Components of Population

Growth
Components of population growth

• Population growth has three

components: birth, deaths
and migration.
• Population growth is
determined by four factors,
births(B), deaths(D),
immigrants(I), and emigrants(E)
Annual population growth rate
(APGR) of Nepal
Census Year APGR
1911 -0.13
1920 -0.70
1930 1.16
1941 1.16
1952 2.30
1961 1.65
1971 2.07
1981 2.66
1991 2.08
2001 2.24
2011 1.35
 Relation between Growth Rate &
Population
Rating Annual Rate of Pop doubling Time
Growth %
Stationary No growth -
population
Slow growth <0.5 >139 yrs
Moderate growth 0.5 – 1.0 139 – 70 yrs
Rapid growth 1.0 – 1.5 70- 47 yrs
Very rapid growth 1.5 – 2.0 47 – 35 yrs
Explosive growth 2.0 – 2.5 35 – 28 yrs
Explosive growth 2.5 – 3.0 28 – 23 yrs
Explosive growth 3.0 – 3.5 23 – 20 yrs
Explosive growth 3.5 – 4.0 20 – 18 yrs
 Fertility
• it is defined as child bearing
performance of a couple measured
in terms of the actual number of
children alive.
• Fertility is one of the main factors
in determining the age structure of
a population.
• The study of fertility is complex
because it is affected by factors
including biological as well as
behavioural
 Factors affecting Fertility
• Age at marriage
• Duration of married life
• Nutrition
• Importance of children as a part of the labor force.
• Rising level of urbanisation.
• Improved Educational and employment
opportunities for women.
• Availability of legal abortions.
• The cost of raising and educating children.
• Increasing development & well being.
• Falling infant mortality rates.
• Improved education about birth control.
• Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms.
 Measures of Fertility
Some of the Fertility measurements are:

1. CRUDE BIRTH RATE (C.B.R.)

2. GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (G.F.R.)

3. AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (A.S.F.R.)

4. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (T.F.R)

 Crude Birth Rate (C.B.R.)
• The Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate are both measured by
the rate of births or deaths respectively among a population of 1000.
• For example, if a country has a population of one million and 15,000
babies were born last year in that country, we divide both the 15,000
and 1,000,000 by 1000 to obtain the rate per 1000. Thus the Crude
Birth Rate is 15 per 1000.
• The Crude Birth Rate is called "crude" because it does not take into
account age or sex differences among the population.

CRUDE BIRTH RATE =

Number of live births which occurred in a
year in a specified geographical area
______________________________________ X 1000
Mid year population of the area in the
same year of the same area
 TREND of CBR for NEPAL
Year CBR
1961 44.6
1971 42.8
1981 44.0
1991 41.6
2001 32.6 **
NDHS 2006 28.4*
2008 27.7***
NDHS 2011 24.3

**Source: CBS, Population Monograph of Nepal, Vol I ,2003; *MoHP [Nepal],New

ERA ,and Micro International Inc. 2007 and *** Nepal in Figures 2008
 General Fertility Rate (G.F.R.)
• The General Fertility Rate is the birth rate of
women of child bearing age (age 15-49).
• The general fertility rate is calculated by
dividing the total number of births in a given
year by the number of women aged 15
through 49 and multiplying by 1,000.

General Fertility Rate =

Number of live births in a year given by women aged 15-49 years
___________________________________________________________ x 1000
Number of women in fertile age group 15-49 Years
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)…
• For example, in 2010, there were a total of
34,744 live births to the residents of Bhaktapur. It
is estimated that there were 516,570 women
aged 15 through 49 in the district. Therefore, the
General Fertility Rate = (34,744 / 516,570) X
1,000 = 67.3 births per 1,000 women 15-49).
• The general fertility rate is the best overall
indicator of reproductive behavior and success.
• General fertility varies a great deal by race, place
of residence, ecological zone etc.
 Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
• Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), also Known As Age-Period Fertility Rate
in the three years that precede the date of the survey, presented as an
annual rate.
• The Age Specific Fertility Rate is the number of births during a year to
women in a particular age group, usually per 1,000 women in a five (5)-
year age group at midyear.
• low ASFR is crucial for a safe delivery for both mother and child and
contributes to the likelihood of a more stable environment for child
rearing.
• Having children too early in life will also reduce the educational
opportunities for some mothers and put some children at a socio-
economic disadvantage.
Age Specific Fertility Rate =
Number of live births given by women in a particular age group
from 15-49 years for a given year
____________________________________________________ x 1000
Number of women in that particular Group for a given year
 Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), Nepal
Age 1971 1976 1981 1984-86* 1989-91* 1994-96* 1998-2000* 2003-
group 2005

15-19 0.074 0.145 0.066 0.099 0.101 0.127 0.110 0.098

20-24 0.267 0.290 0.230 0.261 0.263 0.266 0.248 0.234

25-29 0.310 0.295 0.266 0.230 0.230 0.229 0.205 0.144

30-34 0.261 0.269 0.245 0.200 0.169 0.160 0.136 0.084

35-39 0.196 0.169 0.206 0.114 0.117 0.094 0.081 0.048

40-44 0.109 0.075 0.142 0.068 0.055 0.037 0.034 0.016

0.043 0.023 0.099 0.049 0.026 0.015 0.007 0.002

45-49

Source :MoH,2008:22.
 Figure 2.1
Age Specific Fertility Rates
Nepal, 1998-2000 and 2003-2005

0.3
0.25
ASF R

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Age

2003-2005 1998-2000

Source :MoH,2008:22.
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Total fertility rate (TFR, sometimes also called
the fertility rate, or total period fertility rate
(TPFR) of a population is the average number of
children that would be born to a woman over her
lifetime if she were to experience the exact
current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through
her lifetime, and she were to survive from birth
through the end of her reproductive life.
7
5�ASFR I
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE [ TFR ] = i=1
1000
 TREND OF TFR for NEPAL
during Different Census and Sample Survey
Census Years TFR Sample Survey Year TFR

1971 6.3 NFS 1976, MoH 1975-1976 6.3

1981 6.3 NCPS 1981, MoH 1980-1981 6.3
1991 5.1 NF & FPS 1986, MoH 1984-1986 5.1*
2001 3.8 NFFP & HS 1991, MoH 1989-1991 4.8*

NFHS 1996, MoH 1993-1995 4.6*

NDHS 2001, MoH 1998-2000 4.1*

2003-2006 3.1*
NDHS 2006,MoH

2.6
NDHS 2011

Source: CBS,2003:43 and NDHS,2006, 2011

 TFR trend for some Countries
COUNTRY 2000-2005* 2005-2010*
BHUTAN 2.9 2.7
BANGLADESH 3.2 2.4
INDIA 3.1 2.8
PAKISTAN 4.0 4.0
MALDIVES 2.6 2.1
NEPAL 3.7 2.9
SRI LANKA 2.0 2.3
CANADA 1.5 1.6
USA 2.0 2.1
UK 1.7 1.8
Iceland (1) 2.0
Norway (1) 1.9
CHINA, HONGKONG 0.9 (LOWEST) -
Republic of Korea and Bosnia 1.2 (LOWEST)
NIGER 7.4 (HIGHEST)
Afghanistan 6.6 (HIGHEST)
Source :* Human Development Report 2005-2010,UNDP)
Thank You