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Stella Maris Polytechnic MATH404: Lecture No. 1 Statistics and Probability by Mr. Moses S.E. Hinneh, JR

This document provides an overview of topics related to discrete probability distributions that will be covered in a statistics and probability lecture. It begins with an introduction to discrete random variables and examples involving coin tosses and flower petals. It then discusses discrete probability distributions in more detail, including how to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. The document also explains how to represent a discrete probability distribution graphically and defines the distribution function. Finally, it provides an example of finding the probability distribution of the sum of dice rolls and calculating probabilities based on that distribution.

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Joshua Danquah
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
103 views

Stella Maris Polytechnic MATH404: Lecture No. 1 Statistics and Probability by Mr. Moses S.E. Hinneh, JR

This document provides an overview of topics related to discrete probability distributions that will be covered in a statistics and probability lecture. It begins with an introduction to discrete random variables and examples involving coin tosses and flower petals. It then discusses discrete probability distributions in more detail, including how to calculate the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. The document also explains how to represent a discrete probability distribution graphically and defines the distribution function. Finally, it provides an example of finding the probability distribution of the sum of dice rolls and calculating probabilities based on that distribution.

Uploaded by

Joshua Danquah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 53

STELLA MARIS

POLYTECHNIC
MATH404
Lecture No. 1
Statistics and Probability
by
MR. MOSES S.E. HINNEH, JR.

TOPICS FOR TODAY


Discrete Random Variable
Discrete Probability Distribution
Graphical Representation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution
Mean, Standard Deviation and
Coefficient of Variation of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
Distribution Function of a Discrete
Random Variable.

RANDOM VARIABLE
Such a numerical quantity
whose value is determined by
the outcome of a random
experiment is called a random
variable.

For example, if we toss three


COIN together, and let X
denote the number of heads,
then the random variable X
consists of the values 0, 1, 2,
and 3.
Obviously, in this example, X
is a discrete random variable.

Let us now discuss the concept of discrete probability


distribution in detail with the help of the following
example:

EXAMPLE:
If a biologist is interested in the number of petals on a
particular flower, this number may take the values 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and each one of these numbers will
have its own probability.

Suppose that upon observing a


large no. of flowers, say 1000
flowers, of that particular species,
the following results are obtained:

No. of Petals
X
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

f
50
100
200
300
250
75
25
1000

Since 1000 is quite a


large number, hence the
proportions f/f can be
regarded as probabilities
and hence we can write

No. of Petals
X
x1 = 3
x2 = 4
x3= 5
x4 = 6
x5 = 7
x6 = 8
x7 = 9

P(x)
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.075
0.025
1

Properties of a Discrete
Probability Distribution:
(1) 0 P X i 1
for each Xi (i = 1, 2, 7)
and (2)

p X i 1

And, since the number of petals on a leaf can only be a


whole number, hence the variable X is known as a discrete
random variable, and the probability distribution of this
variable is known as a DISCRETE probability
distribution.
In other words:
Any discrete variable that is associated with a
random experiment, and attached to whose various
values are various probabilities

(such that
P Xi 1)
i 1

is known as a Discrete Random Variable, and its


probability distribution is known as a Discrete
Probability Distribution.

Just as we can depict a frequency distribution


graphically, we can draw the GRAPH of a probability
distribution.

EXAMPLE
Going back to the probability distribution
of the number of petals on the flowers of a
particulars species, i.e.: No. of Petals
X
x1 = 3
x2 = 4
x3= 5
x4 = 6
x5 = 7
x6 = 8
x7 = 9

P(x)

0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.075
0.025
1

This distribution can be represented in


the form of a line chart.

Line Chart Representation


of the
Discrete Probability Distribution

.30
Probability
P(x)

.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0

7
8
9
No. of Petals (x)

Evidently, this particular


probability distribution is
approximately symmetric.

In addition, this graph clearly


shows that, just as in the case of a
frequency
distribution,
every
discrete probability distribution has
a CENTRAL point and a
SPREAD.
Hence, similar to a frequency
distribution,
the
discrete
probability distribution has a
MEAN
and
a
STANDARD
DEVIATION.

Mean and Standard deviation


of a probability distribution

Let us first consider the computation of the


MEAN:

We know that in the case of a


frequency distribution such as
X
1
2
3
4
5

f
1
2
4
2
1

the mean is given by

fX

Xf
f

In case of a discrete probability


distribution, such as the one that we have
No. of Petals
been considering i.e.
P(x)
X
x1 = 3
x2 = 4
x3= 5
x4 = 6
x5 = 7
x6 = 8
x7 = 9

the mean is given by:

0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.075
0.025
1

XP X XP X

E X

XP X
1
p X

Hence we construct the column of


XP(X), as shown below:
No. of Petals
x
x1 = 3
x2 = 4
x3 = 5
x4 = 6
x5 = 7
x6 = 8
x7 = 9
Total

P(x)

xP(x)

0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.075
0.025
1

0.15
0.40
1.00
1.80
1.75
0.60
0.225
5.925

Hence = E(X) = XP(X) = 5.925


i.e. the mean of the given probability
distribution is 5.925.

In other words, considering a very large


number of flowers of that particular species, we
would expect that, on the average, a flower contains
5.925 petals --- or, rounding this number, 6 petals.

Next, let us consider the computation of the


STANDARD DEVIATION:

COMPUTATION OF THE
STANDARD DEVIATION:
Just as in case of a frequency
distribution, we have
2
f X X

S
f
2

fX fX

f
f

X f Xf

f
f

Similarly, in case of a probability


distribution, we have

= S.D.(X)

X P(X) XP X

P X
P X
2

X P X XP X
2

P X 1

In the above example


No. of Petals
x
x1 = 3
x2 = 4
x3 = 5
x4 = 6
x5 = 7
x6 = 8
x7 = 9
Total

P(x)

xP(x)

x P(x)

0.05
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.075
0.025
1

0.15
0.40
1.00
1.80
1.75
0.60
0.225
5.925

0.45
1.60
5.00
10.80
12.25
4.80
2.025
36.925

Hence:
= S.D. X 36.925 5.925

36.925 35.106
1.819 1.3

Graphical Representation:
.30

Probability
P(x)

.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0

= 5.925

= 1.3

9
No. of Petals (x)

Now that we have both the mean and the


standard deviation, we are in a position to compute
the coefficient of variation of this distribution:

Coefficient of Variation

C.V.

100

1.3

100
5.925
21.9 %

Let us consider another example to


understand the concept of discrete probability
distribution:

EXAMPLE
a)
Find the probability distribution of the sum of the
dots when two fair dice are thrown.
b)
Use the probability distribution to find the
probabilities of obtaining (i) a sum that is greater than 8, and
(ii) a sum that is greater than 5 but less than or equal to 10.

SOLUTION
a)The sample space S is represented by
b) the following 36 outcomes:
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6);
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6);
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6);
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6);
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6);
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }

Since each of the 36 outcomes


is equally likely to occur,
therefore each outcome has
probability 1/36.

Let X be the random


variable representing the sum of
dots which appear on the dice.
Then the values of the r.v.
are 2, 3, 4, , 12.

The probabilities of these


values are computed as below:
1
f(2) P X 2 P1, 1 ,
36

as there is only one outcome


resulting in a sum of 2,
2
f(3) P X 3 P 1, 2 , 2,1 ,
36
3
f(4) P X 4 P 1, 3 , 2, 2 , 3,1 ,
36

Similarly

4
5
6
5
4
f(5) , f 6 , f 7 , f 8 , f 9 ,
36
36
36
36
36
3
2
1
f 10 , f 11
and f 12 .
36
36
36

Therefore
the
desired
distribution of the r.v. X is

probability

xi

10

11

12

f(xi)

1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

The probabilities in the above table clearly


indicate that if we draw the line chart of this
distribution, we will obtain a triangular-shaped graph.
The students are encouraged to draw the graph
of this probability distribution, in order to be able to
develop a visual picture in their minds.

b) Using the probability distribution, we get


the required probabilities as follows:

i) P(a sum that is greater than 8)


= P(X > 8)
= P(X=9) + P(X=10) + P(X=11) + P(X=12)
= f(9) + f(10) + f(11) + f(12)

4
3
2
1 10

=
36 36 36 36 36

ii)

P(a sum that is greater than 5


but less than or equal to 10)
= P(5 < X < 10)
= P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8)
+ P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)
= f(6) + f(7) + f(8) + f(9) + f(10)

5
6
5
4
3 23

.
=
36 36 36 36 36 36

Next,
we
consider
the
concept
of
the
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
of a discrete random
variable:

DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
The distribution function of a
random variable X, denoted by F(x),
is defined by F(x) = P(X < x).
The function F(x) gives the
probability of the event that X takes
a value LESS THAN OR EQUAL
TO a specified value x.

The distribution function is


abbreviated to d.f. and is also
called
the
cumulative

distribution function (cdf)

as it is the cumulative
probability function of the
random variable X from the
smallest value upto a specific
value x.

Let us illustrate this concept


with the help of the same
example that we have been
considering --- that of the
probability distribution of the
sum of the dots when two fair
dice are thrown.
As explained earlier, the
probability distribution of this
example is:

xi

f(xi)

1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

F(x) = P(X < x)


= p(X = 2) + p(X = 3) + p(X = 4) + p(x = 5)
= 1/36 + 2/36 + 3/36 + 4/36
= 10/36

10

11

12

The
term
distribution
function
implies
the
cumulation of the probabilities
similar to the cumulation of
frequencies in the case of the
frequency distribution of a
discrete variable.

xi

10

11

12

f(xi)

1
36

2
36

3
36

4
36

5
36

6
36

5
36

4
36

3
36

2
36

1
36

F(xi)

1
36

3
36

6
36

10
36

15
36

21
36

26
36

30
36

33
36

35
36

36
36

If we are interested in finding


the probability that we obtain a
sum of five or less, the column of
cumulative
probabilities
immediately indicates that this
10
probability is .
36

In the next lecture, we will


discuss
the
concept
of
distribution function in further
detail, after which we will
begin in a formal manner the
concept of MATHEMATICAL
EXPECTATION.

IN TODAYS LECTURE, YOU LEARNT

Discrete Random Variable


Discrete Probability Distribution
Graphical Representation of a
Discrete Probability Distribution
Mean, Standard Deviation and
Coefficient of Variation of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
Distribution Function of a Discrete
Random Variable

IN THE NEXT LECTURE,


YOU WILL LEARN

Graphical Representation of the


Distribution Function of a Discrete
Random Variable

Mathematical Expectation

Mean, Variance and Moments of a


Discrete Probability Distribution

Chebychevs Inequality

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