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The document is a resource for the second edition of 'An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making' by David R. Anderson and others, which covers various quantitative methods for effective decision-making in management. It includes topics such as linear programming, sensitivity analysis, project scheduling, and inventory models, along with practical applications and case studies. The text is available for download in multiple formats through a specified link.

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David R. Anderson l Dennis J. Sweeney
Thomas A. Williams l Mik Wisniewski

AN INTRODUCTION TO
MANAGEMENT
SCIENCE
QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES
TO DECISION MAKING
second edition

Australia • Brazil • Japan • Korea • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States
Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s). Editorial review has
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This is an electronic version of the print textbook. Due to electronic rights restrictions, some third party content may be suppressed. Editorial
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Printed by Croatia By Zrinsky d.d.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 – 16 15 14

About the Authors xi

Preface xiii
Acknowledgements xv

1 Introduction 1
2 An Introduction to Linear Programming 33
3 Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Interpretation of Solution 85
4 Linear Programming Applications 137
5 Linear Programming: The Simplex Method 211
6 Simplex-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Duality 254
7 Transportation, Assignment and Transshipment Problems 279
8 Network Models 344
9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM 370
10 Inventory Models 405
11 Queuing Models 451
12 Simulation 489
13 Decision Analysis 539
14 Multicriteria Decisions 593

Conclusion: Management Science in Practice 635

Appendices 639
Appendix A Areas for the Standard Normal Distribution 641
Appendix B Values of e l 642
Appendix C Bibliography and References 643
Appendix D Self-Test Solutions 645
Glossary 677
Index 683

ONLINE CONTENTS

15 Integer Linear Programming

16 Forecasting
17 Dynamic Programming
18 Markov Processes

iii

About the Authors xi Simulation 21

Preface xiii Decision Analysis 21
Acknowledgements xv Multicriteria analysis 21
Integer Linear Programming 21
Forecasting 21
1 Introduction 1 Dynamic Programming 22
Markov Process Models 22
1.1 Introduction to Management Science 2
Summary 22
Does it Work? 2
Worked Example 22
1.2 Where Did MS Come From? 4 Problems 24
1.3 Management Science Applications 5 Case Problem Uhuru Craft Cooperative, Tanzania 27
Assignment 5 Appendix 1.1 Using Excel for Breakeven Analysis 27
Data Mining 5 Appendix 1.2 The Management Scientist Software 30
Financial Decision Making 6
Forecasting 6 2 An Introduction to Linear
Logistics 6
Marketing 6 Programming 33
Networks 6 2.1 A Maximization Problem 35
Optimization 7 Problem Formulation 36
Project Planning and Management 7 Mathematical Statement of the GulfGolf
Queuing 7 Problem 39
Simulation 7
2.2 Graphical Solution Procedure 40
Transportation 8
A Note on Graphing Lines 48
1.4 The MS Approach 8 Summary of the Graphical Solution Procedure for
Problem Recognition 9 Maximization Problems 50
Problem Structuring and Definition 9 Slack Variables 51
Modelling and Analysis 10
2.3 Extreme Points and the Optimal Solution 53
Solutions and Recommendations 11
Implementation 11 2.4 Computer Solution of the GulfGolf Problem 54
Interpretation of Computer Output 55
1.5 Models 12
2.5 A Minimization Problem 57
1.6 Models of Cost, Revenue and Profit 15
Summary of the Graphical Solution Procedure for
Cost and Volume Models 15
Minimization Problems 58
Revenue and Volume Models 16
Surplus Variables 59
Profit and Volume Models 17
Computer Solution of the M&D Chemicals
Breakeven Analysis 17
Problem 61
1.7 The Modelling Process 18
2.6 Special Cases 62
1.8 Management Science Models and Alternative Optimal Solutions 62
Techniques 20 Infeasibility 63
Linear Programming 20 Unbounded Problems 64
Transportation and Assignment 20
2.7 General Linear Programming Notation 66
Network Models 20
Project Management 20 Summary 67
Inventory Models 21 Worked Example 68
Queuing Models 21 Problems 71

Case Problem 1 Workload Balancing 76 4.5 Financial Applications 168

Case Problem 2 Production Strategy 77 Portfolio Selection 170
Case Problem 3 Blending 78 Financial Planning 174
Appendix 2.1 Solving Linear Programmes With Excel 79 Revenue Management 178
Appendix 2.2 Solving Linear Programmes With the 4.6 Data Envelopment Analysis 182
Management Scientist 82
Summary 190
Problems 191
3 Linear Programming: Sensitivity Case Problem 1 Planning an Advertising
Analysis and Interpretation of Campaign 200
Case Problem 2 Phoenix Computer 202
Solution 85 Case Problem 3 Textile Mill Scheduling 202
3.1 Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis 86 Case Problem 4 Workforce Scheduling 204
3.2 Graphical Sensitivity Analysis 88 Case Problem 5 Cinergy Coal Allocation 205
Objective Function Coefficients 88 Appendix 4.1 Excel Solution of Hewlitt Corporation
Right-Hand Sides 93 Financial Planning Problem 207

3.3 Sensitivity Analysis: Computer Solution 97

Interpretation of Computer Output 97
Simultaneous Changes 99 5 Linear Programming: The
Interpretation of Computer Output – A Second Simplex Method 211
Example 101
5.1 An Algebraic Overview of the Simplex
Cautionary Note on the Interpretation of Dual
Method 212
Prices 104
Algebraic Properties of the Simplex
3.4 More than Two Decision Variables 105 Method 213
The Modified GulfGolf Problem 106 Determining a Basic Solution 213
The Kenya Cattle Company Problem 109 Basic Feasible Solution 214
Formulation of the KCC Problem 111
5.2 Tableau Form 216
Computer Solution and Interpretation for the KCC
Problem 112 5.3 Setting Up the Initial Simplex
Tableau 217
3.5 The Taiwan Electronic Communications (TEC)
Problem 115 5.4 Improving the Solution 218
Problem Formulation 116 5.5 Calculating the Next Tableau 222
Computer Solution and Interpretation 117 Interpreting the Results of an Iteration 224
Summary 121 Moving Toward a Better Solution 225
Worked Example 121 Interpreting the Optimal Solution 228
Problems 123 Summary of the Simplex Method 228
Case Problem 1 Product Mix 134 5.6 Tableau Form: The General Case 230
Case Problem 2 Investment Strategy 135 Greater-Than-or-Equal-to Constraints (‡) 230
Case Problem 3 Truck Leasing Strategy 136 Equality Constraints 234
Eliminating Negative Right-Hand Side
4 Linear Programming Values 235
Summary of the Steps to Create Tableau
Applications 137 Form 236
4.1 The Process of Problem Formulation 138 5.7 Solving a Minimization Problem 237
4.2 Production Management Applications 140 5.8 Special Cases 239
Make-or-Buy Decisions 140 Infeasibility 239
Production Scheduling 143 Unbounded Problems 240
Workforce Assignment 150 Alternative Optimal Solutions 242
4.3 Blending, Diet and Feed-Mix Problems 156 Degeneracy 243
4.4 Marketing and Media Applications 163 Summary 244
Media Selection 163 Worked Example 245
Marketing Research 166 Problems 248

6 Simplex-Based Sensitivity Case Problem 1 Distribution System Design 336

Appendix 7.1 Excel Solution of Transportation,
Analysis and Duality 254 Assignment and Transshipment Problems 338
6.1 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex
Tableau 255
Objective Function Coefficients 255 8 Network Models 344
Right-Hand Side Values 258 8.1 Shortest-Route Problem 345
Simultaneous Changes 265 A Shortest-Route Algorithm 346
6.2 Duality 266 8.2 Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 354
Interpretation of the Dual Variables 268 A Minimal Spanning Tree Algorithm 355
Using the Dual to Identify the Primal Solution 270
8.3 Maximal Flow Problem 357
Finding the Dual of Any Primal Problem 270
Summary 362
Summary 272
Worked Example 362
Worked Example 273
Problems 363
Problems 274
Case Problem Ambulance Routing 368

7 Transportation, Assignment 9 Project Scheduling:

and Transshipment Problems 279 PERT/CPM 370
7.1 Transportation Problem: A Network Model and 9.1 Project Scheduling With Known Activity
a Linear Programming Formulation 280 Times 372
Problem Variations 283 The Concept of a Critical Path 373
A General Linear Programming Model of the Determining the Critical Path 374
Transportation Problem 285 Contributions of PERT/CPM 378
7.2 Transportation Simplex Method: A Special- Summary of the PERT/CPM Critical Path
Purpose Solution Procedure 286 Procedure 379
Phase I: Finding an Initial Feasible Solution 288 Gantt Charts 380
Phase II: Iterating to the Optimal Solution 291 9.2 Project Scheduling With Uncertain Activity
Summary of the Transportation Simplex Times 381
Method 300 The Daugherty Porta-Vac Project 382
Problem Variations 302 Uncertain Activity Times 382
7.3 Assignment Problem: The Network Model and The Critical Path 385
a Linear Programming Formulation 303 Variability in Project Completion Time 386
Problem Variations 305 9.3 Considering Time–Cost Trade-Offs 388
A General Linear Programming Model of the Crashing Activity Times 389
Assignment Problem 306
Summary 392
Multiple Assignments 307
Worked Example 392
7.4 Assignment Problem: A Special-Purpose Problems 394
Solution Procedure 307 Case Problem R.C. Coleman 401
Finding the Minimum Number of Lines 311 Appendix 9.1 Activity on Arrow Networks 402
Problem Variations 311
7.5 Transshipment Problem: The Network Model
and a Linear Programming Formulation 314 10 Inventory Models 405
Problem Variations 319 10.1 Principles of Inventory Management 406
A General Linear Programming Model of the The Role of Inventory 406
Transshipment Problem 320 Inventory Costs 407
7.6 A Production and Inventory Application 320 10.2 Economic Order Quantity
Summary 324 (EOQ) Model 408
Worked Example 325 The How-Much-to-Order Decision 411
Problems 327 The When-to-Order Decision 413

Sensitivity Analysis for the EOQ Model 414 11.4 Some General Relationships for Queuing
Excel Solution of the EOQ Model 415 Models 466
Summary of the EOQ Model Assumptions 415 11.5 Economic Analysis of Queues 468
10.3 Economic Production Lot Size Model 416 11.6 Other Queuing Models 470
Total Cost Model 418
11.7 Single-Channel Queuing Model with
Economic Production Lot Size 420
Poisson Arrivals and Arbitrary Service
10.4 Inventory Model with Planned Shortages 421 Times 471
10.5 Quantity Discounts for the EOQ Model 425 Operating Characteristics for the M/G/1
10.6 Single-Period Inventory Model with Model 471
Probabilistic Demand 427 Constant Service Times 472
Juliano Shoe Company 428 11.8 Multiple-Channel Model with Poisson
Arabian Car Rental 431 Arrivals, Arbitrary Service Times and No
10.7 Order-Quantity, Reorder Point Model with Queue 473
Probabilistic Demand 433 Operating Characteristics for the M/G/k
The How-Much-to-Order Decision 434 Model with Blocked Customers
The When-to-Order Decision 435 Cleared 473

10.8 Periodic Review Model with Probabilistic 11.9 Queuing Models with Finite Calling
Demand 437 Populations 476
More Complex Periodic Review Models 440 Operating Characteristics for the M/M/1 Model
with a Finite Calling Population 476
Summary 441
Worked Example 442 Summary 479
Problems 443 Worked Example 479
Case Problem 1 Wagner Fabricating Company 447 Problems 481
Case Problem 2 River City Fire Department 448 Case Problem 1 Regional Airlines 486
Appendix 10.1 Development of the Optimal Order Case Problem 2 Office Equipment, Inc 487
Quantity (Q) Formula for the EOQ Model 449
Appendix 10.2 Development of the Optimal Lot Size
(Q*) Formula for the Production Lot Size
12 Simulation 489
Model 450 12.1 Risk Analysis 492
PortaCom Project 492
What-If Analysis 492
11 Queuing Models 451 Simulation 493
11.1 Structure of a Queuing System 452 Simulation of the PortaCom Problem 501
Single-Channel Queue 454 12.2 Inventory Simulation 504
Distribution of Arrivals 454 Simulation of the Butler Inventory
Distribution of Service Times 455 Problem 507
Steady-State Operation 456 12.3 Queuing Simulation 509
11.2 Single-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson Hong Kong Savings Bank ATM Queuing
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times 456 System 510
Operating Characteristics 457 Customer Arrival Times 510
Operating Characteristics for the Dome Customer Service Times 511
Problem 458 Simulation Model 511
Managers’ Use of Queuing Models 458 Simulation of the ATM Problem 515
Improving the Queuing Operation 459 Simulation with Two ATMs 516
Excel Solution of the Queuing Model 461 Simulation Results with Two ATMs 518
11.3 Multiple-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson 12.4 Other Simulation Issues 520
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times 462 Computer Implementation 520
Operating Characteristics 462 Verification and Validation 521
Operating Characteristics for the Dome Advantages and Disadvantages of Using
Problem 464 Simulation 522

Summary 522 14 Multicriteria Decisions 593

Worked Example 522
Problems 525 14.1 Goal Programming: Formulation and
Case Problem 1 Dunes Golf Course 530 Graphical Solution 594
Case Problem 2 Effortless Events 531 Developing the Constraints and the Goal
Appendix 12.1 Simulation with Excel 533 Equations 595
Developing an Objective Function with Preemptive
Priorities 597
Graphical Solution Procedure 598
13 Decision Analysis 539
Goal Programming Model 601
13.1 Problem Formulation 541 14.2 Goal Programming: Solving More Complex
Payoff Tables 542 Problems 602
Decision Trees 542 Suncoast Office Supplies Problem 602
13.2 Decision Making without Probabilities 543 Formulating the Goal Equations 603
Optimistic Approach 543 Formulating the Objective Function 604
Conservative Approach 544 Computer Solution 605
Minimax Regret Approach 545 14.3 Scoring Models 609
13.3 Decision Making with Probabilities 546 14.4 Analytic Hierarchy Process 614
Expected Value of Perfect Information 548 Developing the Hierarchy 615

13.4 Risk Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis 551 14.5 Establishing Priorities Using AHP 615
Pairwise Comparisons 616
Risk Analysis 551
Pairwise Comparison Matrix 617
Sensitivity Analysis 552
Synthesization 619
13.5 Decision Analysis with Sample Consistency 620
Information 556 Other Pairwise Comparisons for the Car Selection
Decision Tree 556 Problem 622
Decision Strategy 558 14.6 Using AHP to Develop an Overall Priority
Risk Profile 562 Ranking 623
Expected Value of Sample Information 564
Summary 625
Efficiency of Sample Information 565
Worked Example 625
13.6 Calculating Branch Probabilities 566 Problems 627
13.7 Utility and Decision Making 568 Case Problem EZ Trailers 633
Appendix 14.1 Scoring Models with Excel 634
The Meaning of Utility 569
Developing Utilities for Payoffs 571 Conclusion: Management Science in Practice 635
Expected Utility Approach 573 Appendices 639
Appendix A Areas for the Standard Normal
Summary 575
Distribution 641
Worked Example 575
Appendix B Values of e l 642
Problems 577
Appendix C Bibliography and References 643
Case Problem 1 Property Purchase Strategy 585 Appendix D Self-Test Solutions 645
Case Problem 2 Lawsuit Defence Strategy 587 Glossary 677
Appendix 13.1 Decision Analysis with Treeplan 587 Index 683

ONLINE CHAPTERS 16.5 Trend and Seasonal Components

Multiplicative Model
Calculating the Seasonal Indexes
15 Integer Linear Programming Deseasonalizing the Time Series
Using Deseasonalized Time Series to Identify
15.1 Types of Integer Linear Programming Models Trend
15.2 Graphical and Computer Solutions for an All- Seasonal Adjustments
Integer Linear Programme Models Based on Monthly Data
Graphical Solution of the LP Relaxation Cyclical Component
Rounding to Obtain an Integer Solution 16.6 Regression Analysis
Graphical Solution of the All-Integer Problem Using Regression Analysis as a Causal
Using the LP Relaxation to Establish Bounds Forecasting Method
Computer Solution Statistical Evaluation of the Regression
Branch and bound solution Equation 747
15.3 Applications Involving 0–1 Variables Capital Regression with Excel 751
Budgeting Extensions to Sample Linear Regression
Fixed Cost 16.7 Qualitative Approaches
Distribution System Design Delphi Method
Planning Location Expert Judgement
15.4 Modelling flexibility provided by 0–1 Integer Scenario Writing
Variables Intuitive Approaches
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Summary
Constraints Worked Example 1
k Out of n Alternatives Constraint Problems
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints Case Problem 1 Forecasting Sales
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales
Summary Appendix 16.1 Using Excel for Forecasting
Worked Example 1
Problems
Case Problem 1 Textbook Publishing
17 Dynamic Programming
Case Problem 2 Yeager National Bank 17.1 A Shortest-Route Problem
Case Problem 3 Buckeye Manufacturing 17.2 Dynamic Programming Notation
Appendix 15.1 Excel Solution of Integer Linear
17.3 The Knapsack Problem
Programmes
17.4 A Production and Inventory Control Problem

16 Forecasting Summary
Worked Example 1
16.1 Components of a Time Series Problems
Trend Component Case Problem Process Design
Cyclical Component
Seasonal Component
Irregular Component 18 Markov Processes
16.2 Smoothing Methods 18.1 Market Share Analysis
16.3 Moving Averages 18.2 Debt Management
Weighted Moving Averages Fundamental Matrix and Associated
Exponential Smoothing Calculations
16.4 Trend Projection Establishing the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts

David R. Anderson
David R. Anderson is Professor of Quantitative Analysis in the College of Business
Administration at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand Forks, North Dakota,
he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University. Professor
Anderson has served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis
and Operations Management and as Associate Dean of the College of Business
Administration.
Professor Anderson has co-authored many textbooks in the areas of statistics,
management science, linear programming and production and operations manage-
ment. He is an active consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.

Dennis J. Sweeney
Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor of Quantitative Analysis and Founder of the Center
for Productivity Improvement at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Des Moines,
lowa, he earned a B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his MBA and DBA
degrees from Indiana University, where he was an NDEA Fellow.
Professor Sweeney has published more than thirty articles and monographs in the
area of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM,
Procter & Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger and Cincinnati Gas &
Electric have funded his research, which has been published in Management Science,
Operations Research, Mathematical Programming, Decision Sciences and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has co-authored many textbooks in the areas of
statistics, management science, linear programming and production and operations
management.

Thomas A. Williams
Thomas A. Williams is Professor of Management Science in the College of Business
at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira, New York, he earned his B.S.
degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Professor Williams is the co-author of many textbooks in the areas of manage-
ment science, statistics, production and operations management and mathematics.
He has been a consultant for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on
projects ranging from the use of data analysis to the development of large-scale
regression models.

Mik Wisniewski
Mik has over 40 years’ management science experience. His teaching at under-
graduate and postgraduate levels focuses on the practical application to manage-
ment decision making. He has taught at many different universities and colleges in
the UK, across Europe, African and the Middle East. He has extensive consul-
tancy experience with clients including Shell, KPMG, PriceWaterhouseCoopers,
xi

Scottish & Newcastle, British Energy and ScottishPower. He has worked with a
large number of government agencies in the UK and globally including health,
housing, police, local and central government and utilities. He has degrees from
Loughborough University and Birmingham University in the UK and is also an
Elected Fellow of the Operational Research Society and an Elected Fellow of the
Royal Statistical Society. He is the author of over a dozen academic texts on
management science, business and analysis and optimization.

W elcome to the second Europe, Middle East and Africa Edition of An Intro-
duction to Management Science by Anderson, Sweeney, Williams and
Wisniewski.
The first edition of this text was based on the best-selling US version and
deliberately set out to adapt and tailor the US version for a non-US university
audience. The content was adapted to better suit university teaching of quantitative
management science in the UK, across Europe, Africa and the Middle East; the
focus was given a more global and international feel and cases and examples were
internationalized.
The first edition has been extremely successful in its target markets and this
edition has further tailored and adapted the content to give broad international
appeal.

A quick tour of the text

An Introduction to Management Science continues to be very much applications
oriented and to use the problem-scenario approach that has proved to be very
popular and successful. This approach means that we describe a typical business
scenario or problem faced by many organizations and managers. This might relate to
allocating staff to tasks or projects; determining production over the next planning
period; deciding on the best use of a limited budget; forecasting sales over the
coming time period and so on. We explore and explain how particular management
science techniques and models can be used to help managers and decision makers
decide what to do in that particular scenario or situation. This approach means that
students not only develop a good technical understanding of a particular technique
or model but also understand how it contributes to the decision-making process.
In this new edition we have taken advantage of the Internet and world-wide web
to make some chapters available online. The chapters that remain in the textbook
itself cover the topics most commonly-covered on undergraduate and postgraduate
management science programmes. Chapters available online cover topics which,
although useful and important, are less frequently included.
Chapter 1 provides an overall introduction to the text; the origins and develop-
ments in management science are outlined; there are detailed examples of areas in
business and management where management science is frequently applied; there is
a detailed discussion of the wider management science methodology and a section
on the modelling process itself.
Chapters 2–6 cover the core topic of Linear Programming (LP). The technique is
introduced and graphical solution methods developed. This is followed by the
development of sensitivity analysis. The Simplex method is then introduced for large
scale problem solution and full coverage of simplex based sensitivity is covered.
There is a full chapter on applications of LP grouped around five main areas of
business application.
Chapter 7 extends the coverage of optimization to look at techniques related to
transshipment, assignment and transportation problems. Solution methods for each
class of problem are given. Chapter 8 introduces the network model and examines
the shortest route problem, the minimal spanning tree problem and the maximal flow

xiii

problem. Chapter 9 introduces project scheduling and project management problems.

There is full coverage of PERT/CPM and a short section explaining the use of Gantt
charts in project management and expands the section on crashing a project. There
is also an appendix discussing activity on arrow networks in some detail.
Chapters 10 and 11 look at two common types of business model. Chapter 10
looks at inventory (or stock control) models whilst Chapter 11 looks at queuing
models. The relevance of both types of model to business decision making is
examined and solution techniques developed. Chapter 12 introduces simulation
modelling and shows how such models can be used alongside the other models
developed in the text.
Chapters 13 and 14 look at the area of decision analysis and decision making.
Chapter 13 looks at the principles of decision analysis and introduces decision trees,
expected value and utility. Chapter 14 looks at the topic of multicriteria decision
making with coverage of goal programming, scoring models and the analytic hier-
archy process (AHP) approach.
The textbook closes with discussion of management science in practice, consid-
ering some of the practical issues faced when implementing management science
techniques for real.
In addition there are four slightly more specialized chapters available on the
accompanying online platform. These take exactly the same format and structure as
chapters included in the text.
Chapter 15 introduces integral linear programming both as an extension to linear
programming and as a model in its own right. The chapter looks at the branch and
bound solution method in detail. Chapter 16 looks at business forecasting techniques
and models. Time series models are introduced as well as trend projection models
and there is coverage of regression modelling also. Chapter 17 looks at the topic of
dynamic programming with coverage of the shortest route problem and the knapsack
problem. Finally, Chapter 18 introduces Markov models which can be useful where
we wish to examine behaviour or performance over successive periods of time.
The online platform contains an array of additional resources to aid learning. See
the ‘Digital Resources’ page for further details.

T he publishers and author team would like to thank the following academics for
their helpful advice in contributing to the development research underpinning
both the first and second Europe, Middle East and Africa Editions of An Introduc-
tion to Management Science and reviewing draft chapter material:

Husain A. Al-Omani GTSC (Saudi Arabia)

Phil Ansell Newcastle University (UK)
Julia Bennell University of Southampton (UK)
James M. Freeman University of Manchester (UK)
Paul Hudson Queen’s University Belfast (UK)
Yuan Ju University of York (UK)
Cesarettin Koc Dubai Women’s College (Dubai)
Petroula Mavrikiou Frederick University (Cyprus)
Gilberto Montibeller London School of Economics (UK)
Max Moullin Sheffield Hallam University (UK)
David Newlands IESEG School of Management (France)
Mustafa Ozbayrak Brunel University (UK)
Peter Stoney Liverpool University Management School (UK)

Learning objectives are set out at the start of

each chapter and summarize what the reader should
have learned on completion of that chapter. They
also serve to highlight what the chapter covers and
help the reader review and check knowledge and
understanding.
Management Science in Action case studies
show actual applications of the techniques and
models covered in each chapter.

Summaries are given at the end of each

chapter to recap on key points.

Worked Examples are shown at the end of

each chapter walking you through a detailed
problem step-by-step, showing how a solution
Notes and Comments provide extra context to the problem can be obtained using the
and explanatory notes to help the reader’s techniques and models in that chapter.
understanding.

xvi

Problems given at the end of each chapter

provide an opportunity to test your knowledge
and understanding of that chapter. Some
problems test you ability to develop and solve a The Management Scientist Software
particular model. Others are more complex Version 6.0 accompanies this text. The software
requiring you to interpret and explain results in a allows you to formulate and solve many of the
business context. models introduced in the text.

Self test problems are linked to specific parts of

each chapter and allow you to check your Excel, and other spreadsheets, have a key role to play in
knowledge and understanding of that chapter on an management science. Output from Excel is used frequently
incremental basis. Problems marked with the self throughout the text to illustrate solutions. Appendices to
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book. solve particular models using Excel.

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Introduction
1.1 Introduction to Management Science 1.5 Models
1.2 Where Did MS Come From? 1.6 Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
Cost and Volume Models
1.3 Management Science Applications
Revenue and Volume Models
Assignment
Profit and Volume Models
Data Mining
Breakeven Analysis
Financial Decision Making
Forecasting 1.7 The Modelling Process
Logistics
1.8 Management Science Models and Techniques
Marketing
Linear Programming
Networks
Transportation and Assignment
Optimization
Integer Linear Programming
Project Planning and Management
Network Models
Queuing
Project Management
Simulation
Inventory Models
Transportation
Queuing Models
1.4 The MS Approach Simulation
Problem Recognition Decision Analysis
Problem Structuring and Definition Multicriteria Analysis
Modelling and Analysis Forecasting
Solutions and Recommendations Dynamic Programming
Implementation

Learning objectives By the end of this chapter you will be able to:

l Explain what management science is

l Detail areas in business where management science is commonly used

l Describe the management science approach or methodology

l Build and use simple quantitative models

1.1 Introduction to Management Science

Air New Zealand; Amazon; American Airlines; AT&T; Boeing; BMW; British Airways;
Citibank; Dell; Delta Airlines; Eastman Kodak; Federal Express; Ford; GE Capital;
Hanshin Expressway, Japan; an Indian tea producer; IBM; Kellogg; NASA; National
Car Rental; Nokia; Procter & Gamble; Renault; UPS; Vancouver Airport.
At first sight it’s not obvious what connects these organizations together. They’re
from different countries; some are private sector, some public sector; some operate
internationally, some domestically; they’re in different industrial and commercial
sectors; they’re of different sizes. However, they do have one thing in common – they
all successfully use management science to help run their organization.
Management science (MS) has been defined as helping people make better deci-
sions. Clearly, decision-making is at the heart of a manager’s role in any organiza-
tion. Some of these decisions will be strategic and long-term: which new products
and services to develop; which markets to expand into and which to withdraw from.
Some will be short-term and operational: how many checkouts to open at the
supermarket over the weekend; which members of staff to allocate to a new project.
Get the decisions right and the organization continues to succeed. Get the decisions
wrong and the organization may fail and disappear. Managers in just about any
organization round the world will almost certainly tell you that life has never been
tougher. There’s increasingly fierce competition – in the public sector as well as
private sector; customers require more and more but want to pay less; technological
changes continue to gather speed; financial pressures mean that costs and produc-
tivity are constantly under scrutiny. Organizations are under pressure to do things
better, do them faster and do them for less in terms of costs. Making the right
decisions under such pressures isn’t easy and it’s no surprise that many organizations
have turned to management science to help.
In today’s harsh business environment organizations and managers are looking
for structured, logical and evidence-based ways of making decisions rather than
relying solely on intuition, personal experience and gut-feel. Management Science
(also known as Operational Research) applies advanced analytical methods to busi-
ness decision problems. Management emphasizes that we’re interested in helping
manage the organization better – that MS is very much focussed on the practical,
real world. Science means that we’re interested in rigorous, analytical and systematic
ways of managing the organization better.

Does it Work?
Well, lots of organizations – like those above – think so. And there’s plenty of
evidence to show that MS really makes a difference. Some examples:
l The UK telecoms company BT used MS in the way it planned the work of
its repair engineers, saving around £125 million a year.
l British Airways used MS to review its spare parts policies for its aircraft
fleet and identified £21 million of savings.
l Motorola applied MS to its procurement strategy. During the first 18 months of
implementation, Motorola saved US$600 million, or approximately 4 per cent,
on US$16 billion of parts purchases
l Ford used MS to optimize the way it designs and tests new vehicle prototypes,
saving over £150 million
l A leading UK bank, LloydsTSB, used MS to design the seating configuration
in its call centres eliminating the need to build, and pay for, additional capacity

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

Revenue Management at American Airlines*

O ne of the great success stories in management

science involves the work done by the opera-
tions research (OR) group at American Airlines. In
to as yield or revenue management. The OR group
used forecasting and optimization techniques to deter-
mine how many seats to sell at a discount and how
1982, Thomas M. Cook joined a group of 12 opera- many seats to hold for full fare. Although the initial
tions research analysts at American Airlines. Under implementation was relatively crude, the group contin-
Cook’s guidance, the OR group quickly grew to a staff ued to improve the forecasting and optimization mod-
of 75 professionals who developed models and con- els that drive the system and to obtain better data. Tom
ducted studies to support senior management deci- Cook counts at least four basic generations of revenue
sion making. Today the OR group is called Sabre and management during his tenure. Each produced in
employs 10 000 professionals worldwide. One of the excess of US$100 million in incremental profitability
most significant applications developed by the OR over its predecessor. This revenue management sys-
group came about because of the deregulation of tem at American Airlines generates nearly $1 billion
the airline industry in the late 1970s. As a result of annually in incremental revenue. Today, virtually every
deregulation, a number of low-cost airlines were able airline uses some sort of revenue management sys-
to move into the market by selling seats at a fraction of tem. The cruise, hotel and car rental industries also
the price charged by established carriers such as now apply revenue management methods, a further
American Airlines. Facing the question of how to com- tribute to the pioneering efforts of the OR group at
pete, the OR group suggested offering different fare American Airlines.
classes (discount and full fare) and in the process
created a new area of management science referred *Based on Peter Horner, ‘The Sabre Story’, OR/MS Today (June 2000).

l Samsung used MS to cut the time taken to produce microchips, increasing

sales revenue by around £500 million.
l A UK hospital used MS to develop a computerized appointments system that
cut patient waiting times by 50 per cent.
l Peugeot applied MS to its production line in its car body shops where
bottlenecks were occurring. MS improved production with minimal capital
investment and no compromise in quality contributing US$130 million to
revenue in one year alone.
l Air New Zealand wanted to improve the way it scheduled staff allocation and
rostering. Applying MS methods enabled the company to save NZ$15 million
per year as well as implement staff rosters that built in staff preferences
l Procter and Gamble, the consumer products multinational, used MS to review
its approach to buying billions of US$ of supplies. Over a two year period this
generated financial savings of over US$300 million.
Source: Operational Research Society and the Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences (INFORMS)

And to achieve these results organizations need people who understand the
subject – management scientists – and this is why this textbook has been written.
The aim of this text is to provide you with a number of the technical skills that a
management scientist needs and also to provide you with a conceptual understand-
ing as to where and how management science can successfully be used. To help with
this, and to reinforce the practice of management science, we will be using Manage-
ment Science in Action case studies throughout the text. Each case outlines a real

application of management science in practice. The first of these, Revenue Manage-

ment at American Airlines, describes one of the most significant applications of
management science in the airline industry.

1.2 Where Did MS Come From?

Patrick Blackett At this stage you may be wondering; where did MS come from, how did it develop? It
(1897–1974) – later
is generally accepted that management science as a recognized subject has its origins
Baron Blackett – was one
of the leading figures in in the United Kingdom around the time of the Second World War (1939–1945). The
the UK in the early years UK’s very survival was threatened by its military enemies and the UK government
of operational research established a number of multidisciplinary groups to apply scientific methods to its
during Word War II and
after. With a background
military planning and activities. Such groups consisted of scientists from a variety of
in physics (for which he backgrounds: mathematics, statistics, engineering, physics, electronics, psychology as
was awarded the Nobel well as military personnel and were tasked with researching into more effective
Prize), his declared aim military operational activities (hence the name operational research). These groups
was to find numbers on
which to base decisions,
made significant contributions to the UK’s war efforts including: improvements in the
not emotion. early-warning radar system which was critical to victory in the Battle of Britain; the
organization of antisubmarine warfare; determination of optimum naval convoy sizes;
the accuracy of bombing; the organization of civilian defence systems. The fact that
these teams were multidisciplinary but also scientifically trained contributed signifi-
cantly to their success. Their scientific training and thinking meant they were used to
challenging existing ideas, they were used to querying assumptions made by others,
they saw experimentation as a routine part of their analysis, they applied logic to
problem solving and decision making, they collected and analyzed data to support
their thinking and their conclusions. The fact that members of the team had different
backgrounds, expertise and experience meant that not only could they challenge each
other’s thinking but they could also combine different approaches and thinking
together for the first time. With the entry of the USA into the Second World War
following Pearl Harbor, and given the obvious success of operational research in the
UK, a number of similar groups were also established throughout the US military
(usually known as operations research groups).
In 1948 the Operational After the war, operational research continued to develop in the military and in
Research Club of Great
Britain was established
defence-related industries on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, there was
as a way of bringing considerable academic development of management science partially financed by
together those with an the US military, particularly in the areas of mathematical techniques. In the UK,
interest in seeing OR however, operational research took on a new role contributing to the programme of
introduced into industry,
commerce and
economic reconstruction and economic and social reform pursued by the new
government. The Club Labour Government at the end of the war. The challenges faced by industry and
became the OR Society government in the UK at the time were major. There were issues relating to the
in 1953. move back to a peacetime economy and the huge transition that this would require;
there were issues relating to the management and development of the newly nation-
alized industrial organizations in industries such as coal, steel, gas, electricity, trans-
port; there was the huge demobilization of workers moving away from supporting
the war effort and back into peacetime employment. Partly as a result, and partly
because of the perceived success of operational research in the military, a number of
The first Masters and large operational research groups were established in these industries and in govern-
Ph.D academic ment. Around this time also, academic programmes in management science began
programmes in OR were to be introduced and the first dedicated textbooks started to appear.
established in 1951 at
the Case Institute of
Since then management science teams and management science techniques
Technology, Cleveland have spread into a wide variety of industrial and commercial companies, central
Ohio. government, local government, health and social care, across many different

countries. This development was in part facilitated by the huge explosion in

computing facilities and computer power. In the twenty-first-century management
science techniques are now a standard part of popular computer software, such as
Excel, and management science techniques are routinely taught across university
business and management programmes. Many countries now have their own
professional society for management scientists with the International Federation
of Operational Research Societies (IFORS) acting as an umbrella organization
IFORS was founded in comprising the national management science societies of over forty five countries
1959 with a total combined membership of over 25 000. Welcome to the club!

1.3 Management Science Applications

At this stage it will be worthwhile providing an overview of some of the decision

areas where MS is applied. Later on in the chapter, we shall examine the more
common management science techniques that are applied across these application
areas and that we shall be developing in detail through the text.

Assignment
Assignment problems arise in business where someone has to assign resources or
assets (like people, vehicles, aeroplanes) to specific tasks and where we want to do this
to minimize the costs involved or to maximize the return or profit we earn. A simple
example of this situation arises when an ambulance depot has a given number of
emergency ambulances available throughout the day. Based on past experience it
expects a number of emergency calls throughout the day to which it has to respond
swiftly. Each of its ambulances has a dedicated crew but the crews have differing
expertise and experience. The depot has to decide which individual ambulance to
assign to each emergency call. It may try to do this to minimize the time taken to
reach the location or to minimize the travel distance covered, or to send the ‘best’
crew to each type of emergency call. Whilst assignment problems often look simple,
in real life they can be extremely complex and difficult to get right. Examples of
assignment problems include: assigning referees to World Cup soccer matches;
assigning students to classes; assigning airline crews to aircraft; assigning surgical
teams to patients; assigning construction equipment to different construction proj-
ects. Management science has developed special techniques to help formulate and
solve such assignment problems.

Data Mining
Largely because of the technology now available, many organizations are collecting
large volumes of data about sales, customers, spending patterns, lifestyles and the
like. Think about what happens when you use your credit card to buy groceries at
the supermarket. The supermarket knows what you’ve bought (and can track trends
in your purchases over time); the supermarket’s suppliers know which products are
selling and which are not; your bank knows your spending profile across the year.
Used smartly, this data can allow organizations to understand better what is happen-
ing and to tailor and adapt their strategies, products and services accordingly. The
supermarket can send you details of special offers on the items you normally buy (or
perhaps on the ones that you don’t buy); your bank knows when you might need a
loan. Data mining is concerned with sifting through large amounts of data and
identifying and analyzing relevant information. Historically, its use has been con-
centrated on business intelligence and in the financial sector, although its use is

rapidly expanding across other business sectors. Data mining goes beyond routine
descriptive or quantitative analysis through the application of sophisticated techni-
ques and algorithms.

Financial Decision Making

MS plays a considerable role in financial decision making and the finance sector is a
major user of MS techniques. Think about your credit card again. Someone at your
bank or finance company had to decide what credit limit to give you when you took
out the card. Too little and you might use a card from another bank. Too much and
you may get into debt and be unable to pay them back the money they’ve effectively
let you spend. Areas where MS is routinely used include credit scoring – where an
individual’s or an organization’s ability to repay credit or loans is assessed quantita-
tively so that the lender can assess the risks involved in the loan; capital and invest-
ment budgeting – where an organization must decide on the appropriate capital or
investment projects it will fund; portfolio management – where a suitable mix of
investments must be determined.

Forecasting
It seems self evident that business organizations need to undertake effective fore-
casting of key business variables. Forecasting future sales for a retail organization;
forecasting air traffic volumes for a busy airport; forecasting demand for medical
care at a new hospital. Getting such forecasts right typically involves analyzing the
situation both quantitatively and qualitatively and a number of MS techniques are
usefully applied in forecasting situations.

Logistics
Logistics management is typically concerned with managing an organization’s supply
chain efficiently and effectively. All organization’s need to manage the supply of
resources that they need to produce goods and services – all the way from having a
new factory built, to the supply of machinery to run the factory, to the power needed
to run the machinery, to the paper clips that will be used in the factory office. In an
increasingly global and competitive economy, good logistics management can make
the difference between business success and failure. MS is routinely used to help
organizations make logistical decisions.

Marketing
The area of marketing is another that makes extensive use of MS. Managers frequently
have to make decisions regarding their organization’s marketing strategy – the
mixture of different marketing media that will be used to promote goods or services.
The decision problem is that different media will incur different costs and will reach
different audiences with varying degrees of effectiveness. The problem for the manager
is deciding what a suitable marketing strategy looks like.

Networks
A network is typically defined as an interconnected group or system of things. The
things might be roads or railways in terms of a transportation network; or computers
in a computer network; or telephones in a telecoms network. Planning and manag-
ing such networks is a critical task if the network is to function effectively – we’ve
probably all been stuck in a traffic jam at some time where the road network
couldn’t handle the traffic volumes or we’ve called through to a call centre to be

put on hold because the phone network couldn’t cope with demand. MS techniques
are applied to examine network flows – how quickly and efficiently things flow, or
move, through the network.

Optimization
Organizations are frequently looking for the best, or optimal, solution to a
decision problem they have. How do we maximize profit from our sales? How
do we minimize production costs? What is the optimum size for our workforce?
In the search for such an optimum solution, organizations will not have a totally
free hand in deciding what to do. Typically they will face certain restrictions or
constraints on what they are able to do. An organization seeking to maximize
profit from sales may face constraints in terms of its production capacity, or the
finite demand for its products. A company seeking to minimize production costs
may be locked into long-term supply contracts with some of its customers and is
constrained to meet these contract requirements. An organization looking to
determine the optimum size of its workforce may have certain health and safety
requirements to meet. MS has developed a number of different techniques for
dealing with such optimization problems.

Project Planning and Management

All organizations need to be able to plan and manage projects effectively. The
project may be relatively small involving few resources and capable of being com-
pleted fairly quickly – organizing the move of a team from one part of the office to
another – or it may be large and complex with a large budget and requiring
considerable time and effort – planning the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Once
again, MS has developed techniques to allow for the efficient and effective planning
and management of projects.

Queuing
We’ve all been in one at some time – a queue. It may have been a queue at a
supermarket while we’re waiting at the checkout; or a queue of cars at a traffic
signal; or a queue of print jobs at the network printer. Queues are frustrating for
those affected but are also difficult to manage cost-effectively. Putting extra staff on
the supermarket checkout may well reduce the time customers spend queuing but
this will also increase the supermarket’s operating costs, so some compromise will be
needed. MS uses queuing theory to examine the impact of management decisions on
queues.

Simulation
It’s not usual in business and management to be able to experiment before making a
major decision. For example, we may be considering a major alteration to our
production lines to boost productivity. We may be thinking about altering an air-
line’s global flight timetable to increase competitiveness and market share. We may
be thinking about redeploying police patrol vehicles to help tackle crime. It’s
unlikely that we would in practice be able to experiment and try different solutions
to see what happened, although most managers would like to be able to do so, to
assess the likely consequences of alternative decisions. However, whilst we can’t
experiment in the real world we can experiment using computer modelling known as
simulation. Computer simulation involves running virtual experiments so that the
consequences of alternative decisions can be analyzed.

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

Workforce Scheduling For British Telecommunications PLC

B ritish Telecommunications (BT) are leading pro-

viders of telecommunications services in the
UK. BT employs over 50 000 field engineers to main-
the difficulty of predicting in advance how much
time some jobs would take. The Operational
Research department at BT developed Work Man-
tain telecoms networks, repair faults and provide a ager, an information system that automates work
variety of services to customers. Managing the work- management and field communications. Rolled
force effectively is critical to efficiency, profitability, out in 1997 and reaching 20 000 engineers in 1998,
customer service, service quality and to staff morale this was saving BT US$150 million a year on opera-
and motivation. Workforce scheduling is essentially tional costs by 2000. When deployed over the tar-
about making sure the right field engineer goes to geted workforce of 40 000 people, the system
the right customer at the right time with the right was projected to save an estimated US$250 million
equipment. However, BT faced a very complex task. a year.
The skills and experience of engineers varied con-
siderably; their geographical location was effectively
Based on David Lesaint, Christos Voudoris, Noder Azarmi ‘Dynamic
fixed; scheduling had to incorporate individual Workforce Scheduling for British Telecommunications plc’, Interfaces
engineer constraints such as breaks and holidays; 30, no. 1 (Jan/Feb 2000): 45–56

Transportation
Transportation problems involve, predictably enough, situations where items have to
be transported in an efficient and effective way. This might involve transporting
manufactured products, such as smartphones, from where they’re made to where
they’re sold. It might involve transporting medical supplies, such as blood and
plasma, from where they’re collected to where they’re needed. It might involve
transporting food and emergency supplies from donor countries to the site of a
natural disaster such as an earthquake or cyclone. MS has developed techniques to
help managers make appropriate decisions about transportation problems.

We’ve tried to show in this section that MS isn’t just a collection of specialized
techniques only of interest to the MS specialist but rather that MS has a role to play
in many organizations where managers face such decisions. Throughout the text,
we’ll deliberately be introducing MS techniques in a business and management
context. That is we’ll be looking at a typical business decision problem and then
seeing how MS can help managers make better decisions.

1.4 The MS Approach

Not surprisingly, given the emphasis on a scientific approach to management,

management scientists try to follow a logical, systematic and analytical method when
looking at a decision problem. This approach (or methodology) is summarized in
Figure 1.1 and follows a sequence of: Problem Recognition; Problem Structuring and
Definition; Modelling and Analysis; Solution and Recommendations; Implementation.
(Note: different management scientists have their own versions of this methodology.
However, most of these are similar in content.)
We shall use a simple scenario to show how the methodology is applied. The President
of the College where you are studying has heard that you’re studying management

Figure 1.1 The MS approach

Problem
Implementation
recognition

Problem
Structuring and
Solution(s) and Definition
recommendation(s)

Modelling
and Analysis

‘scientifically’ and has asked for your help. The President has become increasingly
concerned about traffic congestion on campus and in the nearby community that
neighbours the College. There seem to be an increasing number of cars using the
campus, parking is becoming increasingly difficult especially at peak periods, there has
been a spill-over effect on the local community with more cars parked off-campus making
it difficult for local residents to go about their business or to park themselves. The
President has asked for your help in terms of what to do about the problem.

Problem Recognition
The first step is clearly to realize that a problem exists that requires a decision. This
may seem obvious – and the College President has already done this – but in a wider
management context it implies that an organization has systems in place for under-
taking monitoring and observation so that problem situations are identified at an
early a stage as possible. This implies that an organization has robust performance
monitoring and measurement systems in place at both the operational, day-to-day
level and at the strategic, long-term level. It is also worth noting that such observa-
tions will typically be undertaken by the manager in an organization – like the
College President – rather than the management scientist.
We have used the word ‘problem’ here which is standard MS terminology. Whilst
MS is typically focussed on helping solve problems – as in the case of the College
traffic levels – it is also extensively used in situations to help evaluate opportunities.
The College may be thinking, for example, of introducing a specialist MS degree
programme and wants to know which type of publicity and marketing to use – the
Internet? TV and radio? Social media? Business press?

Problem Structuring and Definition

The next stage of the MS approach is to structure the problem. This is about
ensuring that the problem is properly understood, it is placed in context and that
a clear definition of the problem to be investigated is agreed. This stage is critically
important to effective MS. Improper, or inappropriate, structuring and definition of
the problem may result in inappropriate analysis and inappropriate solutions being

identified and in the real world this problem structuring phase can be difficult,
complex and time-consuming. In our College example we would need first to put
the problem into a wider context. How long has this problem been going on?
When does it happen – during the day, at weekends, during semester? Is this
just the President’s opinion or is there general acceptance that the problem is
real? We might at this stage want to collect some preliminary data to help scope
the problem or we may want to use some qualitative MS tools (that we discuss
later) to help shape our thinking on exactly what the problem is. It is then
important to define the problem to be investigated and agree the overall purpose
and specific aims of any analysis that we might undertake. In the College
example we may set out the following:
How serious is the traffic problem on campus?
What is causing/contributing to the problem?
What could be done about the problem?
It is critical that the client – the College President – is involved in this process.
Even though they may have no expertise in MS, they are the client for the project
and it is important that they are involved in this stage to agree the problem so that
MS can then go on to solve the right problem.

Modelling and Analysis

Once we have an understanding of the wider problem context and the specific
aims of the project we can begin our analysis of the problem. Such analysis is
likely to be a combination of two types: quantitative analysis and qualitative
analysis. These are sometimes referred to as hard MS and soft MS respectively
and a good management scientist will need to develop skills in both. Soft MS
relies on a range of primarily qualitative approaches to decision making and
focuses on the people making a decision rather than on the decision problem
itself. The role of the management scientist in such a situation is primarily in
facilitating a critical, but open, discussion of differing viewpoints and perceptions
of the decision problem. Soft MS relies on verbal problem descriptions and makes
extensive use of diagrams and pictorial presentations. Such soft methods help the
decision makers to develop a shared understanding of the problem they face and
to agree on a consensus course of action to which they are committed. Hard MS,
on the other hand, tends to focus primarily on the decision problem and applies
mathematical and statistical techniques to finding a solution to the problem. In
this text we are concerned primarily with quantitative analysis, hard MS, and
through the text we shall be introducing a variety of techniques that are commonly
used – typically referred to as models. A manager can increase their decision-making
effectiveness by learning more about quantitative methodology and models and by
better understanding their contribution to the decision-making process. A manager
who is knowledgeable in quantitative decision-making models is in a much better
position to compare and evaluate both the qualitative and quantitative sources of
recommendations and ultimately to combine the two sources in order to make the best
possible decision. The skills of the quantitative approach can be learned only by studying
the assumptions and methods of management science. In the case of the College traffic
problem we may end up analyzing the situation in a number of different ways:
l Undertaking a quantitative analysis of past and current traffic flows on campus.
l Producing quantitative forecasts of likely future traffic flows.
l Determining the optimum amount of traffic that the campus can handle.
l Analyzing the effect of alternative traffic schemes on campus.

Solutions and Recommendations

Once the problem analysis is complete through the use of an appropriate MS model,
we should be in a position to offer a solution – or sometimes alternative solutions – for
the problem. However, it is important to realize that such solutions must be placed in
the wider problem context. MS is rarely able to offer a definitive solution to a manager
in the form: this is what you should do. Rather the application of MS generates addi-
tional information about the problem – and often this information is available only
through the application of MS – which the manager must evaluate alongside other
information they will have about the problem. In the case of the College, through
appropriate application of MS we may be able to offer potential solutions to the
President for consideration. However, these solutions will need to be placed in the
wider problem context – what budget is available for any changes to road layouts, for
example; what would staff and student reaction be to such changes? And so on.

Implementation
Finally, we come to implementation of the solution. Again, this is likely to be a
managerial action rather than that of the management scientist. However, the man-
agement scientist has an important role to play here. Successful implementation of
results is of critical importance to the management scientist as well as the manager. If
the results of the analysis and solution process are not correctly implemented, the
entire effort may be of no value. It doesn’t take too many unsuccessful implementa-
tions before the management scientist is out of work. Because implementation often
requires people to do things differently, it often meets with resistance. People want to
know, ‘What’s wrong with the way we’ve been doing it?’ and so on. One of the most
effective ways to ensure successful implementation is to include users throughout the
modelling process. A user who feels a part of identifying the problem and developing
the solution is much more likely to enthusiastically implement the results. The success
rate for implementing the results of a management science project is much greater for
those projects characterized by extensive user involvement.

And of course that brings us back full circle in Figure 1.1 to Problem Recognition! It
will be necessary to set up some observation system so that the solution that has
been implemented is monitored and evaluated so that we will know whether the
problem has been resolved or whether further analysis and work is needed.
It is also worth commenting that in practice the management science methodology
outlined, will not be as neat, logical or as easy as it appears in Figure 1.1. In practice
many management science problems are messy and will require an iterative approach
where we move back and forth across the different stages of the methodology. We may
develop an agreed problem structure and definition but when we move on to the
Modelling and Analysis stage we realize our problem definition was inappropriate
and needs revisiting. We may develop what we believe to be an appropriate model and
make recommendations only to find that the recommendations cannot realistically be
implemented because of factors our model did not take into account. Figure 1.2 is a
more realistic picture of the methodology we’re likely to have to follow in real life
indicating that we may have to jump around the approach a lot, go back to earlier
stages, redefine the problem and so on. It looks a mess, doesn’t it? And that’s deliberate
because a lot of MS in the real world is messy (ask any management scientist). We start
by recognizing that there’s some problem. We do some problem structuring and then
some modelling and analysis. It may be at that stage we realize we haven’t actually
structured and defined the problem properly so have to go back a step. Eventually
when we’ve got the analysis right we present recommendations to the client who tells us
they are not realistic or practical so may have to go back to the drawing board again.

Figure 1.2 Revised MS approach

Problem
recognition
Implementation

Problem
Solution(s) and Structuring and
recommendation(s) Definition

Modelling
and Analysis

1.5 Models

Management science makes considerable use of models. Models are representations of

real objects or situations and can be presented in various forms. For example, Airbus
may make a scale model of an aeroplane that they’re thinking of producing. VW may
make a model of a new vehicle prototype. The model aeroplane and vehicle are
examples of models that are physical replicas of real objects. In modelling terminology,
physical replicas are referred to as iconic models. Another classification of models – the
type we will primarily be studying – includes representations of a problem by a system
of symbols and quantitative relationships or expressions. Such models are referred to as
mathematical models and are a critical part of any quantitative approach to decision
making. For example, the total profit from the sale of a product can be determined by
multiplying the profit per unit by the quantity sold. If we let x represent the number of
units sold and P the total profit, then, with a profit of E10 per unit, the following
mathematical model defines the total profit earned by selling x units:

P ¼ 10x (1:1)

The symbols P and x are known as variables – their exact numerical value can vary,
it is not predetermined or fixed. The variable P, profit, is known as a dependent
variable since its value depends on x, the number of units sold. x is referred to as an
independent variable since its value in this equation is not dependent on another
variable. The whole equation is referred to as a functional relationship. We are
relating profit, P, to the number of units sold, x, and we are saying that profit is a
function of sales. The value of E10 in equation (1.1) is known as a parameter.
Parameters are known, constant values. Unlike variables their value does not change.
The values for parameters in a model are usually obtained from observed data. In this
case the data is likely to be readily available and reliable and accurate, after all, we
know the price we’re selling the product for. In other cases, however, the value of a
parameter may have to be estimated using the best available data and may be less
reliable. Consider a different model, for example, where we are relating the number of

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

Quantitative Analysis At Merrill Lynch*

M errill Lynch, a brokerage and financial services

firm with more than 56 000 employees in 45
countries, serves its client base through two busi-
on developing solutions that provide significant
value and are easily implemented. As the work
progresses, frequent meetings keep the clients
ness units. The Merrill Lynch Corporate and Institu- up-to-date. Because people with different skills,
tional Client Group serves more than 7 000 corpora- perspectives and motivations must work together
tions, institutions and governments. The Merrill for a common goal, teamwork is essential. The
Lynch Private Client Group (MLPC) serves approxi- group’s members take classes in team
mately four million households, as well as 225 000 approaches, facilitation and conflict resolution.
small to mid-sized businesses and regional financial They possess a broad range of multifunctional
institutions, through more than 14 000 financial con- and multidisciplinary capabilities and are motivated
sultants in 600-plus branch offices. The manage- to provide solutions that focus on the goals of the
ment science group, established in 1986, has been firm. This approach to problem solving and the
part of MLPC since 1991. The mission of this group implementation of quantitative analysis has been a
is to provide high-end quantitative analysis to hallmark of the group. The impact and success of
support strategic management decisions and to the group translates into hard dollars and repeat
enhance the financial consultant–client relationship. business. The group recently received the annual
The group has successfully implemented models Edelman award given by the Institute for Operations
and developed systems for asset allocation, finan- Research and the Management Sciences for effec-
cial planning, marketing information technology, tive use of management science for organizational
database marketing and portfolio performance success. As Launny Stevens, Merrill Lynch Vice
measurement. Although technical expertise and Chairman commented, ‘Operational Research
objectivity are clearly important factors in any ana- allowed us to seize the initiative in the marketplace.
lytical group, the group attributes much of its suc- We have moved forward like a bullet train and it is
cess to communications skills, teamwork and con- our competitors that are scrambling not to get
sulting skills. Each project begins with face-to-face run over’.
meetings with the client. A proposal is then pre-
*Based on Russ Labe, Raj Nigam, and Steve Spence, ‘Manage-
pared to outline the background of the problem, ment Science at Merrill Lynch Private Client Group’, Interfaces 29,
the objectives of the project, the approach, the no. 2 (March/April 1999): 1–14. and The Guide to Operational
required resources, the time schedule and the Research, http://www.theorsociety.com/Science_of_Better/htdocs/
implementation issues. At this stage, analysts focus prospect/or_executive_guide.pdf

items sold to the price charged. In this case we know that if we increase the price of
the product it will affect sales but we may not know for certain the exact numerical
effect – the exact value of the parameter. Here, we would have to estimate the parameter
value and recognize that this may affect the reliability of the model results – the model
can only be as accurate as the data used in its construction. Understandably this is why so
much effort goes into data collection in management science.
The purpose, or value, of any model is that it enables us to make inferences about
the real situation by studying and analyzing the model which in turn can help us make
decisions. For example, an aeroplane designer might test an iconic model of a new
aeroplane in a wind tunnel to learn about the potential flying characteristics of the full-
size aeroplane. Similarly, a mathematical model may be used to make inferences about
how much profit will be earned if a specified quantity of a particular product is sold.
According to the mathematical model of Equation (1.1), we would expect selling three
hundred units of the product (x ¼ 300) would provide a profit of P ¼ 10(300) ¼ E3000.

In general, experimenting with models requires less time and is less expensive than
experimenting with the real object or situation. A model aeroplane is certainly quicker
and less expensive to build and study than the full-size aeroplane. Similarly, the
mathematical model in Equation (1.1) allows a quick identification of profit expect-
ations without actually requiring the manager to produce and sell 300 units. Models
also have the advantage of reducing the risk associated with experimenting with the
real situation. In particular, bad designs or bad decisions that cause the model aero-
plane to crash or a mathematical model to project a E10 000 loss can be avoided in the
real situation. The value of model-based conclusions and decisions is dependent on
how well the model represents the real situation. The more closely the model
aeroplane represents the real aeroplane the more accurate the conclusions and
predictions will be. Similarly, the more closely the mathematical model represents
the company’s true profit-volume relationship, the more accurate the profit pro-
jections will be.
Obviously our model in equation (1.1) is quite simple and basic – it consists of
only one equation after all. To illustrate some additional aspects of MS models
we’ll expand the situation. Let us assume that management have agreed, during
the problem structuring and definition phase, that their problem is to maximize
the company’s profit, P. However, they have also identified certain factors that
must be taken into account when seeking to maximize profit. One critical
requirement relates to the fact that each unit of the item produced by the
company takes five hours of production time and that each day there are only
40 hours of production time available given the existing workforce. We can show
the company’s objective mathematically as:
Maximize P = 10x

And we refer to this as the objective function. We can also show the production
limitation as:
5x 40

where 5x shows the amount of production time need to produce x units and 40 shows
the total available production time. The symbol shows that the amount of produc-
tion time needed must be less than, or equal to, the 40 hours maximum that is
available. We refer to this expression as a constraint. We also have a ‘common
sense’ requirement that:
x0

that is, that production cannot be negative. Clearly, this makes sense from a business
perspective and whilst it may seem unnecessary to be this explicit it is important to specify
such requirements mathematically to ensure our model represents business reality
as closely as possible. We then have a complete model for the production situation:

Maximize P = 10x

Subject to:
5x 40
x 0

This model can now be used to help management. Clearly, the decision relates to the
value of x which will maximize profit, P, but also meets the specified constraint
requirements. x is often referred to as the decision variable – the variable about
which we need to take some decision typically in the context of what numerical value
it should take.

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

Models in Federal Express*

T oday, Federal Express (FedEx), is an acknowl-

edged leader in delivery services worldwide
with an annual revenue of over $30 billion and
started in March 1973 between 11 cities. It was
hardly an auspicious start – only six packages
needed delivery and the next couple of days
around 1/4 million employees and contractors. It proved no better. The company stopped its air
has the largest civil aviation fleet in the world. Its delivery service. Fortunately Smith brought in col-
founder and CEO, Frederick W. Smith acknowl- leagues who had an analytical and modelling back-
edges the role that models and management sci- ground. An initial model was developed looking at
ence have played in the company’s success. improving the origin-destination network that had
Indeed, if it hadn’t been for this FedEx might not originally been set up across 11 cities by taking a
be here today! Smith started FedEx in 1973 offer- more analytical approach looking at the types of
ing an overnight package delivery service between business in each city (FedEx’s potential customers),
11 cities in the south and southeast of the US. competition, likely market share. As a result a new
The innovative service operated on a hub-and- 26 city network was proposed and two months later,
spoke system (named after an old fashioned in April 1973, FedEx reopened its air delivery service
wagon wheel, where the hub is the centre part to great success. Additional models were developed
of the wheel and the spokes radiate out from the not long after, helping the business grow and suc-
centre to the edge of the wheel). Smith’s idea ceed: a flight scheduling and resourcing model and
was to use a fleet of aeroplanes to transport all a financial planning model allowing FedEx to assess
packages from their origin, to a central hub the financial implications of alternative routes and
facility (in Memphis). Then all the packages flying schedules. Unsurprisingly, CEO Fred Smith
would be sorted and flown back out across the has become a strong supporter of management
spokes to the city of destination. Many people science modelling.
commented at the time that this was a crazy
*Source: FedEx website and on Absolutely, Positively Operations
idea and would never work. They were almost Research: the Federal Express Story, R.O. Mason, J.L. McKenney,
right. FedEx had acquired a fleet of 22 executive W. Carlson and D. Copeland in Interfaces 27:2 March-April 1997
jets to use as cargo planes and the service pp 17–36

1.6 Models of Cost, Revenue and Profit

Some of the most basic quantitative models arising in business and economic
applications are those involving the relationship between a volume variable –
such as production volume or sales volume – and cost, revenue and profit.
Through the use of these models, a manager can determine the projected cost,
revenue, and/or profit associated with an established production quantity or a
forecasted sales volume. Financial planning, production planning, sales quotas
and other areas of decision making can benefit from such cost, revenue and
profit models.

Cost and Volume Models

The cost of manufacturing or producing a product is a function of the volume
produced. This cost can usually be defined as a sum of two costs: fixed cost and
variable cost. Fixed cost is the portion of the total cost that does not depend on the
production volume: this cost remains the same no matter how much is produced.
Variable cost, on the other hand, is the portion of the total cost that is dependent

on and varies with the production volume. To illustrate how cost and volume models
can be developed, we will consider a manufacturing problem faced by Nowlin Plastics
in Shanghai. Nowlin Plastics produces a variety of compact disc (CD) storage cases.
Nowlin’s bestselling product is the CD-50, a slim, plastic CD/DVD holder with a
specially designed lining that protects the optical surface of the disc. The holders are
sold in units of 50 cases. Several products are produced on the same manufacturing
line, and a setup cost is incurred each time a changeover is made for a new product.
Suppose that the setup cost for the CD-50 is E3000. This setup cost is a fixed cost
that is incurred regardless of the number of units eventually produced. In addition,
suppose that labour and material costs are E2 for each unit produced. The cost-volume
model for producing x units of the CD-50 can be written as:

CðxÞ ¼ 3000 þ 2x (1:2)

where
x = production volume in units
C(x) = total cost of producing x units

Once a production volume is determined, the model in Equation (1.2) can be

used to calculate the total production cost. For example, management have an order
for 1200 units (x ¼ 1200) and using equation (1.2) we can see that this would result
in a total cost of C(1200) ¼ 3000 + 2(1200) ¼ E5400.
Marginal cost is defined as the rate of change of the total cost with respect to
production volume. That is, it is the cost increase associated with a one-unit increase
in the production volume. In the cost model of Equation (1.3), we see that the total
cost C(x) will increase by E2 for each unit increase in the production volume. Thus,
the marginal cost is E2. With more complex total cost models, marginal cost may
depend on the production volume. In such cases, we could have marginal cost
increasing or decreasing with the production volume x.

Revenue and Volume Models

Management of Nowlin Plastics will also want information on the projected revenue
associated with selling a specified number of units – a model of the relationship
between revenue and volume is also needed. Each case of CD-50 units sells for E5.
The model for total revenue can now be written as:

RðxÞ ¼ 5x (1:3)

where
x = sales volume in units
R(x) = total revenue from selling x units

Marginal revenue is defined as the rate of change of total revenue with respect to
sales volume. That is, it is the increase in total revenue resulting from a one-unit
increase in sales volume. In the model of Equation (1.3), we see that the marginal
revenue is E5. In this case, marginal revenue is constant and does not vary with the
sales volume. With more complex models, we may find that marginal revenue
increases or decreases as the sales volume x increases.

Profit and Volume Models

One of the most important criteria for management decision making in the private
sector is profit. Managers need to be able to know the profit implications of their
decisions. If we assume that we will only produce what can be sold, the production
volume and sales volume will be equal. We can combine Equations (1.2) and (1.3) to
develop a profit-volume model that will determine the total profit associated with a
specified production-sales volume. Total profit, denoted P(x), is total revenue minus
total cost; therefore, the following model provides the total profit associated with
producing and selling x units:

PðxÞ ¼ RðxÞ CðxÞ

¼ 5x ð3000 þ 2xÞ ¼ 3000 þ 3x (1:4)

Breakeven Analysis
Using Equation (1.4), we can now determine the total profit associated with any
production volume x. For example, suppose that a demand forecast indicates that
500 units of the product can be sold. The decision to produce and sell the 500 units
results in a projected profit of:

Pð500Þ ¼ 3000 þ 3ð500Þ ¼ 1500

In other words, a loss of E1500 is predicted. If sales are expected to be 500 units,
the manager may decide against producing the product. However, a demand fore-
cast of 1800 units would show a projected profit of:

Pð1800Þ ¼ 3000 þ 3ð1800Þ ¼ 2400

or E2400. This profit may be enough to justify proceeding with the production and
sale of the product. We see that a volume of 500 units will yield a loss, whereas a
volume of 1800 provides a profit. The volume that results in total revenue equalling
total cost (providing E0 profit) is called the breakeven point. If the breakeven point
is known, a manager can quickly infer that a volume above the breakeven point will
result in a profit, while a volume below the breakeven point will result in a loss.
Thus, the breakeven point for a product provides valuable information for a man-
ager who must make a yes/no decision concerning production of the product. Let us
now return to the Nowlin Plastics example and show how the total profit model in
Equation (1.4) can be used to compute the breakeven point. The breakeven point
can be found by setting the total profit expression equal to zero and solving for the
production volume.
Using equation (1.4), we have:
PðxÞ ¼ 3000 þ 3x
0 ¼ 3000 þ 3x
3000 ¼ 3x
x ¼ 1000

With this information, we know that production and sales of the product must be
greater than 1000 units before a profit can be expected. The graphs of the total cost
model, the total revenue model, and the location of the breakeven point are shown
in Figure 1.3.

Figure 1.3 Graph of the Breakeven Analysis for Nowlin Plastics

Total Revenue

Revenue and Cost (€)

10 000 R(x ) = 5 x

8000 Profit

6000 Fixed Cost

Total Cost
4000 C( x ) = 3000 + 2 x
Loss
2000 Breakeven Point = 1000 Units

x
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Production Volume

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

A Spreadsheet Tool for Catholic Relief Services*

C atholic Relief Services (CRS) is a not-for-profit

organization that supports development activ-
ities and humanitarian relief efforts across the world
time there was little in the way of analysis that was
used to help managers and CRS decide that it needed
a simple-to-use tool that would help managers make
operating with around 4000 field staff in almost 100 more effective budget allocation decisions. A budget
different countries. Its work is both short-term – allocation model was developed with a spreadsheet
responding with emergency programmes to natural tool. The spreadsheet model allocates available
and man-made disasters – and longer-term – sup- funds in order to have maximum impact but at the
porting development programmes in agriculture, same time to be consistent with CRS mission objec-
education and health. Its annual budget is around tives and priorities. Managers are able to influence
US$500 million with around half of this going on the allocation, for example by setting limits to what
emergency aid and support. Each year managers each country could practically cope with. Manage-
in CRS have to decide how best to allocate the ment have responded positively to the current
available funding to different projects in different model and spreadsheet tool partly because it is
countries. Some of these projects are already in simple to use and partly because they were involved
place and need continuing funding and support in shaping the model so have an understanding as
and yet each year requests for new projects have to how the spreadsheet tool works and can have
to be considered. Not only do managers have to trust and confidence in its results.
take into account the available funding but also try *Based on Investment Analysis and Budget Allocation at Catholic Relief
to ensure this funding is being used to best effect in the Services, I. Gamvros, R. Nidel and S. Raghavan, Interfaces Vol. 36,
context of the CRS mission and objectives. At the No. 5, September-October 2006, pp 400–406

1.7 The Modelling Process

As we have discussed, one of the features that distinguishes management science

from other management disciplines is the extensive use of models – both qualitative
and quantitative. Throughout the text we shall be introducing a number of the more

common quantitative models used in management science. However, it must be

appreciated that such models and the process of creating suitable models is part of
the wider management science methodology that we discussed in Section 1.4.
Management science models are not plug-and-play solutions to management problems
(although some organizations do see, and use, them this way.) That is, it is not simply a
situation of choosing a model, plugging it into the problem and finding a solution.
Rather, model building in management science is both a science and an art. The
science comes from knowing what models are available, how they are typically con-
structed and used and what their limitations are. The art relates to the process of adapting
the model to the business problem being examined – making the model fit the problem
situation as well as it can and also appreciating where some of this fit is less good. It must
be remembered that any model is a simplified version of reality – we are not trying to
capture the problem situation in all its complexity but rather simplify the problem down
to its key elements so that we can more easily make sense of it and better analyze it.
The modelling process typically consists of a number of iterative stages. Initial
model selection involves the management scientist identifying which model, or
models, seem best suited for the problem. This typically follows the Problem
Structuring stage of the overall methodology outlined earlier in Figure 1.2. Obvi-
ously, this assumes that the management scientist is aware of the different models
available. Clearly, this is one of the purposes of this text – to help you become aware
of the different quantitative models available. However, for the management science
practitioner, this stage is less obvious than it first appears. Management Science, like
all other academic disciplines, is constantly changing with new models and techni-
ques being developed. It is also worth realizing that in practice more than one model
may be used. For example, in order to build and use a revenue model we might first
need to build a forecasting model to forecast consumer reaction to price and volume
changes. Following initial model selection we then typically get involved in data
collection as the next stage. This will involve searching for and collecting the data needed
by the model we have decided to use. Different models have different data require-
ments and to some extent the availability of appropriate data may restrict the choice
of model. As we shall see, some models require a lot of accurate and reliable data –
they’re often referred to as data-hungry models. If this isn’t available, the management
scientist may have to choose another model which has fewer data requirements (or set
out to collect the data that the first-choice model needs if time and budget permit).
Assuming appropriate data is available, the next stage is model construction – building
an appropriate model for the problem. Once again, in practice, this is more difficult
than it seems. Any model is a simplified version of reality – in other words there are
certain aspects of the problem that we conveniently push to one side in order to build a
simpler picture of the problem situation we face. This often requires the modeller to
make certain assumptions and these assumptions can make all the difference between a
good model and a bad one. Sometimes these assumptions may be explicitly stated. In
other cases they may be implied. If we return to the Nowlin breakeven model that we
built in Section 1.5 there are no explicit assumptions stated. However, there are certain
assumptions implied in the model. These include:
l We assume that the data used – such as fixed cost and variable cost – is known
for certain, is accurate and is fixed and constant.
l We assume that customers will continue to buy the product at E5 no matter
how many we sell and no matter what our competitors might do.
Such assumptions may be necessary to allow us to build a suitable model but they
may not always be reliable assumptions – or rather they may be reliable only under
certain limited conditions. The assumptions made may affect the reliability and

usefulness of the model. This is another reason why the client/decision-maker should
also be involved in the modelling process – they may know better than the manage-
ment scientist which assumptions are realistic and which less so. Model testing or
model validation is typically the next stage. This is where we use the model and the
data to analyze/solve the problem and try to assess whether the model is a reason-
able one for the problem situation. In part this is about assessing whether the output
we get from the model appears sensible given the problem context. Finally, if we are
satisfied the model has been validated then we can proceed to model use – starting
to use the model to assist the decision-maker. Again, it is worth emphasizing that in
practice the modelling process – like the rest of the management science method-
ology – is messy, iterative, time-consuming and typically frustrating with a lot of trial-
and-error often taking place before a satisfactory outcome has been realized.

1.8 Management Science Models and Techniques

In this section we give a brief overview of the MS techniques and models covered in this
text and on the complementary online platform. Don’t be put off by the fact that some
may seem very technical. We’ll see later how these techniques work and how they can
be used effectively in decision-making.

Linear Programming
We start the text by looking in detail at one of the classic MS techniques – that of
linear programming (LP). LP is a problem-solving approach developed for situations
where we require to determine an optimum solution and where we face certain
limitations or constraints on what we are able to do. We may seek to maximize profit,
minimize costs, minimize travel time, maximize sales but subject to various constraints
imposed on the problem. The term programming refers not to the need for computer
programming but to the fact that technique comprises a set of logical steps to
determine the optimal solution to an LP problem. The term linear indicates that the
problem can be set out using linear (straight-line) relationships between the variables.

Transportation and Assignment

We next look at a specialized group of techniques that are applied to transportation
and assignment problems. These are common application areas where items have to
be transported between locations or where resources have to be assigned to partic-
ular tasks. Because of their relatively specialized focus, a number of solution techni-
ques have been developed for these types of problem.

Network Models
Specialized solution procedures exist for problems involving some sort of network
(such as roads or routes) enabling us to quickly and effectively solve problems in
such areas as transportation system design, information system design and project
scheduling.

Project Management
In many situations, managers are responsible for planning, scheduling and control-
ling projects that consist of numerous separate jobs or tasks performed by a variety
of departments, individuals and so forth. The PERT (Programme Evaluation and
Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method) techniques help managers
carry out their project scheduling responsibilities.

Inventory Models
Having the right levels of inventory, or stock, is critical for many organizations. Too
much inventory makes costs escalate. Too little inventory and sales and production
may suffer. Inventory models are used by managers faced with the dual problems of
maintaining sufficient inventories, or stock, to meet demand for goods and, at the
same time, incurring the lowest possible inventory costs.

Queuing Models
Waiting-line or queuing models have been developed to help managers understand and
make better decisions concerning the operation of situations involving queues. Using
mathematical models we shall see how queuing situations can be analyzed to predict
factors such as the time a customer may have to wait in a queue before service, the likely
size of queues that may build up and the effect on queues of changing the service process.

Simulation
Simulation is a computer-based technique used to model the operation of a system
or process so that experimentation can be conducted to evaluate the consequences
of alternative decisions. This technique employs computer programs to model the
operation and perform simulation computations.

Decision Analysis
Decision analysis is a formal approach to decision making and can be used to
determine optimal strategies in situations where there are several decision alter-
natives and where the outcomes or consequences of these decisions are uncertain.

Multicriteria analysis
We then have a chapter that introduces a variety of multicriteria methods. Such
methods are used where we are making a decision where we must somehow take a
variety of criteria into account when deciding what best to do. For example, you may be
considering buying a new laptop. In trying to decide which make and model to buy
you’ll take a variety of conflicting criteria into account: price, reputation, reliability and
so on. Goal programming is one technique for solving multicriteria decision problems,
usually within the framework of linear programming. Analytic Hierarchy Process is
another multicriteria decision-making technique which permits the inclusion of sub-
jective factors in arriving at a recommended decision.

The following four chapters are located on the associated premium online platform
that is autopackaged with the text. For more information on access, see the ‘Digital
Resources’ page at the front of the book.

Integer Linear Programming

Integer linear programming is an approach used for problems that can be set up as
linear programmes with the additional requirement that some or all of the decision
variables take integer values. For example, a car manufacturer may be looking to
optimize the number of dealer outlets to supply to, where, clearly, the number of
outlets must sensibly be an integer value.

Forecasting
We then look at a variety of forecasting techniques that can be used to predict
future aspects of a business operation. We look at time series models which
analyze the movement of a business variable over time; we look at methods of

trend projection where we forecast the future trend in some variable; we look at
regression analysis which focuses on trying to quantitatively explain and predict
the movement in a variable; and we introduce a number of qualitative approaches
to forecasting.

Dynamic Programming
In this next online chapter, we look at dynamic programming which is an approach
that allows us to break up a large problem in such a fashion that once all the smaller
problems have been solved, we are left with an optimal solution to the large
problem. As with linear programming, the programming term indicates a logical
series of stages in our solution method.

Markov Process Models

Finally, in this last online chapter we look at Markov process models, which are
useful in studying the evolution of processes of systems over repeated trials. For
example, Markov processes have been used to describe the probability that a
machine, functioning in one period, will break down in another period.

Summary
l This text focuses on the quantitative techniques and models that are commonly used in management
science.
l The primary purpose of such techniques and models is providing information that will help people
make better decisions than they otherwise could have done.
l Management science is used successfully in many business organizations and makes a substantial
contribution to improved performance at both the operational and strategic levels.
l One of the distinguishing features of management science is its extensive use of models – both
qualitative and quantitative – to help decision-making. Knowledge of the quantitative management
science models that are available and their appropriate use is critical to a successful management
scientist. Equally important is a knowledge of the modelling process and where this fits into the wider
methodology adopted by management scientists.
l As we progress through the text, we shall be developing your knowledge and understanding of the
more common quantitative management science models; we shall help you understand where their
use is appropriate through examples, case studies and Management Science in Action examples; we
shall develop your skills in modelling and we will help you become a better management scientist!

WORKED EXAMPLE

A t the end of each chapter we shall introduce a

detailed business problem and show how
the problem can be analyzed using MS techniques
congestion on campus. Some initial survey work
suggests that during semesters around 5000 cars
per weekday arrive on campus although most do not
introduced in that chapter. You should read the stay all day. Following some initial consultation, one
example and then develop your own solution to the option now under consideration relates to the con-
problem before going on to read our suggestions. struction of an additional short-term car park on
In this chapter we introduced the scenario that some spare land next to the campus. Initial analysis
the President of your College had approached you has concluded that the car park could be con-
seeking help with the problem of increased traffic structed for a one-off cost of E2 million. To pay for

the construction the College is able to take a 20-year Cost ¼ 400 000 þ 0:25x
loan from the local bank (run by one of the College’s
alumni). Under the terms of the loan, the College Revenue = 2.50X
would pay off the amount at a rate of E250 000 per
year for 20 years. It is estimated that the car park Breakeven occurs when cost ¼ revenue so we
would cost a further E150 000 per year to operate have:
and maintain regardless of how many cars used it. 400 000 þ 0:25x ¼ 2:50x
Students and staff using the car park during semes-
ter would be charged E1 for two hours parking. And solving for x gives x ¼ 177,777.8. For report-
Outside of semester, parking would be free. Initial ing purposes in practice we’d probably show this as
market research suggests that each car using the 177 800 or even 180 000. So, with the information
car park would stay on average for five hours. given, 180 000 cars a year would need to pay to
Semesters typically cover 25 weeks each year and use the car park for the project to breakeven. How-
during semester the car park would be open from ever, we can also provide some additional informa-
7.00 a.m. until 10.00 p.m. To offset pollution and tion that might help the President. Under the pro-
carbon emissions, the College will contribute E0.25 posal only cars using the car park during semester
for each car using the car park to a carbon offset would be charged. Semesters last 25 weeks so on
scheme which will use the money for additional tree average, we’d need around 7200 cars per week
planting. You have been asked about how many cars (180 000 divided by 25) to breakeven. This also
would need to use the car park for it to breakeven. equates to 1440 cars per day (assuming the College
The President is also looking for any other advice operates five days per week). Clearly, at this stage
that you can offer. we’d need to go back to the President and ask
whether the 1440 cars per day looked a realistic
Solution target. After all, we have no information on the size
of the College, the number of students attending per
Well, where to start? day, how many students travel by car and so on. We
It’s a typical, messy management science prob- can also go one stage further and speculate about
lem. There’s some data, we’ve been given a task the required size of the car park. With 1440 cars
which is fairly specific (work out breakeven for the required per day to breakeven, we know from the
car park) but we’ve also been given a fairly open- information given that each car stays an average of
ended remit in terms of any other advice we can five hours. That gives a total of 7200 hours of parking
offer. Clearly, in terms of Figure 1.2 we’re effectively each day (1440 x 5). The car park is open 15 hours
at the Modelling and Analysis stage so let’s do each day (from 7.00 a.m. until 10.00 p.m.) so divid-
what we can. We’ve been asked to determine the ing the total parking hours (7200) by the hours avail-
number of cars needed to use the proposed car able (15) the car park would require a minimum of
park for it to breakeven. Let’s collect together the 480 parking places. This is based on the assumption
data we have and build a basic breakeven model. that parking would be evenly spread through the 15
The College will incur two fixed costs if it goes hours the car park is open. This is an unrealistic
ahead with the project. There’s the annual repay- assumption but the only one we can make on the
ment to the bank of E250 000 and there’s the information currently available. So, we’d need to
annual operating cost of E150 000. Both these advise the President that it looks like the car park
costs remain constant, or fixed, no matter how will need to be able to accommodate around 500
many cars use the car park. There’s also a variable cars for breakeven. To summarize we can now
cost of E0.25 to the carbon offset scheme for each inform the President that, based on the information
car using the car park. On the revenue side the available:
College will get E1 for every two hours of parking
during semester time with cars on average staying l The proposed car park will need around
for five hours. This equates to a revenue per car 180 000 cars a year paying an average of
per stay of E2.50. If we let x be the number of cars E2.50 per stay to break even.
using the car park over a year (the decision varia- l This equates to around 1440 cars per day
ble) we then have: during semester.

l The car park will need a minimum of 500 breakeven if some aspects of the problem are
parking spaces. assumed to change.
We’ve had to make a number of assumptions to And recollecting that we’ve been asked to get
get to this stage and, in practice, it would be worth- involved in this project at the Modelling and Analysis
while checking with the client that these were appro- stage, we might suggest to the President that it may
priate and realistic. Amongst the assumptions we’ve be worth going back a stage and spending some
had to make are: time structuring and defining the problem. After all,
we’re starting from a position that it’s already been
l The annual repayment amount of E250 000 is decided that a new car park is the solution to the
fixed over the next 20 years. problem. Well, maybe it is and maybe it isn’t. Have
l The annual operating cost is E150 000 is also other factors been considered? Have other possible
fixed over the next 20 years. options been considered and evaluated? For exam-
l The car park charges and the carbon offset ple, are we sure the problem is one of too many
charge will remain the same over the next 20 cars? Or is too few people in most cars? Then
years. perhaps promoting a car-sharing scheme might be
more cost-effective? Is it poor public transport links
l The carbon offset contribution of E0.25 only
to the College? If so, discussions with local transport
applies to those cars paying for car parking
companies might prove productive. And if it is a
during semester.
problem with too many cars, maybe we should look
Clearly, if the President felt that some, or all, of for other solution options. How about reducing the
these assumptions were unrealistic then we could need for students to be on campus so often perhaps
change the model accordingly. For example, we making library material available online could cut
could build year-on-year increases into the operating down on traffic volume. Perhaps for some classes
costs figure and the car park charge to build in likely running them as virtual classes through the Internet
inflation. In practice, we’d probably want to build a rather than face-to-face classes may also cut down
simple spreadsheet model so the President could on traffic and may even increase student numbers!
do some what-if analysis – analyzing the impact on That’s good MS!

Problems
1 List and discuss the different stages of the management science approach.
2 Discuss the different roles played by the qualitative and quantitative approaches to
managerial decision making. Why is it important for a manager or decision maker to have a
good understanding of both of these approaches to decision making?
3 A firm has just completed a new plant that will produce more than 500 different
products, using more than 50 different production lines and machines. The production
scheduling decisions are critical in that sales will be lost if customer demands are not met
on time. If no individual in the firm has experience with this production operation, and if new
production schedules must be generated each week, why should the firm consider a
quantitative approach to the production scheduling problem? Why will qualitative analysis
also be necessary?
4 What are the advantages of analyzing and experimenting with a model as opposed to a
real object or situation?
5 Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models
of a given situation: (a) a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation

of the real situation, and (b) a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate
mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model
described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?
6 Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d kilometres away. Develop
a model that determines your round-trip fuel costs. What assumptions or
approximations are necessary? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable
to you?
7 A food store in Glasgow specializes in selling organic produce to local restaurants. In
the summer it buys fresh raspberries (a Scottish delicacy) from two authorized
organic farms in Tayside – the McGregor Farm and the Campbell Farm. Raspberries
are supplied ready for sale in cartons containing ½ kilo. The McGregor Farm charges
the food store £0.20 per carton and can supply no more than 4000 cartons a week
during the short growing season. The Campbell Farm charges £0.25 per carton and
can supply no more than 3000 cartons a week. The food store anticipates being able
to sell cartons at £0.75.
Let x to represent the number of cartons each week shipped from the McGregor
Farm and y to represent the number of cartons each week shipped from the
Campbell Farm.
a. Write a mathematical expression to show the total number of cartons received each
week by the Glasgow food store.
b. Write a mathematical expression to show the total cost of cartons received each
week.
c. Write a mathematical expression to show the total profit made by the food store each
week from selling cartons to local restaurants.
d. The food store anticipates that local restaurants will buy no more than 5000 cartons a
week. Write this mathematically as a constraint.
e. Write mathematically the supply constraint for each farm.
f. Assuming the food store wants to maximize profit from selling raspberries, write out the
full mathematical model.
g. What key assumptions have you had to make for f?

8 For most products, higher prices result in a decreased demand, whereas lower prices
result in an increased demand. Let:

d ¼ annual demand for a product in units

p ¼ price per unit

Assume that a firm accepts the following price-demand relationship as being

realistic:
d ¼ 800 10p
where p must be between E20 and E70.
a. How many units can the firm sell at the E20 per-unit price? At the E70 per-unit
price?
b. Show the mathematical model for the total revenue (TR), which is the annual demand
multiplied by the unit price.
c. Based on other considerations, the firm’s management will only consider price
alternatives of E30, E40 and E50. Use your model from part (b) to determine the price
alternative that will maximize the total revenue.
d. What are the expected annual demand and the total revenue corresponding to your
recommended price?

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— Pelona, tráeme una cuchara, prosiguió D. Martin dirigiéndose á una
chiquilla, veterana ya en la compañía de intrusos que reforzaban la
guarnicion de la casa del rico mayorazgo.
La cuchara fué traida por el aire; pues la paciencia de don Martin era el
mínimum de la dósis repartido á los mortales. Metióla el señor en el caldero
que llenaban garbanzos, y por ser dia de Pascua, unos cabritos cortados á
pedazos. Despues de haber gustado su contenido, meneó la cabeza y dijo:
Que venga la cocinera.
— Oye, comadre estropajo, triste fregona, le apostrofó su amo al verla
venir, ¿te has figurado tú que se me han quemado los olivares?
— No, señor; ¿porqué me dice su merced eso?
— Porque este guiso tiene el aceite que parece que se lo has echado por
el amor de Dios. Y díme: ¿por ventura se ha cerrado el alfolí en Villa-
María?
— No, que yo sepa, señor.
— Pues entónces, reina del soplador, ¿cómo es que está el guiso este mas
soso que tú?
Todos se echaron á reir, y la cocinera se fué corrida.
Entróse á la sazon, como Pedro por su casa, la tia Latrana con garbo y
desembarazo.
— ¿Cómo se atreve Vd. á ponérseme delante, porta-pendon de la
insolencia? esclamó D. Martin indignado; ¿no sabe Vd. que no quiero
verla?
— Señor D. Martin, respondió con gran aplomo la vieja, porque un
borrico dé una coz ¿se le va á cortar la pata? Vengo, como es rigular, en mi
nombre y en el de mi comadre la tia Machuca...
— ¡Sí, su comadre de Vd. la tia Pescueza! ¡pues ya!... á Vd. no es
menester arrufarla para que me venga á quemar la sangre; yo, que para
descanso de mi alma, la tenia á Vd. olvidada.
— ¡Ya se ve! el que tiene la barriga llena, no se acuerda del que la tiene
vacía. Venia, pues, como iba diciendo, á dar á su mercé las Pascuas en
compañía de su esposa la señora doña Brígida, del señor Abad y de la
señorita Clemencia, ese esporton de rosas.
— Y Vd. que es uno de granzas, diga que viene en su nombre y en el de
su comadre la resucitada á pedirme aguinaldos, y hablará verdad una vez en
su vida, pues menea la cola el can, no por tí, sino por el pan.
— ¡Jesus, señor! acá no somos capaces de hacer nada por interes, ni de
valernos de esa tartagema: ¡vaya!...
— ¿Capaces?... ¡Capaces son Vds. ambas de contarle los pelos al diablo,
de sacarle los dientes á un ahorcado, de levantar los muertos de la sepultura,
y de cortarle un sayo á las ánimas benditas!
— ¡Pues qué! esclamó con dignidad ofendida la tia Latrana, ¿piensa su
mercé que mi comadre y yo somos unas cualesquieras, ni gentes de poco
mas ó ménos? No señor, somos bien nacidas y de buen tronco: aquí donde
Vd. nos ve, tenemos alcuña; los descendientes de mi comadre fueron en
años témporas gentes muy empinadas. Sus abuelos fueron sujetos muy
considerables.
— Pues los descendientes muy empinados y los sujetos muy
considerables, han engendrado una nieta que es un chapuz.
— Un rey de España, prosiguió con prosopopeya la genealogista, les
puso nombre Machuca, de puro machucar moros.
— Y yo le pongo el de Machaca, de puro machacar cristianos.
— Por lo que toca á mí, prosiguió irguiéndose la tia Latrana, ha de saber
su mercé que el árbol de la generacion de mi casa dice que fueron ántes de
destronados mis abuelos, y cuando estaban en su solio, muy emperantes, y
que eran entónces los Ramirez Várgas, piernas de santo.
— Pues lo que les ha quedado de sus grandezas á los Ramirez Várgas,
son narices largas, ¿está usted? Dejémosnos de padres y abuelos, y seamos
nosotros buenos. Por ser hoy el dia que es, no me puedo negar á socorrer á
Vds., que son hoy, no piernas de santo, sino patas de gallo con espolones!
pero, tia Emperante... ¡una y no mas, señor San Blas! — Juana, prosiguió
D. Martin llamando al ama de llaves, dá á esta pierna de santo una de
cabrito, dos hogazas de pan, dos libras de tocino; y váyase la considerable á
donde el humo en dia de levante.
La vieja siguió á Juana, y volvió cargada con los donativos atestados en
una espuerta.
— Ahora, tia destronada, dijo D. Martin; ponga usted de proa sus narices
hácia la puerta, escúrrase con viento en popa, y múdese liberal.
— ¿Qué está Vd. ahí parada como mojon de término? preguntó el señor,
viendo que la vieja no se movia.
— Señor, queria decirle á su mercé que este pan es duro.
— Mas vale Duranda que no Miranda, señá Ramirez Várgas.
— Pero como á mi comadre le falta la denticion...
— Que la pida prestada.
— Señor, es que hay allí pan tierno; y Juana me dió el duro por mala
voluntad.
— ¿No sabe Vd. que una de las tres verdades del barquero es, el pan
duro... duro... mas vale duro que ninguno?
— Señor, habia allí unas teleritas mas tiernecitas, y cogí una, y Juana...
— ¡Caramba con la tia rapiña esta, que lo que sus ojos ven, sus manos
águilas son!
— Pero, señor, ¡si yo y mi comadre estamos como las gallinas del tio
Alambre, que las despertaba el hambre!
— Lo que están Vds. es como las gallinas del tio Rincon, que saltaban
siete corrales por conversacion.
— En fin, señor, le he advertido lo del pan duro por si no lo sabia; y
tambien le advierto que este tocino no tiene las dos libras cabales, y que no
es de buena parte.
— Pues lléveselo Vd. á su sobrino que está ahora Emperante en Francia.
¡Caracoles con la zorzala esta, que tiene agallas para ciento, y es mas
desagradecida que tierra de guijo! Pues ¿no seria acaso menester engordarle
los cochinos con almendras, y amasarle el pan con leche á esta pierna de
santo? ¿Por qué viene Vd. con esa voz que me suena á campana cascada, á
atolondrarme los oidos si no le satisface lo que le doy? ¡Caracoles! que
siempre la mas ruin oveja se ensucia en la colodra.
— Vengo, señor D. Martin, porque es su mercé rico, y que mas da el
duro que el desnudo; que si no... ¡en la vida de Dios habia de aportar por
aquí! pues por una de miel, da su mercé tres de hiel.
— ¡Por vida de la Vírgen del Lagar! esclamó colérico D. Martin, que me
ha de hacer Vd. sentir el ser rico. ¡Vaya Vd. muy con Dios, tia espantajo!
con esa cara que siempre parece que está probando vinagre, y esa cabeza
erizada que parece una parva de arvejones. Sobre que cuando veo á Vd. me
queda todo el dia una hiel y un asombro como si hubiese visto al demonio.
— ¡Jesus, señor! pues yo no soy ningun Eron, dijo muy picada la vieja.
— No, ¿para qué? Es Vd. mas fea que el tio Molino, que le dieron el
óleo en la nuca, porque de feo no se lo pudieron dar en la cara.
— Pues ¡muy buenos quince que tuve, Señor, D. Martin! y cuando
volvió mi Juan de la guerra de Pepiñá para casarse, me dijo que no habia
visto por allá mejor hembra que yo.
— Si fuese eso cierto, habria mentido el refran que dice que quien tuvo,
retuvo... pues lo que es ahora, mas que fuese un valiente de la guerra del
Rosellon, se habia de asustar al verla. Ea, coja usted dos de luz, y cuatro de
traspon.
— Pues quédese Vd. con Dios, señor D. Martin, el Señor se lo pague y le
aumente los bienes, y sobre todo la buena voluntad. Memorias á la señora y
á la señorita; y mandar, señor D. Martin.
— Señor, le dijo el ama de llaves, presentándole dos grandes platos de
loza sevillana, que contenian masa frita y bollos de aceite; esto han
mandado las mujeres del yegüerizo y del temporil. No están muy allá ni los
bollos ni los pestiños: ¿los pongo en la mesa?
— Sí, sí, repuso el señor, que en la mesa del rey la torta ajena parece
bien.
— Eso se ha hecho con la harina y el aceite que les mandó su mercé
repartir, observó Juana.
— Podrá ser, mujer, y que hayan tenido presente aquello de á quien te da
el capon dále la pierna y el alon.
D. Martin se levantó, atravesó el patio para ir á la sala, cuando al pasar
frente del porton se encontró con la tia Latrana, que retrocedia en su
retirada.
— ¡El demonio se pierda y Vd. tambien! esclamó sorprendido: ¿no lleva
Vd. todavía bastante, tia sanguijuela?
— Señor, mire su mercé que el frio que hace, pela, corta la cara y lastima
la cabeza; vea su mercé el pañolon mio todo destrozadito, dijo la vieja
cogiendo el pico del pañolon que llevaba sobre la cabeza, y estendiéndolo á
la vista de D. Martin; déme su mercé un pañolito que me abrigue, señor;
que por eso no ha de ser su mercé ni mas pobre, ni mas rico.
— Pues si no ha nada de tiempo que le dió á usted la señora uno suyo.
— Verdad es, señor; pero lo que otro suda, á mí poco me dura: ¿es
rigular, señor, que yo me muera de frio?
— ¿Y es rigular que sea yo su abastecedor general, tia cáustico?
— ¿Y cómo ha de ser, si su mercé tiene, y yo no? Yo he de buscar
arrimo; que el que no tiene sombrajo, se encalma; y los ricos son los que
matan ó sanan á quien quieren. Mejor librado sale su mercé, que mas vale
tener que no desear.
— Ya por hoy me ha sacado Vd. bastante, y ha acabado con mi
paciencia, dijo D. Martin, volviéndole la espalda.
— ¡Jesus!... ¡y qué ipotismo gasta su mercé hoy! murmuró marchándose
la tia Latrana.
Aquel dia en la comida estuvo D. Martin mas campechano que nunca.
— Oye, Juana, preguntó al ama de llaves, ¿me querrás decir quiénes eran
los que componian aquella reana de gente que visoré en la cocina?
— Señor, la tia de la cocinera, el primo de Miguel Gil, una sobrina de mi
cuñada, la nuera del cochero...
— ¡Ya, ya, ya! y allí estaban por aquella regla de un convidado convida
á ciento. Tráeme este á la memoria, que andando Nuestro Señor por el
mundo, con sus apóstoles, le cogió la noche en un descampado. — Maestro,
¿quereis que nos recojamos á aquella choza? le dijo San Pedro. — Bien
está, respondió Jesus.
Llegaron á la choza; en la que habia un viejo que les dió albergue con
muy buena voluntad, y les ofreció de cenar. Estando cenando, llegó uno de
los discípulos.—¿Qué se ofrece? preguntó el viejo. — No hay cuidado, dijo
San Pedro, es de los nuestros. — Sea en buen hora, dijo el viejo, que tenia
crianza:—¿Vd. gusta de cenar? Le cortó un canto de pan, y el apóstol se
sentó á la mesa. A póco entró otro y despues otro, hasta completar los doce,
y con cada cual sucedió lo propio. ¡Vaya, pensaba el viejo de la choza,
paciencia! ¡cómo ha de ser! Un convidado convida á ciento. A la mañana
siguiente le dijo San Pedro al viejo: — El que has albergado es Nuestro
Señor; desea tú una gracia; que se la pediré en tu nombre. El viejo de la
choza era gran jugador de naipes; así fué que le pidió sin pararse, ganar
siempre que jugara: lo que se le otorgó. Cumplido que hubo el viejo su
tiempo, le dijo el Señor á la muerte que fuese por él. Cuando el viejo vió
llegar á la muerte, estuvo muy listo á seguirla; porque era lo propio que yo,
nunca habia sido pesado para nada. Al caminar por esos aires vió á una
pareja de demonios que se llevaban al alma de un escribano. ¡Pobrecito!
pensó el viejo, que tenia buenas entrañas; el Señor padeció por todos sin
escluir á los escribanos.—¡Eh! ¡cornudos galanes! gritó á los diablos, ¿se
quiere echar una manita de tute? Los diablos que se despepitan por una
baraja, como que ellos fueron los que las inventaron, acudieron como pollos
al trigo. — Pero ¿qué se juega, preguntaron los demonios, puesto que no
llevas dinero? — Verdad es, contestó el viejo; pero juego mi alma, que es de
las buenas, por esa que llevais ahí, que no vale un bledo: salís
gananciosos. — Verdad es, dijeron los diablos, y se pusieron á jugar. Por de
contado ganó el viejo de la choza, y cargó con el alma del escribano.
Cuando llegaron arriba, le dijo San Pedro: Viejo de la choza, ya te
conozco; puedes entrar. Pero, ¿qué es esto? ¿no vienes solo? ¡qué alma tan
negra viene contigo!
— No señor, no vengo solo; que la compaña dicen que Dios la amó. Esta
alma está manchada de tinta porque es de escribano.
— Pues alma de escribano, no entra en el cielo; cuela tú solo.
— Cuando estuvieron Vds. en mi choza, me soplaron otros doce sin
pedirme licencia: con que bien puedo yo hacer lo propio con uno; que un
convidado convida á ciento, dijo el viejo de la choza, metiéndose dentro
con su amparado.
D. Martin comió opíparamente. Al gustar el pavo de Pascua que estaba
perfectamente cebado con nueces é igualmente asado, mandó comparecer al
ama de llaves, á cuyo cuidado eran debidas ambas escelencias.
— Juana, le dijo, el pavo está que mejor no cabe, te doy la patente,
mujer, y este vaso de vino para que te lo bebas á mi salud y á la tuya, para
que el año que viene cebes y ases otro semejante, y yo me lo coma.
— ¡Que viva su mercé mil años! dijo Juana, tomando el vaso que llevó á
los labios.
— Mil no serán, pero una docenita me parece que han de caer
dejándome en pié; pues mas fuerte me siento que la torre de la iglesia.
Verdad es que se gastó el acero; pero queda el hierro.
Una unánime aclamacion de alegría y contento acogió estas palabras,
cual una bendicion del porvenir.
D. Martin en este instante se echó hácia atras en su sillon y dió un
ronquido.
— ¿Qué es esto? esclamaron todos levantándose.
— Que vayan por el santo óleo, dijo el Abad, abalanzándose á su
hermano.
— Que vayan por el sangrador, añadió Doña Brígida, desabrochando el
cuello de la camisa de su marido que estaba cárdeno.
Pablo se precipitó fuera del comedor.
No alcanzaron ni el auxilio divino ni el humano.
Cuando llegaron, D. Martin no existia; la muerte habia sido instantánea.
El pavo humeaba todavía sobre la mesa; en la copa de Juana estaba aun la
mitad del vino que habia contenido, y cuya otra mitad habia bebido á la
larga vida de su amo.
Es indescribible el desconsuelo, que como una lúgubre noche, se
esparció en la casa y por todo el pueblo. Era una afliccion tan profunda y
general como no pueden concebirla aquellos que no han visto á un rico, á
un poderoso, invertir sus pingües rentas, no en gozar, brillar, ni darse tono,
sino en obras de caridad y llegar á ser por este medio el padre y el amparo
de todo un pueblo humilde. Así fué, que la noticia de la muerte de D.
Martin no vino en los periódicos; pero corrió de boca en boca como un
prolongado lamento. En su entierro no hubo una larga fila de vistosos
coches; pero sí una larga fila de pobres desconsolados. Sobre su tumba no
se pronunciaron elocuentes panegíricos; pero vertieron lágrimas muchos
ojos, y oraciones muchos labios: no se le puso un elocuente epitafio
compuesto por un sabio latino; pero en boca de todos estaba este epitafio:

AQUI YACE EL PADRE DEL PUEBLO.

Doña Brígida estaba serena en su afliccion como competia á la anciana,

que viendo cortado el último lazo que ata su corazon á la tierra, se lo ofrece
á Dios quebrantado, pero entero.
El Abad no hacia esfuerzos por ocultar su afliccion mansa, profunda y
santa como él.
Clemencia y Pablo estaban inconsolables. Al pié del féretro del escelente
hombre á quien lloraban, comprendieron mutuamente la fuerza y riqueza de
sus respectivos sentimientos. Allí Clemencia deshecha en lágrimas,
apretaba entre las suyas las muertas manos de su padre, como si quisiera
comunicarle por sus poros su propia vida; y allí Pablo no hallaba palabras
de consuelo, convencido de que el dolor solo se alivia dejándole libre y
árbitro de desahogarse segun su inspiracion.
Al dia siguiente salió de su casa el querido y venerado cadáver ¡ay! no
para descansar, sino para ser pasto de la corrupcion, que no dejará de él sino
los huesos esparcidos, algun cabello y algun jiron de la tela que vestia,
ménos corruptible que el cuerpo humano... y ¡nada mas! Es cierto que el
alma voló á su patria; pero.., ¿acaso no se ama al cuerpo de las personas
queridas? ¿Quién no adora la venerable mano del padre que le bendijo?
¿Quién no los dulces ojos de la madre que le sonreian?
Pasaron estos fúnebres dias, venciendo el tiempo aquel desesperado
primer dolor, debilitado por su propia violencia; los ojos, cansados de llorar,
se cerraron; los nervios destrozados de su escitacion se postraron, y el sueño
obtuvo la primera tregua. Un hondo silencio sucedia en aquella casa á los
tristes gemidos; una inmovilidad austera á la febril y desatinada agitacion
anterior; todo allí era negro en el esterior como en los ánimos. Pero la vida
activa arreaba, y ya se decia: ¿Quién es el dueño de aquel caudal?
¡Oh triste mundo! ¡Cuál empinas los intereses materiales, que ni aun le
concedes unas treguas para abstraerse, y ensimismarse, al que es presa del
dolor, siquiera en tanto que lleva su librea!
Doña Brígida habia entregado al Abad las llaves del archivo y demas
depósitos de papeles. Este convocó una mañana á toda la familia; cuando
estuvieron reunidos, los habló así:
— Tengo el pesar de participar á Vds. que ninguna disposicion de mi
hermano he hallado ni entre sus legajos, ni en las escribanías. Así, pues,
habiendo yo renunciado ha tiempo á ser la cabeza de una casa que se
estingue en mí, y de los bienes que le son propios, tú, Pablo, como
inmediato heredero, reconocido como tal por mi hermano, entras desde
luego en posesion de todo.
— Estraño este raro descuido de mi marido (que en paz descanse), dijo
Doña Brígida, pues me consta que otras eran sus intenciones. Lo siento por
tí, Clemencia; lo que es en cuanto á mí, no me importa, resuelta como estoy
á reunirme con mi prima en su convento: con la viudedad que me señala la
ley, me sobra, y aun podré, lo que haré gustosa, partir contigo, hija mia.
Clemencia se echó llorando de gratitud en los brazos de su suegra; es
decir, de gratitud por la bondad y cariño que le demostraba, no por el
beneficio. En general, la juventud, y sobre todo la femenina, no concibe la
necesidad; para ella no hay desierto ni maná.
— No es necesario á Clemencia tu generosa oferta, hermana, dijo el
Abad. Clemencia, la hija de adopcion de mi alma, se quedará conmigo, si
quiere compartir la monótona y sosegada vida de un pobre anciano; por mi
muerte, cuanto poseo es de ella; mi testamento está ya hecho.
— ¡Oh tio! esclamó Clemencia; si despues de la cruel separacion de mis
padres tuviese que sufrir la vuestra, ¿qué seria de mí?
Pablo se habia quedado tan confundido al verse, despues de la completa
desheredacion que le habia anunciado su tio, dueño de todo, que no atinaba
qué hacer, ni qué decir, y quedaba completamente estraño al precedente
coloquio.
Por fin mas repuesto, y venciendo su timidez, dijo dirigiéndose al Abad:
— Soy testigo, — y testigo que no puede recusarse siendo yo el
interesado, y por lo tanto el solo que á combatirlo tuviese derecho, — de
que mi tio pensó dejar á Clemencia, su hija, por quien quiso y debió mirar,
no solo la mitad de cuanto poseia, sino el todo; el ocultarlo, en mí, á quien
se lo dijo, seria faltar á la honradez.
— Es que no hubiera podido hacerlo aunque hubiese querido, dijo con su
serena voz Doña Brígida que queria mucho á Pablo, y ante todo lo justo.
— Pensó sacar cédula real, repuso este.
— Eso lo diria, intervino el Abad, en uno de esos bruscos arranques, que
tenia mi hermano (en paz descanse) que eran siempre truenos sin rayos.
— Y esto lo confirma el que, si tal era su intencion, lo hubiese llevado á
cabo, añadió Clemencia.
— Lo que creo justo, dijo Pablo, y el único medio de que ni tu
delicadeza ni la mia padezcan, es que partamos como hermanos, Clemencia.
— Pero, Pablo, ¿porqué quieres que te agradezca un beneficio que no
necesito, ni puedo aceptar?
— No es beneficio; pero caso que lo fuese, ¿te pesa la gratitud,
Clemencia?
— Segun sea el beneficio que la motive, Pablo. Nunca me ha pesado la
que te tengo por la vida que te debo.
— Eres sutil, Clemencia, y me contestas con la metafísica de una
delicadeza fria, propia entre estraños, cuando yo te hablo con la buena fe
del corazon, como á una hermana.
— A ambos os comprendo y á ambos apruebo, intervino el Abad; pues
cuanto decís es hijo de un noble desprendimiento y de una delicadeza
loable. Pero para que no degeneren estas en tí, Pablo, en molesta exigencia;
en tí, Clemencia, en obstinado desvío; os diré para poneros á ambos de
acuerdo, que si á Clemencia aseguró mi herencia, es como á mujer de mi
sobrino, y como miembro poco afortunado de la casa de Guevara; que como
á hija de adopcion de mi alma, le he hecho dueña de tesoros de mas valer.
¿No es así, Clemencia mia?
— ¡Sí señor, sí señor! — contestó esta besando la mano del venerable
anciano, — y del que mas aprecio de todos, que es vuestro cariño.

CAPITULO XI.
Pocos dias despues, se trasladó Doña Brígida con previa autorizacion
eclesiástica, al retiro del convento, á pasar sus últimos años léjos del ruido
de la vida activa. Todo en lo demas permaneció en el mismo estado,
habiendo insistido Pablo con el mayor calor y cariño en que no se separasen
de él su tio y su prima.
Así corrió otro año pacífico y tranquilo como los anteriores; pero sin que
pasase un solo dia en que no tributasen un amante recuerdo y un fervoroso
sufragio á D. Martin, cuya memoria permanecia siempre viva en todos los
corazones como en el primer dia; ni una semana en que no fuesen á hacer
una larga y afectuosa visita á su tia.
Mas al cabo de este año, los dias del Abad eran cumplidos. Habia este
desde la muerte de su hermano, decaido mucho. El varon eminente sentia
acercarse su fin como los verdaderos justificados, sin ansiarlo ni temerlo.
Muchas veces miraba á su amada Clemencia con pena é inquietud, viendo
que sobre ella habian pasado los años, haciéndola al esterior una hermosa
mujer, pero habiéndola dejado moralmente la niña inocente, sincera é
inesperimentada que era á los diez y seis años, cuando casi al salir del
convento habia llegado allí. ¿Qué resultará, decia, de la amalgama de ideas
tan sólidas y determinadas con sentimientos tan vírgenes y frescos,
candorosos y sencillos? ¿Cuáles vencerán, si lucha hubiese? Estas
reflexiones le llenaban de temores, y fué el resultado de estos, que vino á
sentir, aunque por causas diversas y mas elevadas, los mismos deseos que
su hermano habia tenido ántes de morir, de dejar unidos á Pablo y
Clemencia. Así fué que, una noche en que se hallaba indispuesto, y
Clemencia liada en un abrigado pañolon, despues de haber cubierto la
lamparilla con un cristal bruñido, y cerrado con cuidado todas las puertas y
ventanas para que no penetrase el aire frio y húmedo de la noche, se habia
sentado en una butaca á su cabecera para velar, le dijo al verla tan tranquila
y ajena del golpe que la esperaba, porque nadie confía mas en la vida de los
enfermos que aquellos que mas los aman:
— Hija mia, creo que Dios me avisa con estos males repetidos, que
pronto compareceré en su presencia.
Estas palabras penetraron el corazon de Clemencia como agudas flechas.
— ¡Jesus, Señor! repuso con trémula voz. ¡Oh! ¡no digais eso! pensarlo
es una aprension, cuando solo teneis una afeccion catarral; y ¡decirlo... es
una crueldad!
— ¡La voluntad de Dios se haga, hija mia! pero prever todo accidente es
la obligacion de las personas prudentes; sobre la esperanza se confia, pero
no se labra. Yo pienso en la muerte, porque preverla es el modo de que no
asombre su imponente llegada, y porque es el de la muerte, el mas útil, el
mas grande, y el mas elevado pensamiento del mortal. Pero esta misma
consideracion me hace prever cuán sola quedarás, tú, ángel de mi vejez,
cuando te falte yo, tu compañero, tu guia y tu padre.
Las lágrimas que Clemencia contenia á duras penas, estallaron en
sollozos al oir estas últimas palabras.
— Si vos me faltais, esclamó, no quiero vivir.
— No pensara de tu juicio, de tu sensatez y de tu religiosidad, que te
espresases así, Clemencia mia, repuso el Abad. Esas son frases heróicas y
sin mansedumbre; y así en un todo opuestas á lo que nos enseñó el Hombre
modelo, en el que el mismo Dios se dignó constituirse. Pero en fin, llegado
el caso que te he indicado, ¿no piensas que seria prudente y decoroso poner
en mi lugar á quien como yo te amase, amparase y mirase como cosa
propia?
— ¡Oh! vuestro lugar, padre mio, nadie puede ocuparlo ni á mi lado, ni
en mi corazon.
— Clemencia, los sucesos, como los hombres, se suceden unos á otros
en el mundo, como las olas en el mar, sin dejar hueco ni vacío, por la gran
ley del equilibrio que rige la naturaleza, así la física como la moral.
— Pero señor, hay escepciones.
— Sabes, hija mia, que todo lo escepcional me es antipático, sobre todo
en las mujeres, tan dignas, tan bellas, tan femeninas en las buenas sendas
trilladas, como mal vistas, antipáticas y burladas en las escepcionales. El
querer llenar tu vida, que está en su principio, con la memoria de un padre,
es el sueño de un corazon amante: así deséchalo como tal, y procura no
apartarte de la ley que hizo á la mujer compañera del hombre.
— Tio... señor, ¿no me habeis dicho mil veces, que á la mujer casta Dios
le basta?
— Sí, hija mia, es cierto que Dios basta á llenar un corazon puro; pero la
vida en una mujer, sobre todo cuando es jóven, trae otras exigencias y
necesidades, ademas de las del corazon, para vivir tranquila. Necesita, ó
retirarse del mundo, ó un amparo si en él permanece: de otro modo,
Clemencia mia, sola, independiente, inútil, su estéril vida es escepcional, y
una piedra de toque en la sencilla y buena uniformidad en que gira la
sociedad humana. El celibato, hija mia, es santo, ó es una viciosa y egoista
tendencia que tira á quebrantar las leyes sociales y religiosas: no te
sustraigas á la santa mision de esposa y madre: te lo encargo... ¡te lo
suplico!
— Bien, tio, dijo la dócil Clemencia; si tuviese la terrible desgracia de
perderos, os prometo casarme.
— ¿Y porqué no en vida mia, para que yo bendiga tu union ántes de
morir?
— Pero, señor, ¿acaso no tengo mas que desearlo, para que se presente el
compañero que os prometo aceptar?
— Sí, Clemencia, no tienes mas que desearlo, para que te se presente el
compañero que entre todos no habrias podido elegir mas cumplido y mas á
propósito para hacer tu felicidad.
— ¿Pablo? preguntó en queda y desconsolada voz Clemencia.
— Pablo, sí, Pablo; que tiene el alma mas bella, el carácter mas noble y
el corazon mas amante y generoso. Fíate de mí, Clemencia; que harta
esperiencia tengo de los hombres: no conocí nunca otro mas aventajado que
Pablo, otro á quien con mas justicia se pueda dar el epíteto de hombre de
bien y caballero cumplido.
Largo rato calló Clemencia, y despues dijo con la íntima y entera
confianza que le inspiraba aquel varon indulgente y benévolo:
— Tio, yo habia pensado vivir siempre como hasta ahora, tranquila y
concentrada; mas si exigís que amplíe mi vida, que trueque mi libre y
descuidada calma por la austeridad de los deberes; que cambie mis flores y
mis pájaros por cuidados y desvelos, yo habria deseado que el amor hubiese
esparcido sus rayos entre la cargada atmósfera de las obligaciones y
desvelos que circundan el estado.
— ¿Y no puedes acaso amar á Pablo? dijo el Abad.
— No puedo amar á Pablo, señor, sino como al mejor de mis amigos,
despues de vos.
— No te cases, pues: tus ilusiones se interpondrian entre tí y tu felicidad,
como esos mirajes, esos prestigios, efectos de la óptica, que presentando al
viajero objetos ilusorios, le ocultan la senda trillada, y le sacan del camino
real de la vida que no ve por mirarlos. ¡Oh mundo seductor, falsa sirena,
que modulas tus cantos haciéndolos simpáticos al sentir de cada cual! Nada
logra contra tí la sabiduría humana, y tú solo eres el que te encargas de darte
á conocer. Sí, sí, una sola de tus lecciones prácticas alcanza lo que no
pueden todas las máximas de la sabiduría y todos los consejos de la
esperiencia. No te cases, Clemencia; no te cases ahora, pues no serias feliz
sino pasivamente, y tu felicidad satisfecha, cumplida y elegida por tí, es la
que deseo sobre todas cosas. No obstante, cuando llegue el dia en que fijes
tu voluntad, ántes de decidir de tu suerte, ¡acuérdate del último consejo y
del postrer deseo de tu padre! la pasion es ciega, la razon ve claro; si
luchan, haz que venza esta.
En conversaciones que aun tuvieron, dió el Abad á Clemencia otros
muchos consejos y lecciones sobre la vida y el mundo, todos impregnados
de los altos y sabios conocimientos que sobre ellos tenia el esclarecido
filósofo cristiano. Ademas, entre los de la vida práctica, le recomendó el
trasladarse cuando llegase él á faltar, á Sevilla, al lado de su tia la Marquesa
de Cortegana, no siendo decoroso el que se quedase á vivir con su primo,
que era un jóven. Añadió que cerca de la de aquella poseia él una casa, que
ya habia mandado renovar y arreglar para que ella la habitase; regaló su
magnífica librería á Pablo; distribuyó infinitas limosnas y dádivas; y así
pensando en todos, haciendo el bien á manos y corazon llenos, levantando
en continuas y fervorosas oraciones su alma á Dios... se fué estinguiendo
como un sonido melodioso, cada vez mas suave, cada vez mas dulce!... y un
dia en que con manos cruzadas rezaba, sus labios dejaron de articular, sus
ojos de fijarse con amor en los que le rodeaban... ¡y su corazon de latir á un
tiempo!
El dolor de Clemencia la postró en cama. Por mas que sea el carácter
apacible, el ánimo sereno y madura la razon, el dolor es en la juventud, para
el corazon, una calentura que no halla calmantes. Clemencia mandó que se
llevasen de su cuarto los pájaros que cantaban; que cortasen de su jardin las
flores que se abrian; echó en cara al sol el alumbrar alegre la tierra el dia del
entierro de un justo, y al cielo el haber dejado brotar en la tierra el amor, esa
flor del cielo que solo deberia existir en la eternidad.
Pero apénas estuvo repuesta su salud, y apénas pudo hacerse dueña de su
inmensa afliccion, cuando conforme á las indicaciones de su tio pensó
trasladarse á Sevilla.
Así fué que le dijo á los pocos dias á su primo:
— Pablo, nos vamos á separar despues de cerca de ocho años de haber
vivido bajo el mismo techo.
Pablo calló y bajó la cabeza; estaba prevenido á este golpe cruel.
— Réstame, Pablo, el darte gracias por tus nunca interrumpidos buenos
procederes hácia mí, prosiguió Clemencia, y decirte cuán penosa me es
nuestra separacion.
— Entónces... dijo Pablo que no acabó la frase.
— Voy á Sevilla, añadió Clemencia, — respondiendo indirectamente á
esta pregunta que Pablo no articuló, pero que ella comprendió; — al lado de
mi tia, pues así lo dispuso nuestro Santo Mentor.
— Clemencia, dijo Pablo, ahora, pues, es el caso, ya que vas á
establecerte, en que debas en toda justicia, y para no rechazarme como á un
estraño, recibir del mayorazgo que debió ser tuyo, siquiera la viudedad,
para que vivas con el decoro y en el rango que te corresponde; te consta que
no sé qué hacer con el sobrante que dejan las rentas.
— Para vivir bien y con decoro, Pablo, me sobra con lo que me ha
dejado nuestro tio; grandezas, ni las apetezco, ni las busco, ni las quiero:
sabes que me son antipáticas, quizá por una rareza de carácter. Mi padre me
enseñó las verdaderas grandezas que proporciona el dinero, las limosnas,
que son el lujo del corazon; la caridad que es la verdadera grandeza del
alma. Sigue tú su ejemplo, y todas tus rentas te vendrán cortas. No obsta
esto, Pablo, á que te agradezca esta nueva prueba de tu generosidad para
conmigo.
— Otra mayor tienes que agradecerme, Clemencia, dijo tímidamente
Pablo, y quiero que la sepas ántes de separarnos, para que si no nos
volviésemos á ver en esta vida, quede grabada en tu corazon mi memoria
con la gratitud que te infunda... porque en esta ocasion... la merezco!
Clemencia miró á su primo con sorpresa.
— ¿Mas aun que agradecerte, Pablo? esclamó.
— Recordarás, dijo Pablo, que mi tio quiso unirnos.
Clemencia se puso encendida como la flor del granado.
— Tú consentiste, prosiguió Pablo.
Clemencia bajó confusa los ojos, y calló.
— Pero yo, Clemencia, añadió Pablo... rehusé!
Clemencia quedó confundida.
— Y rehusé, Clemencia, prosiguió Pablo, porque tú hacias un sacrificio
grande en casarte conmigo, y yo uno cruel en negarme á ello; y quise que el
sacrificio estuviese de mi parte, y no de la tuya; esto prueba que te amaba y
sigo amando sin esperanzas, Clemencia; y el amor que vive sin alimento,
esto es, sin esperanzas que le sostengan, es de alta esfera, é inmortal como
el alma!
Hubo un rato de silencio. Pablo tenia la respiracion oprimida.
Dos gruesas lágrimas cayeron lentas por las mejillas de Clemencia.
— Esto te lo digo, Clemencia, prosiguió Pablo, cuya voz alterada salia
con dificultad de su pecho, porque nos vamos á separar y quizas para
siempre! A no ser así, no me hubiese atrevido á ello; pero he querido que ya
que no me tengas amor... me tengas gratitud y lástima!
Diciendo esto Pablo, no pudiendo por mas tiempo comprimir la
vehemencia de su dolor, se levantó y salió apresuradamente.
— ¡Pablo!... esclamó Clemencia profundamente conmovida.
Si Pablo hubiese tenido mas ciencia de mundo y mas esperiencia del
corazon humano, habria sabido aprovechar aquellos bellos momentos de
enternecimiento para ganarse un corazon que latia de admiracion y de
gratitud, subyugado ya por los nobles medios que subyugan las nobles
almas; pero su timidez le ataba, su modestia le desesperanzaba, y su
delicadeza le detenia; se paró un momento en la puerta del segundo cuarto,
y se dijo: ¿Y á qué volver? ¿A ser sobrepujado en generosidad? Entónces
cuanto he hecho pareceria premeditado. Nada grande se lleva á cabo sin
entereza: no la pierda yo al verla resuelta á concederme, arrastrada por la
gratitud, lo que movida por amor no pudo!
Y se alejó presuroso.
Pasada la primera emocion, Clemencia se serenó, pensó que de todos
modos, aun cediendo á los deseos de Pablo, que fueron tambien los de su
padre y de su tio, no debia permanecer á su lado, ni habitar ya aquella casa
sino como su mujer; sintió que la separacion que proyectaba por respeto
humano, debia ahora que Pablo se habia declarado, llevarla á cabo por
respeto á sí misma, y apresuró los preparativos de su partida. Pablo por su
lado, ahogado de pena, temiendo no poder ocultarla, y comprendiendo que
su presencia turbaria á Clemencia, se habia ausentado. De suerte que la
declaracion de Pablo solo habia servido para levantar entre ambos una
barrera, y para ahuyentar la franqueza de hermanos que hasta entónces entre
ellos habia existido.

FIN DE LA PARTE SEGUNDA.

PARTE TERCERA.
CAPITULO I.

Ocho años habia que faltaba Clemencia de Sevilla: ocho años suelen traer
grandes cambios en las cosas y en las personas; y debemos indicarlos ántes
de proseguir.
La Marquesa, á la que devoraba un cáncer el pecho, habia envejecido
mucho, y su habitual estado de latiente apuro, habia pasado á un estado de
decaimiento inerte, en el que, como sucede generalmente á los enfermos de
gravedad que conservan despejadas sus facultades intelectuales, no la
interesaba nada sino su padecer.
En Constancia no era ménos notable el cambio que se habia operado.
Desde la catástrofe que hemos referido y la enfermedad que de ella
resultó, que la trajo á punto de mirar la muerte cara á cara, Constancia habia
muerto al mundo, como dice una frase, la que por haber caido en el
monótono carril de la rutina, no ha perdido su grave y elevado significado.
En su enérgica fibra, solo un sentimiento á la vez profundo y esclusivo
podia haber reemplazado el que le inspirara aquel amor que llenó toda su
alma, como habria llenado toda su vida. Al borde del sepulcro condenó los
estremos del amor á la criatura, y pidió á Dios perdon si moria, y
conformidad si en la tierra la dejaba su voluntad omnipotente. La religion
hizo mas que darla conformidad; le dió consuelo y virtudes, desterrando de
su alma, despues de la desesperacion, la soberbia, la acritud, la rebeldía y el
egoismo, que por tanto tiempo en ella se entronizaron, reemplazándolos con
la mansedumbre, la benevolencia, la caridad, la paciencia; cual la naturaleza
produce flores odoríferas y cordiales en un crial, cuando una mano fuerte le
ha arrancado los abrojos y espinas que lo cubrian. Porque este es el efecto y
resultado de la vida, que unas veces con desden, otras con burla, pocas con
respeto, se denomina, dedicada á la virtud; este es el fin á que tiende. Y si
los que la llevan no siempre logran conseguir este objeto (puesto que eso de
ser estremadamente virtuoso no es tan fácil como les parece á aquellos que
desde que ven á una persona entrar en esa senda, exigen de ella la
realizacion del objeto á que aspira); si no siempre logran alcanzar este fin,
los que á él aspiran, decimos, tienen al ménos el mérito de haberlo
intentado, y la gloria de alistarse bajo la santa bandera, cuyo emblema es un
cordero, una cruz y una corona de espinas. Tienen aun mas: tienen el valor
de renunciar á la sancion del mundo bullidor, el de pasar por pobres de
espíritu en la brillante, ruidosa y desdeñosa legion de los denominados
ilustrados, el de hacerse condenar al ridículo y al desprecio por la soberbia
y acerba legion de los incrédulos é impíos, y solo contar con las calladas y
benévolas simpatías de aquellos que se esconden por no ser vistos, y callan
por no ser oidos, en una época que los burla con sarcasmos, y los desprecia
con insultos.
Constancia, no obstante, era de las afortunadas que logran el fin
propuesto; lo que era debido sin duda al total desprendimiento de las cosas
de la tierra que el infortunio produjo en su alma.
Nadie habria reconocido en ella á la elegante jóven que fué: su traje era
mas que modesto; era pobre: llevaba siempre un vestido de coco ó tela de
algodon negro, con pequeños lunares grises; cubria su garganta un pañuelo
de la India, gris y negro, prendido al cuello con un alfiler; gastaba en todo
tiempo manga larga y zapato de piel, y su cabello primorosamente alisado,
estaba sujeto con dos peinecillos sobre sus sienes, sin ningun género de
pretension.
Esta abnegacion del placer de agradar y de la satisfaccion de parecer
bien, es la mas heróica que en aras de la severa virtud puede ofrecer como
sacrificio la mujer; y este mérito solo se ve en España, sin que por eso
neguemos que en otros países haya mujeres admirablemente virtuosas,
profunda y severamente religiosas; pero este tipo de completo
desprendimiento de las cosas del mundo y de la vanidad, no se ve sino aquí,
por mas que se afanen en sostener que todos somos iguales. No; las
nacionalidades no se borran de una plumada, ni con un aforismo falso, ni
con algunas modas universales en el vestir. Dícese que la completa igualdad
es un resultado necesario de la ilustracion y de la facilidad de
comunicaciones; pero ¿no basta á probar la falsedad de este aserto, el ver
que los dos focos de ilustracion, que son al mismo tiempo, las dos capitales
mas cercanas, han sido, son y serán los dos mayores contrastes? En qué ha
mudado ese diario contacto las respectivas y marcadas fisonomías de Paris
y de Lóndres?[8]
Es para nosotros un enigma el móvil que lleva á muchas personas de
mérito y de talento á defender y aplaudir esa nivelacion general, y cuál es la
ventaja que de ella resultaria. Que un país sin pasado, sin historia, sin
nacionalidad, sin tradiciones, adopte un carácter ajeno por no poseerlo
propio, como ha hecho la América del Norte[9] adoptando el inglés, y la del
Sur adoptando el español, se comprende. Pero que se afanen por hacer esto
algunos hijos del país de Pelayo y del Cid, de Calderon y de Cervántes, para
desechar el suyo y adoptar el ajeno, es lo que no concibe ni el patriotismo,
ni la sana razon, ni el buen gusto, ni la poesía.
Constancia era pues, sin ostentarlo ni ocultarlo, una beata. Las beatas no
son perfectas, aunque las gentes del mundo exigen de ellas una perfeccion
de que estas se creen dispensadas; pero Constancia lo era, porque coronaba
sus demas virtudes con la tolerancia, que á algunas suele faltar, y unia al
estricto cumplimiento de sus deberes, una dulzura adquirida, la que en su
carácter fuerte y áspero era un hermoso triunfo obtenido al pié del tribunal
de la penitencia. De sus ojos serenos habian desaparecido aquellas miradas
ariscas y altivas que ántes le fueron propias, y de su tranquilo semblante el
aire esquivo y desdeñoso; sin afectar formas afables, las tenia benévolas y
dignas. Llevaba con la perseverancia de la consagracion, toda la asistencia
prolija que hacia necesaria la larga y terrible enfermedad de su madre, y sus
escesivas impertinencias con no desmentida paciencia. Si alguna persona
íntima celebraba su comportamiento, hacia grandes esfuerzos para
disimular la incomodidad que la causaban estos elogios que rechazaba.
En las demas personas el cambio no habia sido notable.
Sobre D. Galo habian pasado estos ocho años como otra infinidad de los
anteriores. Los siete mil reales seguian su curso inmutable, las pelucas
hacian su servicio periódico, el lente de plata no se cansaba de servir á su
dueño, ni este de servir á las damas. Todos sus compañeros habian
cambiado de destino ó de lugar; hasta la oficina habia variado de local; pero
D. Galo la habia seguido como un fiel perrito á su amo, ocupando su mismo
puesto y su misma carpeta, con los que estaba identificado.
Sobre la robusta arrogancia de Doña Eufrasia, habian pasado los años
como pasan sobre las plazas fuertes los vendavales. En ellos habia cobrado
muchas viudedades, sin dar la mas mínima esperanza al Monte-pio de
libertarlo de esta carga.
En D. Silvestre no habia mas alteracion sino la de haber adquirido su
vientre una posicion ménos prominente y mas rebajada.
Pepino habia tomado gran cariño á los Mercurios, y seguia cuidándolos
con esmero por propio impulso, como ántes por mandato de su ama.
Su tia recibió á Clemencia tristemente, aunque celebró mucho su venida,
y le hizo una larga y minuciosa relacion de sus padeceres.
Constancia demostró una sincera, pero sosegada alegría de ver á su
prima, sin que mediase entre ellas ni una conmemoracion ni aun una alusion
á la terrible catástrofe de la que Clemencia habia sido testigo.
A los pocos dias, con motivo de la gravedad de su madre, llegó tambien
Alegría, que con su marido y sus tres niños venia de Madrid, donde estaban
establecidos.
Alegría estaba hecha el bello ideal de la elegancia, un figurin de moda, el
tipo del supremo buen tono. Pero su vida agitada y sus horas desarregladas,
sus continuos trasnocheos y sus constantes escitaciones la habian destruido,
avejentado y adelgazado á aquel estremo que quita todas las formas al
cuerpo, toda la frescura al rostro y toda la lozanía á la juventud. Compuesta
y animada, sobre todo con la luz artificial, estaba bien; pero descompuesta y
desanimada, estaba como una flor sacudida y marchita por el levante.
Su marido, ademas de ser el tipo de la distincion y de la finura, lo era
ahora igualmente del buen marido y del buen padre.
Cuando Alegría vió á Clemencia, que merced á su tranquila vida, á su
feliz existencia, traia con el alma de una novicia la hermosura de una Hebe,
le dijo:
— ¡Qué lozanía! ¡Qué frescura! ¿En qué Eden has vivido? Ganas me
dan de ir á pasar una temporada á Villa-María, aun á costa de venir tan
anticuadamente vestida y peinada como lo estás tú. ¡Dios mio! ¡qué bien te
sienta el estado de viuda! y riquísima que me han dicho que eres!... ya sé,
¡un tio!... Oye ¿era jóven?... Ocho años de destierro te ha costado; pero en
fin, si estuviste como el raton en el queso, ¡anda con Dios! Hiciste bien en
estarte á la mira y aguantarte, porque, hija mia, el dinero, el dinero es el
todo; sin dinero ¿qué se hace? Vamos, eres la mujer feliz. Mira, no hagas la
locura de volverte á casar.
Clemencia habia oido toda aquella retahila, atónita, sin aun comprender
la malicia de ciertas espresiones; pero al oir esta última, y recordando en su
corazon la promesa que habia hecho á su tio, repuso á su prima:
— ¿Y porqué seria una locura volverme á casar?
— Porque perderias tu libertad, contestó Alegría con mas malicia que se
suele poner á esa necia y repetida frase.
— Pero, ¿qué clase de libertad es, repuso Clemencia, la que tengo de
viuda y no tendria de casada?
— ¡Qué candidez de niña bien criadita! La clase de libertad á que aludo,
hija mia, es la de poder hacer lo que te dé gana. ¿La tenias cuando casada,
mi alma?
— No se creeria que quien habla así fuese la mujer de un marido que no
tiene mas gustos que los suyos, y no hace sino mirarla á la cara, dijo
Clemencia.
— Eso no quita que la que tiene marido y tres hijos, esté aviada y
divertida. ¡Niños! esa plaga, esa carga, esas trabas, que acaban con la
paciencia, que destruyen el físico, que quitan el gusto y el tiempo para todo.
¡Oh! ¡son una calamidad!
— ¡Jesus! ¡Jesus! esclamó asombrada Clemencia. ¡Plaga, calamidad,
llamas tú á la bendicion de Dios, al dulce fin y objeto de la union del
hombre y de la mujer! ¿Sabes lo que dicen las pobres y sencillas gentes de
Villa-María? Hijos y pollos todos son pocos.
Alegría soltó una burlona carcajada.
— ¡Qué lástima, dijo, que no te hubieses casado con mi marido, y se
hubiesen Vds. ido en amor y compaña á poblar una isla desierta! Pero, hija
mia, la que no está por la vida patriarcal, esto es, las gentes que viven en la
era presente, como dicen los periódicos, llaman á los hijos cargas, y al
casamiento yugo. Así lo llama hasta mi beata hermana Constancia, sin mas
que anteponerle la calificacion de santo. Pero, si tan bien te parece el
matrimonio, mucho estraño que hayas estado ocho años viuda; por
consiguiente, no te admire el que no ponga mucha fe en tus palabras, ni te
crea muy sincera.
Clemencia se quedó asombrada de ver convertido en sistema y
formulado en reglas de mundo, un sentimiento que ella habia tenido, nacido
de sus desgracias domésticas, y del que su tio le habia hecho avergonzarse á
pesar de su inocente orígen, como de un sentimiento emancipado, egoista,
poco natural y poco mujeril: así fué que contestó sonrojándose:
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