APPLIED

MATHEMATICS
PRBABILITY THEORY
ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

BY
ASHABA FREDRICK JUNIOR
PROBABILITY THEORY
 
Sample space: this is the set of all the possible


outcomes and each possible outcome is called a

sample point. For example in tossing a a die

In throwing a coin once,

A subset of a sample space is called an event. The
probability of an event is given by
Probability of an event (E)
cont
Probability of an event E is given by
  

Probability of an event ranges between zero

and one.
GENERATION OF SAMPLE SPACE

These include;

 The use of a tree diagram

 The table of outcomes
 Permutations
The use of a tree diagram
Tree diagrams can be used to obtain the possible
outcomes of an experiment carried out a number
of times.
Example: A coin is thrown twice. List down the
possible outcomes and hence find the probability
of obtaining one head and two heads.
 Solution
H

T
H

T H

T
  
One head

Two heads

Example
List down the possible outcomes if the coin is tossed three times.
 H

T
H

H
H T
T

H
T H
T
T
H

 
USING TABLE OF OUTCOMES

Table of outcomes is used to generate sample space where the sample points appear in
pairs for every sample.
Example: Two ordinary dice are thrown. List down the possible outcomes hence find
the probability of obtaining a double.
Solution

  1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,4) (6,5) (6,5) (6,6)
             
  

The number of doubles are 6

Example : Consider the two sets

A number is picked at random from set A and is added to another
numbers in set B. List down the possible outcomes and hence find the
probability of obtaining an even number
 A 2 3 5 7

B
4 5 7 9
2

4 6 7 9 11

6 8 9 11 13

8 10 11 13 15
USING PERMUTATIONS

  

The no of way of re-arranging n-number of letters in a word is given by

=
Where:-
r are the no of times similar letters are repeated

Example:
The letters of the word BALL are arranged to form different words.
What is the probability of choosing at random a word starting with a
letter B
 Starting
   with letter B, means finding B and re-arrange
   Solution ALL
BALL sample =
ALL has 3 letters
= =
But r = 2
=3

Sample space = :- no (words starting with B) = 3

:- prob of words starting with B =

Sample space =
=
= 12
PROBABILITY RULES

  

2.
 Proofs

n 

 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐼  𝐴 ∩ 𝐵  𝐴 𝐼 ∩𝐵
  

= +

n=n+n

= +
   n=n+n

= +

= P(
  
n

A
𝑰
𝑨
 

   nnn
= +
Example: shown that . Shade the area outside
  

Solution the two circles.

On the Venn diagram,

the area is the area
inside the two circles.
For
  

The area having double

  

 Shade the area with

shading is the area .
blue colour.
From the above
 Shade the area with
example, it is seen
red colour. 𝐼 that the area is the
(𝐴𝐴∪𝐵)∩ 𝐵
  𝐼 𝐼
same as the area of
Hence
.
Contingence table
 TYPES OF EVENTS
Mutually
   exclusive events; two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the probability
of both events occurring at the same time is zero i.e

But
Hence

Independent events; events A and B are independent , then the occurance of one does not
affect the other.
Mutually
   exhaustive events: two events A and B are exhaustive if

Example: if A and B are independent events, show that

AI and B are independent
AI and BI are independent
Solution
For AI and B to be independent we need to show that

From
  

For and to be independent we need to show that

From
  
  
EXAMPLE: two events A and B are such that and. find

SOLUTION
     
Question
  
Given that A and B are mutually exclusive events such that Find;

From
  
Also
  

Question
Given that A and B are two events such that and Find i.
SOLUTION
  

 
  
Question


In a race, the probability that Grace wins is 0.4, the probability that Umar wins is
o.2 and the probability that Denis wins is 0.3. find the probability that;
i. Grace or Denis wins
ii. Neither Denis nor Umar wins
Solution
Let x, y and z represent Grace, Umar and Denis respectively

the probability that Grace or Denis wins is

  

From

the probability that neither Umar nor Denis wins is

 
Question: Two dice are thrown, what is the probability of scoring either a double or a sum greater than
eight?
Solution

  1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,4) (6,5) (6,5) (6,6)

             
   1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

 
Let A represent a double and B represent a sum greater than 8
   n
n
n
From

the probability of either scoring a double or a sum greater than eight is

Question
A box contains ten green and six blue marbles. A marble is taken at random from
the box, its colour is noted and is not replaced. This is repeated once more. What is
the probability that the marble chosen at random are 0f the same colour.
Solution

G  9
9G
15
 8 B
6B
G
10G
10
  15
6B
16
B G
10
 
 6 10G
15
16 5B

B
 5
15
The  probability that the marble chosen are of the same colour is

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY


  The probability of an event is only meaningful if we know the sample
space S under consideration.
 The probability that you are the tallest person changes if we are
discussing being the tallest person in your family, or the tallest
person in this class.
 This is clarified using the notation , the conditional probability of event A
relative to the sample space S.
 If A and B are any events in S and P(B) ≠ 0, the conditional probability of A
relative to B (i.e. A often stated ‘of A given B’)
 If two events A and B are such that and , then the probability of A occurring
given that B has already occurred is given by
  

If A and B are independent

Example: The probability that a regular scheduled flight departs is o.83 and the
probability that it arrives on time is 0.92. the probability that it departs on time and
arrives on time is 0.78. find the probability that the plane;
i. Arrives on time given that it departs on time.
ii. Departs on time given that it arrives on time.
  

Solution
  

 
  
Example : The probability that it will be sunny tomorrow is 0.25, the probability
that Mrs brown will go shopping tomorrow is 0.2. the probability that both of these
events will occur of 0.15.
i. Find the probability that neither of the events will occurs.
ii. Mrs brown goes shopping given that it is sunny.
iii. It is sunny given that Mrs brown goes shopping.
Solution
Let A represent a sunny tomorrow and B represent Mrs brown going for shopping

Probability that neither of the events occurs

  

the probability that neither of the events occurs of 0.7

  

 
Try out
1. Two events A and B are such that A and B are mutually exclusive events. Find;
2. Two
   events are such that , . Calculate;

3. A and B are two independent events such that

Given that find

4. A and B are two independent events with A as twice as likely to occur as B. if , find
 5. A and B are intersecting circles as shown in the Venn diagram.
 
A B

x y z

 
Given that . Find
i. The values of x, y and z
6. A bag contains 4 red balls and 3 yellow balls. Another bag
contains 3 and yellow balls. A ball is taken at random from the
first bag and placed in the second bag. A second bag is shaken
and the ball is taken from it to the first bag. If the ball is
now taken from the first bag, what is the probability that it
is red?
The “and” situation
  arises when we are interested in the joint occurrence of events. “And” means
This


both (intersection).
Example : In a certain school, students take either Maths or Economics or none of
the two. 200 students of whom 40 take Maths and 140 take Economics while 60
take neither of the subjects. A student is selected at random from the school, what is
the probability that the student takes both Maths and Economics?
solution
  
From
The “or” situation
This
   arises when the occurance of either one or two or both of the
events.
Or means union
Example : A fair die is rolled, what is the probability of obtaining either
a 3 or a 4 appearing on top?
Solution
Sample space
  
THE AT LEAST SITUATION
10% of a large consignment of apples are known to be bad. If three are
chosen at random. What is the probability that ;
i. All will be bad
ii. None will be bad
iii. At least one will be bad
 
 B
 1
10
G
B  1
 1 10
10 B
G  1
B  1 B 10
10  1
 1
10
10

G B
B  1
 1 10
10  1 G
10  1
G
10
 1
10 B
 1
10
G
 1
10
  
  
  
The “one and only” one situation
  is the situation in which one of the series of the events happens while
This


others fail.
Example
The probability that three soldiers A, B , C hit the target when each of them
fires one at the target are respectively. Three soldiers together hit at a
monkey each realizing a bullet. Determine the probability that the monkey
is hit by;
i. One and only one bullet
ii. Exactly two bullet
iii. By three bullets.
   Solution
One and only one hit the target
  
  

Alternatively

The probability that the monkey is hit

  
 THE LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY AND
BAYE’S THEOREM.
  
Suppose and are mutually exclusive and mutually exhaustive events and
that B is any event.
 𝐵

  𝐴1

  𝐴2
  

Since are mutually exclusive

This is the law of total probability.

   From

Generally
  
Example : The probability that it will be sunny tomorrow is . if it is sunny, the
probability that John goes to the farm is 4/5. If it is not sunny, the probability that
he goes to the firm is 2/5. Find the probability that John goes to the farm tomorrow.
Solution
  
A good footballer striker is nursing his injury in his leg. The probability that his team
will win the next when he plays is 4/5, otherwise it is 2/3. The probability that he will
have recovered by the time of the match is ¼. Find the probability that his team will win
the match.
Solution
A box contains 3 types of balls red balls and black balls. When the ball is picked at
random from the box, the probability that it is red is 7/12. Two balls are picked at
random from the box with replacement. Find the probability that ;
i. the second ball is black
ii. the first ball is red given that the second one is black.
Solution

R  7
11
R B
 5
 7
12 11
R
B  7
 5 11
12 R
 4
11
 Cont….
     
   candidates have been nominated for the post of welfare for a certain school.
Three


The probability that candidate A will be elected is 0.1, that of B is 0.2 while that of
C is 0.3. it is expected that the entertainment fee will be increased if any of those is
elected as a prefect. The probability of an increase in the fee when A is elected is
0.5, the corresponding probabilities for candidates B and C are 0.6 and 0.4
respectively.
i. Determine the probability that there was no increase in the entertainment fee.
ii. Given that there was an increase in the fee, calculate the probability that
candidate A was elected.
 Solution
  
  

Try out
Three boxes contain coloured balls. contains 5 black balls and four white balls. contains 7 black and
5 white balls while contains 3 black and 5 white balls. If three balls are withdrawn from box with
replacement, find the probability that the third ball drawn is the second white ball.
If one of the boxes is selected at random and a ball withdrawn from it, find the probability that
i. Box z was chosen and the ball was black.
ii. A white ball was chosen.
iii. The ball was selected from box z given that it was black.
 
  
In a survey 70% of men and 55% of women said that they smoked. The proportion of
men to women is and the person from the survey was chosen at random and found to
be a smoker, what is the probability that this person is a woman?

The proportion of female students at Kalinabiri Secondary School is 55%. If 30% of the
male students study chemistry and 5% of female students study chemistry. What is the
probability that a chemistry student chosen at random is a girl?

The probability a fisherman catches a fish is 7/10 on a cloudy and 1/5 on a clear day. If
the probability of a cloudy day is 3/5, find the probability that the day is cloudy given
that he did not catch the fish.
Thank you