Introduction to Upstream Oil and Gas Training I4TH 16TH May 2013, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi

Risk and financial analysis in Exploration and production

Economic indicators (Investment Economics Evaluation)

Philip M. Tsar
(Petroleum Engineer National Oil Corporation - Kenya)
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Scope
Capital Budgeting Decision Criteria

Net Present Value (NPV), Real and nominal NPVs, Internal rate of return (IRR), Problems with IRR, Payback, Capital productivity index (CPI), Example economic evaluations

Net present Value (NPV) Illustrated

The Net Present Value (NPV) of a project is the present value of all the after tax cash flows connected with the project All its cost and revenues, now and in the future

Where: CF0 = $-63.6 MM; n = 10; CFAT = $11 MM, Net Salvage Value = $ 7.7 MM

Net Present Value (NPV) Continued

Assume you have the following information on Project X: Initial outlay -$1,100 Required return = 10%

Annual cash revenues and expenses are as follows:

Year 1 2

Revenues $1,000 2,000

Expenses $500 1,000

Draw a time line and compute the NPV of project X.

Net Present Value (NPV) Continued

1 Revenues Expenses $1,000 500

Initial outlay ($1,100)

Revenues Expenses
Cash flow

$2,000 1,000
$1,000

Cash flow
$1,100.00 $500 x +454.55 +826.45 +$181.00 NPV 1 1.10

$500

$1,000 x

1 1.10 2

Net Present Value (NPV) Continued Real and Nominal NPVs

Real: Projects cost and revenues, now and in the future pre-inflation/ uninflated i.e. real sums

Nominal: Projects cost and revenues, now and in the future postinflation/inflated i.e. money of the day

Underpinnings of the NPV Rule

Why does the NPV rule work? And what does work mean? Look at it this way:

A firm is created when securityholders supply the funds to acquire assets that will be used to produce and sell a good or a service; The market value of the firm is based on the present value of the cash flows it is expected to generate; Additional investments are good if the present value of the incremental expected cash flows exceeds their cost;

Thus, good projects are those which increase firm value - or, put another way, good projects are those projects that have positive NPVs!
Moral of the story: Invest only in projects with positive NPVs.

Payback Rule Illustrated

The payback period is the length of time until the sum of an investments cash flows equals its cost.

Discounted Payback Illustrated

Some specific benefits and costs of each method of production sharing are outlined below (in addition to those listed on the previous slide):

Ordinary and Discounted Payback

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Average Accounting Return Illustrated

The AAR is a measure of accounting profit relative to book value.

Average net income: 1 Year 2 $240 120 120 80 40 10 $30 3 $160 80 80 80 0 0 $0

Sales Costs Gross profit Depreciation Earnings before taxes Taxes (25%) Net income

$440 220 220 80 140 35 $105

Average net income = ($105 + 30 + 0)/3 = $45

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Average Accounting Return Illustrated (concluded)

Average book value: Initial investment = $240 Average investment = ($240 + 0)/2 = $120

Average accounting return (AAR):

AAR =

Average net income Average book value

$45 $120

= 37.5%

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Internal Rate of Return Illustrated

The Internal Rate of Return(IRR) is the capital investment projects expected rate of return.

To confirm the IRR exceeds the projects cost of capital Does the expected rate of return on the investment exceed the required rate of return? Will it create value?
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Internal Rate of Return Illustrated (concluded)

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Net Present Value Profile

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Multiple Rates of Return

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Multiple Rates of Return (continued)

Whats the IRR? Find the rate at which the computed NPV = 0:
at 25.00%: NPV = _______

at 33.33%: NPV = _______

at 42.86%: NPV = _______

at 66.67%: NPV = _______

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Multiple Rates of Return (continued)

Whats the IRR? Find the rate at which the computed NPV = 0: at 25.00%: NPV = at 33.33%: NPV = at 42.86%: NPV = at 66.67%: NPV = 0 0 0 0

Two questions: 1. Whats going on here? 2. How many IRRs can there be?

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Multiple Rates of Return (concluded)

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IRR, NPV, and Mutually Exclusive Projects

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Mutually Exclusive Projects

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Profitability Index Illustrated

Now lets go back to the initial example - we assumed the following information on Project X: Initial outlay -$1,100 Required return = 10% Annual cash benefits: Year Cash flows

1 2

$ 500 1,000

Whats the Profitability Index (PI)?

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Profitability Index Illustrated (concluded)

Previously we found that the NPV of Project X is equal to:

($454.55 + 826.45) - 1,100 = $1,281.00 - 1,100 = $181.00.

The PI = PV inflows/PV outlay = $1,281.00/1,100 = 1.1645.

This is a good project according to the PI rule. Can you explain why?
Its a good project because the present value of the inflows exceeds the outlay.

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Summary of Investment Criteria

I. Discounted cash flow criteria

A. Net present value (NPV). The NPV of an investment is the difference between its market value and its cost. The NPV rule is to take a project if its NPV is positive. NPV has no serious flaws; it is the preferred decision criterion. B. Internal rate of return (IRR). The IRR is the discount rate that makes the estimated NPV of an investment equal to zero. The IRR rule is to take a project when its IRR exceeds the required return. When project cash flows are not conventional, there may be no IRR or there may be more than one. C. Profitability index (PI). The PI, also called the benefit-cost ratio, is the ratio of present value to cost. The profitability index rule is to take an investment if the index exceeds 1.0. The PI measures the present value per dollar invested.

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Summary of Investment Criteria (concluded)

II. Payback criteria

A. Payback period. The payback period is the length of time until the sum of an investments cash flows equals its cost. The payback period rule is to take a project if its payback period is less than some prespecified cutoff. B. Discounted payback period. The discounted payback period is the length of time until the sum of an investments discounted cash flows equals its cost. The discounted payback period rule is to take an investment if the discounted payback is less than some prespecified cutoff.

III. Accounting criterion

A. Average accounting return (AAR). The AAR is a measure of accounting profit relative to book value. The AAR rule is to take an investment if its AAR exceeds a benchmark.

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Thank you!!

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