Specialty Packaging Corporation,
Part A
Ali – Azhar – Dame - Ira
About Polystyrene
Polystyrene (PS) is a synthetic aromatic polymer made from the monomer styrene, a liquid
petrochemical. Polystyrene can be rigid or foamed. General purpose polystyrene is clear, hard
and brittle. It is a very inexpensive resin per unit weight. It is a rather poor barrier to oxygen
and water vapor and has a relatively low melting point. Polystyrene is one of the most widely
used plastics, the scale of its production being several billion kilograms per year. Polystyrene
can be naturally transparent, but can be colored with colorants. Uses include protective
packaging (such as packing peanuts and C D and DVD cases), containers (such as "clamshells"),
lids, bottles, trays, tumblers, and disposable cutlery.
As a thermoplastic polymer, polystyrene is in a solid (glassy) state at room temperature but
flows if heated above about 100 °C, its glass transition temperature. It becomes rigid again
when cooled. This temperature behavior is exploited for extrusion, and also
for molding and vacuum forming, since it can be cast into molds with fine detail.
Problem Identification
Julie Williams wants to :
Select the appropriate forecasting method and estimate
the likely forecast error. Which should she choose?
Forecast quarterly demand for each of the two types of
containers for the years 2007 to 2009.
Improve supply chain performance, as SPC had been
unable to meet demand effective over the previous
several years.
Supporting Theory
Forecasting Classifield
Q ualitatif
Primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.
C ausal
The demand forecast is highly corelated with certain factors
in the environment
Simulations
Imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to
arrive at a forecast
Forecast Method Applicability
Time Series Moving average No trendor
seasonality
Use historical demand to make a forecast
Simple exponential No trendor
Multiplicate :level x trend x seasonal factors smoothing seasonality
Holt’s model Trend but no
Additive :level + trend + seasonal factors seasonality
Mixed :(level trend) x seasonalfactors Winter ‘s model Trend and
seasonali
ty
Supporting Theory
Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting
Understand the objective
of forecasting
Integrate demand
planning and forecasting
Understand and identify
customer segment
Identify the major factors
that influence the
demand forecast
Determine the
appropriate forecasting
technique
Establish performance
and error measure for the
forecast
Supporting Theory
Bullwhip Effect
Analysis 1
Understand the objective
of forecasting
Over the several years, they had
been unable to meet demand
Integrate demand
planning and forecasting
Establish a collaborative forecast using
data from the SPC and Customer
Have two produts, black and clear plastic
Have quarterly historical demand plastic
container
Analysis 1
U nderstand
and identify
customer
segment
Identify the
major
factors that
influence
the demand
Summ er Fall forecast
Analysis 1
Determine the
appropriate forecasting
technique
Increasing volume (‘000 lb) in
every quarter each years.
Historical demand of plastic
containers influence by seasonal
demand
Establish performance
and error measure for the
forecast
MSA (Mean Square Error)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
Analysis 2
CMA TRENDAFTER
ADJUSTMENT
DESEASONALI
BYTHE
ZED SALES = TREND(Y=
Black plastic SEASON SEASON
Year Quarter SumbuX INDEX Sales/Season 8,886.63+
demand AL AL INDEX
WEIGHT al Index
RATIO =
853.79x
) (Sumbu Y) Trend x
Season
al
2002 I 1 2,250 0.5 0.25 8,926.81 9,740.42 2,455
Index
II 2 1,737 1 0.19 9,325.34 10,594.21 1,973
III 3 2,412 1 12,982.25 0.19 0.19 12,821.17 11,448.00 2,154
IV 4 7,269 1 14,331.38 0.51 0.47 15,402.99 12,301.79 5,805
REGRESI LINIER Year Quarter
Black Plastic Clear Plastic
Demand Demand
Black Y = 8,886.63 + 853.79x I 6,759 5,929
Clear Y = 15,001.69 + 700.61x 2007
II 5,154 15,158
III 5,366 8,149
IV 13,864 4,190
Forecasting method I
II
7,620
5,790
6,488
16,555
2008
Time series III 6,009 8,883
CMA IV 15,476 4,559
Seasonal and trend I 8,481 7,048
2009 II
Ekstrapolasi regresi linier 6,426 17,951
III 6,651 9,617
IV 17,087 4,928
Analysis 3
Manufacturer’s Wholesaler’s
Store’s orders Sales from
orders to its orders to
to wholesaler store
suppliers manufacturer
Orders
Orders
Orders
Orders
0 0 0 0
Time Time Time Time
Manuf- Whole Retail
Supplier
acturer -saler Store
Julie Williams used optimum forecast to meet
unpredictable demand influence by seasonal demand
(response supply chain objective)
Analysis 3
Coordination
mechanism for reducing
supply chain dynamic
instability by using
information sharing,
channel alingment and
operational efficiency
Recomendation
Lesson learned
Company should understand the role of forecasting for
both an enterprice and a supply chain.
Manage unpredictable demand with coordination
mechanism by using information sharing, channel
alingment and operational efficiency.
Terima Kasih
