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Biostatistics A Foundation for Analysis in the Health
Sciences 9th Edition Wayne W. Daniel Digital Instant
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Author(s): Wayne W. Daniel
ISBN(s): 9780470105825, 0470105828
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LibraryPirate
NINTH EDITION

BIOSTATISTICS
A Foundation for Analysis
in the Health Sciences

WAY N E W. DA N I E L
Professor Emeritus
Georgia State University

JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.

PUBLISHER Laurie Rosatone
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Wayne W. Daniel
Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the Health Sciences, Ninth Edition

ISBN 978-0-470-10582-5

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
 To my wife, Mary,
and my children, Jean,
Carolyn, and John

Special thanks are extended to Professor Chad Cross,

of the School of Public Health at the University of Nevada,
Las Vegas, for his many contributions to this edition.
He has introduced numerous new topics and explanatory comments
that have broadened greatly the scope of the book.
This page intentionally left blank
PREFACE

This ninth edition of Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the Health Sciences
should appeal to the same audience for which the first eight editions were written:
advanced undergraduate students, beginning graduate students, and health professionals
in need of a reference book on statistical methodology.
Like its predecessors, this edition requires few mathematical prerequisites. Only
reasonable proficiency in algebra is required for an understanding of the concepts and
methods underlying the calculations. The emphasis continues to be on an intuitive
understanding of principles rather than an understanding based on mathematical
sophistication.
For most of the statistical techniques covered in this edition, we discuss the capa-
bilities of one or more software packages (MINITAB, SAS, SPSS, and NCSS) that may
be used to perform the calculations needed for their application. Resulting screen dis-
plays are also shown.

NEW TO THIS EDITION

Chapter Overviews. In this edition, we introduce each chapter with a brief chapter
overview that alerts students to the concepts that they will encounter as they read and
study the chapter. The chapter overviews use non-technical language in order to provide
students with a general understanding of the chapter contents without having to be con-
fronted with unfamiliar terminology.

Leaning Outcomes. Before they begin reading each chapter, students are provided with
a list of learning outcomes that inform them of what they will be expected to know after
having read and studied the chapter. Instructors may also use the learning outcomes as
guides when preparing chapter-by-chapter syllabi.

Summaries of Equations. Where appropriate, students will find at the ends of chapters
a summary of the equations that were used in the chapter. This feature will provide stu-
dents with a quick reference source when working on homework assignments. Instruc-
tors who wish to do so may allow students to bring copies of the equation summaries
to the classroom for use during tests.

New Topics. Following is a chapter-by-chapter summary of the topics that are new to
this edition of Biostatistics.

v
vi PREFACE

Chapter 1 Introduction to Biostatistics. The sampling topic is expanded to include a

discussion of systematic sampling, including comments on stratified systematic sampling
and stratified sampling proportional to size. A new section is devoted to the scientific
method and the design of experiments.

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics. Skewness and kurtosis are discussed in considerable

detail and illustrated with computer-generated graphs.

Chapter 3 Some Basic Probability Concepts. The discussion of Bayesian proba-

bility is expanded to enhance students’ understanding of the application of Bayes’s
theorem.

Chapter 4 Probability Distributions. The discussion of probability distributions is

expanded.

Chapter 5 Some Important Sampling Distributions. This chapter is essentially

unchanged.

Chapter 6 Estimation. Several brief comments and new computer output are added for
the purpose of clarifying certain topics.

Chapter 7 Hypothesis Testing. This chapter contains several new computer printouts.

Chapter 8 Analysis of Variance. Additional comments and new computer printouts are
added to help clarify several topics covered in this chapter.

Chapter 9 Simple Linear Regression and Correlation. Several explanatory comments,

a section on testing the regression assumptions, and several computer printouts are new
to this chapter.

Chapter 10 Multiple Regression and Correlation. New to this chapter are several com-
puter printouts and comments for added clarification.

Chapter 11 Regression Analysis: Some Additional Techniques. The discussion of

regression assumptions is expanded to include the following topics: non-normal data,
unequal error variances, and correlated independent variables. The discussion of variable
selection procedures is expanded to include forward selection and backward elimination
strategies. Discussions of multiple logistic regression and polytomous logistic regression
have been added to the logistic regression section.

Chapter 12 The Chi-Square Distribution and the Analysis of Frequencies. This

chapter contains several new explanatory paragraphs, new examples, and new computer
printouts. The section on survival analysis has been expanded and augmented with new
computer output.
 PREFACE vii

Chapter 13 Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Statistics. New explanatory com-

ments and computer printouts have been added in this chapter.

Chapter 14 Vital Statistics. The introduction now includes a paragraph on epidemiology.

SUPPLEMENTS

Instructor’s Solutions Manual. Prepared by Chad Cross, University of Nevada, Las

Vegas. Includes solutions to all problems found in the text. Available only to instructors
who have adopted the text.

New! Student Solutions Manual. Prepared by Chad Cross, University of Nevada, Las
Vegas. Includes solutions to all odd numbered exercises. May be packaged with the text
at a discounted price.

Data Sets. More than 250 data sets of varying sizes have been integrated throughout the
exposition, evidencing this edition’s focus on currency and relevance to modern students.
All examples, section exercises, and review exercises of more then 20 entries are avail-
able at the Wiley Web site below. The large data sets are designed for analysis by the
following techniques: probability (Chapter 3), interval estimation (Chapter 6), hypothesis
testing (Chapter 7), analysis of variance (Chapter 8), simple linear regression (Chapter 9),
multiple regression (Chapter 10), advanced regression analysis (Chapter 11), and chi-
square (Chapter 12). Exercises at the end of these chapters instruct students on how to
use the large data sets. The data sets are available to both instructor and student for down-
load from the Wiley Web site at

www.wiley.com/college/daniel

If you do not have Internet access, please contact the publisher at 111 River Street,
Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, telephone: 1-877-762-2974 to obtain the electronic files.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

For their many helpful suggestions on how to make this edition of Biostatistics better, I wish
to express my gratitude to the many readers of the previous editions and to the instructors
who have used the book in their classrooms. In particular, I thank the following people who
made valuable recommendations for this revision:

Emilia Bagiella Columbia University

Yi Cheng Indiana University, South Bend
Casey Cremins University of Maryland
Kate Crespi University of California, Los Angeles
viii PREFACE

Edward Danial Morgan State University

David Elashoff University of California, Los Angeles
Stephen Ganocy Case Western Reserve University
Bhisham Gupta University of Southern Maine
James Halavin Rochester Institute of Technology
Jean Lambert University of Montreal
Mia Markey University of Texas, Austin
Nutan Mishra University of Southern Alabama
Amal Mitra University of Southern Mississippi
Thomas Jay Morrison Ohio Northern University
Theophile Niyonsenga Florida International University
Leonard Onyiah St. Cloud State University
Robert Serfling University of Texas, Dallas
Richard Shiavi Vanderbilt University
Pramil Singh Loma Linda University
James Stanley Baylor University
Gary Stanek Youngstown State University
Paul Weiss Emory University

I wish to acknowledge the cooperation of Minitab, Inc. for making available to me over
the years the latest versions of the MINITAB software package for illustrating the use
of the microcomputer in statistical analysis.
I gratefully acknowledge a major contribution to this edition of Biostatistics by
Professor John P. Holcomb of the Department of Mathematics at Cleveland State University,
Cleveland, Ohio.
Thanks go to Professor Chad L. Cross of the School of Public Health at the Univer-
sity of Nevada, Las Vegas, for the new material that he provided for this ninth edition.
Thanks are due to my colleagues at Georgia State University—Professors Geoffrey
Churchill and Brian Schott, who wrote computer programs for generating some of the
Appendix tables—and Professor Lillian Lin, who read the section on logistic regression
and made valuable suggestions for its improvement.
I gratefully acknowledge the help of Dr. James T. Wassell for his help with the
section on survival analysis.
I am grateful to the many researchers in the health sciences field who so gener-
ously made available raw data from their research projects. These data appear in the
examples and exercises and are acknowledged individually wherever they appear. I would
also like to thank the editors and publishers of the various journals who gave permission
to reprint data from their publications for use in many of the examples and exercises.

Wayne W. Daniel
 CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION TO BIOSTATISTICS 1 3.6 Summary 84

Review Questions and Exercises 86
1.1 Introduction 2 References 91
1.2 Some Basic Concepts 2
1.3 Measurement and Measurement
Scales 5 4 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 93
1.4 Sampling and Statistical Inference 7
1.5 The Scientific Method and the Design of 4.1 Introduction 94
Experiments 13 4.2 Probability Distributions of Discrete
1.6 Computers and Biostatistical Analysis 15 Variables 94
1.7 Summary 16 4.3 The Binomial Distribution 100
Review Questions and Exercises 17 4.4 The Poisson Distribution 109
References 18 4.5 Continuous Probability Distributions 114
4.6 The Normal Distribution 117
4.7 Normal Distribution Applications 123
2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 19 4.8 Summary 129
Review Questions and Exercises 131
2.1 Introduction 20 References 134
2.2 The Ordered Array 20
2.3 Grouped Data: The Frequency
Distribution 22 5 SOME IMPORTANT SAMPLING
2.4 Descriptive Statistics: Measures of Central DISTRIBUTIONS 135
Tendency 38
2.5 Descriptive Statistics: Measures 5.1 Introduction 136
of Dispersion 43 5.2 Sampling Distributions 136
2.6 Summary 54 5.3 Distribution of the Sample Mean 137
Review Questions and Exercises 56 5.4 Distribution of the Difference Between
References 63 Two Sample Means 146
5.5 Distribution of the Sample Proportion 151
5.6 Distribution of the Difference Between Two
3 SOME BASIC PROBABILITY Sample Proportions 155
CONCEPTS 65 5.7 Summary 158
Review Questions and Exercises 159
3.1 Introduction 66 References 161
3.2 Two Views of Probability: Objective and
Subjective 66
3.3 Elementary Properties of Probability 68 6 ESTIMATION 162
3.4 Calculating the Probability of an Event 69
3.5 Bayes’ Theorem, Screening Tests, 6.1 Introduction 163
Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive 6.2 Confidence Interval for a Population
Value Positive and Negative 79 Mean 166
ix
x CONTENTS

6.3 The t Distribution 172 8.3 The Randomized Complete Block

6.4 Confidence Interval for the Difference Design 334
Between Two Population Means 178 8.4 The Repeated Measures Design 346
6.5 Confidence Interval for a Population 8.5 The Factorial Experiment 353
Proportion 185 8.6 Summary 368
6.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference Review Questions and Exercises 371
Between Two Population Proportions 187 References 404
6.7 Determination of Sample Size for
Estimating Means 189
6.8 Determination of Sample Size for 9 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
Estimating Proportions 192 AND CORRELATION 409
6.9 Confidence Interval for the Variance of a
Normally Distributed Population 194 9.1 Introduction 410
6.10 Confidence Interval for the Ratio 9.2 The Regression Model 410
of the Variances of Two Normally 9.3 The Sample Regression Equation 413
Distributed Populations 199 9.4 Evaluating the Regression Equation 423
6.11 Summary 203 9.5 Using the Regression Equation 437
Review Questions and Exercises 206 9.6 The Correlation Model 441
References 212 9.7 The Correlation Coefficient 442
9.8 Some Precautions 455
9.9 Summary 456
7 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 215
Review Questions and Exercises 460
7.1 Introduction 216 References 482
7.2 Hypothesis Testing: A Single Population
Mean 223
7.3 Hypothesis Testing: The Difference Between 10 MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND
Two Population Means 237 CORRELATION 485
7.4 Paired Comparisons 250
10.1 Introduction 486
7.5 Hypothesis Testing: A Single Population
10.2 The Multiple Linear Regression
Proportion 258
Model 486
7.6 Hypothesis Testing: The Difference Between
10.3 Obtaining the Multiple Regression
Two Population Proportions 262
Equation 488
7.7 Hypothesis Testing: A Single Population
10.4 Evaluating the Multiple Regression
Variance 265
Equation 497
7.8 Hypothesis Testing: The Ratio of Two
10.5 Using the Multiple Regression
Population Variances 268
Equation 503
7.9 The Type II Error and the
10.6 The Multiple Correlation Model 506
Power of a Test 273
10.7 Summary 519
7.10 Determining Sample Size to Control
Type II Errors 278 Review Questions and Exercises 521
7.11 Summary 281 References 533
Review Questions and Exercises 283
References 301
11 REGRESSION ANALYSIS: SOME
ADDITIONAL TECHNIQUES 535
8 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE 305
11.1 Introduction 536
8.1 Introduction 306 11.2 Qualitative Independent Variables 539
8.2 The Completely Randomized Design 308 11.3 Variable Selection Procedures 556
 CONTENTS xi

11.4 Logistic Regression 565 13.5 The Median Test 699

11.5 Summary 575 13.6 The Mann–Whitney Test 703
Review Questions and Exercises 576 13.7 The Kolmogorov–Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit
References 590 Test 711
13.8 The Kruskal–Wallis One-Way Analysis of
Variance by Ranks 717
12 THE CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION 13.9 The Friedman Two-Way Analysis of
AND THE ANALYSIS OF Variance by Ranks 725
FREQUENCIES 593 13.10 The Spearman Rank Correlation
Coefficient 731
12.1 Introduction 594 13.11 Nonparametric Regression Analysis 740
12.2 The Mathematical Properties of the 13.12 Summary 743
Chi-Square Distribution 594 Review Questions and Exercises 745
12.3 Tests of Goodness-of-Fit 597 References 760
12.4 Tests of Independence 612
12.5 Tests of Homogeneity 623
12.6 The Fisher Exact Test 629 14 VITAL STATISTICS 763
12.7 Relative Risk, Odds Ratio, and the
14.1 Introduction 764
Mantel–Haenszel Statistic 634
14.2 Death Rates and Ratios 765
12.8 Survival Analysis 648
14.3 Measures of Fertility 772
12.9 Summary 664
14.4 Measures of Morbidity 776
Review Questions and Exercises 666
14.5 Summary 777
References 678
Review Questions and Exercises 779
References 782
13 NONPARAMETRIC AND
DISTRIBUTION-FREE STATISTICS 683
APPENDIX: STATISTICAL TABLES A-1
13.1 Introduction 684
13.2 Measurement Scales 685 ANSWERS TO ODD-NUMBERED
13.3 The Sign Test 686 EXERCISES A-106
13.4 The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test for
Location 694 INDEX I-1
This page intentionally left blank
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION TO
BIOSTATISTICS

CHAPTER OVERVIEW
This chapter is intended to provide an overview of the basic statistical con-
cepts used throughout the textbook. A course in statistics requires the student
to learn many new terms and concepts. This chapter lays the foundation nec-
essary for the understanding of basic statistical terms and concepts and the
role that statisticians play in promoting scientific discovery and wisdom.

TOPICS
1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.2 SOME BASIC CONCEPTS
1.3 MEASUREMENT AND MEASUREMENT SCALES
1.4 SAMPLING AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE
1.5 THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD AND THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS
1.6 COMPUTERS AND BIOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS
1.7 SUMMARY

LEARNING OUTCOMES
After studying this chapter, the student will
1. understand the basic concepts and terminology of biostatistics, including the
various kinds of variables, measurement, and measurement scales.
2. be able to select a simple random sample and other scientific samples from a
population of subjects.
3. understand the processes involved in the scientific method and the design of
experiments.
4. appreciate the advantages of using computers in the statistical analysis of data
generated by studies and experiments conducted by researchers in the health
sciences.

1
2 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO BIOSTATISTICS

1.1 INTRODUCTION

We are frequently reminded of the fact that we are living in the information age. Appro-
priately, then, this book is about information—how it is obtained, how it is analyzed,
and how it is interpreted. The information about which we are concerned we call data,
and the data are available to us in the form of numbers.
The objectives of this book are twofold: (1) to teach the student to organize and
summarize data, and (2) to teach the student how to reach decisions about a large body
of data by examining only a small part of the data. The concepts and methods necessary
for achieving the first objective are presented under the heading of descriptive statistics,
and the second objective is reached through the study of what is called inferential sta-
tistics. This chapter discusses descriptive statistics. Chapters 2 through 5 discuss topics
that form the foundation of statistical inference, and most of the remainder of the book
deals with inferential statistics.
Because this volume is designed for persons preparing for or already pursuing a
career in the health field, the illustrative material and exercises reflect the problems and
activities that these persons are likely to encounter in the performance of their duties.

1.2 SOME BASIC CONCEPTS

Like all fields of learning, statistics has its own vocabulary. Some of the words and
phrases encountered in the study of statistics will be new to those not previously exposed
to the subject. Other terms, though appearing to be familiar, may have specialized mean-
ings that are different from the meanings that we are accustomed to associating with
these terms. The following are some terms that we will use extensively in this book.

Data The raw material of statistics is data. For our purposes we may define data as
numbers. The two kinds of numbers that we use in statistics are numbers that result from
the taking—in the usual sense of the term—of a measurement, and those that result from
the process of counting. For example, when a nurse weighs a patient or takes a patient’s
temperature, a measurement, consisting of a number such as 150 pounds or 100 degrees
Fahrenheit, is obtained. Quite a different type of number is obtained when a hospital
administrator counts the number of patients—perhaps 20—discharged from the hospital
on a given day. Each of the three numbers is a datum, and the three taken together are
data.

Statistics The meaning of statistics is implicit in the previous section. More con-
cretely, however, we may say that statistics is a field of study concerned with (1) the
collection, organization, summarization, and analysis of data; and (2) the drawing of
inferences about a body of data when only a part of the data is observed.
The person who performs these statistical activities must be prepared to interpret
and to communicate the results to someone else as the situation demands. Simply put,
we may say that data are numbers, numbers contain information, and the purpose of sta-
tistics is to investigate and evaluate the nature and meaning of this information.
 1.2 SOME BASIC CONCEPTS 3

Sources of Data The performance of statistical activities is motivated by the need

to answer a question. For example, clinicians may want answers to questions regarding
the relative merits of competing treatment procedures. Administrators may want answers
to questions regarding such areas of concern as employee morale or facility utilization.
When we determine that the appropriate approach to seeking an answer to a question
will require the use of statistics, we begin to search for suitable data to serve as the raw
material for our investigation. Such data are usually available from one or more of the
following sources:

1. Routinely kept records. It is difficult to imagine any type of organization that

does not keep records of day-to-day transactions of its activities. Hospital medical
records, for example, contain immense amounts of information on patients, while
hospital accounting records contain a wealth of data on the facility’s business activ-
ities. When the need for data arises, we should look for them first among routinely
kept records.
2. Surveys. If the data needed to answer a question are not available from routinely
kept records, the logical source may be a survey. Suppose, for example, that the
administrator of a clinic wishes to obtain information regarding the mode of trans-
portation used by patients to visit the clinic. If admission forms do not contain a
question on mode of transportation, we may conduct a survey among patients to
obtain this information.
3. Experiments. Frequently the data needed to answer a question are available only
as the result of an experiment. A nurse may wish to know which of several strate-
gies is best for maximizing patient compliance. The nurse might conduct an exper-
iment in which the different strategies of motivating compliance are tried with dif-
ferent patients. Subsequent evaluation of the responses to the different strategies
might enable the nurse to decide which is most effective.
4. External sources. The data needed to answer a question may already exist in
the form of published reports, commercially available data banks, or the research
literature. In other words, we may find that someone else has already asked
the same question, and the answer obtained may be applicable to our present
situation.

Biostatistics The tools of statistics are employed in many fields—business, edu-

cation, psychology, agriculture, and economics, to mention only a few. When the data
analyzed are derived from the biological sciences and medicine, we use the term biosta-
tistics to distinguish this particular application of statistical tools and concepts. This area
of application is the concern of this book.

Variable If, as we observe a characteristic, we find that it takes on different values

in different persons, places, or things, we label the characteristic a variable. We do this
for the simple reason that the characteristic is not the same when observed in different
possessors of it. Some examples of variables include diastolic blood pressure, heart rate,
the heights of adult males, the weights of preschool children, and the ages of patients
seen in a dental clinic.
4 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO BIOSTATISTICS

Quantitative Variables A quantitative variable is one that can be measured in

the usual sense. We can, for example, obtain measurements on the heights of adult males,
the weights of preschool children, and the ages of patients seen in a dental clinic. These
are examples of quantitative variables. Measurements made on quantitative variables
convey information regarding amount.

Qualitative Variables Some characteristics are not capable of being measured

in the sense that height, weight, and age are measured. Many characteristics can be
categorized only, as, for example, when an ill person is given a medical diagnosis, a
person is designated as belonging to an ethnic group, or a person, place, or object is
said to possess or not to possess some characteristic of interest. In such cases meas-
uring consists of categorizing. We refer to variables of this kind as qualitative vari-
ables. Measurements made on qualitative variables convey information regarding
attribute.
Although, in the case of qualitative variables, measurement in the usual sense of
the word is not achieved, we can count the number of persons, places, or things belong-
ing to various categories. A hospital administrator, for example, can count the number
of patients admitted during a day under each of the various admitting diagnoses. These
counts, or frequencies as they are called, are the numbers that we manipulate when our
analysis involves qualitative variables.

Random Variable Whenever we determine the height, weight, or age of an indi-

vidual, the result is frequently referred to as a value of the respective variable. When the
values obtained arise as a result of chance factors, so that they cannot be exactly pre-
dicted in advance, the variable is called a random variable. An example of a random
variable is adult height. When a child is born, we cannot predict exactly his or her height
at maturity. Attained adult height is the result of numerous genetic and environmental
factors. Values resulting from measurement procedures are often referred to as observa-
tions or measurements.

Discrete Random Variable Variables may be characterized further as to

whether they are discrete or continuous. Since mathematically rigorous definitions of dis-
crete and continuous variables are beyond the level of this book, we offer, instead, non-
rigorous definitions and give an example of each.
A discrete variable is characterized by gaps or interruptions in the values that it
can assume. These gaps or interruptions indicate the absence of values between particu-
lar values that the variable can assume. Some examples illustrate the point. The number
of daily admissions to a general hospital is a discrete random variable since the number
of admissions each day must be represented by a whole number, such as 0, 1, 2, or 3.
The number of admissions on a given day cannot be a number such as 1.5, 2.997, or
3.333. The number of decayed, missing, or filled teeth per child in an elementary school
is another example of a discrete variable.

Continuous Random Variable A continuous random variable does not

possess the gaps or interruptions characteristic of a discrete random variable. A con-
tinuous random variable can assume any value within a specified relevant interval of
 1.3 MEASUREMENT AND MEASUREMENT SCALES 5

values assumed by the variable. Examples of continuous variables include the various
measurements that can be made on individuals such as height, weight, and skull cir-
cumference. No matter how close together the observed heights of two people, for
example, we can, theoretically, find another person whose height falls somewhere in
between.
Because of the limitations of available measuring instruments, however, observa-
tions on variables that are inherently continuous are recorded as if they were discrete.
Height, for example, is usually recorded to the nearest one-quarter, one-half, or whole
inch, whereas, with a perfect measuring device, such a measurement could be made as
precise as desired.

Population The average person thinks of a population as a collection of entities,

usually people. A population or collection of entities may, however, consist of animals,
machines, places, or cells. For our purposes, we define a population of entities as the
largest collection of entities for which we have an interest at a particular time. If we
take a measurement of some variable on each of the entities in a population, we gener-
ate a population of values of that variable. We may, therefore, define a population of
values as the largest collection of values of a random variable for which we have an
interest at a particular time. If, for example, we are interested in the weights of all the
children enrolled in a certain county elementary school system, our population consists
of all these weights. If our interest lies only in the weights of first-grade students in the
system, we have a different population—weights of first-grade students enrolled in the
school system. Hence, populations are determined or defined by our sphere of interest.
Populations may be finite or infinite. If a population of values consists of a fixed num-
ber of these values, the population is said to be finite. If, on the other hand, a popula-
tion consists of an endless succession of values, the population is an infinite one.

Sample A sample may be defined simply as a part of a population. Suppose our

population consists of the weights of all the elementary school children enrolled in a
certain county school system. If we collect for analysis the weights of only a fraction
of these children, we have only a part of our population of weights, that is, we have a
sample.

1.3 MEASUREMENT AND

MEASUREMENT SCALES

In the preceding discussion we used the word measurement several times in its usual sense,
and presumably the reader clearly understood the intended meaning. The word measure-
ment, however, may be given a more scientific definition. In fact, there is a whole body
of scientific literature devoted to the subject of measurement. Part of this literature is con-
cerned also with the nature of the numbers that result from measurements. Authorities on
the subject of measurement speak of measurement scales that result in the categorization
of measurements according to their nature. In this section we define measurement and the
four resulting measurement scales. A more detailed discussion of the subject is to be found
in the writings of Stevens (1, 2).
6 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO BIOSTATISTICS

Measurement This may be defined as the assignment of numbers to objects or

events according to a set of rules. The various measurement scales result from the fact
that measurement may be carried out under different sets of rules.

The Nominal Scale The lowest measurement scale is the nominal scale. As the
name implies it consists of “naming” observations or classifying them into various mutu-
ally exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories. The practice of using numbers to
distinguish among the various medical diagnoses constitutes measurement on a nominal
scale. Other examples include such dichotomies as male–female, well–sick, under 65
years of age–65 and over, child–adult, and married–not married.

The Ordinal Scale Whenever observations are not only different from category
to category but can be ranked according to some criterion, they are said to be measured
on an ordinal scale. Convalescing patients may be characterized as unimproved,
improved, and much improved. Individuals may be classified according to socioeconomic
status as low, medium, or high. The intelligence of children may be above average, aver-
age, or below average. In each of these examples the members of any one category are
all considered equal, but the members of one category are considered lower, worse, or
smaller than those in another category, which in turn bears a similar relationship to
another category. For example, a much improved patient is in better health than one clas-
sified as improved, while a patient who has improved is in better condition than one who
has not improved. It is usually impossible to infer that the difference between members
of one category and the next adjacent category is equal to the difference between mem-
bers of that category and the members of the next category adjacent to it. The degree of
improvement between unimproved and improved is probably not the same as that
between improved and much improved. The implication is that if a finer breakdown were
made resulting in more categories, these, too, could be ordered in a similar manner. The
function of numbers assigned to ordinal data is to order (or rank) the observations from
lowest to highest and, hence, the term ordinal.

The Interval Scale The interval scale is a more sophisticated scale than the
nominal or ordinal in that with this scale not only is it possible to order measurements,
but also the distance between any two measurements is known. We know, say, that the
difference between a measurement of 20 and a measurement of 30 is equal to the dif-
ference between measurements of 30 and 40. The ability to do this implies the use of a
unit distance and a zero point, both of which are arbitrary. The selected zero point is not
necessarily a true zero in that it does not have to indicate a total absence of the quan-
tity being measured. Perhaps the best example of an interval scale is provided by the
way in which temperature is usually measured (degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius). The unit
of measurement is the degree, and the point of comparison is the arbitrarily chosen “zero
degrees,” which does not indicate a lack of heat. The interval scale unlike the nominal
and ordinal scales is a truly quantitative scale.

The Ratio Scale The highest level of measurement is the ratio scale. This scale
is characterized by the fact that equality of ratios as well as equality of intervals may be
Other documents randomly have
different content
“Thrift!”

What did the word mean?

She reached for her dictionary.

Thrift—care and prudence in the management of one’s resources.

Well, Larry’s salary was their one resource—and there was no

increasing it. The seven little envelopes were as inevitable as the
rising and the setting of the sun.

What had Larry said? It was up to Duggan to reduce the force of

workers or cut their wages. She had long since parted with a general
housekeeper who represented waste in the kitchen. Now she was
doing her own cooking, with Lena, a young Swedish girl, at three
dollars a week to help in the kitchen, wash dishes and take the
children for their daily airing on Riverside Drive, and a laundress one
day in the week. No, there was no reducing the force or wages.

And what had Larry said about the purchasing department?

“Buy to better advantage. Find a new market.”

She shuddered at the thought. Had she not bought a lot of canned
goods at a department store sale, only to find that they were
“seconds” and tasteless? Hadn’t Aunt Myra induced her to buy
poultry, eggs and cheese from the man who ran Uncle Jack’s farm
on shares, with the result that one-third of the eggs were broken
through poor packing, and they had to live on poultry for days
interminable—or have it spoil on their hands?

And Mr. Dorlon, the grocer, was so clean and convenient and
obliging. She simply could not change, she told herself firmly. And
yet, the lecturer insinuated that a housewife wasted money when
she did not know food values. She had decided that the very
foundations of her household management were shaking, when the
telephone bell rang and she hurried down the hall to answer it.

“Can’t you and Larry come over to dinner to-night?” Teresa Moore
inquired. “The Gregorys are stopping over on their way to
California.”

“Oh,” sighed Mrs. Larry. “Larry’s just left for South Bethlehem. I’m so
sorry.”

“Well, you can come. I’ll telephone Claire Pierce and Jimmy Graves.
Jimmy met the Gregorys last summer.”

“Claire might come, but Jimmy’s gone back to Kansas City. Invite
Claire and I’ll drop out.”

“Not for a minute,” answered Mrs. Moore. “I’ll phone my brother to

fill Larry’s place. It’s all very informal. We’ll just make it seven
instead of eight. We’ll all take you home and stop somewhere to trot
a bit. Do come. Larry would want you to.”

“All right,” said Mrs. Larry, almost blithely. She stopped at the
secretary long enough to thrust the bothersome envelopes into a
drawer. At Teresa Moore’s there never seemed any question about
giving a little dinner or going to the theater, and yet George Moore
earned only fifty dollars more a month than Larry did. To be sure,
the Moores had only one baby—and Teresa’s mother gave her an
occasional frock. Still, some day she would ask Teresa for a little
inside information on budget-building.

It was Teresa’s bachelor brother who made the opening for Mrs.
Larry that very evening at dinner. He looked with undisguised
admiration upon a baked potato which had just been served to him
by the trim maid.

“Teresa, I take my hat off to your baked potatoes. There isn’t a club
chef in New York who can hold a candle to you when it comes to
baking these.”

“It isn’t the baking, my dear boy, it’s the buying of them. A watery
potato won’t bake well.”

“Ah—and how, pray, do you know a watery potato from a dry one?”
inquired her brother with something akin to respect in his voice.

“By breaking them open, silly boy,” she answered with a gay little
laugh. “As runs one, so, generally speaking, runs the whole basket. I
don’t look at the size or smoothness of the skin, but at the grain of
the broken potato.”

“Are they Maine or Long Island potatoes?” asked Mrs. Larry

suddenly.

“Maine,” answered Mrs. Moore. “There isn’t a Long Island potato on

the market to-day.”

“But, Mr. Dorlon—”

“Told you so! Yes, and they always will, if you ask for Long Island
potatoes. I don’t take any one’s word for food. The only safeguard is
to know your market for yourself and ask no information of the
dealer.”

“Then you think there are no honest dealers?” asked Mr. Gregory.

“Lots of them,” replied his brisk hostess, “but we women put a

premium on misinformation and trickery by demanding what the
market does not offer. We demand fresh country eggs when only the
dealers in certified eggs can furnish them, and so we get cold
storage eggs labeled ‘country,’ We demand Long Island potatoes
when the market is sold out, and we get Maine potatoes at a slightly
higher figure than they should bring, because the dealer does not
dare tell us the truth. If he does, we go to another dealer who
knows us better.”
“In Boston,” remarked Mrs. Gregory, “we have a little marketing club
and study prices and market conditions. It takes time, but it saves us
all quite a little.”

Mrs. Larry ate mechanically, hardly knowing what was served. This
was what the lecturer had meant about studying food values—what
Larry had meant by finding a new market. But both of them had
missed the mark. She would combine the two, study the old markets
and find new ones.

Mrs. Moore was warming up to the topic and everybody was

interested. “New York is headquarters for the National Housewives’
League. We have district branches and leaders, and we are shaking
up the dealers just beautifully. Last week our district leader
announced that there had been a drop in bacon and ham. One of
the nationally advertised brands of bacon in jars was selling at
several cents less a jar. I asked my grocer why he had not reduced
the price. He said this was the first he’d heard of it. The next day he
started a sale on this particular brand, and I bought a dozen jars. He
knew all the time that the firm had cut the price, that ham and
bacon were down, but he did not give his customers, who did not
know the same thing, the advantage of the wholesale cut. Other
grocers gave it and announced it as a special or leader.

“That’s why I belong to the National Housewives’ League. Grocers

and butchers may argue with an individual woman who has read
about food prices in the papers, but when a committee bears down
upon them, they listen respectfully and admit the truth about
prices.”

“Then you believe that the old ogre H. C. of L., otherwise known as
the High Cost of Living, can be reduced by an organization of
housewives who agitate for lower prices?” inquired Mr. Gregory.

“I believe in education first, and organization afterward. An

organization of women who do not know food values or market
conditions will start a sensational campaign against cold storage
eggs or poultry, and then subside. What we need under existing
food conditions is women educated as buyers, not as cooks. It’s no
use to economize in the kitchen and waste in the market.”

Mrs. Larry glanced round the table. Even the bachelor brother was
listening intently. Of course—she had heard rumors of his attentions
to that pretty Murray girl. As for Claire Pierce, her face bore the
expression of one who sat at the feet of wisdom and understood.

“What does it avail a woman to have thirty-five recipes for utilizing

the remains of a roast, if she does not know how to buy a roast in
the beginning? Our grandmothers, yes, and even our mothers, used
to devise means of making what was grown on the farm go as far as
possible. To-day, our men folks grow nothing. We women in the
cities and the towns and the villages must go out and buy so wisely
that we rival in this new housekeeping the frugality of our ancestors.
It’s all in the buying.”

Mrs. Larry, nibbling a salted almond, thought of her own burning

zeal in using up left-overs, and almost sighed. No doubt Teresa
Moore and the lecturer were both right. It was all in the buying. And
her patient industry in the kitchen had probably been undone and
set at naught by the trickery of grocer or butcher. She had been
paying the old price for bacon and ham. She had been paying the
price of Long Island potatoes for the Maine brand. She—

Goodness gracious! Larry had gone to South Bethlehem to find a

better market—and she had only to turn the corner.

Again she glanced round the table, her eye resting now on Teresa
Moore’s new bonbon dish, which she had bought at a mid-summer
sale, and at Mrs. Gregory’s fresh, straight-from-the-shop black
chiffon. Of course they could have new things. They had found the
right market, through organization and education. She wanted to
laugh aloud, did Mrs. Larry. She wanted to go right out and send a
telegram about that new envelope marked—no, not “Larry,” but “A
little pleasure as we go along.”

However, as the conversation had drifted from food values to a new

play, she pulled herself together and chatted with the rest. But as
she parted with her hostess a few hours later, she said:

“Teresa, give me the address of the Housewives’ League.”

“Going to join, honey?” asked Mrs. Moore.

“Yes,—I’m starting on an adventure—in thrift.”

“I’ll go with you,” laughed Teresa. “Meet me at the headquarters of

the Housewives’ League, 25 West Forty-fifth Street, Monday
morning. We’re having a demonstration of meat cuts—by a butcher.”

“I’ll be there,” replied Mrs. Larry promptly.

She did not go alone. Claire had insisted on accompanying her.

“So long as Teresa doesn’t know about—about—Jimmy’s going away

as he did, we won’t have to tell her. And—and—even if I never did
marry and, of course, I wouldn’t marry any one but Jimmy—I might
want to do work among the poor and this would help me.”

Mrs. Larry nodded her head. She was wise enough not to insinuate
that welfare work would never supplant love for Jimmy in Claire’s
heart. The all-important thing just now was to act as if nothing had
happened between the two young people.

“I love to have you with me, Claire. Perhaps I’m a little stale in the
domestic light. Your fresh view-point will help me amazingly.”

Stepping from the elevator they found themselves in a huge

undecorated auditorium covering an entire floor of a great office
building. Just ahead was a desk, where they registered in the
National League, paying ten cents each and receiving in return a
small button, with a navy blue rim and lettering on a white ground,
“Housewives’ League.”

“Wear this whenever you market,” said the secretary. “It commands
respect.”

Beyond the desk was a space given over to desks, tables and
bookcases filled with free bulletins and literature on food values and
food preparations, easy chairs and settees.

Teresa Moore came bustling forward to greet them.

“This,” she explained, “is the first club-room ever opened exclusively
for housekeepers. Here may come any housekeeper, member of the
League or not, New Yorker or suburbanite, to read our bulletins and
magazines, to rest, to write notes on League stationery, to meet
friends. We want to educate home-makers to the club idea, to put
housekeeping on a club basis.

“Way over there in the corner is the desk of our national president,
Mrs. Julian Heath. Across the room is the gas demonstration,
cooking, ironing, etc. And now we must hurry if we are to see the
meat demonstration.”

One side of the great auditorium was filled with camp chairs and
groups of interested eager women. On a platform, a force of
butchers and helpers were hanging up a great side of fresh beef.
Near the platform were two blocks on which the meat could be cut
into pieces.

“Now, ladies, this is the fore-quarter—”

 “The price for this cut today is—”

A great hustling for seats and advantageous positions, whipping out

of note-books and pencils, then respectful silence.

Deftly one helper cut and sawed while the butcher held up cut after
cut and explained their food values and their prices. Invariably he
said: “The price for this cut to-day is—” showing the variability of the
market.

Mrs. Larry listened almost breathlessly, glancing now and then at the
oblong diagram of a side of beef furnished by Mr. Richard Webber,
the dealer who had arranged the demonstration. The different
sections of the beef were colored like states on a map.

“This, ladies, is the chuck steak at sixteen cents a pound.”

Mrs. Larry looked at it with disapproving eyes. That would not do for
Larry. He must have the best and most nutritious beef.

“Just as tender if properly cooked and just as nourishing as sirloin,”

announced the butcher. “But it lacks a certain flavor which both
sirloin and porterhouse have.”

He was handling more familiar cuts now.

“First and second ribs, twenty-four cents a pound because they are
most in demand. But I consider the second cut, third, fourth and
fifth ribs just as good at twenty-two cents a pound. The seventh and
eighth ribs, known as the blade, have a fine flavor and are more
economical at eighteen cents. Use the bones and blade for soup—
and have the rest rolled and skewered.”

Mrs. Larry nibbled her pencil and frowned. A difference of six cents a
pound between the first cut and the last—and she had never asked
her butcher which rib it was. Last Sunday’s roast had cost twenty-six
cents a pound, and she had not known whether that was the right
price on beef or not.

“Here is what I call one of the most economical cuts—if you can get
your butcher to make it for you. Some do not handle it. It’s the ninth
and tenth ribs, boned, known as the inside and outside roll roast,
tender as porterhouse steak, solid meat, no waste, at twenty-five
cents a pound. Five pounds of this are equal in nutritive and cash
value to eight pounds of the usual rib roast.”

Mrs. Larry’s pencil fairly flew.

“Here is the most economical cut for a large family. The cross rib at
twenty-one cents a pound. Average weight fourteen pounds. But be
sure you get the best grade of beef if you try this cut. If it weighs
less than fourteen pounds, you are getting poor quality of beef. Note
the fat, creamy yellow, not a bit of dead white.

“Now, have your butcher cut off two steaks first—Saturday night’s
dinner! The next piece makes a fine pot roast for Sunday and
Monday, and the balance a big pot of soup stock. From the pot roast
you will have some cold meat for hash.”

“Suppose you want just those two juicy steaks,” suggested a well-
dressed woman near the platform.

“Well, see that the butcher cuts them off the right end,” readily
replied the butcher.

“But,” exclaimed Claire, as the result of watching her mother’s

household management, “suppose you order by telephone—”

The butcher and his helper looked at each other and grinned. As one
voice, the other women cried, “Oh, don’t do it!”

“Never buy meat by telephone,” emphasized Mrs. Heath, the

national president, “go to market—it pays.”

Claire was blushing furiously. Of course, everybody would guess that

she was unmarried and inexperienced. In reality, her question was
already forgotten. The audience was absorbed in watching the
butcher carving the hind quarter of the beef.

“You ladies scorn the flank,” he explained, as he held up a long thin

cut of beef, “but the inside cut, with a pocket to be filled with poultry
dressing, makes a fine pot roast. And now for the steaks,—”

Delmonico, porterhouse, sirloin and round—he explained their points

clearly, and then a young bride brought up the question:
“What is minute steak?”

“You’ll have to ask the chef,” replied the butcher, nodding to a stout
mustached man on the edge of the crowd. “We thought you might
ask questions like this, so we brought him along.”

“Minute steak,” explained the chef, “is any good cut, without bone,
sliced very thin. It gets its name from the short time required to
cook it.”

Zip, the saw, knives and hatchet gleamed in and out of the red flesh,
and the pages of Mrs. Larry’s note-book bristled with facts and
figures. When the demonstration was over, she snapped a rubber
band around the little book, thrust it into her bag and walked
thoughtfully to the elevator.

“Did you enjoy it, honey?” Teresa Moore linked arms with Mrs. Larry
and rang for the elevator.

“Well, if there’s any enjoyment in learning how little you know, I

must have had a perfectly splendid time!” replied Mrs. Larry, not
without slight sarcasm.

“Fine! I felt the same way—once. Now go a-marketing while it is all

fresh in your mind. Put the fear of God in the heart of your butcher.
You won’t have to do it but once, I venture to assure you.”

“I will,” said Mrs. Larry firmly, as they parted at the corner. Then
suddenly she stopped and stared in dismay at an unoffending,
overtrimmed pincushion in a shop window. Memory turned a blur of
red beef, white bone and creamy yellow fat.

“I don’t believe I’ll ever recognize those different cuts when I see
them.”

“I will,” said Claire Pierce firmly. “I mean to have a talk with our
butcher, too. No doubt father has paid him thousands of dollars, and
now he can pay back some of the overcharge by teaching me how
to buy meat properly. Let’s go into that shop; I want to buy a note-
book like yours.”

“Well,” said Mrs. Larry thoughtfully, as they waited for Claire’s parcel
and change, “they do say that meat is cheaper in Kansas City than in
New York.”
 CHAPTER III
“There’s always a reason for high prices, and it’s well worth finding
out.” —H. C. OF L. PROVERB NO. 3.

M R. LARRY, settling his stalwart shoulders into his overcoat,

stopped and looked down with a smile at the pink-tipped
finger peeping through the buttonhole in his left-hand lapel. He had
come to recognize certain wifely signs. Mrs. Larry’s finger attached
to this particular buttonhole indicated that Mrs. Larry’s gray matter
was twisting itself into an interrogation point.

“Well?” he prompted.

“Um-m!” she murmured; then, with sudden accession of courage:

“Larry, when you went to South Bethlehem looking for a new
foundry to buy castings, what did the old man say?”

“The old man?” echoed Mr. Larry.

“Yes, the man where you had been buying them before. Didn’t he
want you to keep right on buying from him? Didn’t he say anything?”

“Did he? Why, as soon as he heard we were dickering with new

people, he had half a dozen of his best men camping on our trail,
cutting prices. That’s the game—play one concern against the other.”

“Thank you, dear,” murmured Mrs. Larry, with a far-away look in her
eye.

Mr. Larry caught the pink-tipped finger as it slipped from the

mooring in his buttonhole.
“What’s up, sweetheart? Been hearing a lecture on ‘Every Wife Her
Husband’s Partner’? Going into business?”

“That’s just it, Larry, I am your partner, and I ought to make a

business of it.”

Mr. Larry drew her close, looking a trifle anxious.

“I don’t want you any different. I love you just as you are.”

“Yes, but you might love me better——”

“I couldn’t.”

“Yes, you could—if I were a better manager. Larry, we eat too much.
I mean, I don’t market efficiently.”

Her husband groaned.

“I don’t want an efficient wife, the kind that counts her steps and
moves, and has charts and signs hanging all over the house.”

“I’m not going to do any of those things; but I do want to buy for
our home as closely as you buy for your firm. I’m afraid that Mr.
Dahlgren, my butcher, is overcharging me. I’ve bought meat there,
and vegetables and fruit ever since we moved into this apartment;
we’ve paid him hundreds and hundreds of dollars, and—well, I think
I ought to talk to him.”

Mr. Larry kissed the pink finger-tip, and several more, before he
answered.

“Before you make any statements about his overcharging, you must
know the prices elsewhere.”

“Oh, I do,” and she held up a sheet of paper covered with figures,
some newspaper clippings and a Housewives’ Marketing Guide of the
current week. “I got these at the Housewives’ League meeting.”
The clock in the living-room struck the half hour and Mr. Larry
reached for his hat.

“That’s right—you hand it to the old boy, straight—and tell me about

it to-night.”

When the door had closed on Mr. Larry, his wife tripped to the
telephone and called up Claire.

“I’m going to have it out with my butcher,” she announced very

firmly. “If you’ve remembered anything that I’ve forgotten, now’s
your chance to help me.”

“I’ll be over in half an hour,” answered Claire briskly. “Mother wants

me to answer some invitations for her, and then I’ll be free for the
morning. It’s dear of you to take me on your adventures. By-by.”

Mrs. Larry stood looking at the now silent telephone. Certainly Claire
was taking the thing splendidly. If only Jimmy knew what was going
on! Yes, decidedly, Jimmy ought to know. Having settled this matter
to her satisfaction, Mrs. Larry proceeded to act with characteristic
promptness. She took her pen in hand—

“Dear Jimmy:

“Clearing out a drawer this morning, I came upon the program of

the Monday Night Dance. Didn’t we have a wonderful time? If you
are as good a lawyer as you are a dancer, you’ll be famous before
long.

“So sorry you did not have dinner with us before you left. You must
never treat us that way again.
“Can’t write any more, because I am going over to my butcher’s to
take my second lesson in reducing the high cost of living. Claire is
going with me. Of course, she’ll write and tell you all about our
adventures in thrift. I suppose we’ll have some wild experiences. But
when you really, truly love a man, you don’t mind what you go
through for him. Not even if this means stalking that ogre, ‘High
Prices,’ to its darkest lair.”

She sealed and stamped the envelope with an affectionate little pat.

“It’s just as well not to take any chances on some catty Kansas City
girl discovering that Jimmy’s heart has had a wound that she might
heal. I’ve heard a lot of strange things about the way a man’s heart
acts on the rebound.”

Nevertheless, she was very careful not to allow Claire to see the
address on the letter, which she mailed in the first box they passed.

When Mrs. Larry, armed with market quotations, entered the

Dahlgren market, with its glittering marble slabs, its white-coated
cutters, and its generally up-to-the-minute air, she felt a sudden
sinking in the region of her heart. “Jud,” the rosy-cheeked, bright-
eyed cutter, who always took her order, came forward, book in hand.

“What is it this morning?”

“A roast of beef——”

“Two ribs or three?” he suggested, already writing the order.

“I think I’d like to see it.”

“Certainly. Bill, let me have that prime rib, rolled. No, the other cut.”
A helper produced a roast, beautifully rolled, all crimson flesh,
flecked with rich, creamy-white fat. Jud tossed it on the scales, and
in a flash had it off again.

“Not quite eight pounds—two dollars and thirty-two cents. Can’t be

beat for slicing down cold. Anything else?” he added. “We have an
unusually fine pair of sweetbreads to-day. Some chops for lunch?”

Mrs. Larry was doing mental arithmetic. Claire had been using her
pencil. “Two-thirty-two—That’s thirty cents a pound.”

“What cut is that?” Mrs. Larry asked, with a fine assumption of

firmness and indicating the rolled roast, which Jud had tossed into
the basket, as if the sale were made.

“That?” echoed the wondering cutter. “That’s a Delmonico roast—

fancy.”

“Haven’t you—haven’t you a third or fourth rib roast, something

cheaper than this?”

“Well, of course, I can give you any cut you want,” said the amazed
attendant, accustomed to filling unqualified telephone orders. “But
I’d advise you to take this—no waste.”

Mrs. Larry looked up from her quotations.

“The second cut is only twenty-one cents a pound, to-day. I’ll take
that.”

“Certainly,” acquiesced Jud; “but you won’t find much saving in that
piece, what with bones and tailings.” He had flung another roast,
unrolled, on the scales. “Seven pounds—one dollar and sixty cents.
Mebbe you’d rather have three ribs than two?”

Again Claire’s pencil moved to the rhythm of figures.

“If it’s twenty-one cents a pound, it ought to be only one dollar and
forty-seven cents.”

“This cut is twenty-three cents a pound.”

“But the market quotations say twenty-one cents,” murmured Mrs.

Larry.

Jud’s good-humored face clouded. Here was an experience

practically unheard of in the Dahlgren market, and plainly beyond his
jurisdiction.

“I guess you’d better talk to the boss.”

Mr. Dahlgren stepped forward solicitously.

“Nothing wrong, I hope?”

Mrs. Larry felt her color rising. The few women in the market, like
herself, were well-groomed, well-tailored. They turned and stared at
her and Claire. Price-haggling in a shop of this class suddenly
seemed cheap and common. And yet she was determined to put into
practise the lessons in meat buying she had learned at the Monday
morning meeting of the Housewives’ League.

“I don’t quite understand why this cut, the third and fourth ribs, is
twenty-three cents a pound when the Housewives’ League price says
twenty-one cents,” she explained, proffering Mr. Dahlgren the printed
sheet.

The butcher’s shrewd experienced glance swept the line of

quotations.

“Ah—hem—yes, I see. U’m—Quite so. Twenty-one cents to twenty-

three. That’s right. Twenty-three cents—and that’s what we’re
charging you.”
“But,” murmured Mrs. Larry, trying to look severe, “why do you
charge me the top price instead of the bottom one? I am a regular
customer. I pay my bill weekly, which is as good as cash, my
husband says.” Being launched, she felt quite courageous. Surely
this was the way Larry would talk to competing firms!

“I have been marketing here for three years and have paid you
hundreds of dollars.”

“I appreciate all that,” said Mr. Dahlgren good-naturedly, “and I want

to hold your trade; but we do not carry the twenty-one-cent grade.
See?”

Decidedly Mrs. Larry did not “see,” and her puzzled face betrayed
the fact.

“The difference between twenty-three cents and twenty-one cents

does not represent the whim of the butcher, Mrs. Hall, but the grade
of the beef sold, and I might say, also the expenses of store
management—what your husband would call overhead expenses.
This particular roast, cut from the Argentine beef mentioned in your
Marketing Guide, could be sold by some butchers at twenty-one
cents a pound, because the Argentine beef wholesales at ten to ten
and a half a pound. But I handle only fancy, native, stall-fed beef,
which wholesales from fourteen and a half to fifteen and a half cents
per pound. Our prices here are regulated by what I pay, which is
always top notch for selected meats, and by the expense of running
the shop. Cleanliness, modern equipment, highly paid clerks, good
telephone and delivery service all come high. Then, of course, in a
shop like this heavy accounts are carried——”

“Oh—then I pay not only for the meat I buy, but must make up your
losses from charge customers who do not pay. I really gain nothing
by paying my bill weekly.”

A great light illuminated Mrs. Larry’s marketing vision. Mr. Dahlgren

looked uncomfortable.
“Oh, I wouldn’t say that, Mrs. Hall; but the sort of custom I have,
what we call A-1 charge trade, demands the best——”

“It can,” asserted Mrs. Larry significantly, “if it does not pay.”

“I can’t offer you seconds in meat, poultry or vegetables. Now, take

this lettuce——”

He picked out a head of choice lettuce and pulled the leaves apart.

“See? Not a withered leaf, not a single leaf you could not serve on
your table. Fifteen cents. Well, you can go to the dago stand round
the corner and buy lettuce for eight or ten cents. My lettuce you
have charged and delivered in clean baskets, by clean, respectful
delivery boys, and you’ll have enough for two salads. The Italian
sells you lettuce that is withered on the outside from long standing
in his hot cellar, or small heads from which all the outside leaves are
stripped. You pay cash, the lettuce is dusty, it is delivered by a dirty
little ragamuffin who ought to be in school, and you get one salad as
against two from the head bought here.

“Same way with those meat quotations. I went down to hear that
lecture. I sort of felt some of my customers would be there. The
man who gave what you called your meat demonstration is one of
the biggest dealers in this city. He wholesales as well as retails. He
does not carry a single retail charge account. He would not give
credit to a woman who had traded with him ten years. Every sale is
a cash transaction—no waiting, no chance of loss. Of course, he can
undersell a man like me. I don’t pretend to compete with him. You
can go to his market—across town—or you can order by telephone
or postal card, and he will give you good meat, not fancy grades like
I carry for my exclusive trade, but good meat, and you will save
money. His rent is less than mine and he pays smaller wages. I am
not knocking his meat; but I will say that if you take his roast at
twenty-one cents a pound and mine at twenty-three cents a pound,
and treat them exactly the same way, you’ll be able to tell the
difference. It’s in the flavor and the tenderness and the juiciness,
and of the twenty-one-cent roast Mr. Hall will probably say: ‘Roast a
little dry and flat to-night, isn’t it?’”

“Then this Marketing Guide is really no guide at all?” sighed Mrs.

Larry, suddenly recalling that she had meant to clean the baby’s
white coat this morning, and here she was spending precious
minutes unlearning what she thought she had learned so well.

“Oh, yes, it is—if you know how to use it. Take this one item alone.
‘The market is flooded with Florida oranges and grapefruit.’ That’s
your chance to lay in a supply of both fruits while the wholesale
prices are down. ‘Cranberry shipments are heavy and market
glutted.’ That’s true, too. Cranberries have sold a few weeks back for
twelve cents a quart. I am selling now for nine. It would pay you to
make up some jelly and set it aside, or, if you have a cool place, you
can keep the raw berries just as well as we can. Just now the
manufacturers of —— bacon are cutting prices—they are
overloaded. I can save you three cents a jar if you want to buy a
quantity and stock up. Next week it may be back to the old price.”

“And these prices change all the time, like this? Why haven’t you told
me such things before?”

“Well,” said the butcher, trying hard not to smile, “you never asked
me. You usually order by phone, and—”

“You can send me the roast—the second cut at twenty-three cents—

five quarts of cranberries and a dozen jars of bacon,” said Mrs. Larry
out loud. Inwardly she calculated: “Fifteen cents saved on
cranberries, thirty-six on bacon. Every penny cut off what it might
have been, saves just a little bit more.”

Safely back on the sunlit street, Mrs. Larry and Claire glanced at
each other. The faces of both were a trifle flushed.
“I’ve had more agreeable experiences,” commented Mrs. Larry, with
a wry smile.

“I don’t care what happens,” said Claire, looking straight ahead, “I’m
going to win out in this game. It means everything to me.”

Whereat Mrs. Larry felt an inward glow. She hadn’t made any
mistake in writing to Jimmy Graves.

“If you feel that way about it, I’ll telephone you my plans every day.”

“Do,” said Claire, as she hurried away.

Frequently, when Mrs. Larry discoursed on the happenings of the

day to her husband, she felt that Mr. Larry was not so deeply
interested in domestic problems as a carefully chosen father might
be. But on the memorable evening after her discovery that the same
cut of beef might sell for twenty-one or twenty-three cents a pound,
and for a very sufficient and convincing reason Mr. Larry gave her
remarks flattering attention.

After he had studied the Marketing Guide and gone over Mrs. Larry’s
figures, he drew her down into the great chair that had been built
for two and which faced the sputtery gas log.

“Tell you, little woman, you are all right! I supposed it cost just so
much to keep up our table, and there was no use fighting the high
cost of living, but I believe you are on the right track. Finding the
cause of high prices is the way to begin.”

“And, Larry, one cause of our high prices is the neighborhood in

which we live.”

“Well, we’re not going to move out of it. I won’t raise my children in
an undesirable neighborhood just to save two cents a pound on
meat.”
“I have an idea!” remarked Mrs. Larry, snuggling closer in the arm
that seemed always waiting for her. “If the cheap markets can’t
come to our neighborhood because of the high rents, I’m going to
them. All of them deliver. The man who talked to the League said
so; I don’t suppose the East Side butchers would come over here
more than once a day.”

“And his system of delivery at all hours is one of Mr. Dahlgren’s

heavy overhead expenses, remember.”

“And you’re not to complain, understand, if sometimes there is a

shortage in tenderness or juiciness of roasts.”

“I’ll be the best little victim of your experiments in thrift that ever
was,” said Mr. Larry assuringly.

“Oh, Larry, that’s the very idea! Every day will brings its adventure in
thrift. I’ll have my next trip in the morning.”

“Why don’t you start with the open market?” suggested Mr. Larry.

“I thought they were just for the poor.”

“They are run by the city for the people—and we are the people,
aren’t we?”

“Well, not just people—when you have the darlingest and most
understandingest of husbands—”

“And the most calculating and parsimonious of wives.”

“Now you’re making fun of me. But I’ll try the city market to-
morrow. There’s one at the end of the Broadway car line.”

“Yes; at the old Fort Lee Ferry. You ought to catch some New Jersey
farmers there, with fresh butter and eggs.”
At ten the next morning Mrs. Larry and Claire started for the
people’s market. This was Mrs. Larry’s usual time for marketing.

At ten-thirty they sprang from the car, near the dull, redding-brown
ferry house, and looked around for the market with the true country
atmosphere. Near the recreation pier were scattered a few wagons
that suggested the hucksters who sometimes dared to invade the
sacred precincts of her exclusive neighborhood, with heaps of over-
ripe pineapples and under-ripe apples. Here and there were push
carts, such as Mrs. Larry had seen that day when she had
“slummed” through the great East Side in search of a wedding gift in
old Russian brass. A few rickety stands completed the background,
and these were heaped with sad-looking poultry, tubs of butter, and
crates of eggs, bearing striking black and white signs that
announced big cuts in prices.

Hucksters, peddlers and sharp-featured tradesmen greeted them

with strident price quotations. But Mrs. Larry’s glance sought in vain
for the kindly farmer and his wife, the sort she could suddenly recall
as handing her bits of home-made cake, pot cheese or a tiny
nosegay of garden flowers in the days when she had gone to early
market with her grandmother in a quiet Pennsylvania city.

A neatly dressed man, with a semi-official air, who had evidently

noticed their bewilderment, raised his hat and spoke courteously:

“Is there anything special you want?”

“No; nothing special—we thought we’d like to see one of the city
markets.”

“Well, you’re a little late to see the market at its best. I’ll explain, if
you don’t mind. I’m on Borough President Marks’ committee and we
are very anxious to interest New York housekeepers in these
markets.”
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