Valuing a company relative to another
company
The DCF (WACC, FTE, APV) model of
valuation is a fundamental method.
Value of firm (equity) is the PV of future
cash flows.
Ignores the current level of the stock
market (industry).
Appropriate for comparing investments
across different asset classes (stocks vs.
bond vs. real estate, etc).
In the long run, fundamental is the correct
way of value any asset.
Relative valuation is based on P/E ratios and a host
of other multiples.
Extremely popular with the press, CNBS, Stock
brokers
Used to value one stock against another.
Can not compare value across different asset
classes (stocks vs. bond vs. real estate, etc).
Can not answer the question is the stock market
over valued?
Can answer the question, I want to buy a tech
stock, which one should I buy?
Can answer the question, Which one of these
overpriced IPOs is the best buy?
You are investing for your retirement. You are
planning to take a buy and hold strategy
which involves picking some fairly priced
stocks and holding them for several years.
Which valuation approach should you use?
Relative or fundamental?
You are a short term investor. You trade
several times a week on your E-trade
account, and rarely hold a stock for more
than a month. Which valuation technique
should you use?
Relative or fundamental?
Prices can be standardized using a common variable such as
earnings, cashflows, book value, or revenues.
Earnings Multiples
Price/Earning ratio (PE) and variants
Value/EBIT
Value/EBDITA
Value/Cashflow
Enterprise value/EBDITA
Book Multiples
Price/Book Value (of equity) PBV
Revenues
Price/Sales per Share (PS)
Enterprise Value/Sales per Share (EVS)
Industry Specific Variables (Price/kwh, Price per ton of steel,
Price per click, Price per labor hour)
Relative valuation relies on the use of multiples and a
little algebra.
For example: house prices.
House
Price
Sq ft
Price per sq ft
Rs. 110,000
1,700
Rs. 64.71
Rs. 120,000
1,725
Rs. 69.57
Rs. 96,000
1,500
Rs. 64.00
Rs. 99,000
1,550
Rs. 63.87
Rs. 105,000
1,605
Rs. 65.42
Average
Rs.65.51
What is the price of a 1,650 sq ft house?
Answer: 1650 65.51 = Rs.108,092
To use a multiple inelegantly you must:
Know what are the fundamentals that determine
the multiple.
Know how changes in these fundamentals
change the multiple.
Know what the distribution of the multiple looks
like.
Ensure that both the denominator and
numerator represent claims to the same group
- OK: P/E Price equityholders, EPS
equityholders
- Not OK: P/EBIT Price equityholders, EBIT All
claimants
Ensure that firms are comparable.
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PE Market price per share / Earnings per share
There are a number of variants of the basic PE ratio
in use. They are based on how the price and
earnings are defined.
Price
- current price
- or average price for the year
Earnings
- most recent financial year
- trailing 12 months (Trailing PE)
- forecasted eps (Forward PE)
To understand the fundamental start
with the basic equity discounted
cash flow model.
With the dividend discounted model
Dividing both sides by EPS
Div1
P0
re g
P0
Payout ratio (1 g )
EPS 0
re g
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Holding all else equal
higher growth firms will have a higher
PE ratio than lower growth firms.
higher risk firms will have a lower PE
ratio than low risk firms.
Firms with lower reinvestment needs
will have a higher PE ratio than firms
with higher reinvestment needs.
Of course, other things are difficult to hold
equal since high growth firms, tend to
have high risk and high reinvestment
rates.
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1 00
0
50
V W _P E
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A market strategist argues that stocks are
over priced because the PE ratio today is
too high relative to the average PE ratio
across time. Do you agree?
Yes
No
If you do not agree, what factor might
explain the high PE ratio today?
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You are reading an equity research report
on Informix, and the analyst claims that
the stock is undervalued because its PE
ratio is 9.71 while the average of the
sector PE ratio is 35.51. Would you agree?
Yes
No
Why or why not?
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In an industry we identify 4 stocks which are
similar to the stock we want to evaluate.
Stock A
PE=14
Stock B
PE=18
Stock C
PE=24
Stock D
PE=21
The average PE = (14+18+24+21)/4=19.25
Our firm has EPS of Rs.2.10
P/2.25=19.25 P=19.25*2.25=Rs.40.425
Note do not include the stock to be valued
in the average
Also do not include firm with negative P/E
ratios
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PE ratios are for equityholders, while cash
flow measures are the whole firm.
Cash flow is from continuing operations
before capital expenditure.
FCF is uncommitted freely available cash
flow after capital expenditure to maintain
operations at the same economic level.
FCFF (cash flow from assets) is free cash
flow to total firm
Value
MV equity MVdebt
FCFF
FCFF
In the US in 1999, the mean value was 24.
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For a firm with a constant growth rate
FCFF0 (1 g )
V0
wacc g
V0
(1 g )
FCFF0 wacc g
Therefore, the value/FCFF is a function of the
The cost of capital
The expected growth rate
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Industry average is 20
Firm has FCFF of Rs.2,500
Shares outstanding of 450
MV of debt = Rs.30,000
Using Value/FCFF=20
value = FCFF*20
MV equity + MV debt = FCFF*20
MV equity = FCFF*20 MV debt
Price = (FCFF*20-MV debt)/Shares
Price = (Rs.2,500*20-Rs.30,000)/450 =
44.44
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Most analysts find FCFF to complex or
messy to use in multiples. They use
modified versions.
After tax operating income: EBIT (1-t)
Pre tax operating income or EBIT
EBDITA, which is earnings before interest,
tax, depreciation and amortization.
Value
MV equity MVdebt
EBDITA
EBDITA
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The no-cash version
Value
MV equity MVdebt cash
EBDITA
EBDITA
When cash and marketable securities are
netted out of the value, none of the income
from the cash or securities should be
reflected in the denominator.
The no-cash version is often called
Enterprise Value.
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EV = market value of equity + market value of debt
cash and marketable securities
Many companies who have just conducted an IPOs have
huge amount of cash a war chest
EV excludes this cash from value of the firm
Cash +MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity
MV of non-cash assets = MV debt + MV equity - Cash
For example: Nasdaq AWRE (did IPO in 1996)
Its 1996 cash was Rs.31.1 million, Total assets = Rs.40.1
million, Debt=0 EV=Rs.9 million.
For young firms it is common to use EV instead of Value.
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1.
2.
3.
The multiple can be computed even for
firms that are reporting net losses, since
EBDITA are usually positive.
More appropriate than the PE ratio for
high growth firms.
Allows for comparison across firms with
different financial leverage.
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The measure of market value of equity to book
value of equity.
P MV equity
B BVequity
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Div1
P0
re g
Going back to dividend discount model,
Defining the return on equity (ROE)=EPS0/BV0 and
realizing that div1=EPS0*payout ratio, the value of equity
can be written as
BV0 ROE payout ratio (1 g )
P0
re g
P0
ROE payout ratio (1 g )
PVB
BV0
re g
If the return is based on expected earnings (next period)
P0
ROE payout ratio
PVB
BV0
re g
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The ratio of market value of equity to the sales
P
MV equity
S Total Revenue
Though the third most popular ration it has a
fundamental problem.
- the ratio is internally inconsistent.
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Using the dividend discount model, we have
Div1
P0
re g
Dividing both sides by sales per share and
remembering that
Profit margin
Earnings per share
Sales per share
We get
P0
Profit margin payout ratio (1 g )
PS
sales0
re g
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The key determinant of price-sales ratio is profit margin.
A decline in profit margin has a twofold effect
First, the reduction in profit margin reduces the price-sales
ratio directly
Second, the lower profit margin can lead to lower growth
and indirectly reduce price-sales ratio.
Expected growth rate = retention rate * ROE
retention ratio *(Net profit/sales)*( sales/book value of equity)
retention ratio * (profit margin) * (sales/ BV of equity)
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Price is the value of equity
While sales accrue to the entire firm.
Enterprise to sales, however, is consistent.
EV0
MV equity MV debt - Cash
sales0
re g
To value a firm using EV/S
Compute the average EV/S for comparable firms
EV of subject firm = average EV/S time subjects firm
projected sales
Market value = EV market debt value + cash
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There are dozen of multiples
There are three choices
Use a simple average of the valuations
obtained using a number of different
multiples
Use a weighted average of the valuations
obtained using a number of different
multiples (one ratio may be more important
than another)
Choose one of the multiples and base your
valuation based on that multiple (usually the
best way as you provide some insights why
that multiple is important remember car
industry video segment)
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