Finding probabilities of events

Finding probabilities of events

• Complement of an event
• Intersection of events
• Union of events
• Mutually exclusive events
• Conditional event
• Dependent and independent events

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 Probability of Combinations of Events

If A and B are two events, then

Probability of an event:
• P(A) = P(A occur) The probability that outcome A will occur

Complement of an event
• c
P(A ) = P(A does not occur) The probability that outcome will not occur

Intersection of events
• P(A  B) = P(A and B both occur)

Union of events
• P(A  B) = P(A occur or B occur or both)

Conditional event
• P(A|B) = P(A occurs given that B has occurred)
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 Example:
The number of spots turning up
when a 6-sided die is tossed is A Venn diagram

observed. The list of possible 2

3
outcome or the sample space is 1
given below 6
4
5

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 1 2
3
Define two events E 6
4
E = the number observed is even = {2,4, 6}
5

3
1 F 2

F = the number observed is at most 2 = {1,2}

4 6
5
4
Our interest:
Given
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
E= {2,4, 6} and F = {1,2}

Find
P(E) = P(E occur)

P(Ec) = P(E does not occur) The complement event of E

P(E  F) = P(E and F both occur) The intersection of E and F

P(E  F) = P(E occur or F occur or both)

The union of E and F

P(F|E) = P(F occurs given that E has occurred)

The conditional probability of F given E

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 Finding the probability of E: P(E)=?

2 3
AS E = {2, 4, 6} 1

E
4 6

A Venn diagram

P(E) = the probability that the outcome will be an even number

 
P(Event)

 
P(E)
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 The complement of an Event
c
Find P(E ). i.e. Find the complement of E = { 2, 4, 6}

 The complement of event E is defined to be

C
E
2 3
the event consisting of all sample points that 1

E
are ‘not in E’.
4 6

c 5
Complement of E is denoted by or CE
The complement of event E is E = {1,3,5} A Venn diagram

 
P()

Alternatively Rule of Probability

 
=  1- P()
P() = 1
= 1- = 7
 The intersection of events
E F
Find P(E  F)= P(E and F both occur).

ANSWER 3
1 F

E = {2, 4, 6}, F = {1, 2},

2 E
Outcomes that belong to both E and F
6

E  F = {2} 4
5

 
P()

IMPORTANT:
• This is referred to as the joint probability of E and F
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Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive when both cannot occur simultaneously?

Or when Joint probability =0

Example
2
FF 3
F = {1,2}, G = {4} 1

P(F G)=0 4 5

Event G

There is no overlap between the two regions.

F and G are mutually exclusive events

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 The Union of events

Find P(E  F) = P(E occur or F occur or both) EF

ANSWER 1 A 3

E = {2, 4, 6} F = {1, 2}, 2 B

6
4
E  F = {1, 2, 4, 6} 5

 
P(E F)

Alternatively: Rule of Probability

  F)
P(E

=
10
 Conditional Probability
E F
Find P(F|E)=P(F occurs given that E has occurred)

.
1 F 3

Solution E
2

E = {2, 4, 6}, F = {1, 2} 6

E  F=  2
4
5

n(E  F) 1
P( F E )  
n F  3
Alternatively

P(E  F) 1
6 1 n(E  F)
Rule of Probability
P( F E )    
P E 3
6 3 n S 
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