intersection
The number of house fire claims per month that are received by an insurance
company
The number of people who are infected with the AIDS virus in a certain
neighborhood
The number of people who walk into a barber shop without an appointment
The number of accidents that occur on a given highway during a 1-week period
 The number of customers entering a grocery store during a 1-hour interval
The number of television sets sold at a department store during a given week
In determining the number of deaths in a district in a given period, by rare
disease.
The number of error per page in typed material.
The number of plants infected with a particular disease in a plot of field.
•  
Properties of Poisson probability distribution:
(i) If the random variable x has a Poisson distribution with
parameter λ, then its mean and variance are given by
, V
We observe that the Poisson distribution has an interesting
property that its mean equals its variance.
(ii) ,
(iii) The shape of the Poisson distribution depends on the value of
its parameters . As the distribution takes on an infinite number of
“x” values, the distribution will be positively skewed. The
distribution tends to be symmetrical as becomes larger and larger.
(iv) Reproductive Property: if two independent random variables X
and Y have Poisson distribution with parameters and then their
sum “X+Y” has also a Poisson distribution with parameter .
p(x+y, λ+ )=P(x) =
The occurrences are always considered with respect to an interval. In the example of the
washing machine, the interval is one month. The interval may be a time interval, a space
interval, or a volume interval. The actual number of occurrences within an interval is random
and independent.

1. Consider the number of telemarketing phone calls received by a household during a given
day. In this example, the receiving of a telemarketing phone call by a household is called an
occurrence, the interval is one day (an interval of time), and the occurrences are random (that
is, there is no specified time for such a phone call to come in) and discrete. The total number of
telemarketing phone calls received by a household during a given day may be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and
so forth. The independence of occurrences in this example means that the telemarketing phone
calls are received individually and none of two (or more) of these phone calls are related.

2. Consider the number of defective items in the next 100 items manufactured on a machine. In
this case, the interval is a volume interval (100 items). The occurrences (number of defective
items) are random and discrete because there may be 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 100 defective items in 100
items. We can assume the occurrence of defective items to be independent of one another.

3. Consider the number of defects in a 5-foot-long iron rod. The interval, in this example, is a
space interval (5 feet). The occurrences (defects) are random because there may be any number
of defects in a 5-foot iron rod. We can assume that these defects are independent of one
another.

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