DCF Valuation
Sheet index
# Worksheet
1 1.Input -->
2 P&L assumptions
3 BS assumptions
4 2.Output -->
5 P&L
6 BS
7 Cash Flow
8 DCF valuation
P&L source
2018 2019 2020
USD in thousands Act Act Act
Revenue from sales and services 177,203 188,618 208,366
Other revenue 3,520 2,416 2,585
Revenue 180,723 191,034 210,951
Raw materials (139,903) (138,923) (150,080)
Direct costs (2,491) (11,649) (7,443)
Cost for services (16,390) (17,878) (22,293)
Lease costs (291) (246) (121)
Other operating expenses (1,331) (1,123) (1,453)
EBITDA 20,317 21,214 29,561
D&A (2,908) (4,650) (6,431)
EBIT 17,410 16,564 23,130
Financial income/expenses (1,266) (2,191) (2,664)
Extraordinary income (318) (864) (320)
EBT 15,826 13,509 20,146
Taxes (3,806) (3,050) (3,815)
Net Income 12,020 10,459 16,331
BS source
31Dec18 31Dec19 31Dec20 31Dec18 31Dec19
USD in thousands Act Act Act USD in thousands Act Act
Intangible assets 5,962 5,840 5,650 Share Capital 6,785 6,800
PP&E 45,106 49,072 56,109 Reserves 46,224 44,414
Financial assets 8,824 9,831 10,323 Retained earnings 16,394 25,994
Profit/(loss) for the year 12,020 10,459
Fixed assets 59,892 64,743 72,082 Total Equity 81,422 87,667
Inventory 31,167 36,397 46,212 Trade payable 15,891 26,352
Trade receivables 32,884 38,556 43,582 Other liabilities 5,315 4,334
Other assets 8,842 11,359 17,603 Deferred taxes 479 1,218
Provisions for retirement benefits 175 248
Cash and equivalents 11,791 19,409 8,174
Non fixed assets 84,684 105,721 115,570 Bank borrowings 37,403 45,595
Other Financial liabilities 3,890 5,051
Total Liabilities 63,153 82,797
Total Assets 144,576 170,464 187,652 Total Liabilities & Equity 144,576 170,464
31Dec20
Act
7,508
46,513
21,516
16,331
91,868
36,190
6,473
1,760
240
50,680
440
95,784
187,652
P&L assumptions
Scenarios:
Case 1: Optimistic case
Case 2: Base case
Selected case 2 Case 3: Worst case
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenues 177,203 188,618 208,366 225,035 243,038 262,481 283,480
y-o-y growth% 6.4% 10.5% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Case 1: 10% 10% 10% 10%
Case 2: 8% 8% 8% 8%
Case 3: 6% 6% 6% 6%
Other revenues 3,520 2,416 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,585
y-o-y growth % 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cost of goods sold (142,394) (150,572) (157,523) (175,528) (189,570) (204,735) (221,114)
% of revenues -80% -80% -76% -78% -78% -78% -78%
Case 1 -76% -76% -76% -76%
Case 2 -78% -78% -78% -78%
Case 3 -80% -80% -80% -80%
Operating expenses (18,011) (19,248) (23,867) (24,754) (26,734) (28,873) (31,183)
Case 2 -10% -10% -11% -11% -11% -11% -11%
Case 1 -10% -10% -10% -10%
Case 2 -11% -11% -11% -11%
Case 3 -12% -12% -12% -12%
D&A (2,908) (4,650) (6,431) (6,751) (7,291) (7,874) (8,504)
% of revenues -2% -2% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3%
Case 1 -2% -2% -2% -2%
Case 2 -3% -3% -3% -3%
Case 3 -4% -4% -4% -4%
Interest expense (1,266) (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
y-o-y growth % 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0% 0%
Extraordinary income (318) (864) (320) - - - -
y-o-y growth % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taxes (3,806) (3,050) (3,815)
% of EBT -24% -23% -19% -20% -20% -20% -20%
Case 1 -18% -18% -18% -18%
Case 2 -20% -20% -20% -20%
Case 3 -22% -22% -22% -22%
FY25
Forecast
306,158
8%
10%
8%
6%
2,585
0%
0%
0%
0%
(238,803)
-78%
-76%
-78%
-80%
(33,677)
-11%
-10%
-11%
-12%
(9,185)
-3%
-2%
-3%
-4%
(2,664)
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-20%
-18%
-20%
-22%
BS assumptions
31Dec18 31Dec19 31Dec20 31Dec21 31Dec22 31Dec23 31Dec24 31Dec25
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Trade receivable 32,884 38,556 43,582
Days receivable 66.4 73.7 75.4
Inventory 31,167 36,397 46,212
Days Inventory 79.9 88.2 107.1
Trade payable 15,891 26,352 36,190
Days payable 40.7 63.9 83.9
PP&E 45,106 49,072 56,109
as a % of revenue 25.5% 26.0% 26.9%
Other assets 8,842 11,359 17,603
as a % of revenue 5.0% 6.0% 8.4%
Other liabilities 5,969 5,800 8,473
as a % of revenue 3.4% 3.1% 4.1%
dso=average accounts receivable/total creadit sales *365
P&L
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenues
Other revenues
Total revenues
Cost of goods sold
Gross margin
Operating expenses
EBITDA
D&A
EBIT
Interest expense
Extraordinary income
EBT
Tax rate
Taxes - - - - - -
Net income - - - - - - - - -
Balance Sheet
31Dec18 31Dec19 31Dec20 31Dec21 31Dec22 31Dec23 31Dec24 31Dec25
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Intangible assets
PP&E
Financial assets
Inventory
Trade receivable
Other assets
Cash and equivalents
Total Assets - - - - - - - -
Trade payable
Other liabilities
Financial liabilities
Shareholders' equity
Total Liabilities & Equities - - - ### - - - - -
Check - - - - - - - -
Note
Flat
Flat
Flat
Cash Flow
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
$ in thousands Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
EBIT - -
Operating taxes - -
Operating tax rate 0% 0%
NOPAT - - - -
Add-back D&A - -
Gross Cash Flow - - - -
Inventory - -
Trade receivables - -
Trade payables - -
Investments in working capital - - - -
Investments in other assets/liabilities - -
Capex - -
Other investments - -
Extraordinary items - -
UFCF - - - -
Interest expenses - - -
Delta Taxes vs. Operating taxes - - -
Delta Financial liabilities - - -
Delta Equity (incl. dividends) - - -
Net Cash Flow - - - -
Opening cash - - - -
Closing cash - - - -
Check - - - -
FY23 FY24 FY25
Forecast Forecast Forecast
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
DCF Valuation
WACC 10%
g 2%
FY18 FY19 FY20 1.0
FY21 2.0
FY22 3.0
FY23 4.0
FY24 5.0
FY25
$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
UFCF - - -
Discount factor
Present value of UFCF - - - - -
DCF Valuation
PV of Cash flows -
Continuing value -
PV of Continuing value -
Enterprise value -
() Financial liabilities -
WACC
Cash -
Equity value - - 9% 10% 11% 12%
1%
g 2%
3%
4%
