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Probability and Statistics For Wind Power: 20 September 2016

The document discusses probability and statistics concepts for wind power, including how to calculate average wind power and speed using different probability density functions like Weibull and Rayleigh. It provides examples of calculating average wind speed and power given hourly wind speed data and probability distributions of wind speeds. The document also outlines standard wind power classifications based on average wind speeds.

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37 views

Probability and Statistics For Wind Power: 20 September 2016

The document discusses probability and statistics concepts for wind power, including how to calculate average wind power and speed using different probability density functions like Weibull and Rayleigh. It provides examples of calculating average wind speed and power given hourly wind speed data and probability distributions of wind speeds. The document also outlines standard wind power classifications based on average wind speeds.

Uploaded by

jameelahmad
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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20 September 2016

Probability and Statistics for Wind Power


Dr. Irfan Ullah
Assistant Professor
Electrical Engineering Department
University of Management and technology

Renewable Electrical Energy Resources EE407

Contents
1. Average power in the wind
2. Wind Power Probability Density Functions
3. Weibull and Rayleigh Statistics

Average power in the wind


Kinetic energy is given by

Power through area A

Mass flow rate ()

Power in the wind (watts)

Average power

Average wind speed


During a 10-h period, there were 3 h of no wind, 3 h at 5 mph, and 4
h at 10 mph
Average windspeed

probability that there is no


wind is 0.3, the probability
that it is blowing 5 mph is 0.3,
and the probability that it is
10 mph is 0.4

Average wind speed contd


The average value of v3

Example 6.9
Find the average windspeed and the average power in the wind
(W/m2). Assume the standard air density of 1.225 kg/m3. Compare
the result with that which would be obtained if the average power
were miscalculated using just the average windspeed.
Solution:
For 805 h/yr at 8 m/s

Example 6.9 contd


Average windspeed

Average value of v3

Average power in the wind

Wind power probability density functions


Area under the curve

Windspeed probability density function (p.d

Weibull and Rayleigh Statistics


Weibull probability density function

k is called the shape parameter


c is called the scale parameter

Weibull probability density function with


shape parameter k = 1, 2, and 3 (with
scale parameter c = 8).

Weibull and Rayleigh Statistics


Rayleigh probability density function

Rayleigh probability density function

Average Power with Rayleigh Statistics


Average wind speed

Fundamental relationship for


average power

Example 6.10
Estimate the average power in the wind at a height of 50 m when
the windspeed at 10 m averages 6 m/s. Assume Rayleigh
statistics, a standard friction coefficient = 1/7, and standard air
density = 1.225 kg/m3.
Solution

Rayleigh p.d.f

Probability density functions for winds at


Altamont Pass, CA., and a Rayleigh p.d.f. with
the same average wind speed of 6.4 m/s (14.3

Wind Power Classifications


Standard Wind Power Classificationsa

Discussion

Thanks
?

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