EViews Training

Basic Estimation: Time Series Models

Note: Data and workfiles for this tutorial are provided in:
 Data: Data.xls
 Results: Results.wf1
 Practice Workfile: Data.wf1
 Data and Workfile Documentation
• Data.wf1 and Data.xls have monthly data from January 1960-December 2011.

 M1 – money supply, billions of USD (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
 IP –industrial production, index levels (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
 Tbill – 3-month US Treasury rate (source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
 CPI – Consumer Price Index, level (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

2
Time Series Estimation
• EViews has a built-in powerful toolkit that allows you to estimate time series
models ranging from the simplest to the most complex types.
• This tutorial demonstrates how to perform basic single equation time series
regression techniques using EViews.
• The main topics include:
 Specifying and Estimating Time Series Regressions
 Static and dynamic models
 Date functions
 Trends and seasonality
 Serial Correlation
 Testing for Serial Correlation
 Correcting for Serial Correlation: ARMA models
 Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation
 Testing for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH terms
 HAC Standard Errors
 Weighted Least Squares

3
Simple Time Series Regressions
• Suppose you wish to estimate a model that captures movements in M1
(money supply) based on other variables: IP (industrial production) CPI,
and Tbill rate.
• As a first step, it may help to open
these variables as a group, and
plot the series in order to observe
trends in the data.
• M1 seems to grow over time, so
adding a time trend may improve
the fit of the model.
• CPI and IP seem to move together
with M1 and also grow over time.
• Tbill appears to have a different
pattern from M1 (and other series).

4
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 1
• Specifying a time series equation in EViews is very easy and follows the same
basic steps we introduced in the Basic Estimation tutorial.

Estimation: Example 1
1. Open Data.wf1 workfile.
2. In the main menu, select Object →
New Object → Equation and click OK.
3. The Equation Estimation box opens
up. Specify here your variables:
 log(m1) – dependent variable
 c – constant
 log(ip) – 1st independent variable
 log(cpi) – 2nd independent variable
 Tbill – 3rd independent variable
4. Click OK.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq01 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

5
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 1 (cont’d)
• The estimation Output is shown here.
A number of things stand out:
 All variables appear to be highly
statistically significant (based on p-
values/t-stats).
 The R-squared value is very high: results
imply that around 99.25% of the variation
in log(m1) can be explained by the other
variables in the model. Normally this
would imply a very good fit for the model.
 We caution against these results: high R-
squared does not necessarily imply that
the model is a good or useful one.

6
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 1 (cont’d)
• Let’s take a look at the behavior of residuals in the Equation View.

Examining Residuals:
1. Open eq01 in Results.wf1 workfile.
2. Click View on the Equation Object
menu bar.
3. Select Actual, Fitted, Residual →
Actual, Fitted, Residual Graph.

• The residuals of this regression

appear to have long periods of
positive values followed by long
periods of negative values,
providing strong visual evidence of
serial correlation.

7
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 2
• Distributed lag models are easy to specify in EViews.
• In these models, one or more variables affects the dependent variable with a lag.
• Lags of dependent or independent variables can be specified directly in the
equation box in EViews (see Data Function tutorial for more details).
Estimation: Example 2
1. Suppose you want to examine how M1 is affected by CPI and its first two lags in
log form. Type in the command window:

ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(cpi(­1)) log(cpi(­2))

2. Press Enter.

Note that command ls, denotes that the method of estimation is least squares.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq02 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

8
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 2 (cont’d)
• The estimation Output is shown here.
A few quick notes:
 Notice that we now have 622 instead of
624 observations because we are using
two lags of CPI.
 R-squared and F-statistic values are high,
which is surprising especially since some
coefficients do not appear to be very
significant. For example, current CPI is
statistically significant only at the 10%
level, while the first lag of CPI is not
significant.
 What causes these results? It turns out,
there is substantial correlation between
CPI, CPI(-1) and CPI(-2) .

9
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 2 (cont’d)
 You can look at the correlation matrix of
CPI and its first two lags. To create the
correlation matrix, follow these steps:
1. Type in the command window:
    show cpi cpi(­1) cpi(­2) 
to open these series as a group.
2. On the top menu of the group,
click on View → Covariance
Analysis.
3. The Covariance Analysis box
opens up. Click the Correlation
box under Statistics.
4. Click OK.

As you can see from the correlation matrix, the

series are highly correlated (multicollinearity).
This multicollinearity makes it difficult to estimate
the effect at each lag.
.
10
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 2 (cont’d)
• A more formal way to investigate collinearity among regressors is the
Coefficient Variance Decomposition from the View menu of the Equation box.
• This test is particularly useful if there is a linear relationship between regressors
(i.e., X1=X2+3X3 ) which the simple correlation matrix may fail to detect.
Coefficient Variance Decomposition:
1. Click on eq02 to open it. 
2. On the top menu of the equation
box, click on View →
Coefficient Diagnostics →
Coefficient Variance
Decomposition.
• Note that decomposition calculations
follow Besley, Kuh and Welsch (2004).
In general, there is a high degree of
collinearity if:
 A condition number is smaller than
1/900 (0.001)
 There are two or more variables
with higher covariance
decomposition proportion than 0.5
(associated with a small condition
number). 11
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 2 (cont’d)
• The Equation View changes and
displays a table showing Eigenvalues,
Condition Numbers, Variance
Decomposition Proportions and
Eigenvectors, as shown here.
 The top portion shows the
Eigenvalues sorted from the smallest
to the largest.
 In our case, the condition numbers
are much smaller than 1/900=0.001,
which indicates the presence of
collinearity. (Note that the last
condition number is always equal to
1).
 The middle panel displays the
variance decomposition proportions.
The proportions associated with the
smallest condition number. As you can
see, 3 of the values are above 0.5,
indicating that there is a high degree
of collinearity between CPI, CPI(-1)
and CPI(-2).
12
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 3
• You can just as easily specify a model containing a large number of lags
without having to explicitly type out all the lags.
Estimation: Example 3
1. Suppose you would like to examine how
M1 is affected by current CPI values and
its 12 lags. On the main menu, select
Object → New Object → Equation and
click OK.
2. The Equation Estimation box opens.
3. Specify here your variables:
 m1 – dependent variable
 c – constant
 CPI(0 to -12) – current and lagged
values of CPI.
4. Click OK.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq02a in

Result.wf1 workfile.

13
Simple Time Series Regressions:
Example 3 (cont’d)
• The estimation output is shown here.
A few quick notes:
 Again, taken individually, none of the
coefficients (except lag 12) is statistically
significant.
 However, the R-squared value and the F-
statistic are very high.
 Similar to the previous example, the issue
here is that there is a high degree of
collinearity among all regressors (since
these are lags of the same variable).
 A way to deal with high collinearity is to fit a
polynomial distributed lag model (not
discussed in this tutorial).

14
Simple Time Series Regressions
Example 4
• You can just as easily specify a dynamic model containing lags of
dependent and independent variables.
Estimation: Example 4
1. On the main menu, select Object →
New Object → Equation and click OK.
2. The Equation Estimation box opens.
Specify here your variables:
 log(m1) – dependent variable
 c – constant
 log(m1(-1))
 log(cpi)
 log(cpi(-1))
 log(cpi(-2))
3. Click OK.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq03 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

15
Simple Time Series Regressions
Example 4 (cont’d)
• The estimation output is shown here.
A few quick notes:
 Notice that the lagged dependent
variable (log(m1(-1)) is close to unity
and is highly significant.
 If errors are serially correlated, OLS
estimates are biased and inconsistent
in the presence of lagged dependent
(see Appendix to Basic Time Series
Estimation for details).

16
Time Series Models and
Date Functions
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies
• EViews allows you to estimate regression models using dummy variables
directly in the estimation window without first having to create the
dummies.
• For example, judging by the
behavior of M1 in the graph shown
here, it appears that the series
grew at a much more rapid pace
since 2008, thanks to the many
rounds of quantitative easing (QE)
carried out by the Federal Reserve.

18
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 1
• Let’s check whether the period since 2008 has indeed had an outsized
impact in the growth of M1.
Date Dummies: Example 1
1. Specify the equation by typing in the command window:
ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) @year>2008

Note that command @year>2008 creates a dummy variable, equal to 1 for the period
after 2008 and 0 otherwise.

2. Press Enter.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq04 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

19
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 1 (cont’d)
• The estimation output is shown
here.
• Notice that the impact of the
dummy variable on M1 is large
and significant.
• This means that post-2008, there
is a sizable and significant
increase in M1.

20
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 2
• You can also create a dummy for each year post-2008, to determine their
individual impact in the growth of M1.
Date Dummies: Example 2
1. Enter in the command window:

ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) 
tbill @year=2008 @year=2009 
@year=2010 @year=2011

2. Press Enter (please type the

command in one line).

• Note that command @year=2008 creates a

dummy variable equal to 1 for all months in
2008 and 0 otherwise, and so on.
.
*Note: This equation is saved as eq05 in
Result.wf1 workfile.

21
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 3
• We can examine the direct impact of QE on M1, by specifying the year and
the quarter (or month) when it was announced.
• QE 1 largely took place in the first quarter of 2009, whereas QE 2 was
announced in the third quarter of 2010.

Date Dummies: Example 3

1. Type in the command window:
ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) (@year=2009 and @quarter=1) 
(@year=2010 and @quarter=3)

2. Press Enter (please type the command in one line).

• Note that command @year=2009 and @quarter=1 creates a dummy variable, equal to 1
for all months in the first quarter of 2009, and 0 otherwise.

22
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 3 (cont’d)
• Estimation output is shown
here.
• Notice that while the
announcement of QE1 is
not statistically significant,
QE2 is.

*Note: This equation is saved as

eq06 in Result.wf1 workfile.

23
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies (cont’d)
• You can also create a dummy
variable by specifying a date
value using the @during
function.
• For example, based on the graph
shown here, it also seems that
the growth of M1 was unusually
high in the period between 1988
and 1993.
• Let’s create a dummy variable for
this period and examine its
impact on the growth of M1.

24
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 4
Date Dummies: Example 4
1. Specify the equation by typing in the command window:

ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) @during("1988m01 1993m12") 

2. Press Enter.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq07

in Result.wf1 workfile.

Alternatively, you can also type in the command line:

ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) (@date>=@dateval("1988m01") and 
@date<=@dateval("1993m12"))

25
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 4 (cont’d)
• Estimation output is shown here.
• Note that command: @during("1988m01 1993m12") creates a dummy variable
equal to 1 from January 1980 until December 1993, and 0 otherwise.

26
Time Series Regressions and
Date Dummies: Example 5
• You can also use @expand function to create a set of dummy variables.

Date Dummies: Example 5

1. Suppose you want to check the effect of each quarter of the year in the growth of M1.
Type in the command window:
  ls log(m1) c log(cpi) log(ip) @expand(@quarter, @dropfirst) 

2. Press Enter.

• Note that command @expand(@quarter) creates a set of dummy variables: @quarter=1 is a

dummy variable equal to 1 for the first three months of each year and 0 otherwise; @quarter=2
equals 1 for months in the second quarter, etc.
• Note also that since here we have included a constant, we need to drop one of the dummy
variables in order not fall in the dummy variable trap. This can be accomplished by using
@dropfirst command.

27
Trends and Seasonality
Time Trends
• Many economic time series have a • For example, judging from their graphs
tendency to grow over time. (shown below), M1 and IP appear to grow
• Ignoring the fact that two series contain together over time.
a time trend (are trending together) can
lead us to falsely conclude that changes
in one variable actually cause changes
in the other variable.
• Finding a relationship between two or
more trending variables simply because
they are growing over time is an
example of a spurious regression
problem.
• The good news is that adding a time-
trend to the regression eliminates this
problem.

29
Time Trends (cont’d)
• Time trends can be accommodated easily in EViews using function @trend.
• Let’s illustrate the impact of time trend in the simple regression of IP on M1.

Estimation with no Time Trends:

1. First, let’s specify a simple
regression without time trends.
Type in the command window:
   ls log(m1) c log(ip) 

2. Press Enter.

• As seen, log(ip) has a highly

statistically significant coefficient.
The R-squared is also very high,
indicating -- at first look --a very
good fit for the model.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq09

in Result.wf1 workfile.

30
Time Trends: Example 1
• Let’s include a time trend and see if anything changes.
Time Trends: Example 1
1. Type in the command window:
     ls log(m1) c log(ip) @trend
2. Press Enter.

Results are very different now:

 First, the coefficient of log(ip) is now
negative and not significant.
 In addition, the coefficient of the time
trend is positive and statistically
significant.
 The R-squared is very high even
though the coefficient of log(ip) is not
significant. Movements in log(m1) are
explained by the time trend.
 This means that omitting @trend can
result in a spurious regression yielding
*Note: This equation is saved as eq10 in
biased estimators of the impact of
Result.wf1 workfile.
log(ip) on log(m1).

31
Time Trends: Example 2
• Quadratic time trend are also very easy to specify in EViews.
Time Trends: Example 2
1. Type in the command window:
  ls log(m1) c @trend @trend^2
2. Press Enter.

• For a more detailed

discussion on time trends,
interpretation, and de-
trending, see the companion
to this tutorial: Appendix:
Time Series Models.

*Note: This equation is saved as

eq11 in Result.wf1
workfile.

32
Seasonality
• Sometimes time series exhibit seasonal patterns. For example, retails sales
tend to be higher in the last quarter of the year because of the Holiday
Shopping season.
• Most macroeconomic series are already seasonally adjusted beforehand so
there is no need to worry about seasonal issues.
• If you suspect a series displays seasonal patterns, you can include a set of
dummy variables to account for the seasonality in the dependent variable.
• EViews has a built-in function that creates dummy variables corresponding
to each month (or quarter, if the data is quarterly).

33
Seasonality (cont’d)
Regression with seasonal factors:

1. Type in the command window:

  ls log(m1) c log(ip) log(cpi) @trend @seas(2) @seas(3) @seas(4) @seas(5) 
  
  @seas(6) @seas(7) @ seas(8) @seas(9) @seas(10) @seas(11) @seas(12) 

2. Press Enter (please type the command in one line).

*Note: This equation is saved as eq12 in
Result.wf1 workfile.

34
Seasonality (cont’d)
• The seasonal dummies are not
individually statistically significant
(you can also carry out a Wald test
for joint significance and conclude
the same).
• This means that the M1 series does
not display seasonal patterns (this
is because the series is already
adjusted for season patterns).

35
Testing for Serial Correlation
Serial Correlation
• As we have seen in the previous examples, residuals from our time series
regressions appear to be correlated with their own lagged values (they
display serial correlation).
• Serial correlation is a common occurrence in time series data because the
data is ordered (over time); it is therefore not surprising that neighboring
error terms turn out to be correlated.
• Serial correlation violates the standard assumption of regression theory that
error terms are uncorrelated.

37
Serial Correlation (cont’d)
• If untreated, serial correlation leads to a number of issues:
 Reported standard errors and t-statistics are invalid (even asymptotically).
 Coefficients may be biased, though not necessarily inconsistent (if data is weakly

dependent).
 In the presence of lagged dependent variables, OLS estimates are biased and
inconsistent.

• Fortunately, EViews provides tools for detecting serial correlation and correcting
regressions to account for its presence.

Note: in the following examples we will treat serial correlation as a statistical issue. However,
serial correlation is sometimes a hint of model misspecification. Though we don’t investigate
this here, misspecification is likely an issue in the following examples.

38
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspection: Example 1
• You can visually inspect your residuals to see if serial correlation is present.
1. Open eq01 in the Results.wf1 workfile.
2. Click View on the Equation box menu bar.
3. Select Actual, Fitted, Residual → Actual, Fitted, Residual Graph.
• From the graph shown here, residuals seem to display runs of positive and
negative values, providing strong visual evidence of serial correlation.

39
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspection: Example 2
• Another way to visually inspect the residuals
is to obtain a scatter plot of residuals against
their lagged values.
Scatterplot of residuals against lagged values:
1. Click on eq01 to open it. Click the
button on the top menu of the Equation
box, and select Make Residual Series.
2. Name the residuals resid_eq1
3. Create a group consisting of residuals and
their lagged values by typing in the
command window (and pressing Enter after
typing):
show resid_eq1 resid_eq1(­1)
4. The Group Spreadsheet opens up. On the
top menu of the Group Spreadsheet, select
View → Graph

40
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspection: Example 2 (cont’d)
5. The Graph Options dialog box opens up. Select Scatter under Graph type →
Specific.
6. Click OK.

41
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspections: Example 2 (cont’d)
• There is strong evidence that residuals
and their lagged values are positively
correlated.

42
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspection: Example 3
• Another visual approach is to look at the Correlogram which shows the
empirical pattern of correlation between residuals and their own past values.
Correlogram of residuals:
1. Click on eq01 to open it. On the
Equation box, click View →
Residual Diagnostics →
Correlogram-Q-Statistic.
2. The Lag Specification box opens
up. Select the number of lags (the
default, 36, is fine).
3. Click OK.

43
Detecting Serial Correlation
Visual Inspection: Example 3
• The Correlogram is shown here.
• If there is no serial correlation
the AC and PAC at all lags
should be near zero and all Q-
statistics should be insignificant.
• Clearly, this is not the case here:
the correlogram shows
substantial and persistent
autocorrelation in residuals.

*Note: This output is saved as

table01 in Result.wf1
workfile.

44
Testing for Serial Correlation in EViews
• Visual checks provide important information, but we may want to carry out
formal tests for serial correlation.
• EViews provides three test statistics:
1. Durbin-Watson
2. Breusch-Godfrey
3. Ljung-Box Q-Statistic (or the correlogram; explained above).

45
Testing for Serial Correlation:
Durbin-Watson Statistic
• EViews automatically computes the
DW statistic and includes it in every
equation object.
 To test the hypothesis of no serial
correlation, compare the reported DW
statistic to a table of critical values.
Notice that EViews does not compute
p-values for the DW statistic.
 In our case, the DW=0.02768, which
means we soundly reject the null of no
serial correlation.

46
Testing for Serial Correlation
Breusch-Godfrey Test: Example 1
• A more general test for serial
correlation is the Breusch-Godfrey test.
Breusch- Godfrey Test: Example 1
1. Click on eq01 to open it. On the Equation
box menu, click View→Residual
Diagnostics→ Serial Correlation LM
test.
2. The Lag Specification box opens up.
Here you need to specify the highest order
of serial correlation you would like to test. If
testing for first order serial correlation,
specify lags=1.
3. Click OK.

• The null hypothesis is that there is no serial

correlation in the residuals up to the
specified order.

47
Testing for Serial Correlation
Breusch-Godfrey Test: Example 1 (cont’d)
• Results are shown here.
 The top panel reports the test statistics in
two versions: the F-statistic and the Chi-
squared statistics (either one is fine). The
associated p-values are also shown next
to each statistic.
 The bottom panel provides additional
information of the auxiliary regression that
is carried out to create the test statistic.
 Since we are testing for first order serial
correlation, there is only one residual lag
in the auxiliary regression.
 The null hypothesis of no serial correlation
is easily rejected, corroborating our
previous findings.

*Note: This output is saved as table02 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

48
Correcting for Serial Correlation:
ARMA Models
Correcting for Serial Correlation
• If you detect serial correlation, something needs to be done.
• Serial correlation in the error term may be evidence of a serious problem
of model misspecification.
• If your goal is to estimate a model with complete dynamics, you need to re-
specify the model.
• If you do not wish to estimate a fully dynamic model, but would like to carry
out statistical inference, then you need to account for serial correlation so
that test statistics are valid.
• EViews has built-in features to correct for either autoregressive (AR(p)) or
moving average (MA(q)) errors, or both.

50
Correcting for Serial Correlation (cont’d)
• Let’s illustrate with a new model how to:
 Check for serial correlation.
 Correct for serial correlation.

Estimate the model:

1. Enter in the command window:

ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend

2. Click OK (please type the command

in one line).
• There is plenty of evidence that errors
are serially correlated based on:
 DW-statistic (which is very small)
 Residual plot (next slide)
 Breusch-Godfrey test (next slide).

*Note: This equation is saved as eq13 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

51
Correcting for Serial Correlation (cont’d)
• Residual Plot • Breusch-Godfrey Test
1. Click View on Equation box. 1. Click View on Equation box.
2. Select Actual, Fitted, Residual→ 2. Select Residual Diagnostic→Serial
Actual, Fitted Residual Graph. Correlation LM Test (select 2 lags).

*Note: This output is saved as table04 in

Result.wf1 workfile.
52
Correcting for Serial Correlation:
AR(p) models: Example 1
• Now let’s correct for serial correlation in this model. Suppose you suspect the
error term in the previous model follow an AR(1) process.
• You can specify an AR(1) model in EViews very easily.

Example 1: AR(1) Model:

1. Type in the command window the same equation as before, adding the term AR(1) as
if it were another variable.

   ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) log(ip) @trend ar(1)

2. Press Enter.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq14 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

53
Correcting for Serial Correlation
AR(p) models: Example 1 (cont’d)
• Results are shown here.
A few notes:
 The coefficient estimate for AR(1) is
shown in the middle panel. This is the
serial correlation coefficient and in our
case it is large and statistically significant.
 “Inverted AR roots” are shown at the
bottom of the equation box. Stationarity
requires that inverted roots lie inside the
unit circle. There is no particular issue if
roots are imaginary, but EViews issues a
warning if the process is non-stationary.
 Notice that the number of observations has
declined by 1; EViews adjusts the sample
to free up the pre-sample observation
needed for estimation of an AR model.
 The summary statistics at the bottom of
the table are now based on the one-
period-ahead forecast errors (which
includes the information from lagged
residuals) and not on the unconditional
residuals.
54
Correcting for Serial Correlation
AR(p) models: Example 1 (cont’d)
A few notes (cont'd):
 Versions of EViews prior to EViews 9 used constrained least squares as an estimation
method for ARMA models. EViews 9 introduced Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Generalised
Least Squares (GLS) estimation of ARMA models. The results above are for the default ML
method.
 You can change the ARMA estimation method using the Options tab of the estimation dialog.
 The results of the same estimation in versions prior to EViews 9 are shown below:

55
Correcting for Serial Correlation
AR(p) models: Example 1 (cont’d)
• You can also check for serial correlation now by inspecting residuals and
carrying out the Breusch-Godfrey Test.
Residual Plot:
1. Click on eq14 to open it. On
the Equation box menu, click
on View.
2. Select Actual, Fitted,
Residual → Residual
Graph.
• As you can see, residuals
behave better now
compared to the original
model, though there are still
some concerns regarding
serial correlation.

56
Correcting for Serial Correlation
AR(p) models: Example 1 (cont’d)
• Breusch-Godfrey Test:
1. Re-estimate eq14 using CLS ARMA
estimation method. (Options tab)
2. On the equation toolbar, click
View→Residual Diagnostics→
Serial Correlation LM test.
3. The Lag Specification box opens
up. Specify lags=2.
4. Click OK.
 As you can see from the test
results, we fail to reject the
presence of serial correlation after
including an AR(1) term.
 This means the AR(1) model is not
a good specification (it does not
fully address serial correlation).
*Note: This output is saved as table05 in
Result.wf1 workfile.

57
 Correcting for Serial Correlation
AR(p) models: Example 2
• EViews allows you to estimate higher order (AR(p)) models just as easily.
• This should help you address issues of higher-order serial correlation.
Example 2: AR(p) Model
1. If you suspect that the error term
follows an AR(2) process, then add
terms AR(1) and AR(2) to your
regression command:

ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend  ar(1) ar(2)

2. Press Enter (please type the command

in one line).

• Notice that now both AR(1) and AR(2)

terms are estimated. They are both
statistically significant.
*Note: This equation is saved as eq15 in
Result.wf1 workfile.

58
 Correcting for Serial Correlation:
AR(p) models: Example 3
• You can just as easily specify non-contiguous AR(p) terms (i.e., ar(1), ar(4), etc.)

Example 3: AR(p) Model

1. You can add non-contiguous AR terms by
typing them directly in the command
window (or equation box):

ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi)    
        log(ip) @trend ar(1) ar(3) 
ar(5)

2. Press Enter (please type the command in

one line).

• Notice that all AR terms are estimated.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq16 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

59
Correcting for Serial Correlation:
AR(p) models (cont’d)
A couple of additional notes:
 As shown above, EViews allows you to include non-contiguous AR terms (ar(2)
ar(4), etc.)
 The downside to this is that if you are estimating a higher-order AR process,
EViews requires you to include all lower-order terms. For example, to estimate an
AR(3) model, you need to include: ar(1) ar(2) a(3) (or, in EViews 8, ar(1 to 3)).
 If you simply type ar(3) and omit other terms, this forces the estimate of ar(1) and
ar(2) to zero. You may want this on rare occasions (for example, when dealing
with seasonal components), but not on a routine basis.

60
Correcting for Serial Correlation
MA(q) models: Example 1
• You can easily correct for serial correlation, when errors follow an MA process.
Example 1: MA(1) Model
1. If you suspect your errors follow an
MA(1) process, then add term
MA(1) in your regression command:

  ls tbill c log(m1)log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend ma(1)

2. Press Enter (please type the

command in one line).

*Note: This equation is saved as eq18

in Result.wf1 workfile.

61
Correcting for Serial Correlation
MA(q) models: Example 2
• You can just as easily specify higher order or non-contiguous MA terms.

Example 2: MA(q) Model

1. If you want to specify an MA(3)
process, type in the command window
(note: this is a feature of EViews 8):

  ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend ma(1 to 3)

2. Press Enter (please type the

command in one line).

• Note: For non-contiguous MA terms

specify all MA terms in your equation.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq19

in Result.wf1 workfile.

62
Correcting for Serial Correlation:
MA(q) models (cont’d)
Some additional notes:
 As it must be obvious by now, if your errors follow an MA(2) process, you need to
include both ma(1) and ma(2) terms in the regression.
 Unlike nearly all other EViews estimation procedures, MA models require a
continuous sample. If your sample includes a break or has missing data (NA
values), EViews will give an error message.
 Notice that in general, MA models are notoriously difficult to estimate. In particular,
higher order MA terms should be avoided unless absolutely required for your
model.

63
Correcting for Serial Correlation
ARMA(p,q) Models: Example 1
• ARMA models (autoregressive and moving average errors) are also estimated
very easily in EViews.
Example 1: ARMA(1,1) Model
1. Suppose you suspect your errors follow
an ARMA(1,1) process. To specify this,
add AR and MA terms in your
regression command:
ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend ar(1) ma(1)

2. Press Enter (please type the command

in one line).

• Results show both AR and MA terms.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq20

in Result.wf1 workfile.

64
Correcting for Serial Correlation
ARMA(p,q) Models: Example 2
• You can just as easily specify higher order ARMA(p,q) models.
Example 2: ARMA(p,q) Model
1. Suppose you suspect your errors follow an
ARMA(2,1) process. To specify this, type in
the command window:
ls tbill c log(m1) log(cpi) 
log(ip) @trend ar(1 to 2) ma(1)

2. Press Enter (please type the command in

one line).

*Note: This equation is saved as eq21

in Result.wf1 workfile.

65
ARMA Equation Diagnostics:
Correlogram
• EViews provides access to several diagnostic views to help you assess the
ARMA terms.
• One of the most useful diagnostic tools is the ARMA Correlogram.

ARMA Correlogram:
1. Click on eq21 to open it. On the top menu of
the Equation box, click View → ARMA
Structure.
2. The ARMA Diagnostic Views dialog box
opens up. Select Correlogram, the number of
lags (24 here) and click Graph (if you want to
see a graph).

66
ARMA Equation Diagnostics:
Correlogram (cont’d)
• The graph shows autocorrelations
and partial correlations for:
 Theoretical correlogram (red line) – this
corresponds to ARMA terms.
 Empirical correlogram of residuals
(blue spikes) -- this corresponds to
original residuals with no ARMA terms).
• If the model is properly specified, the
blue spikes and red line should be
“close”.
• Note that if the ARMA model is non-
stationary, EViews shows only the
sample structural residual
autocorrelation patterns.

67
Differencing and Serial Correlation
• An alternative way to deal with serial correlation is to difference the data.
• In fact, differencing the data (e.g., taking first-order differences) addresses a
number of issues that arise in time series data:
 It eliminates most (perhaps not all) serial correlation
 It de-trends the data
 It transforms an I(1) process to an I(0).

68
Differencing and Serial Correlation (cont’d)

• Let’s first estimate the

following model in levels.
Estimating in levels:
1. Type in the command window
ls tbill c log(ip) 
tbill(­1) @trend            
2. Click OK.

• There is evidence that serial

correlation is present in this
model. DW-statistic is low, and
the Breusch-Godfrey test (not
shown here) detects the
presence of serial correlation.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq22

in Result.wf1 workfile.

69
Differencing and Serial Correlation (cont’d)

• Now let’s estimate the same model in first differences.

• Remember that EViews allows you to difference the data very easily
by typing d() before the name of the variable or dlog (if you want to
take log differences).

Estimating the model in first-differences:

1. Type in the command window:

ls d(tbill) c dlog(ip) d(tbill(­1))@trend            

2. Press Enter.

*Note: This equation is saved as eq23

in Result.wf1 workfile.

70
Differencing and Serial Correlation (cont’d)
• Results are shown here.
A few things:
 The DW-statistic is now a lot closer
to 2, suggesting that we have
eliminated some of the serial
correlation in the error term (not all
disappears; BG test shows errors
are serially correlated, but the
problem is less severe now).
 The time trend is now not
significant: taking first-differences
has de-trended the data.
 The R-squared value is much lower
now reflecting the fact that it is
harder to fit differenced data
(compared to levels).

71
Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation
In Time Series
Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation
in Time Series
• Nothing rules out the possibility that both heteroskedasticity and serial
correlation are present in a regression model.
 Serial correlation has a larger impact on standard errors and efficiency of
estimators than heteroskedasticity
 However, heteroskedasticity may be of concern especially in small samples.
• In addition, in many financial time series, the conditional variance of the error
term depends on past values of the error term. This is also known as
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH).
• In this section, we demonstrate the following:
 Testing for heteroskedasticity in time series models
 Testing for ARCH terms
 HAC standard errors

73
Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation
in Time Series (cont’d)
• Testing for Heteroskedasticity in time series data is very similar to cross
section data*
 The one caveat is that, when testing for heteroskedasticity, residuals should not
be serially correlated.
 Any serial correlation will generally invalidate tests for heteroskedasticity.
 It thus makes sense to test for serial correlation first, correct for serial correlation,
and then test for heteroskedasticity.
 Most commonly, you can correct for both heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
of unknown form using the HAC Consistent Covariance (Newey-West).

*Note: For heteroskedasticity test on cross-section data see tutorial on Basic Estimation.
74
Testing for Heteroskedasticity
in Time Series Models
• Suppose you want to see whether
the regression shown here suffers
from heteroskedasticity.

• Let’s perform the White test.

 Recall, the White test is a test of the null
hypothesis of no heteroskedasticity,
against heteroskedasticity of unknown,
general form.

*Note: The Appendix to this tutorial shows

that this regression does not suffer
from serial correlation.
*Note: This equation is saved as eq24
in Result.wf1 workfile.

75
Testing for Heteroskedasticity
in Time Series Models (cont’d)
White Test:
1. Open eq24 in Results.wf1 file. On the
top menu of the Equation box, select
View → Residual Diagnostics →
Heteroskedasticity Tests.
2. The Heteroskedasticity Tests window
opens up. Select White under the drop-
down menu.
3. You may chose to include or exclude the
cross terms. If you do not wish to include
the cross term, uncheck the box “Include
White cross terms” (as we do here). The
test will simply be carried out with only
the squared terms.
4. Click OK.

• Test Results (top panel) are shown here.

• Based on the test statistics, we reject the
null of homoskedascity, which means that
the error term is heteroskedastic and
standard errors should be adjusted.

76
Testing for ARCH Terms
• It is also possible that the previous
regression has ARCH terms.
• To test for this, let’s perform an ARCH LM test.
 The null hypothesis is that there is no ARCH up
to order q in the residuals.

ARCH LM Test:
1. Click on eq24 to open it. On the equation box,
select View → Residual Diagnostics →
Heteroskedasticity Tests.
2. The Heteroskedasticity Tests window opens
up. Select ARCH under the drop-down menu.
3. Select the number of lags (4 in this case).
4. Click OK.

77
Testing for ARCH Terms (cont’d)
• Test Results are shown here.
 The top panel shows the results of the
ARCH LM test, while the bottom panel
shows the auxiliary regression used to
compute the test statistics.
 We reject the null of no ARCH, which
means that residuals suffer from this
specific form of heteroskedasticity.

*Note: This output is saved as table08 in

Result.wf1 workfile.

78
Addressing Heteroskedasticity and
Autocorrelation: Robust Standard Errors
• EViews provides built-in tools that allow you to adjust standard errors for the
presence of both heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown
form (HAC –Newey-West).

HAC (Newey-West) standard errors:

1. Click eq24 to open it. Click on the
equation box.
2. The Equation Estimation box opens up.
Click Options.
3. Under the Coefficient Covariance matrix
drop-down menu, choose HAC (Newey-
West).
4. Click OK.

79
Addressing Heteroskedasticity and
Autocorrelation: Robust Standard Errors (cont’d)
• EViews re-estimates the equation, this time adjusting the standard errors for
heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown form.
• For purpose of comparisons, we also show results with unadjusted standard errors.
• As expected, the estimated coefficient values do not change. But, the adjusted
standard errors (and associated t-statistics) are different from the original regression.

80