Lecture Notes on Probability and Statistics

Dr. Mritunjay K. Singh

October 29, 2024

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5.1 Concept of Probability

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Concept of Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. It is
defined as:
Number of favorable outcomes
P (E) =

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Total number of outcomes
where E is an event of interest. It is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where
0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.
Notation:
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• P (A) denotes the probability of event A occurring.

• S represents the sample space (set of all possible outcomes).

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Solved Example
Example 1
A fair coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting heads?
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Solution:
Total outcomes = 2 (heads, tails)
Favorable outcomes = 1 (heads)
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1
P (getting heads) = = 0.5
2

Example 2
A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find the probability
that it is a queen.
Solution:

Total outcomes = 52, Favorable outcomes (queens) = 4

4 1
P (drawing a queen) = = ≈ 0.077
52 13

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 3
A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the proba-
bility of drawing an Ace?
Solution: There are 4 Aces in a deck of 52 cards.
Probability of drawing an Ace:
Number of favorable outcomes 4 1
P (Ace) = = =
Total outcomes 52 13

Example 4

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A dice is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a number greater than 4?
Solution: Numbers greater than 4 on a die are 5 and 6 (2 outcomes).

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Total outcomes = 6
2 1
P (number > 4 ) = =
6 3

Example 5

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A jar contains 5 red, 3 blue, and 2 green marbles. If one marble is drawn at random,
what is the probability that it is blue?
Solution: Total marbles = 5 + 3 + 2 = 10
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Number of blue marbles = 3
3
P (blue) =
10
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Example 6
Two coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting at least one head?
Solution: Possible outcomes = {HH, HT, TH, TT} (4 outcomes)
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Favorable outcomes (at least one head) = {HH, HT, TH} (3 outcomes)
3
P (at least one head) =
4
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Example 7
A single card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability of drawing a heart or
a diamond?
Solution: Hearts and Diamonds together make 26 cards (half of the deck).
Total outcomes = 52
26 1
P (heart or diamond) = =
52 2

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 8

A number is chosen randomly from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. What is

the probability of choosing a prime number?
Solution: Prime numbers in the set = {2, 3, 5, 7} (4 primes)
Total outcomes = 10
4 2
P (prime) = =
10 5

Example 9

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A bag contains 4 white, 5 black, and 6 red balls. If a ball is drawn at random,
what is the probability it is not black?

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Solution: Total balls = 4 + 5 + 6 = 15
Non-black balls = 4 (white) + 6 (red) = 10
10 2
P (not black) = =
15 3

Example 10
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In a lottery, there are 100 tickets, and only one ticket is a winning ticket. If you
buy one ticket, what is the probability of winning?
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Solution: Total tickets = 100
Winning tickets = 1
1
P (winning) =
100
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5.2 Addition and Multiplication Theorems of Proba-

bility
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Addition Theorem
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For two events A and B:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Multiplication Theorem
For independent events A and B:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

For dependent events A and B:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A),

where P (B|A) is the probability of B occurring given that A has occurred.

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Solved Example
Example 1: Addition Theorem

If P (A) = 0.3, P (B) = 0.5, and P (A ∩ B) = 0.1, find P (A ∪ B).

Solution:
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
P (A ∪ B) = 0.3 + 0.5 − 0.1 = 0.7

Example 2: Multiplication Theorem (Independent Events)

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If P (A) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.6 and A and B are independent events, find P (A ∩ B).
Solution:

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P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B) = 0.4 × 0.6 = 0.24

Example 3: Addition Theorem

In a class, 30% of students play basketball, 40% play soccer, and 10% play both.

P (Basketball) = 0.3,
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What is the probability that a student plays either basketball or soccer?
Solution:

P (Soccer) = 0.4, P (Basketball ∩ Soccer) = 0.1

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Using the addition theorem:

P (Basketball ∪ Soccer) = 0.3 + 0.4 − 0.1 = 0.6

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Example 4: Multiplication Theorem (Independent Events)

Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting a 4 on the first die and a 5
on the second die?
Solution: Let A be the event ”4 on the first die” and B the event ”5 on the second
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die.”
Since these events are independent:
1 1
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P (A) = , P (B) =
6 6
1 1 1
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B) = × =
6 6 36

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 5: Addition Theorem

A card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability that it is a heart or a king?
Solution:
13 4 1
P (Heart) = , P (King) = , P (Heart ∩ King) =
52 52 52
Using the addition theorem:
13 4 1 16 4
P (Heart ∪ King) = + − = =
52 52 52 52 13

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Example 6: Multiplication Theorem (Dependent Events)

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A bag contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. If two balls are drawn without replacement,
what is the probability that both are red?
Solution: Let A be the event that the first ball is red, and B that the second ball
is red.
5
P (A) = ,
9
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A) =
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P (B|A) =
5 4
× =
9 8
4
8
5
18
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Example 7: Addition Theorem (Mutually Exclusive Events)

The probability of winning a game is 0.2, and the probability of losing is 0.3. What
is the probability of either winning or losing?
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Solution: Since winning and losing are mutually exclusive events:

P (Win ∪ Lose) = P (Win) + P (Lose) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5

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Example 8: Multiplication Theorem (Independent Events)

A coin is tossed, and a dice is rolled. What is the probability of getting heads and
a 6?
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Solution: Let A be the event ”getting heads,” and B be ”rolling a 6.”

Since these events are independent:
1 1
P (A) = , P (B) =
2 6
1 1 1
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B) = × =
2 6 12

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 9: Addition Theorem

In a survey, 60% of respondents prefer tea, 40% prefer coffee, and 20% like both.
Find the probability that a respondent likes either tea or coffee.
Solution:

P (Tea) = 0.6, P (Coffee) = 0.4, P (Tea ∩ Coffee) = 0.2

Using the addition theorem:

P (Tea ∪ Coffee) = 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.2 = 0.8

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Example 10: Multiplication Theorem (Dependent Events)

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An urn has 7 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other
without replacement. What is the probability that both are black?
Solution: Let A be the event that the first ball is black, and B that the second is
black.

P (A) =
5
12
,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A) =
5
×
4
12 11
4

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P (B|A) =
11
=
20
132
=
5
33
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Example 11: Addition Theorem

In a survey, 25% of people own a bike, 35% own a car, and 15% own both. Find
the probability that a person owns either a bike or a car.
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Solution:

P (Bike) = 0.25, P (Car) = 0.35, P (Bike ∩ Car) = 0.15

Using the addition theorem:

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P (Bike ∪ Car) = 0.25 + 0.35 − 0.15 = 0.45

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5.3 Measure of Central Tendency

Mean
The mean x̄ of a data set is given by:
n
1X
x̄ = xi
n i=1

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Solved Examples
Example 1
Calculate the mean of the data set 4, 8, 12, 16, 20.
Solution:
4 + 8 + 12 + 16 + 20 60
x̄ = = = 12
5 5

Example 2
Calculate the mean of the data set: 4, 6, 8, 12, 16.

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Solution:
4 + 6 + 8 + 12 + 16 46
Mean = = = 9.2

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5 5

Example 3
Find the mean of the scores 18, 23, 27, 30, 35.
Solution:

Median
Mean =
5
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18 + 23 + 27 + 30 + 35
=
133
5
= 26.6
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The median is the middle value in an ordered data set.

Solved Example
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Example 1
Find the median of the data set: 7, 3, 9, 12, 15.
Solution: Arrange the data in ascending order:
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3, 7, 9, 12, 15

Since there are 5 values (an odd number), median is the middle value, which is the
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3rd value in the ordered list:

Median = 9

Example 2
Find the median for the data set 22, 27, 35, 36, 40, 41.
Solution: Arrange the data in ascending order:

22, 27, 35, 36, 40, 41

Since there are 6 values (even), median is the average of the two middle values:
35 + 36
Median = = 35.5
2

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Mode
The mode is the value that appears most frequently in a data set.

Solved Example
Example 1
Determine the mode of the set 3, 3, 7, 8, 10.
Solution: The number that appears most frequently is 3.

Mode = 3

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Example 2

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Find the mode for the data set 15, 18, 21, 21, 24, 27, 27, 27.
Solution: The most frequent value is 27.

Mode = 27

5.4 Measure of Dispersion

Range
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The range is calculated as:
Range = Max Value − Min Value
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Range
Example 1
Calculate the range of the data set 5, 10, 15, 20, 25.
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Solution:
Range = 25 − 5 = 20
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Example 2
Consider the data set 5, 12, 15, 20, 25. Calculate the range.
Solution: The maximum value is 25, and the minimum value is 5.

Range = Maximum − Minimum = 25 − 5 = 20

Example 3
Given the temperatures recorded over a week: 18◦ , 22◦ , 25◦ , 27◦ , 19◦ , 23◦ , 21◦ . Find
the range.
Solution: The maximum temperature is 27◦ , and the minimum temperature is
18◦ .
Range = 27 − 18 = 9

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 4
For the data set representing students’ scores in a test: 45, 52, 60, 67, 73, 80, 88,
calculate the range.
Solution: The maximum score is 88, and the minimum score is 45.

Range = 88 − 45 = 43

Example 5

Consider the data set of monthly rainfall (in mm): 120, 134, 98, 102, 145, 136, 110.

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Find the range.
Solution: The maximum rainfall recorded is 145 mm, and the minimum rainfall

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recorded is 98 mm.
Range = 145 − 98 = 47

Variance and Standard Deviation

2
σ =
1 X
N

N i=1
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The variance σ 2 and standard deviation σ for a population are:

(xi − x̄)2 , σ=
√
σ2
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Solved Examples
Example 1
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Calculate the variance and standard deviation for the data set 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9.
Solution: We have the data set 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9.
Mean:
2+4+4+4+5+5+7+9
x̄ = =5
8
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Variance:
(2 − 5)2 + (4 − 5)2 + (4 − 5)2 + (4 − 5)2 + (5 − 5)2 + (5 − 5)2 + (7 − 5)2 + (9 − 5)2
σ2 = =4
8
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Standard deviation: √
σ= 4=2

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 2
Given the data set 3, 7, 7, 19, 23, calculate the variance and standard deviation.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 3+7+7+19+23
5
= 11.8
Variance:
(3 − 11.8)2 + (7 − 11.8)2 + (7 − 11.8)2 + (19 − 11.8)2 + (23 − 11.8)2
σ2 = = 52.16
5
Standard deviation: √
σ= 52.16 ≈ 7.22

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Example 3

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Find the variance and standard deviation for the set 10, 15, 15, 20, 25.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 10+15+15+20+25
5
= 17
Variance:
(10 − 17)2 + (15 − 17)2 + (15 − 17)2 + (20 − 17)2 + (25 − 17)2
σ2 = = 25

Standard deviation:

Example 4
σ=
5

√
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25 = 5
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For the data 4, 8, 10, 12, 20, calculate the variance and standard deviation.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 4+8+10+12+20
5
= 10.8
Variance:
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(4 − 10.8)2 + (8 − 10.8)2 + (10 − 10.8)2 + (12 − 10.8)2 + (20 − 10.8)2

σ2 = = 33.76
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Standard deviation: √
σ= 33.76 ≈ 5.81
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Example 5
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Calculate the variance and standard deviation for the data set 6, 9, 12, 15, 18.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 6+9+12+15+18
5
= 12
Variance:
(6 − 12)2 + (9 − 12)2 + (12 − 12)2 + (15 − 12)2 + (18 − 12)2
σ2 = = 18
5
Standard deviation: √
σ= 18 ≈ 4.24

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 6
Find the variance and standard deviation for the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 1+2+3+4+5
5
=3
Variance:
(1 − 3)2 + (2 − 3)2 + (3 − 3)2 + (4 − 3)2 + (5 − 3)2
σ2 = =2
5
Standard deviation: √
σ= 2 ≈ 1.41

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Example 7

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Calculate the variance and standard deviation for the data 8, 10, 10, 10, 12.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 8+10+10+10+12
5
= 10
Variance:
(8 − 10)2 + (10 − 10)2 + (10 − 10)2 + (10 − 10)2 + (12 − 10)2
σ2 = = 1.6

Standard deviation:

Example 8
σ=
√
5

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1.6 ≈ 1.26
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Find the variance and standard deviation for 7, 9, 9, 13, 15.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 7+9+9+13+15
5
= 10.6
Variance:
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(7 − 10.6)2 + (9 − 10.6)2 + (9 − 10.6)2 + (13 − 10.6)2 + (15 − 10.6)2

σ2 = = 8.64
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Standard deviation: √
σ= 8.64 ≈ 2.94
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Example 9
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For the values 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, calculate the variance and standard deviation.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 5+10+15+20+25
5
= 15
Variance:
(5 − 15)2 + (10 − 15)2 + (15 − 15)2 + (20 − 15)2 + (25 − 15)2
σ2 = = 50
5
Standard deviation: √
σ= 50 ≈ 7.07

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 10
Determine the variance and standard deviation for the set 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.
Solution: Mean, x̄ = 6+7+8+9+10
5
=8
Variance:
(6 − 8)2 + (7 − 8)2 + (8 − 8)2 + (9 − 8)2 + (10 − 8)2
σ2 = =2
5
Standard deviation: √
σ= 2 ≈ 1.41

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5.5 Coefficient of Variation

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The Coefficient of Variation (CV) is a standardized measure of dispersion, calculated as:
σ
CV = × 100%
x̄

Solved Examples
Example 1
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It is often used to compare the variability between datasets with different units.
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Given mean x̄ = 10 and standard deviation σ = 3, find the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
σ 3
CV = × 100% = × 100% = 30%
x̄ 10
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Example 2
The mean height of a group of plants is 150 cm, with a standard deviation of 12
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cm. Find the coefficient of variation.

Solution:
σ 12
CV = × 100% = × 100% = 8%
x̄ 150
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Example 3
In a sample of test scores, the mean score is 75, and the standard deviation is 9.
Calculate the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
σ 9
CV = × 100% = × 100% = 12%
x̄ 75

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 4
The mean monthly expenditure of a household is 500withastandarddeviationof 50.
Determine the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
50
CV = × 100% = 10%
500

Example 5
A company’s mean product life span is 40 months with a standard deviation of 4
months. Find the coefficient of variation.

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Solution:
4
CV = × 100% = 10%

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40

Example 6
For a batch of bolts, the average length is 30 mm with a standard deviation of 1.5

CV =
1.5
30 aw
mm. Calculate the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
× 100% = 5%
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Example 7
A sample of employees has a mean age of 35 years and a standard deviation of 7
years. What is the coefficient of variation?
Solution:
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7
CV = × 100% = 20%
35

Example 8
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The mean weight of packages is 10 kg, with a standard deviation of 0.8 kg. Find
the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
0.8
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CV = × 100% = 8%
10

Example 9
In a study, the average daily temperature was found to be 25°C with a standard
deviation of 3°C. Calculate the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
3
CV = × 100% = 12%
25

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Example 10
The average battery life of a smartphone model is 20 hours, with a standard devi-
ation of 1.5 hours. Find the coefficient of variation.
Solution:
1.5
CV = × 100% = 7.5%
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6 Problem Sets Based on Bloom’s Taxonomy

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6.1 Probability

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Remembering
1. Define the term ”probability” in simple terms.

2. List the key differences between independent and dependent events.

Understanding
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1. Explain why the probability of drawing an Ace from a standard deck of cards is 4
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2. Describe the conditions under which the Addition Theorem of Probability is applied.
.
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Applying
1. A bag has 3 red and 5 blue balls. If one ball is drawn, find the probability that it
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is red.

2. If two dice are rolled, calculate the probability of obtaining a sum of 8.

Analyzing
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1. Given two events A and B where P (A) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.3, and P (A ∩ B) = 0.1,
analyze if events A and B are independent.
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2. An urn contains 4 red, 3 blue, and 5 green balls. Analyze the probability of drawing
two red balls consecutively without replacement.

Evaluating
1. Justify whether flipping two fair coins is an independent event scenario.

2. Evaluate the fairness of a game where the probability of winning is calculated to

be only 20%.

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

Creating
1. Devise a real-world problem that requires using the Multiplication Theorem of
Probability to solve.
2. Create a probability problem involving cards that uses both the Addition and Mul-
tiplication Theorems in its solution.

6.2 Measures of Central Tendency (Mean, Median,

Mode)

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Remembering

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1. State the formula for calculating the mean of a data set.
2. Define the mode of a data set.

Understanding

aw
1. Explain why the median is less affected by outliers than the mean.
2. Describe how a data set with multiple modes would appear.
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Applying
1. Given the data set [12, 15, 20, 20, 22], find the mean, median, and mode.
2. For the scores [78, 82, 89, 90, 95], calculate the median.
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Analyzing
1. Given two data sets with the same mean, analyze why one may have a higher
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median than the other.

2. A data set is [5, 7, 7, 10, 12, 12, 15]. Analyze whether the mean or the median would
be more suitable to describe this data set.
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Evaluating
1. Evaluate the effectiveness of using the mean to represent skewed data.
2. Justify why median is preferred over mean when there are extreme values in a data
set.

Creating
1. Construct a real-life scenario where the mode would be the most appropriate mea-
sure of central tendency.
2. Develop a problem that requires calculating the mean, median, and mode of a mixed
data set and determining which measure best represents the data.

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Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes

6.3 Measures of Dispersion (Range, Variance, Stan-

dard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation)
Remembering
1. Define the range of a data set.

2. Write down the formula for calculating variance.

Understanding

a
1. Explain how the standard deviation gives insight into data spread.

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2. Describe why a higher coefficient of variation might indicate more relative variabil-
ity.

Applying

aw
1. For the data set [5, 10, 10, 15, 20], calculate the range and variance.

2. Calculate the standard deviation for the data set [4, 8, 12, 16, 20].

Analyzing
.N
1. Analyze two data sets [10, 15, 15, 20, 25] and [10, 20, 30, 40, 50]. Which has a larger
standard deviation?

2. Given a data set with a high coefficient of variation, analyze the implications of this
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variability.

Evaluating
1. Evaluate the reliability of standard deviation as a measure of dispersion for a small
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data set.

2. Justify why variance is essential for understanding the spread in a data set, despite
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being in squared units.

Creating
1. Create a problem that requires calculating the range, variance, and standard devi-
ation for a mixed data set.

2. Design a scenario in a business context where the coefficient of variation is critical

to decision-making.

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