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Hydrologic Statistics: Reading: Chapter 11 in Applied Hydrology Some Slides by Venkatesh Merwade

1) Hydrologic models are classified as deterministic or stochastic. Deterministic models use physical relationships while stochastic models use statistical analysis and consider randomness. 2) Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, expressed as a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. A random variable represents probabilistic uncertainty using values from its sample space. 3) Summary statistics like the mean, variance, and standard deviation describe key properties of random variable samples from a hypothetical population. Graphical displays of time series, histograms, and cumulative distribution functions further illustrate these properties.

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188 views

Hydrologic Statistics: Reading: Chapter 11 in Applied Hydrology Some Slides by Venkatesh Merwade

1) Hydrologic models are classified as deterministic or stochastic. Deterministic models use physical relationships while stochastic models use statistical analysis and consider randomness. 2) Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, expressed as a ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. A random variable represents probabilistic uncertainty using values from its sample space. 3) Summary statistics like the mean, variance, and standard deviation describe key properties of random variable samples from a hypothetical population. Graphical displays of time series, histograms, and cumulative distribution functions further illustrate these properties.

Uploaded by

tsuak
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© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 28

04/04/2006

Hydrologic
Statistics
READING: CHAPTER 11 IN APPLIED HYDROLOGY
SOME SLIDES BY VENKATESH MERWADE

Hydrologic Models

Classification based on randomness.

Deterministic (eg. Rainfall runoff analysis)

Analysis of hydrological processes using


deterministic approaches
Hydrological parameters are based on physical
relations of the various components of the
hydrologic cycle.
Do not consider randomness; a given input
produces the same output.

Stochastic (eg. flood frequency analysis)


Probabilistic description and modeling of
hydrologic phenomena
Statistical analysis of hydrologic data.
2

Probability
A measure of how likely an event will occur
A number expressing the ratio of favorable outcome to the all
possible outcomes
Probability is usually represented as P(.)
P (getting a club from a deck of playing cards) = 13/52 =
0.25 = 25 %
P (getting a 3 after rolling a dice) = 1/6

Random Variable
Random variable: a quantity used to represent
probabilistic uncertainty
Incremental precipitation
Instantaneous streamflow
Wind velocity

Random variable (X) is described by a


probability distribution
Probability distribution is a set of probabilities
associated with the values in a random
variables sample space
4

Sampling terminology
Sample: a finite set of observations x1, x2,.., xn of the
random variable
A sample comes from a hypothetical infinite population
possessing constant statistical properties
Sample space: set of possible samples that can be
drawn from a population
Event: subset of a sample space
Example
Population: streamflow
Sample space: instantaneous streamflow,
annual maximum streamflow, daily average
streamflow
Sample: 100 observations of annual max.
6
streamflow

Types of sampling
Random sampling: the likelihood of selection of each member of the
population is equal
Pick any streamflow value from a population
Stratified sampling: Population is divided into groups, and then a
random sampling is used
Pick a streamflow value from annual maximum series.
Uniform sampling: Data are selected such that the points are uniformly
far apart in time or space
Pick steamflow values measured on Monday midnight
Convenience sampling: Data are collected according to the
convenience of experimenter.
Pick streamflow during summer
7

Summary statistics
Also called descriptive statistics
If x1, x2, xn is a sample then
Mean,

Variance,
Standard
deviation,

1 n
X xi
n i 1
1 n
S
xi X
n 1 i 1
2

for continuous
data
2

for continuous
data
for continuous
data

Coeff. of
variation,

Also included in summary statistics are median, skewness,


correlation coefficient,

Graphical display
Time Series plots
Histograms/Frequency distribution
Cumulative distribution functions
Flow duration curve

10

Time series plot


Plot of variable versus time (bar/line/points)
Example. Annual maximum flow series

Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1905
1900

1908 1900
1918

1927
19001938

1948
1900 1958

1968
1900

1978 1900
1988

Year
Year

Colorado River near Austin


11

1998
1900

Histogram
Plots of bars whose height is the number ni, or
fraction (ni/N), of data falling into one of several
intervals of equal width
30
60
100

90

50
25
No. ofoccurences
occurences
No.
No. of
of occurences

80

Interval = 50,000
cfs
Interval
Interval
==
10,000
25,000 cfs
cfs

70
40
20
60
30
15
50

40

20
10

30

1020
5

10

0
00
0

0 50 50 100100 150
150 200
200 250
250

300
300

350 400
400 450
450 500
500
350

3 3 3cfs)
Annual
ax
flow
(10
Annual
ax
flow
Annualmm
m
ax
flow(10
(10cfs)
cfs)

Dividing the number of occurrences with the total number of points will
give Probability Mass Function
12

Using Excel to plot histograms


1) Make sure Analysis Tookpak is added in
Tools.
This will add data analysis command in
Tools
2) Fill one column with the data, and
another with the intervals (eg. for 50 cfs
interval, fill 0,50,100,)
3) Go to ToolsData
AnalysisHistogram

4) Organize the plot in a


presentable form (change fonts,
scale, color, etc.)

14

Probability density
function
Continuous form of probability mass function is
probability density function
100

0.9

90

Probability
No.
of occurences

0.8
80
0.7
70
0.6
60

50
0.5
40
0.4
30

0.3

20

0.2

10

0.1

0
0

50
100

100

150 200 250 300 350


200
300
400
Annual m ax flow (103 cfs)
Annual m ax flow (103 cfs)

400 450
500

500
600

pdf is the first derivative of a cumulative distribution


function
15

Cumulative distribution
function
Cumulate the pdf to produce a cdf
Cdf describes the probability that a random variable
is less than or equal to specified value of x
1

P (Q 50000) = 0.8

Probability

0.8

P (Q 25000) = 0.4

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0

100

200

300

400

500

Annual m ax flow (103 cfs)


17

600

Flow duration curve


A cumulative frequency curve that shows the percentage of
time that specified discharges are equaled or exceeded.

Steps

Arrange flows in chronological order


Find the number of records (N)
Sort the data from highest to lowest
Rank the data (m=1 for the highest value and m=N for the
lowest value)
Compute exceedance probability for each value using the
following formula

Plot p on x axis and Q (sorted) on y axis


22

Flow duration curve in Excel

600
500

Q (1000 cfs)

400

Median flow

300
200
100
0
0

20

40

60

% of tim e Q w ill be exceeded

23

80

100

Statistical analysis
Regression analysis
Mass curve analysis
Flood frequency analysis
Many more which are beyond the scope of this class!

24

Linear Regression
A technique to determine the relationship between
two random variables.
Relationship between discharge and velocity in a stream
Relationship between discharge and water quality
constituents

yi by
: 0
A regression model is given

1 xi i

i 1,2,..., n

yi = ith observation of the response (dependent variable)


xi = ith observation of the explanatory (independent)
variable
0 = intercept
1 = slope
25

i = random error or residual for the ith observation

Least square regression


We have x1, x2, , xn and y1,y2, , yn observations of
independent and dependent variables, respectively.
Define a linear model for yi,
Fit the model (find b0 and b1) such at the sum of the
y i 0 1 xi
i 1,2,..., n
squares of the vertical deviations is minimum
Minimize

yi yi ( yi 0 1 xi ) 2

i 1,2,..., n

Regression applet:
26
http://www.math.csusb.edu/faculty/stanton/m262/regress/regress.html

Linear Regression in Excel


Steps:

Prepare a scatter plot


Fit a trend line
1800

TDS (mg/L)

1500

Data are for Brazos


River near
Highbank, TX

TDS = 0.5946(sp. Cond) - 15.709


R2 = 0.9903

1200
900
600
300
0
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Specific Conductance ( S/cm)

Alternatively, one can use ToolsData


AnalysisRegression
27

Coefficient of
2
determination (R )

It is the proportion of observed y variation that can


be explained by the simple linear regression model
R2 1

SSE
SST

SST ( yi y ) 2 Total sum of squares, Ybar is the mean of


yi

SSE ( yi y i ) 2 Error sum of squares


The higher the value of R2, the more successful is the model in
explaining y variation.
If R2 is small, search for an alternative model (non linear or
multiple regression model) that can more effectively explain y
variation
28

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