Welcome

American Society for Quality Richmond Chapter

Richmond ,Virginia April 8, 2008

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Session Objectives
1. Overview of Thinking Dimensions LLC and KEPNERandFOURIE methodology 2. Overview recent research in the filed of Problem Solving and Decision Making language for critical thinking 3. Demonstration of one of the Thinking Dimensions (Decision Making) via a case study

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About Thinking Dimensions

Solutions
Corporate Strategy Operational Improvement Learning & Development

Approach
Bring proven decision making and thinking methodologies to assist clients battling growth, cost, productivity and innovation challenges Our collaborative strategy, process improvement and KEPNERandFOURIE Thinking Technologies guide the development of effective corporate strategies, operational improvements, innovation and L&D solutions

Used by some of the most wellknown companies world-wide

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

About KEPNERandFOURIE
Dr. Chuck Kepner

Developed by Dr. Chuck Kepner and Dr. Matthys Fourie

Recognized experts in design and consulting Integration of rational, creative and intuitive dimensions of thinking Application of divergent - convergent thinking skills Scaleable approaches to deal with different tiers of problems and complexity levels Action Plan Oriented Results Based

Dr. Matthys Fourie

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An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes

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The fundamentals of KEPNERandFOURIE thinking

Quality Cost Timeliness Efficiency Growth Alignment

Actions that drive business results: Faster Cheaper Better

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TD Processes Utilize Three Modes of Thinking to Maximize Adoption and Application

1. RATIONAL THINKING
Uses information from direct observation and information that has been gathered from reliable sources considered most reliable and valid

2. INTUITIVE THINKING
What a person has seen and experienced over the years

3. CREATIVE THINKING
Putting known elements together to form new ideas and visions
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PUZZLE Exercise

Key Learning from the Puzzle Exercise

Thinking is a process

Everybody is an expert
Appreciation of the differences

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TDs Approach to ThinkingWorks

Inputs
Information Data Knowledge Experience Facts
Creative

Process
What first?

Output
Business Results Clarified Situations Prioritized Issues Problems Solved Decisions Made Plans Protected

Gather What do we mean by? Sort

Rational

Intuitive

Organize Why? Analyze What now? Confirm

What if?

Quality

Quality

Quality

Questioning is key Makes your Thinking Visible Provides a Consistent Common Language
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The Context and Practical Intent to Make Them Work in Organizations

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Paul Nutts Research

100%

Ohio State University 356 Corporate American Decisions 228 implemented Only 90 still in force after 2 years

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

356
Decisions

228

90
2 years

Implement

Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

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Decisions by decree
100%

271 Decisions taken by decree Only 143 (53%) implemented Only 10 (7% of 143) successful

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

271
Decree

143
Implem't

10
Success
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Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Decisions through participation

85 decisions made through participation
100% 80% 60%

All 85 were implemented

80 (93%) seen as successful 40% after 2 years.

20% 0%

85
Part'ion

85
Implem't

80
Success
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Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Three blunders
Rush to judgment Pressure from the top Take first solution being presented Failure is 4 times more likely Misuse of resources (Spending time and money on the wrong things) Not exploring the reasons or background to the decision situation No stakeholder analysis vested interest Not finding an all-inclusive answer Failure to use any decision process methodologies Poor collaboration and/or participation Using an incomplete process Using power and/or persuasion Will take too long
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Consensus Decision Making

Nature is to compare alternatives against each other Recipe for disaster First sort out the purpose Then get the requirements Compare alternatives to requirements

Requirements

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SolutionWise What Now?

Purpose: To find the best solution for a given situation
Steps:

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Types of Action That Are Decisions

Repairing: Immediate actions to reinstate something to its previous level of usefulness

Improving:

Looking beyond the immediate fix to make fixes less frequent by making things better

Innovating: Thinking creatively about cause and effect (the old way is not good enough)

Avoiding:

Thinking of how to get around the situation to remove or neutralize the cause
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Step 1. State the Purpose

Why: How: To clarify the purpose of the decision Ask: What is the ultimate purpose of this decision? Why do you want to make this decision? or What outcome do you want to achieve? Be as specific and concise as possible

Rules:

Look at the concepts of:

Select Create

Develop

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SolutionWise Demonstration Step 1: State the Purpose

Purpose Statement: Increase market share

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Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: How: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (wish list) 2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask: What are the key requirements for this solution? 3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved. 4. Consider different possibilities such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions Quantify requirements as far as possible Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is reflected in the requirements.
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Rules:

Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements List Stakeholders

Why: Involve Internal and External Stakeholders (the Individual/ Group/ Institution that will be influenced by or have an interest in the outcome(s) of the issue) to maximize collaboration and alignment of requirements Identify Stakeholders:

How:

Internal
Company Customers

External
Competitors Suppliers Influencers (activists, media, associations) Facilitators (Govt, Regulators, Licensing authorities)

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration List Stakeholders

Bank Management

Employees
Marketing Vice-President Suppliers IT Division Head

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Step 2. Listing Solution Requirements (Wish List)

Requirements to fulfill Problems/Symptoms to Remove

What main and secondary results do you want to achieve with this solution?
Risks to Avoid

What existing problems or symptoms do you want to remove?

Resources and Restrictions

In reaching your solution , what risks do you want to avoid?

What money, time and other resources are you permitted to spend, preserve and/or minimize? Any requirements out of your control? (e.g. time, money, legal, political)

Intuitive approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm requirements in general and then check whether all stakeholders were considered Analytical approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm all requirements for each individual stakeholder 24
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SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients
Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: How: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (wish list) 2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask: What are the key requirements for this solution? 3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved. 4. Consider different possibilities such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions Quantify requirements as far as possible Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is reflected in the requirements.
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Rules:

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 Increase market share by at least 2%

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients

Risks to avoid

Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients

Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients

Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients
Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 6 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K Keep operations as simple as possible for employees

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients
Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

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Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 6 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K Keep operations as simple as possible for employees

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Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

Why: To identify the various ways to solve the situation and to evaluate them in terms of each solution requirement 1. Generate Alternatives using any of the following approaches: Combine certain alternatives Build alternatives based on different types of actions Consider short/long term implications/ requirements Use the stated purpose Refer to solution requirements Consider what if scenarios Consult external sources
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How:

Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

2. Evaluate Alternatives How: 1. Evaluate each alternative against each solution requirement. Ask: How does this alternative satisfy the specific requirement? 2. Write down how the alternative satisfies each solution requirement. 3. Identify the best performing elements for each alternative. Ask: Which alternative(s) satisfies the stated requirement the best? Involve all stakeholders. Reach agreement on every aspect of the evaluation.
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Rules:

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 3: Evaluate Alternatives

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
Key Requirements
1 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K

Adverting
3.6%
Some will remember after initial period 5 months

Credit
2.4%
Lock-in for at least 2 years 7 months or longer

Direct
3.6%
Convenience will make them stay longer Within 2 months Learning how to do it

Contest
3%
Short burst only

3 months

No effect

None at all

No effect

65K

74.6K

54K

60K

Keep operations as simple as possible for employees

No effect

More of the same

More complicated

Minor effect 40

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Step 4. Create a Solution

Why: How: To construct the best total solution for a decision METHOD ONE Consider the best performing elements of the various alternatives. Select actions that will meet the solution requirements the best. Create a solution by placing the actions in a logical sequence over a period of time METHOD TWO Select best performing alternative Improve its weak elements with ideas or features from competing alternatives Ensure that all weak areas are identified and addressed
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Rule:

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 4: Create a Solution

1. Go for the Direct Telephone banking for limited access facilities and only advertise this service to targeted audiences.

2. Market and issue Credit Cards to existing client base. Couple this to an internal and external contest for suggesting a friend or family member to the banks credit card campaign.

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An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes

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CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial

KEPNERandFOURIE tools have helped us to substantially improve our project lead time by providing the missing link for us in resolving special cause problems by leveraging systematic critical thinking. These are the tools and methodologies that Black Belts and Green Belts cannot afford to go without.
Don Lynch, Master Black Belt, SKF USA

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CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial

"The KEPNERandFOURIE RCA is a powerful process that helps us think through and resolve problems in a structured and visible manner. I strongly endorse this training. Significantly, it helps our Green and Black belts to implement their Lean Six Sigma initiatives." Doug Smith, MBB, Dean of NAVSEA College

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CauseWise Why?
Purpose: To find the true cause(s) of a deviation

Steps:

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Problem Definition

STANDARD DEVIATION

ACTUAL

Past

Now

Deviation of actual from standard

Cause unknown or unproven

Need to find cause
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Poor Root Cause Practice

95% not having the correct people around the table Dealing with suspect information Average time to resolution is six (6) + months

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Problem solved
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B ud

ge t

Ineffective vs. effective decision making meetings

- Ineffective 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st Qtr Purpose 2nd Qtr Requirements 3rd Qtr Alternatives 4th Qtr Risks 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st Qtr Purpose

- Effective -

2nd Qtr Requirements

3rd Qtr Alternatives

4th Qtr Risks

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Blame Fixing

Pitfall is looking for the people reason first First look for the technical reason True Cause Once verified, then look for the people reason Root Cause

Deviation
EVENT

True Cause
TECHNICAL

Root Cause
PEOPLE

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Good Root Cause Practice

Using the correct stakeholders the first time

60 50

Dealing with accurate information

Average time to solve is 30 minutes to less than one (1) week

40 30 20 10 0 1st Day 1st Wk 1st Mth Later

# Solved

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Questions/Comments
Thinking Dimensions LLC

4234 Upper Park Drive

Fairfax, Virginia 22030 (t) 703-865-6700

(f) 703-865-6701
[email protected] www.thinkingddimensions.com

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Stop talking Bill, its over!

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CauseWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Problem Detail

IS
1 Credit cards

BUT NOT
Savings cards

WHY (NOT)
New supplier More frequently used

Embossing flattened

Damaged strip Printing wrong

Dont know

Dealers All over country

Supplier Specific place only

Cards in use Dont know

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CauseWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Problem Detail

IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s

BUT NOT
Random or any specific place

WHY (NOT)
Half of the card every time Plastic wallet defect

10 days ago

Before/after

Dont know

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CauseWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Problem Detail

IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s

BUT NOT
Random or any specific place

WHY (NOT)
Half of the card every time Plastic wallet defect

10 days ago

Before/after

Dont know

Continuous

Sporadic or periodic

Dont know

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Question 7: Sequence of Events

Alternative Questions 1. When in the sequence of events of the object was the fault first noticed? 2. What was happening to the object in its sequence of events when the fault was first noticed? 3. When in the life cycle of the object was the fault first noticed? 4. Any other cycles?

Question to the void Technique 1. Identify in which phase of the objects life cycle the deviation occurred 2. Once you have identified the phases in the life cycle, it is often useful to identify when specifically in this phase did the deviation occur.

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CauseWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Problem Detail

IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s

BUT NOT
Random or any specific place

WHY (NOT)
Half of the card every time Plastic wallet defect

10 days ago

Before/after

Dont know

Continuous

Sporadic or periodic

Dont know

6-11 months old

Before 6 months

Dont know

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Step 3. Generate Causes

Why: To theorize possible causes of the problem in order to find the true cause To incorporate everyones gut feel and experience in how they think the problem could have been caused. To create a common understanding of the probable cause Look at each Why (Not) individually and/or collectively and ask: Looking at Why (Not) contributions, what would you say is causing the problem? and/or What do you think is causing the problem List a causal statement(s) that will logically explain how the deviation/fault could have occurred.
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How:

Rule:

CauseWise Demonstration Step 3: Develop Possible Causes

1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines.

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CauseWise Demonstration Step 3: Develop Possible Causes

1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines. 2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.

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Step 4. Confirm True Cause - Testing

Why:
How:

To prove the true cause on paper

1. Determine how the cause proves the IS and the BUT NOT. Ask: If X is the true cause, how does it substantiate that we have a problem with the Is and not the BUT NOT?

2. Use a check technique

Rules:

Must explain both the IS and BUT NOT Test destructively Note all assumptions
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CauseWise Demonstration Step 4: Confirm True Cause - Testing

1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines.

YES

YES

YES

NO

2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.

YES

YES

YES

A1

A2

YES

YES

A1: Only if some people put the card in the wallet the other way round A2: Only if the reaction takes up to 6 months to take effect

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