NEODyS
(and
AstDyS
and
Priority
List)
Data
Provision
Fabrizio
Bernardi
CEO
of
SpaceDyS
What
is
NEODyS
• NEODyS
is
a
web
based
service
and
stands
for
Near
Earth
Objects
Dynamic
Site:
h@p://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys
• NEODyS
provides
informaDon
on
the
IMPACT
PROBABILITY
of
Near
Earth
Objects
(NEOs),
typically
for
an
horizon
of
100
years
• The
most
important
output
is
the
Risk
Page:
h@p://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys2/index.php?pc=4.0
where
a
list
of
NEOs
(459
on
Nov
17th)
with
some
chances
of
hiRng
the
Earth
within
the
next
century
is
posted
for
the
public
• Only
JPL@NASA
provides
a
similar
service
with
SENTRY
• NEODyS
team
has
a
technological
leadership
in
Europe
(and
world)
NEODyS
background
• NEODyS
was
born
in
1999
at
the
Dep.
of
MathemaDcs
of
the
University
of
Pisa
(Italy),
within
the
CelesDal
Mechanics
Group
(CMG)
lead
by
Prof.
Andrea
Milani
• The
main
moDvaDon
was
the
absence
of
a
rigorous
and
systemaDc
method
for
compuDng
on
a
daily
basis
the
probability
that
an
asteroid
is
hiRng
the
Earth
• The
1997XF11
case
was
a
PR
disaster,
just
for
the
lack
of
a
well
established
system
to
perform
such
computaDons
NEODyS
daily
acDviDes
• Since
1999
NEODyS
is
processing
astrometric
data
of
Near
Earth
Objects
(NEOs)
provided
by
the
Minor
Planet
Center,
the
official
enDty
supported
by
the
InternaDonal
Astronomical
Union
(IAU)
that
manages
all
the
asteroids
observaDons
and
the
official
catalog
of
asteroids
• The
data
are
sent
to
NEODyS
either
by
email
or
via
web,
through
the
Minor
Planet
Electronic
Circulars
(MPECs)
• MPECs:
– DOU
à
Daily
Orbit
Update:
new
observaDons
(and
orbits)
of
already
known
NEOs
– Discovery
MPEC
à
CerDfies
the
discovery
of
a
new
NEO
– Recovery
MPEC
à
When
a
single
opposiDon
NEO
is
reobserved
at
a
following
appariDon
NEODyS
daily
acDviDes
MPC
Obs
&
orbits
NEODyS
Risk
Page
observaDons
Observers
World
What
NEODyS
actually
does
• When
the
NEODyS
system
receive
new
data
from
MPC,
they
will
be
processed
by
the
so`ware
robot
called
CLOMON2
• CLOMON2
is
based
on
the
libraries
of
the
OrbFit
(ver.4.2)
so`ware
package
developed
and
maintained
by
UniPi
and
SpaceDyS,
wri@en
in
Fortran
90
• CLOMON2
has
a
very
high
level
of
automaDon.
When
new
data
are
available,
it
automaDcally
starts
to
process
them
• When
the
CLOMON2
output
(the
risk
file)
is
ready,
a
qualified
operator
checks
the
output
and
posts
it
to
the
web
CLOMON2
processes
chart
• Generate
a
sample
of
Virtual
Neomult
Asteroids
along
the
Line
of
VariaDons
Cateph
• Propagates
for
100
y
• Performs
the
Resret
returns
analysis
NEODyS
output
example
–
Risk
File
Impact
Probability
Time
of
Event
NEODyS
output
example
–
Risk
List
NEODyS
Services
• Risk
Page
and
Impactor
Tables
• Orbits
DB,
with
covariance
matrices
for
all
NEOs
(11621
on
Nov
17th)
in
Keplerian
and
Equinoctal
parameters
• ObservaDons
DB
(1.3
millions
of
obs)
• Ephemerides
and
observaDon
predicDon
for
observers
• List
of
close
approaches
• Proper
elements
• List
of
observatories
• ScienDfic
ExperDse
and
Consultancy
AstDyS
• AstDyS
stands
for
Asteroids
Dynamic
Site
• It
has
the
same
NEODyS
interface,
with
some
differences
• AstDyS
is
a
database
of
all
numbered
and
mulD-‐opposiDon
asteroids
(on
Nov
17th
it
counts
415688
numbered
asteroids
and
114888
mulD-‐opposiDon
asteroids
• AstDyS
manages
(Nov
17th)
108
millions
of
observaDons
of
numbered
objects
and
more
than
9
millions
of
observaDons
of
mulD-‐opposiDon
objects
• AstDyS
is
updated
on
a
monthly
basis
according
to
MPC
data
release
for
all
asteroids
AstDyS
Services
• Risk
Page
and
Impactor
Tables
• Orbits
DB,
with
covariance
matrices
for
all
numbered
and
mulD
opposiDon
asteroids
in
Keplerian
and
Equinoctal
parameters
• ObservaDons
data
• Ephemerides
and
observaDon
predicDon
for
observers
• List
of
close
approaches
• Proper
elements
and
families
• List
of
observatories
and
performance
staDsDcs
• ScienDfic
ExperDse
and
Consultancy
AstDyS
web
page
Priority
List
• The
Priority
List
classifies
the
need
to
observe
NEOs
• The
protocol
is
based
on
the
algorithm
implemented
in
the
acDviDes
of
the
Spaceguard
Central
Node
(SCN,
a
facility
of
the
Spaceguard
FoundaDon,
established
with
the
support
of
ESA)
• The
PL
inventors
were
Andrea
BoaRni,
Germano
D’Abramo,
Andrea
Carusi
and
Giovanni
B.
Valsecchi
• The
objecDve
of
the
so`ware
is
to
improve
the
efficiency
of
astrometric
follow-‐up
observaUons
of
NEOs
for
the
accurate
determinaDon
of
their
orbits.
• The
priority
list
reports
a
list
of
NEAs
classified
into
four
categories:
urgent,
necessary,
useful
and
low
priority
Priority
List
at
the
NEOCC
• The
Priority
list
so`ware
has
been
moved
to
the
ESA
NEO
CoordinaDon
Centre
in
2012
and
it
is
currently
under
the
maintenance
of
SpaceDyS
• It
is
automaDcally
updated
on
a
daily
basis
using
data
coming
from
the
NEODyS
database.
• The
NEOCC
FDOs
perform
maintenance
procedures
two
Dmes
a
month.
• Currently,
the
NEO
Web
portal
reports
the
objects
in
need
of
observaDons
through
two
lists:
a
priority
list
and
a
faint
NEO
list:
– The
first
one
contains
NEAs
brighter
than
V
magnitude
22.0
and
at
least
40
degrees
of
solar
elongaDon,
– The
second
one
reports
objects
with
highest
magnitudes.
• The
PL
supports
the
observaDons
taken
with
ESA
OGS
telescope
Priority
List
at
the
NEOCC
SpaceDyS
and
SSA-‐NEO
acDviDes
• SpaceDyS
–
Space
Dynamics
Services,
is
a
spin-‐off
of
the
team
of
Andrea
Milani,
of
the
Dep.
Of
MathemaDcs
of
the
University
of
Pisa
• Since
its
birth,
on
May
2011,
SpaceDyS
has
been
deeply
involved
in
many
SSA
acDviDes,
specifically
for
the
NEO
and
SST
segments
(SN-‐III,
SN-‐V,
CO-‐II,
P2-‐NEO-‐I,
P2-‐SST-‐IV)
• SpaceDyS
major
experDse
is
obviously
the
NEO
dynamics,
but
in
general
it
is
developing
advanced
tools
for
the
orbit
determinaDon
problem
applied
for
Solar
System
objects
and
objects
orbiDng
around
the
Earth
SpaceDyS
and
SSA-‐NEO
acDviDes
• SpaceDyS
is
now
managing,
maintaining
and
developing
all
the
acDviDes
related
to
NEODyS,
AstDyS
and
PL
• The
two
presently
Front
Desk
Operators
at
the
NEOCC
are
both
SpaceDyS
employees
• At
SpaceDyS
HQ
there
are
three
employees
fully
devoted
to
the
SSA
NEO
acDviDes
• ScienDfic
consultancy
from
the
senior
SpaceDyS
partners
who
are
among
the
worldwide
experts
for
this
ma@er
Service
Level
Agreements
with
ESA
• Since
SpaceDyS
birth
in
2011
Service
Level
Agreements
with
ESA
were
in
place
for
the
following
ESA
needs:
– Provide
to
the
ESA-‐SSA
precursor
services
at
the
NEOCC
the
NEODyS
data
(orbits
with
covariance
matrices,
the
Risk
List
and
Impactor
Tables,
the
list
of
close
approaches,
NEOs
ephemerides
of
the
Orbit
VisualizaDon
Tool,...
– Provide
to
the
ESA-‐SSA
precursor
services
at
the
NEOCC
the
AstDyS
data
(orbits,
proper
elements,…)
– Maintain
the
Priority
List
at
the
NEOCC
– ScienDfic
consultancy
to
ESA
staff
and
general
users
– Support
for
the
precursor
services
acDviDes
SLA
-‐
Timeline
• SLA-‐1:
01
Sep
2011
à
31
Mar
2012
(only
NEODyS)
• SLA-‐2:
01
Apr
2012
à
30
Jun
2013
• SLA-‐3:
01
Jul
2013
à
30
Jun
2014
– CCN-‐1:
01
Jul
2014
à
30
Jun
2015
– CCN-‐2:
01
Jul
2015
à
30
Jun
2016
SpaceDyS
team
for
SSA-‐NEO
PISA
@SpaceDyS
SpaceDyS
NEODyS
scienUsts
HQ
consultants
F.
Bernardi
A.
Milani
F.
Spoto
G.
B.
Valsecchi
A.
Chessa
Z.
Knezevic
AstDyS
G.
Gronchi
G.
Tommei
NEOCC
-‐
ESRIN
FDOs
M.
Micheli
Priority
List
B.
Borgia
Provision
of
data
to
the
NEOCC
system
Share
Directory
wget
AstDyS
Orbits,
close
encounters…
NEOCC
@ESRIN
NEODyS
On-‐the-‐fly
Priority
List
Risk
files
Reliability
of
the
service
• SpaceDyS
is
commi@ed
to
provide
the
service
to
ESA
24/7/365
• Occasionally,
during
the
SLAs
period,
there
were
some
downDmes
due
to
– Maintenance
of
the
systems
(O.S.
upgrade,
network
maintenance…),
which
was
necessary
– Planned
power
outages,
for
electricity
network
maintenance
– Unplanned
and
sudden
power
outages
or
internet
failures
• When
possible,
ESA
was
informed
as
well
as
the
asteroid
observers
community
• Out
of
services
lasted
only
few
hours
and
SpaceDyS
personnel
was
always
available,
even
during
week-‐ends
and
holidays
• Automated
systems
alert
through
email
the
SpaceDyS
operators
when
the
services
are
experiencing
troubles
…maintaining
the
leadership
• The
NEO-‐SpaceDyS
team
is
commi@ed
to
conDnue
the
research
acDvity
in
the
NEO
dynamics
science:
– IntroducDon
of
non-‐grav.
Parameters
(Yarkovsky,
rad.
Press.,…)
– Improved
error
models
– Improved
dynamical
models
– Imminent
Impactors
computaDon:
a
new
system
that
computes
the
IP
a`er
processing
data
which
are
sDll
in
the
NEO
ConfirmaDon
Page
• New
and
improved
services:
– Graphic
representaDon
of
the
LOV
behavior
for
100
y
and
for
all
the
NEOs
on
the
Risk
Page
– Asteroids
families
computaDon
and
graphic
representaDon
• Publishing
papers,
parDcipaDng
to
internaDonal
conferences,
training
young
personnel
The
future
• The
ESA
Work
Plan
2014
foresees
that
the
NEODyS
and
AstDyS
services
will
migrate
to
the
NEOCC
• The
“MigraUon”
process
will
last
three
years
and
will
include
all
the
Orbit
DeterminaDon
and
Impact
Monitoring
acDviDes
• Training
of
personnel
is
foreseen
• SpaceDyS
will
take
the
lead
and
responsibility
for
this
acDvity
• SpaceDyS
will
ensure
the
maintenance
of
the
ESA
system
for
the
OD
and
IM
funcDons
for
the
following
years
Conclusions
• SpaceDyS
has
a
well
established
leadership
in
the
NEO
business
• SpaceDyS
is
providing
conDnuously
the
data
to
ESA-‐NEOCC
• Fast
reacDon
in
case
of
failures
• Prompt
answer
to
ESA
or
general
user
requests
for
consultancy
• Support
for
the
NEOCC
precursor
services
development
• ConDnuous
research
and
developments
• The
main
goal
is
the
MigraUon
of
the
services
to
ESA
