Result Update

Institutional Research
India I Consumer
08 May, 2025

Kalyan Jewellers BUY

Price: Rs512
Strong wedding demand lifts SSSG to 21% Target Price: Rs664
Forecast return: 30%
Kalyan’s consolidated Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 36.3%/30.4%/36.4% YoY, led by wedding Market Data
demand. Despite volatility in gold prices, sustained revenue momentum in Q4FY25 was led Bloomberg: KALYANKJ IN
by: (1) robust footfalls given the strong wedding demand (2) 35% new customer addition 52 week H/L: 795/336
(3) 38% growth in India business (4) India SSSG: 21% YoY (North/South at 23%/20%) (5) 48% Market cap: Rs528.5bn
growth in Non-south vs 29% in South and (6) 48% growth/studded share at 31.1%. The
Shares Outstanding: 1031.4mn
management stated that strong growth would continue led by: (1) wedding demand (2)
Free float: 33.5%
enhanced store expansion (Kalyan -90; majorly FOCO & Candere -80 and majorly COCO) and
(3) calibrated international expansion. The Middle East business (36 stores) grew 26% YoY Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 1,01,64,790
Source: Bloomberg
while Candere clocked Rs280mn revenue. Higher share of FOCO (~40% saliency) impacted
Gross margin/EBITDA margin, which came in at 13.8%/6.5%. Higher FOCO store share (~55% Changes in the report
by FY27) would help operating leverage (lower debt/interest & depreciation), which will Rating: Unchanged
help lift PBT growth higher than revenue. We have tweaked our estimate and have Target price: Rs664; from Rs675
maintained BUY, with a P/E-based target price of Rs664 (P/E of 47.0x FY27E EPS). FY26E:Rs10.5; up 3.3%
EPS:
Strong performance led by 38% revenue growth in India business with 21% SSSG FY27E:Rs14.1; down 1.2%
Source: Centrum Broking
Kalyan’s Q4FY25 consolidated revenue stood at Rs61.8bn, up by 36.3% YoY. Despite volatility
in gold prices, revenue momentum was led by: (1) robust footfalls given the strong wedding Shareholding pattern
demand (2) 35% new customer addition (3) 38% YoY growth in India business (4) India SSSG: Mar-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Jun-24
21% YoY (North/South at 23%/20%) (5) 48% YoY growth in Non-south vs 29% in South and (6) Promoter 62.9 62.9 62.9 60.6
48% YoY growth/studded share at 31.1%. The management stated that strong growth would FIIs 16.9 16.4 15.7 21.2
continue, led by: (1) wedding & festive demand (2) enhanced store expansion (Kalyan -90; DIIs 12.0 13.6 13.7 11.8
majorly FOCO & Candere -80; majorly COCO) and (3) calibrated international expansion. Public/other 8.2 7.1 7.7 6.4
Higher FOCO store share (~55% by FY27) would help operating leverage (lower debt/interest Source: BSE
& depreciation), which will help lift PBT growth higher than revenue. We expect topline to Centrum estimates vs Actual results
clock 30% CAGR over FY25-FY27E. YE Mar Centrum Actual Variance
Operating leverage to expand PBT margin; Gross/EBITDA margin would decline (Rs mn) Q4FY25 Q4FY25 (%)
Gross margin fell to 13.8% (-80bps) on account of higher gold prices and FOCO saliency. Given Revenue 62,129 61,815 (0.5)
the higher employee cost/other expenses (+14.0%/+26.0%), EBITDA margin slipped to 6.5% EBITDA 3,417 3,994 16.9
(-29bps). In Q4, GML loans decreased as interest rate rose to 5% from 3.5%, which would EBITDA margin % 5.5 6.5 96bps
increase gradually. Despite the rising number of FOCO stores, the management intends to Adj. PAT 1,657 1,876 13.2
improve profitability using: (1) reducing interest cost burden (2) cutting debt by Rs3-4bn on Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Non-GML loans and (3) converting few owned stores under FOCO model. The management
expects PBT margin to reach 5%+ for FY26, led by lower opex and interest/depreciation cost.
Valuation driven by potential earnings upside
We reckon that Kalyan’s strategy revolves around adding FOCO stores in non-south markets
and calibrated expansion in the Middle East/USA regions gaining momentum. The company
demonstrated that its strategy of opening stores in non-south markets helped it to improve
studded ratio. With focus on offline stores under Candere, serving millennials to meet their
aspirational demand (by introducing new designs), we are optimistic about the FOCO
opportunity. Going forward, we expect 50bps/40bps impact in Gross margin/EBITDA margin
while PBT margin would expand by 80bps over FY25-27E. Further, reduced Non-GML share
and higher FOCO share may help it to improve profitability. We have tweaked our earnings
and have maintained BUY, with a P/E -based target of Rs664 (P/E 47x FY27E EPS). Risks:
Irrational competition and prolonged recovery in the economy.
Financial and valuation summary
YE Mar (Rs mn) 4QFY25A 4QFY24A YoY (%) 3QFY25A QoQ (%) FY25A FY26E FY27E
Revenues 61,815 45,349 36.3 72,869 (15.2) 2,50,451 3,28,313 4,25,937
EBITDA 3,994 3,063 30.4 4,388 (9.0) 15,172 19,469 24,193
EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 6.8 (4.3) 6.0 7.3 6.1 5.9 5.7
Adj. Net profit 1,876 1,376 36.4 2,187 (14.2) 7,142 10,863 14,567
Adj. EPS (Rs) 1.8 1.3 36.2 2.1 (14.2) 6.9 10.5 14.1
EPS growth (%) 19.6 52.1 34.1
PE (x) 72.6 47.8 35.6
Consumer

EV/EBITDA (x) 29.3 23.0 18.6

PBV (x) 10.8 9.1 7.6 Soham Samanta
RoE (%) 15.9 20.7 23.3 Research Analyst, Consumer
+91-022-4215 9855
RoCE (%) 12.6 15.5 17.5 [email protected]
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Kalyan Jewellers 08 May, 2025

Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revision Valuation
FY26E FY26E FY27E FY27E We reckon that Kalyan’s strategy revolves around adding FOCO stores in
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg % chg
New Old New Old non-south markets and calibrated expansion in the Middle East/USA
Revenue 3,28,313 3,24,854 1.1 4,25,936 4,16,662 2.2 region gaining momentum. It has demonstrated that its strategy of
EBITDA 19,469 17,802 9.4 24,193 21,583 12.1 opening stores in non-south markets has helped it to improve studded
EBITDA margin % 43bps 48bps ratio. With focus on offline stores under Candere, serving millennials to
5.9 5.5 5.7 5.2
meet their aspirational demand (by introducing new designs), we are
Adj. PAT 10,863 10,539 3.1 14,567 14,708 (1.0) optimistic about the FOCO opportunity. Going forward, we expect
Diluted EPS (Rs) 10.5 10.2 3.3 14.1 14.3 (1.2) 50bps/40bps impact in Gross margin/EBITDA margin while PBT margin
Source: Centrum Broking would expand by 80bps over FY25-27E. Further, reduced Non GML share
and higher FOCO share may help it to improve profitability. We have
Kalyan Jewellers versus NIFTY midcap 100 tweaked our earnings and have maintained BUY, with a P/E -based target
1m 6m 1 year of Rs664 (P/E 47x FY27E EPS). Risks: Irrational competition and a
prolonged recovery in the economy.
KALYANKI IN 4.1 (26.2) 30.3
NIFTY midcap 100 7.4 (5.5) 8.4 Valuation Rs/share
Source: Bloomberg, NSE P/E based target price (Rs) 664
EPS 14.1
Key assumptions P/E 47
YE Mar FY26E FY27E
No of own stores in India 121 117 P/E mean and standard deviation
Franchised stores in India 248 328 100
No of stores in Middle East 42 48 80
Source: Centrum Broking
60
40
20
0
Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Nov-22

Nov-23

Jul-24

Nov-24
Jul-22

Jul-23

May-24
May-22

Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23

Jan-24
Mar-24

Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
P/E Mean
+1 S.D. -1 S.D.
Mean + 2 Std Dev

EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation

52
42
32
22
12
2
Nov-22

Nov-23

Nov-24
Jul-22

Jul-23

Jul-24
Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
May-22

May-23

May-24

May-25
Jan-23
Mar-23

Jan-24
Mar-24

Jan-25
Mar-25

EV/EBITDA Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Mean + 2 Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 2

Kalyan Jewellers 08 May, 2025

P&L Balance sheet

YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E
Revenues 1,40,714 1,85,483 2,50,451 3,28,313 4,25,937 Equity share capital 10,301 10,301 10,314 10,314 10,314
Operating Expense 1,18,722 1,58,346 2,17,608 2,85,862 3,72,141 Reserves & surplus 26,047 31,590 37,721 46,412 58,065
Employee cost 4,406 6,064 7,386 8,864 11,287 Shareholders fund 36,347 41,891 48,036 56,726 68,380
Others 6,446 7,947 10,284 14,117 18,315 Minority Interest (2) (13) 0 0 0
EBITDA 11,140 13,127 15,172 19,469 24,193 Total debt 35,085 33,173 32,933 34,620 36,839
Depreciation & Amortisation 2,446 2,743 3,427 3,133 2,876 Non Current Liabilities 7,869 11,691 16,660 12,342 14,342
EBIT 8,694 10,384 11,745 16,336 21,318 Def tax liab. (net) 0 0 0 0 0
Interest expenses 3,026 3,232 3,595 3,378 3,573 Total liabilities 79,300 86,741 97,629 1,03,689 1,19,561
Other income 379 737 1,446 1,526 1,678 Gross block 27,053 34,625 43,979 41,679 44,648
PBT 6,048 7,888 9,596 14,484 19,423 Less: acc. Depreciation (8,686) (12,296) (16,590) (19,723) (22,599)
Taxes 1,396 1,925 2,454 3,621 4,856 Net block 18,367 22,329 27,389 21,956 22,049
Effective tax rate (%) 23.1 24.4 25.6 25.0 25.0 Capital WIP 200 485 485 485 485
PAT 4,652 5,963 7,142 10,863 14,567 Net fixed assets 18,622 22,868 27,928 22,495 22,588
Minority/Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Non Current Assets 2,154 4,475 7,375 2,874 2,997
Recurring PAT 4,652 5,963 7,142 10,863 14,567 Investments 1,194 1,345 1,963 3,426 8,490
Extraordinary items (333) 0 0 0 0 Inventories 70,139 82,976 96,811 1,12,436 1,28,364
Reported PAT 4,319 5,963 7,142 10,863 14,567 Sundry debtors 2,442 3,283 3,999 4,767 6,185
Cash & Cash Equivalents 9,819 9,751 10,311 9,188 7,946
Ratios Loans & advances 629 827 1,702 1,849 305
YE Mar FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E
Other current assets 2,129 2,653 1,170 1,287 1,416
Growth (%) Trade payables 11,927 19,441 23,503 25,062 28,548
Revenue 30.1 31.8 35.0 31.1 29.7 Other current liab. 15,396 21,352 29,270 29,169 29,875
EBITDA 36.8 17.8 15.6 28.3 24.3
Provisions 507 643 857 493 493
Adj. EPS 107.6 28.2 19.6 52.1 34.1
Net current assets 57,329 58,054 60,363 74,804 85,301
Margins (%) Total assets 79,300 86,741 97,630 1,03,689 1,19,561
Gross 15.6 14.6 13.1 12.9 12.6
EBITDA 7.9 7.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 Cashflow
EBIT 6.2 5.6 4.7 5.0 5.0 YE Mar (Rs mn) FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E
Adjusted PAT 3.1 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.4 Profit Before Tax 4,319 5,963 7,142 14,484 19,423
Returns (%) Depreciation & Amortisation 2,446 2,743 3,427 3,133 2,876
ROE 13.7 15.2 15.9 20.7 23.3 Net Interest 2,647 2,495 2,848 1,852 1,895
ROCE 10.2 11.5 12.6 15.5 17.5 Net Change – WC 424 2,040 (1,708) (4,676) (7,949)
ROIC 11.4 12.6 13.2 16.6 19.1 Direct taxes (1,290) (2,262) (2,379) (3,621) (4,856)
Turnover (days) Net cash from operations 10,134 13,227 12,094 9,000 8,476
Gross block turnover ratio (x) 5.2 5.4 5.7 7.9 9.5 Capital expenditure (1,863) (2,609) (4,028) (2,766) (2,320)
Debtors 5 6 5 5 5 Acquisitions, net 0 0 0 0 0
Inventory 197 176 151 134 118 Investments (2,183) 420 1,279 (1,115) (5,188)
Creditors 28 36 36 31 26 Others 206 810 984 1,526 1,364
Net working capital 149 114 88 83 73 Net cash from investing (3,839) (1,379) (1,765) (2,355) (6,144)
Solvency (x) FCF 6,295 11,848 7,819 6,233 6,155
Net debt-equity 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 Issue of share capital 0 0 0 0 0
Interest coverage ratio 3.7 4.1 4.2 5.8 6.8 Increase/(decrease) in debt (2,146) (5,909) (1,263) (3,000) (2,000)
Net debt/EBITDA 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 Dividend paid 0 (515) (1,512) 0 0
Per share (Rs) Interest paid (2,291) (2,389) (2,234) (3,378) (3,573)
Adjusted EPS 4.5 5.8 6.9 10.5 14.1 Others (1,939) (2,668) (3,394) (3,192) 2,000
BVPS 35.3 40.7 46.6 55.0 66.3 Net cash from financing (6,376) (11,480) (8,402) (9,569) (3,573)
CEPS 6.9 8.5 10.2 13.6 16.9 Net change in Cash (81) 368 1,927 (2,925) (1,242)
DPS 0.0 (0.5) (1.5) 0.0 0.0 Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Dividend payout (%) 0.0 (8.6) (21.2) 0.0 0.0
Valuation (x)
P/E 111.4 86.9 72.6 47.8 35.6
P/BV 14.3 12.4 10.8 9.1 7.6
EV/EBITDA 40.2 33.9 29.3 23.0 18.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) 0.0 0.0
Source: Company, Centrum Broking

Centrum Institutional Research 3

Kalyan Jewellers 08 May, 2025

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Centrum Institutional Research 4

Kalyan Jewellers 08 May, 2025

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Kalyan Jeweller

Source: Bloomberg

Centrum Institutional Research 5

Kalyan Jewellers 08 May, 2025

Disclosure of Interest Statement

1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.

3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)

Kalyan Jewellers

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No
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research report
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Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
12 No
in the past twelve months;
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13 No
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Website: www.centrumbroking.com
Investor Grievance Email ID: [email protected]

Compliance Officer Details:

Chintan Madiya
(022) 4215 9000/9815; Email ID: [email protected]

Centrum Broking Ltd. (CIN :U67120MH1994PLC078125)

Registered and Corporate Office:
Level -9, Centrum House, C.S.T. Road,
Vidyanagari Marg, Kalina,
Santacruz (East) Mumbai – 400098
Tel.: - +91 22 4215 9000

Centrum Institutional Research 6