Module 1
Module 1
MANAGEMENT
DEMAND FORCASTING
To Forecast is to
estimate or
calculate in
advance.
To
To minimize
minimize losses
losses
associated
associated with
with
uncontrollable
uncontrollable events
events
external
external to
to the
the organization
organization
To
To provide
provide adequate
adequate
staff
staff to
to support
support
production
production
requirements
requirements
To
To offset
offset the
the actions
actions
of
of competitor
competitor
organization
organization
Reasons for
Demand
forecasting
In
In decision
decision making
making for
for
facility
facility capacity
capacity
planning
planning and
and for
for
capital
capital budgeting
budgeting
As
As an
an input
input to
to
aggregate
aggregate production
production
planning
planning and/materials
and/materials
requirement
requirement planning
planning
To develop
administrative plans
and policies internal
to an organization
To maximize gains
from the events
external to the
organization
To develop policies
that apply to people
who are not part of
the organization
FORECASTING METHODS
QUALITATIVE
METHODS
SUBJECTIVE
METHODS
QUANTITATIVE
OBJECTIVE
METHODS
METHODS
FORECASTING METHODS
QUANTITATIVE
METHODS
QUALITATIVE
METHODS
CUSTOMER
SURVEY
PAST
ANALOGY
SALES FORCE
COMPOSITE
EXECUTIVE
OPINION
TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
CAUSAL
ANALYSIS
DELPHI
METHOD
SIMPLE
MOVING
AVERAGE
SIMPLE
EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING
TREND
ANALYSIS
QUALITATIVE METHODS
Customer surveys:It is the customer who
determines the demand for a product or service.
Customer directly involved in the forcasting process.
Sampling of customers will be taken here.
Time consuming and expensive:at the same
time,they may provide valuable information about
the customers changing preferances,which may not
be easily available elsewhere.
EXECUTIVE OPINION:
DELPHI METHOD
In this method a questionnaire email is sent to experts
from various diversified streams, seeking their opinion
on the forecast of a product.
The experts may be:
Technology forecasters
Sales persons with varied experiences in promoting
high tech products.
PAST ANALOGY
For forecasting the sales of a new product, an analogy of the
sales growth trends of other existing products may be taken.
These products may be substitute of the new product,
complementary products or products related to consumers
belonging to income groups similar to that being targeted by the
new product.
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:
As the term time series analysis suggests, we require a time
series of historical data with respect to time intervals(periods)in
the past to make predictions for future demand.
CAUSAL ANALYSIS:
Trend analysis:
Trend analysis is a forecasting method used
causal quanatitative analysis.
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Exponential smoothing is a technique that can be
applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed
data for presentation, or to make forecasts.
The time series data themselves are a sequence of
observations.
This method is suitable for forecasting data with no trend
or seasonal pattern.
MODULE-2
FACILITY LOCATION-COST COMPLETION AND HIDDEN
FACTORS-STEPS IN LOCATION SELECTION-TYPES OF
MANUFACTURING SYSYTEM AND LAYOUT-FACILITY
LAYOUT-LAYOUT BY PRODUCTS AND PROCESS-LIFE
BALANCING-DESIGN OF OPERATION
SYSYEMS:AGGREGATE PLANNING AND MASTER
SCHEDULING,MRP,CRP.MATERIAL
HANDLING:PRINCIPLES.EQUIPMENTS FOR MATERIAL
HANDLING.
FACILITY LOCATION
FACILITY:
A Factory or
plant is the
manufacturing
facility of a
company.
A Warehouse is
the storage
facility of a
manufacturing or
a distribution
company.
The facility
location decision
is very important
for big business
houses as well
as new
entrepreneurs.
Wrong location
of the facility
may lead to
failure of the
complete project.
BASIC AMENITIES
The area for location of the plant
should have water supply lines
managed by the local muncipal
corporation
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
The government of states such as
Maharashtra,Gujrat and Karnataka
have been very successful in
including big business business
houses to set up their plants in
these states.
Pondicherry is an examples of no
sales tax regions, and therefore we
find that most of the companies
have their offices/warehouses
located there.
PROXIMITY TO SUBCONTRACTORS
The presence of small ancilliary units manufacturing
small components/sub assemblies is important for any
new factory
If a new auto plant is set up in a place where the
maruthy suzuki plant is already located,it will get the
advantage of the subcontractors existing there.
The subcontractors can immediately start supplying the
components required by the new plant for starting its
production process.
RESIDENTIAL
COMPLEXES,SCHOOLS,HOSPITALS,CLUBS
ASSIGNMENT-1
Functions of Operations Management
Explain the historical development of production and
operation management
Discuss the relation with the operation management
and other functions of management