The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change

By GlLBERT N. PLASS
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md.’

(Manuscript received August g 1955)

Abstract
The most recent calculations of the infra-red flux in the region of the 1 5 micron CO, band
show that the average surface temperature of the earth increases 3.6” C if the C 0 2 concentration
in the atmosphere is doubled and decreases 3.8’ C if the CO, amount is halved, provided that
no other factors change which influence the radiation balance. Variations in CO, amount of
this magnitude must have occurred during geological history; the resulting temperature changes
were sufficiently large to influence the climate. The CO, balance is discussed. The CO, equilib-
rium between atmosphere and oceans is calculated with and without CaCO, equhbrium,
assuming that the average temperature changes with the CO, concentration by the amount
predicted by the CO, theory. When the total CO, is reduced below a critical value, it is found
that the climate continuously oscillates between a glacial and an inter-glacial stage with a period
of tens of thousands of years; there is no possible stable state for the climate. Simple explanations
are provided by the CO1 theory for the increased precipitation at the onset of a glacial period,
the time lag of millions of years between periods of mountain building and the ensuing glacia-
tion, and the severe glaciation at the end of the C+rboniferous. The extra CO, released into the
atmosphere by industrial processes and other human activities may have caused the temperature
rise during the present century. In contrast with other theories of climate, the CO, theory
predicts that this warming trend will continue, at least for several centuries.

I. Introduction may have produced all the mutations of

In 1861,TYNDALL wrote that “if, as the above climate which the researches of geologists
experiments indcated, the chief influence be reveal. However this may be, the facts above
exercised by the aqueous vapour, every varia- cited remain: they constitute true causes, the
tion of this constituent must produce a change extent alone of the operation remaining doubt-
of climate. Similar remarks would apply to the ful.” A century of scientific work has been
carbonic acid diffused through the air. . . necessary in order to calculate with any
It is not, therefore, necessary to assume altera- certainty the extent of the influence of carbon
tions in the density and height of the atmos- dioxide.
ere to account for different amounts of heat Although Tyndall was the first to attempt a
gheing preserved to the earth at different times;
a slight change in its variable constituents
calculation of the infrared flux in the atmos-
phere, FOURIER (1827) had compared the
would suffice for this. Such changes in fact influence of the atmosphere to the heating of a
closed space beneath a pane of glass. The
This work was sponsored by the U.S. Office of calculation by ARRHENIUS (1896)of the in-
Naval Research. This article was completed while the fluence of carbon dioxide on the temperature
author was on leave of absence at Michigan State Uni-
versity, East Lansing, Michigan. Present address: Systems was the most extensive made during the
Research Corporation, Van Nuys, California. nineteenth century. In a series of articles
Tellus Vlll (1956), 2
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C A R B O N D I O X I D E T H E O R Y OF CLIMATIC C H A N G E 141

CHAMBERLIN (1897, 1898, 1899) presented in The method of calculation took into account
detail the geological implications of the carbon the many properties of the line spectrum.
dioxide theory. As a result of these early In particular it was valid for: (I) any arbitrary
articles, during that eriod the carbon dioxide variation from one s ectral h e to another of
P f
theory was probaby the most widely held the spacing between ines and of the line inten-
explanation of climatic change. sity; (2) any degree of overlapping of the
In recent years the carbon dioxide theory spectral lines; (3) the actual variation in the
has had relatively few adherents. Most authors atmosphere of the half-width of the spectral
have dismissed this theory with a remark lines with pressure. At the highest altitudes a
similar to the following quotation from correction for the Doppler line shape was
C. E. P. BROOKS(1951): the carbon dioxide introduced. Another correction took account
theory was “abandoned when it was found of the variation of the line intensity and half-
that all the long-wave radiation absorbed by width with temperature. The reduction from
CO, is also absorbed by water va our.” This beam to hemisphere radiation was made by
often quoted conclusion is base% on early, a new, more accurate method. Certain restric-
approximate calculations of the radiation flux tions on the path-length for this method of
in the atmosphere. The results of more accu- calculation were checked against the experi-
rate calculations of the radiation flux have mental data.
recently become available. Thus it seems The accuracy of the results were checked at
worthwhile to reappraise the CO, theory of each stage of the calculation. The upward and
climatic change. A preliminary report of these downward flux in the atmosphere could be
results has been given by PLASS (1953). computed with the same accuracy as the
Many authors believe that most of the world- original laborator measurements. It is esti-
K
wide climatic changes are caused primarily by mated that the ca culated upward and down-
variations of a single factor. In this article ward atmospheric radiation flux is accurate
simple explanations are given in terms of to w i t h 4 per cent; this figure includes an
the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere allowance for the additional corrections that
for many of the known facts about climatic must be introduced into the atmospheric
change. Although it seems significant that calculation. Further details are given by PLASS
so many facts can be explained by the carbon (1956 b).
dioxide theory, the possibility remains that
variations in solar energy, volcanic dust in
3. Temperature variations caused by changes
the atmosphere and the heights of the conti-
in COP concentration
nents may have had an important influence on
the climate at particular places and periods The upward and downward radiation flux
in the earth‘s history. was calculated by PLASS(1956 b) for intervals
of I km from the surface of the earth to 75 km
2. Calculation of the radiation flux and for three different CO, concentrations.
An extensive calculation of the radiation From these results the change in temperature
flux in the region of the 15 micron CO, band at any level can be calculated for a given
has recently been made by PLASS(1956 b). Re- change in the CO, concentration. It is assumed
cent accurate laboratory measurements of the that nothing else changes that affects the radia-
absorption in the CO, band by CLOUD(1952) tion balance when the CO, amount varies.
were used to calculate the radiation flux in In order to obtain the temperature change it
the atmosphere with the aid of the MIDAC was assumed that an additional amount of
high speed digital computor. None of the heat energy equal to 0.0033 cal/crn2 min
many a proximations were used that had would be radiated to space from the surface
ip
necessar y been made in earlier attempts to of the earth, if the average temperature in-
solve this complex problem. Accurate labora- creased by I’ C. Unfortunately this number
absorption data, recent theoretical work cannot be calculated accurately until a detailed
an the availability of an electronic computer study of the H,O spectrum has been made.
made it possible to obtain an accurate solution When a more accurate value for t h i s number
of this problem. is obtained in the future, all the temperature
Tellus VIII (19J6),2
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142 G I L B E R T N. P L A S S

changes given here should be multiplied by with height whereas the mixing ratio of
the ratio of the new to the old values. CO, is nearly constant with height. Even
With this assumption, PLASS (1956 b) finds if the H,O absorption were greater than that
that, in order to restore equilibrium, the of CO, near the surface of the earth in certain
surface temperature must rise 3.6" C if the frequency intervals, the H,O absorption would
CO, concentration is doubled and the surface decrease with height very much more rapidly
temperature must fall 3.8' C if the CO, con- than the CO, absorption. Calculations by
centration is halved. It is also assumed here PLASS and FIVEL (1955 b, Figs. I and 2) have
that no other factors change at the same time shown the magnitude of this effect. Thus,
which can influence the radiation balance. even a relatively short distance above the
If the CO, amount is doubled, ARRHENIUS earth's surface, the CO, controls the radiative
(1896) calculated that the temperature in- flux in the frequency interval from 12 to 18
creased about 6" C, while CALLENDAR (1938) microns.
obtained a 2'C increase. The values quoted In the second place, it is important to take
here are larger than other recent calculated account of the structure of the individual
values primarily because: (I) the weaker lines spectral lines. The various lines in the spectrum
far from the band center have an important of H,O and CO, occur at random with
influence and the entire frequency interval respect to each other. When this happens
from 12 to 18 microns was included in the there are theoretical calculations and experi-
calculation; (2) the pressure broadening of the mental measurements which indicate that the
spectral lines was taken into account, which combined transmission is nearly the product
results in the radiation varying approximately of the individual transmissions of the two
as the square root of the CO, concentration gases. Thus, changes in the CO, amount still
(PLASSand FIVEL, 1955 a) over a considerable cause appreciable changes in the transmission
portion of the frequency interval. of the atmosphere. In order to obtain a more
The actual temperature change due to CO, accurate estimate of this effect, a numerical
variations is slightly smaller than the results calculation was made with the average line
given above for clear sky conditions. When strength for H,O given by ELSASSER (1942,
clouds are resent, the CO, is less effective in Fig. 19) and with the assumption that the
fl
changing t e net amount of radiation from H,O lines occur at random with respect to
the surface. In order to estimate the magnitude the C 0 2 lines. The results of this calculation
of this effect, PLASS(1956 b) also calculated the show that the temperature changes at the
temperature change at the earth's surface for surface of the earth already given would not
variations in the CO, amount when the lower be decreased by more than 20 per cent because
cloud surfaces are at 4 and 9 km. When these of absorption by H,O. Since the temperature
values are averaged over a reasonable average change due to CO, variations would be
cloud distribution for the earth, the result is further increased by 10 to 20 per cent from
obtained that the average surface temperature the additional spectral lines outside the 12 to
must increase by 2.5' C or decrease by 2.7" C I 8 micron region included in Plass' calculation,
when the CO, amount in the atmosphere is this factor would at least [artly cancel the
doubled or halved. H,O effect just discussed. T us the values for
The usual objection to the CO, theory of the temperature change already given are
climatic change has been that, since the H 2 0 probably as accurate as can be calculated at
absorbs so strongly in the same spectral region the present time and take into account all
as CO,, the CO, can have little influence on known effects of the structure of the spectral
the infrared flux. Until a more detailed study lines.
is made of the H,O spectrum and its influence The radiation calculations predict a definite
on the atmosphere, it is not possible to in- temperature change for every variation in
vestigate this matter quantitatively. However, CO, amount in the atmosphere. These tem-
several considerations suggest that H,O has a perature changes are suficiently large to have
much smaller effect than has generally been an appreciable influence on the climate. A
believed in recent years. In the first place, the relatively small change in the average tempera-
mixing ratio of H 2 0 decreases very rapidly ture can have a large effect on the climate;
Tellus VIlI (1956). 2
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CARBON DIOXIDE THEORY O F CLIMATIC CHANGE I43
of respiration and decay of plants and animals,
rovided none of this CO, is permanently

1
Lst in forming new coal, oil and other organic
tonslyear deposits. At the present time, at least, the
Photosynthesis . . . . . . . . . -60 X IOO amount lost in this manner is very small
Decay, respiration. . . . . . + 60 X 109 organic
Formation of new coal world compared to the CO, used in photosynthesis
beds and other organic and can be neglected in a dmussion of the
deposits ............ -0.01 X 10" balance of factors from the organic world.
Let us suppose that the steady state absorption
rocks .: ....... ..... and emission of CO, by the organio world is
Released from interior of disturbed, for example, by a sudden increase
earth bv hot springs, in the amount of CO, in the atmosphere. The
volcano& etc.. . . . . . .I+ 0.1 x 109) I
I
- 1

I I
amount of CO, used in photosynthesis would
Combustion of fossil fuels;
clearance of forests;
I I I
cultivation of land . . . . . + 6.0 x IO@ activities
man's
increase, but in a very short time interval
the processes of decay and respiration would
also have increased. Since an average carbon
atom that has been used in photosynthesis
some geologists estimate that another period returns to the atmosphere from the biosphere
of glaciation would result from a drop of 3 or in about 10 years and virtually all the carbon
4' C in the average temperature. In order to atoms return in 250 years, it follows that the
explain climatic changes, it is necessary to factors from the organic world would again
understand the role of the various factors that be in balance in a relatively few years following
control the CO, content of the atmosphere. a change in the CO, concentration in the
In the next sections these factors are investi- atmosphere.
gated together with the CO, equilibrium During geological history the amount of
between the atmosphere and the oceans. CO, lost from the atmosphere by the forma-
tion of new coal beds and other organic
4. The COP balance deposits and by the weathering of igneous
Many authors have discussed the CO, rocks and deposition of carbonates has varied
balance in recent years. The fascinating book widely, as has the CO, added to the atmosphere
about climatic changes edited by SHAPLEYby such factors as the evolution of CO, from
(1953) gives many of their results together hot springs, volcanic vents, gas wells, and
with numerous references to the literature. other sources. Since the variations in these
RUBEY (1951) has made one of the most factors occur independently of each other,
extensive studies of the CO, equilibrium. UREY the net gain or loss of CO, by the atmos here
(1952) and KUIPER(1952) have givena dis- from these factors must have changecffre-
cussion of the many factors that influence the quently on a geological time scale. Although
amounts of various gases in the atmosphere. it is not always easy to deduce the net result
Estimates of the magnitude of some of the of these many independent variations for a
principal factors that influence the atmospheric given epoch, the mere knowledge that these
CO, concentration at the present time are factors have changed many times in the past
given in Table I. Most of these figures are has important implications for studies of the
known only to an order of magnitude; nat- climate.
urally, the estimates of different authors vary In recent years industrial and other activities
widely. An attempt has been made to average of man are adding considerably more CO, to
some of the more careful estimates for each the atmosphere than any of the above factors
factor. from the inorganic world (Table I). The
Estimates made by reliable scientists of the combustion of fossil fuels is adding 6 x 109
amount of CO, used in photosynthesis vary tons per year of CO, to the atmosphere at the
from 7 to 200 x 109 tons per year. Regardless present time. In addition such activities as the
of the exact value, in a steady state precisely clearance of forests, the drainage and cultiva-
the same amount of CO, must be returned to tion of lands, and industrial processes such as
the atmosphere each year by all the processes lime burning and fermentation release addi-
Tellus VIII (1956), 2
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I44 G I L B E R T N. P L A S S

tional amounts of CO, that are not included The following equations were used t o
in the above estimate. This is a large enough calculate the equilibrium between the gaseous
contribution to upset the carbon dioxide CO, and the carbonates in the sea water:
balance and to increase the amount in the
atmosphere appreciably. Some of this addi- [A] = [HCO3-] + ~ [ C 0 3 - ]+ [H,BO,-] +
tional CO, is used in photosynthesis, but as + [OH-] - [H+], (1)
already discussed, very little of the extra CO,
is permanently lost to the atmosphere since
there is a corresponding increase in the rates
of decay and respiration. Another art of this
1
additional CO, is absorbed by t e oceans;
this factor is discussed in detail in the following
sections. However, it seems probable that
these losses are small at the present time. If
this is true, then a major portion of the extra
CO, from man's activities will remain in the
atmosphere and the COP concentration will [HCOS-] IAcoJ
= --
increase for at least several centuries to come. 2K2) (4)
If this extra CO, is remaining in the atmos- I+[H+]
phere, the concentration is increasing from
this source at the rate of 30 per cent a century.
5. COB exchange between oceans and
atmosphere
Recent radiocarbon determinations (KULP,
1952) have shown that dee ocean water at
the latitude of Newfoun dfand was at the
surface about 1700 years ago. Kulp states in
SHAPLEY(1953) that "if this sample water
started near the surface in the Arctic, then the
rate of turnover of the oceans must be on a where [A] is the excess base, [Aco,] is the
scale of at least 10,000years." Thus, the amount carbonate alkalinity, Kgt is the apparent first
of CO, in the ocean and atmosphere must dissociation constant of boric acid in sea
come to equilibrium after a change in the water, K,' and K,' are the first and second
C 0 2 balance in a period of time of this order apparent dissociation constants of H,CO,,
of magnitude. aH,O is the activity of water in sea water, and
Several excellent studies have been made in Pco, is the atmospheric CO, pressure. The
recent years of the equilibrium between the remaining symbols have their usual meaning.
oceans and the atmosphere (SVERDRUP, JOHN- The values of the constants were taken from
SON and FLEMING, 1942; RUBEY, 1951; DINGLE, the tables in HARVEY (1945).
1954). We have recalculated this equilibrium It was assumed that the average ocean
with the additional assumption that the average temperature is 8" C, the pH is 8.17 and the
temperature of the oceans is determined by x0
chlorinity is 19.5 at the present time. With
K,' =0.76 x IO-',K21=0.73 x 1 o - ~ , a ~ , ~ = o . g 8 1 ,
the CO, concentration in the atmosphere. The
average temperature of the oceans at the cc,=0.0576 moles/l, it follows from (1-6)
present time was taken as 8" C; for half the that Pco,=3.ox 10-4 atm. Since this value
present amount of atmospheric CO,, it was for Pco, agrees with the average carbon
assumed that the average temperature of the dioxide concentration that was measured in
oceans was lowered to 4.2" C. This is the the atmos here at the end of the nineteenth
same change in average temperature that a
similar CO, variation causes on land. Similar
R
century, t e usual values for the above con-
stants lead to the conclusion that the atmos-
changes in the ocean temperatures were phere-ocean system is nearly in equilibrium
assumed for other CO, concentrations. today. From (1-6) it also follows that at the
Tellus VIII (1956), 2
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C A R B O N D I O X I D E THEORY OF CLIMATIC C H A N G E I45

Fig. I. Equilibrium amounts of CO, for the atmosphere-ocean system. The

.ordinate is the logarithm of the CO, pressure in the atmosphere; the abscissa
is the corresponding total C 0 2 amount present in both the oceans and atmos-
phere at equilibrium. The solid curves are for the CO, equilibrium only; the
dashed curves assume in addition that CaCO, equilibrium has been established
in the oceans. Each set of curves is given when the oceans have a volume equal
to 0.75, 0.90, 1.00 and 1.10 times their present volume. For the curves that
assume CaCOS equilibrium, the abscissa marked in the lower and upper margins
give the total CO, amount before and after CaCOs equilibrium respectively. The
CO, pressure today is marked by the point “P”. The points “G” and “N”
represent possible conditions when glaciers are forming and melting respectively.
The dashed line between “G” and “N” represents the typical oscillations in the
climate during a glacial epoch.

present time [CO,] = 1.41x 10-6 molesll; = 1.5 x I O - ~ ;0.5” C when Pc0,=0.7~x IO-~.
[HC03-] = 1.89 x I O - moles/l;and
~ [C03-] = Although the constants in (1-6) are functions
= 0.204x 10-3 molesll. of the temperature, the curves shown in
From the known volume of the oceans and Fig. I are insensitive to the particular assump-
the atmosphere it is found that there are tion that is made about their temperature
130x 1018 gm of CO, (in the form of carbo- variation. The equilibrium values of PCO, for
nates and dissolved gas) in the oceans and various total CO, amounts in the atmosphere-
2.33 x 1018 gm of CO, in the atmos here or a ocean are shown in Fig. I as the solid curve

phere-ocean system. In Fig. I the present

1
total of 132x1018gm of CO, in t e atmos- marked “1.00 Vol.”
These same calculations were repeated
value for the atmospheric CO, pressure and assuming that the oceans had 0.75, 0.90 and
the total CO, amount is marked “P”. 1.10 times their present volumes. The other
Next, the equilibrium value of PCO, was solid curves in Fig. I show the results for
calculated for a number of different values of these cases.
the total CO, amount. It was assumed in RUBEY (1951) has emphasized that the
a reement with the carbon dioxide theory of oceans must reach equilibrium with CaCO,
cfmatic change that the average temperature after a sufficient period of time following a
of the oceans wasIS.o”C whenPco, = 12x I O - ~change in the total amount of C O , in the
atm; 11.6” C when Pc0,=6 x I O - ~ ;8.0”C atmosphere-ocean system. If there is an excess
when Pco, = 3 x IO-~;4.2”C when PCO,= amount of CaC03, it precipitates; if there is
Tellus VIII (19J6).2
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146 G I L B E R T N. P L A S S

too little CaCO,, it dissolves and at the same range of values of PcO. without CaCO,
time accumulates from the rivers that flow equilibrium and is 7.81 to 8.51 with CaCO,
into the oceans until the solubility product is equihbrium. With CaCO, equilibrium, PcoS
reached. The equilibrium CO, pressure can can vary from 0.38 x I O - ~ to 20 x I O - ~ atm
be obtained when there is CaCO, equilibrium without the pH changing by more than one-
by solving equations (1-6) with the additional half unit. It is interesting to note that higher
requirement that marine animals (herring, for example) can
not tolerate pH changes of more than i 0.5
[Ca++] [C03-] = K'cacoa (7) and that lower marine animals are less sen-
The results of this calculation are shown as sitive, but many s ecies (sea urchins, diatoms,
the dashed lines in Fig. I for oceans with
0.75, 0.90, 1.00 and 1.10 times the present
f
algae) can not to erate H changes of more
than k1.0 (RUBEY,19517. This suggests that
volume. The curves in Fig. I for the CaCO, during the geological periods in which these
e uilibrium have abscissa marked at the bottom animals have lived that the pH of the sea has
9
o the figure for the total amount of CO, in
the atmosphere-ocean system before the
either stayed constant within these limits or
at most has changed very slowly so that the
CaCO, dissolves or precipitates to bring animals had a chance to adapt to their new
about equilibrium; the corresponding final environment. Thus the amount of CO, in
amounts of CO, in the atmosphere-ocean the atmosphere can change relatively rapidly by
system are marked on the top margin of a factor of fifty-three without influencing
Fig. I. The following values were used for marine life appreciably and even more over
K'c~co,: 1.3 x I O - ~ at 30°C; 1.8 x I O - ~ at long periods of time. Such variations in CO,
20" C ; 2.1 x I O - ~ at 10" C ; 2.3 x 10-"at 0" C. amount are more than enough to cause
These values agree with the measurements appreciable climatic changes.
of SMITH (1940) when they are corrected for
tem erature dependence. With these values 6. Explanation of climatic change in terms
R
of t e constants, (1-7) show that the oceans
are very nearly in equdibrium at the present
of the CO, theory
According to Bell (SHAPLEY, 1953), Willett
time with CaCO, for an average temperature believes "that the similarity in the change of
of 8" C and Pc0,=3 x I O - ~ atm. Apparently
the CaCO, dissociation constant is not known
accurately. A change in its value would move
the circulation pattern, whether the chan e in
climate be of the order of hundreds or t ou-
sands or tens of thousands of years constitutes
a
the curves in Fig. I to the right or left, but a powerful argument in favor of a single vari-
would not change their qualitative features. able factor underlying all changes". From this
Curves are given in Fig. I for different point of view, it seems significant that the CO,
volumes of the oceans, since the ocean volume theory can provide simple, straight-forward
decreases during a period of glaciation and explanations for many of the known facts about
would increase still further, if all the glacial climatic change. These explanations are dis-
ice present today should melt. Estimates show cussed in this and the following section.
that water having a volume from 5 to 10per
cent of that of the oceans was frozen in the a. Periodic oscillations f r o m glacial to interglacial
glaciers at the period of the last advance of climate
the ice sheets (FLINT,1947; SHAPLEY, 1953). Recent analysis of the sediments of the deep
This number may have been even larger during ocean floor by WISEMAN (1954) show 10
earlier great epochs of glaciation. Further, distinct temperature minima within the last
the volume of the oceans has probably changed 620,000 years. Four distinct periods of advance
during the recorded geological history of the and retreat of the ice sheets have long been
earth by the addition of juvenile water from recognized by geologists. These fluctuations in
the interior of the earth. the climate, which seem to be a characteristic
The pH of the oceans does not change by of a glacial period, can be explained by the
more than one-half a unit as Pco, varies from CO, theory. If the total amount of CO, in
one-fourth to four times its present value. For the atmosphere-ocean system is reduced by a
example, the pH range is 7.67 to 8.62 for this small amount from its present value, the CO,
Tellus VIII (1956). 2
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C A R B O N D I O X I D E THEORY OF CLIMATIC CHANGE I47
theory predicts that the climate must fluctuate sponding to an ocean volume of 95 per cent
between periods with large ice sheets and of its present value and the constant total
warmer periods that have relatively small or CO, amount of 123 x 1o18 gm. The CO,
no ice sheets; there is no possible stable state pressure is then 2.5 x 10-* atm and the surface
of the climate when the total CO, is slightly temperature rises to practically its present
less than its present value. value. The ice sheets then melt and the oceans
In order to understand this phenomenon return to their original volume. But then the
more clearly, let us assume some particular atmosphere and ocean are no longer in equi-
numbers that may represent conditions at the librium. After some ten thousand years, all
onset of a typical lacial period; none of the the ocean waters have been able to circulate
f
conclusions reache depends on the particular
values chosen. First we assume that if the
to the surface and the CO, equilibrium is
restored again at point G in Fig. I . The smaller
average temperature of the earth should fall CO, pressure in the atmosphere reduces the
3.8" C (various authorities give values from surface temperature 3.8" C and another ice
2" C to 8" C) that great ice sheets wouldagain sheet starts to form. These oscillations of
begin to cover sizeable portionsof thecontinents. climate would continue with a period roughly
Further let us assume that the average period of the order of 50,000 years as long as the
of circulation for the deep waters of the ocean total CO, amount in the atmosphere-ocean
is of the order of ten thousand years. It must system is 123 x 1o18 gm. There is no possible
take several of these periods for the atmosphere- stable state of the climate for this total CO,
ocean system to come to equilibrium after a amount. The lon period of alternation be-
change in the COPamount; the time to return tween glacial an! interglacial climates ends
to equilibrium might perhaps be estimated as when some factor in the CO, balance finally
of the order of 50,000 years, although this increases the total CO, amount in the atmos-
time may actually be ten times longer or phere-ocean system above 123 x 1o18 gm.
shorter than this. Under the assumptions made above, it is
Let us suppose that at the beginning of easily seen that these continuous fluctuations
a glacial period for some reason the total from a glacial to an inter lacial climate and
amount of CO, in the atmosphere-ocean
system is reduced 7 per cent from its present
P
back again would occur or any total CO,
amount from 117 to 123 x 101~gm. If the
value of 1 3 2 x 1o18 gm to 123 x 1o18 gm and total CO, amount should fall below I 17 x 10'8
remains fixed at the latter value throughout gm, then a permanent glacial climate would
the glacial epoch of some mdhon years dura- result (assuming only 5 per cent of the oceans
tion. After the atmosphere and ocean have froze) until the total CO, amount increased;
returned to equilibrium (point G in Fig. I), on the other hand, it would still be possible
the CO, pressure in the atmosphere is 1.5 x 10-4 to have fluctuations from a glacial to an
atm, just one-half of its former value. The interglacial climate, if the colder temperatures
average temperature at the surface of the froze an amount of water equivalent to more
earth is then 3.8" C less than its former value. than 5 per cent of the volume of the oceans.
This is a sufficient reduction in the temperature The time required for the oceans to reach
to bring on glaciation according to our hypoth- equihbrium with CaCO, is not known. In
esis. Let us assume that after some thousands the above numerical example it was assumed
of years the large ice sheets that have formed that this time is long compared to 10,000
reduce the volume of the oceans by 5 per cent. years. If &SI is not true, the dashed curves
Since the ice sheet can permanently hold only in Fig. I referring to CaCO, equilibrium
a very small amount of carbonates compared should have been used instead of the solid
to the same volume of ocean water, the ones. It is easily seen that t h i s would make no
remaining water in the oceans releases CO, to essential difference in the argument, although
the atmosphere in order to return to equi- a slightly greater decrease in the total COB
librium. amount would have had to be assumed.
After a further period of tens of thousands The conclusions reached above do not
of years the atmosphere and oceans are in depend on the particular numerical values
equilibrium at the point N in Fig. I corre- assumed in the above example. The calculations
Tellur VIII (1956), 2
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148 G I L B E R T N. P L A S S

have been repeated fo; a large number of there is a smaller than normal amount of Co,
different sets of values for the assumed param- in the atmosphere. More radiation from the
eters. In each case there always exists a upper surface of a cloud is able to escape to
range of values for the total CO, amount in space, thus cooling the upper surface more
the atmosphere-ocean system, such that the effectively. Calculationsby PLASS (1956b) show
climate continually oscillates between a glacial that the average temperature is lowered 2.2' C
and an interglacial stage when the total CO, and 1.3' C for the upper surface of a cloud at
amount is fixed at some particular value in 4 km and 9 km respectively, if the amount
this range. For various values of the parameters of CO, in the atmosphere is halved. This
these oscillations occur when the total CO, temperature change should increase the lapse
amount is reduced from 3 to 50 per cent below rate in the cloud sufficiently to increase the
its present value. If the total CO, amount is average precipitation significantly. Further it
reduced to 50 per cent or less of its present should be noted that the increased cloud
value, then a permanent period of glaciation cover further reduces the surface temperature
results until the total CO, amount again in- below the value calculated from the CO,
creases. theory alone. Both the decreased average
temperature and the increased precipitation
b. Increase in precipitation at onset of an ice age caused by the reduction in the atmospheric
It has been emphasized by many authors CO, content effectively promote the growth
that, in addition to lower temperatures, of ice sheets. Cold and wet climates should
increased precipitation is necessary for the occur together when the CO, concentration
accumulation of extensive ice sheets. In the in the atmosphere is reduced.
variable sun theory, a decrease in solar radia-
tion would be expected to decrease the c. Time lag between periods of mountain building
intensity of the general circulation and also to and glaciation
decrease the amount of precipitation. This There is considerable geological evidence
difficulty led to the ingenious modification that there were extensive periods of mountain
of this theory where it is assumed that in- building some millions of years before the
creased solar radiation causes glaciation by last two major glacial epochs. Tremendous
increasing the amount of precipitation, in quantities of igneous rock are exposed to
spite of the warmer average temperature that weathering by mountain building. By far the
results. most active zone for the disintegration of rock
On the other hand, the CO, theory suggests is the zone between the surface and the level of
that a higher level of precipitation may occur the permanent underground water. In moun-
at the same time as lower average surface tainous country this level is farther below the
temperatures. Although the physical rocesses surface than in flat country and there is a
that cause precipitation from a clouI f are not considerably larger volume in which the
completely understood, the radiation loss from active weathering of the rocks takes place. In
the upper surface of a cloud is known to be the weathering of igneous rocks carbonates
one of the relevant parameters. If the upper are formed, thus removing CO, from the
surface of the cloud can lose more heat by atmosphere.
radiation, the lapse rate in the cloud increases. After a period of mountain building, more
This increases the convection in the cloud, CO, is being taken from the atmosphere in
which in turn hastens the onset of precipita- the weathering of rock than before. This
tion. The lapse rate would be expected to be could easily change the CO, balance sufficiently
greater at night than during the day and more so that after a period of the order of a million
precipitation is observed at night (HEWSON,years, the atmospheric CO, would be reduced
1937). It appears that the radiation loss from sufiiciently to start a period of glaciation.
the upper surface of the cloud is an im ortant During the period of mountain building it
P
factor in the development of nocturna thun- might be expected that the CO, escaping
derstorms; in other situations the relative from the interior of the earth to the atmosphere
importance of this factor is not known. through volcanic vents, hot springs, etc.
During the period when glaciers are forming would increase. If this happens to an appreci-
Tellus VIII (1956), 2
 21533490, 1956, 2, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x by CAPES, Wiley Online Library on [09/03/2025]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
C A R B O N D I O X I D E T H E O R Y OF CLIMATIC C H A N G E = 49
able de ree, the extra CO, that is added to the CO, from the atmosphere as soon as the Pco.
f
atmosp ere counteracts the CO, used up in is greater than the e uilibrium amount. The
1
weathering and the onset of glaciation is post-
poned. In fact, some major periods of moun-
tain building have not been followed by
rate at which this a sorption takes
&'"
not known accurately, but it is proba ly true
that the surface layers can absorb only a
is

extensive ice sheets. A possible explanation small fraction of the extra CO, in a period of
would be that more CO, had been added to several hundred years. Thus it appears that

s
the atmos here from the interior of the earth
than c o d later be removed by rock weather-
In any case, when a glacial e och does
most of the additional COP that is released
into the atmosphere will stay there for at
least several centuries. Even if the oceans
Pfi P
o ow a period of mountain bui ding, the
CO, theory clearly predicts an appreciable
absorb CO, much more rapidly than has
been assumed here, the accumulation of CO,
time delay between the two events. in the atmosphere will become an increasingly
important problem through the centuries.
d. Injuence of man's activities on climate The known reserves of coal and oil amount

a
At the resent time the burning of fossil
fuels is a ding more than 6 x 109 tons per
year of CO, to the atmosphere. Other activities
to about 13 x 1oI8gm. After making allowance
for the growth of industrial activity it is
expected that this amount of fuel will be
of man such as the clearance of forests and the used up in less than one thousand years. If this
drainage and cultivation of land add additional occurs, nearly 40 x 1o18 gm of CO, will have
amounts of CO, to the atmosphere each been added to the atmosphere. This is seven-
year. The total amount added each year from teen times the present amount of CO, in the
these sources is several orders of magnitude atmosphere. Even if it is assumed that the
atmosphere-ocean s stem will be near e uilib-
larger than any factor that contributes to the
CO, balance from the inorganic world at the
present time (see Table I). Therefore, this amount w il
Y 4
rium at the end o this period, the tota CO,
l increase from 132 x 1018 gm to
additional factor has greatly disturbed the 172 x 1o1*gm. From an extension of Fig. I the
CO, balance. If all this additional CO, equilibrium value of Pco, is found to be
remains in the atmosphere, there will be 3 0 3 0 x I O - ~ atm corresponding to a temperature
per cent more CO, in the atmosphere at the rise of 12.2'C. Even if there were sufficient
end of the twentieth century than at the time for CaCO, equilibrium to set in, Fi
beginning. If no other factors change, man's
activities are increasing the average temperature
P'
shows that PCo, is 11 x I O - ~atm (nearly ourI
times the present value) and the corresponding
by I.I'C per century. This argument was temperature rise is 7.0" C. Since complete
first presented by CALLENDAR (1938, 1949). equilibrium between the atmosphere and
There appear to be only two ways in which oceans cannot be maintained when the atmos-
the excess CO, could be removed from the
atmosphere. More CO, is used in photo-
synthesis when the CO, concentration in-
pheric CO, amount is constantly increasin ,
the actual temperature rise will be considerab y
greater than 7' C.
s
creases. However, as already discussed, in a It is tempting to give an explanation of the
relatively short period of time increased rates recent rise in average tem erature over the
of respiration and decay bring the factors
from the organic world into balance once
R
entire globe in terms of t e increased CO,
amount in the atmosphere (CALENDAR, 1938,
again. Except for a small initial loss, no a p 1949). A great deal more data in the form of
preciable part of the extra CO, can be used accurate CO, measurements over a period of
up in this manner. time and temperature records for the remainder
Some of the extra CO, will also be absorbed of the century will be needed to prove or
by the oceans. Because of the slow circulation disprove this explanation. Many local varia-
of the oceans it would probably take at least tions, such as the extremely rapid rise in
10,000 years for the atmosphere-ocean system temperature in Scandinavia cannot be ex-
to come to equilibrium after a change in the plained by the CO, theory and are probably
atmospheric CO, amount. The surface layers due to changes in the general circulation.
of the ocean start absorbing some of the extra However, it is entirely possible that the general
Tellus VIII (1956). 2
3-6 0 1 8 9 6
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150 GILLBERT N. P L A S S

temperature rise over the entire earth is due are involved or more time is needed to accumu-
to the CO, effect. Furthermore, the influence late additional data. The answers to these
of the extra CO, on the climate will become questions can only be suggested at this time.
increasingly important in the near future as The temperature trend during the remainder
continuously greater amounts of COz are of this century should provide a defrnitive
released into the atmosphere by man's activi- test of the relative importance of such factors
ties. as CO,, variations in the solar energy and
volcanic dust in determining the climate at
e. Carboniferous period; glaciation in phase in the present time. The predictions based on
both hemispheres these theories are entirely different. The CO,
A change in any of the other factors that theory states that the average temperature of
influence the CO, balance can also influence the earth will continue to increase for many
the climate accordin to the CO, theory.
B
Unfortunately it is o ten difficult to estimate
the relative importance of the various factors
centuries, as the atmospheric CO, content
increases due to the burning of fossil fuels and
at speclfic times in the past. Nevertheless it is
certain that all of these factors have changed
other activities of man. The solar theor
predicts that the average temperature w' 1
decrease for some decades to come. The
Y
by large amounts during the earth's history. maximum of the ei hty year period in the
The amount of organic material being
tra ped in new coal and oil deposits and other
K
sunspot cycle probab y occurred in 1947. The
2
se iments may have been much greater at
certain periods of the earth's history than it is
average energy that the earth receives from
the sun including the ultraviolet should
decrease for a number of years, thus causing
today. This was presumably the case during the average temperature to decrease. A con-
the Carboniferous period when the relatively tinual temperature rise could not be explained
level land and many marshes created the proper by the solar theory unless measurements at the
conditions for the formation of large amounts same time should show an appreciable in-
of organic sediments. After a long period of crease in the solar constant. The volcanic dust
time this had the effect of reducing the amount theory predicts a lower average temperature
of CO, in the atmosphere-ocean system. It is for several years after a major volcanic explo-
perhaps significant that the glaciation at the sion that sends large amounts of dust into the
end of the Carboniferous appears to have been atmosphere. There has been no such explosion
the most severe in the earth's history. since 1912 when Katmai erupted in the Aleutian
Any large scale climatic variations due to Islands. Further attempts at verification of this
changes in the CO, amount in the atmosphere theory must await new volcanic action.
must occur simultaneously (on a geological There have not been sufficient measurements
time scale) in both hemispheres. Presumably a of the CO, content of the atmosphere in
few centuries or less would be sufficient time recent years to establish beyond doubt that
to equalize the atmospheric CO, amount in the CO, amount has actually risen since 1900.
both hemispheres following a disturbance in In view of the importance of the problem,
one. An exception might occur if one hemi- further measurements over a period of years
sphere were considerably more mountainous should be undertaken. The predicted rise of
than the other. The temperature drop would 3 per cent in 10 years could be detected with
be the same in both hemispheres following a measurements of moderate accuracy. At the
decrease in the CO, amount. Nevertheless the same time more data could be accumulated
mountainous land of one hemisphere could on the variation in CO, amount with Afferent
provide a favorable source for the glaciers, types of air masses. Simultaneous measure-
whereas they would be unable to form on the ments in both hemispheres could obtain in
relatively flat land of the other hemisphere. addition information on the rate of exchange
of gases between the hemispheres. The level
7. Unsolved problems for the CO, theory of industrial activity is so much less in the
In this section various problems are discussed Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern
for which either more study is required in at the present time that most of the increase
order to understand the various factors that for the Southern Hemisphere would be due
Tellus VIII (1956), 2
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C A R B O N D I O X I D E T H E O R Y OF CLIMATIC C H A N G E 151

to CO, originally released in the Northern would fall 6" C if the relative humidity
Hemisphere. changed from 100 to 50 per cent throughout a
Is the atmosphere-ocean CO, system nearly typical mass of polar maritime air. An accurate
in equihbrium today? Is the ocean in equilib- analysis of the effect of H,O on atmospheric
rium with EaCO, today? Since the CO, radiation has not been made as yet because of
amount should have been appreciably less at the complexity of t h i s spectrum and the
the time of the last glaciation ten thousand difficulty of making experimental measure-
years ago, one would not expect that the CO, ments beyond 20 microns. Considerable
equilibrium could have been restored in such further work needs to be done on the effect
a relatively short time interval. Nevertheless of H,O. The influence of the greatly reduced
the currently accepted values for the chemical amounts of H,O in the atmosphere in the
constants of sea water indicate that the oceans colder regions where glaciers form needs to
are nearly in equilibrium today. However, be evaluated together with the influence of
this conclusion depends on the values of several changes in the albedo due to greater preci-
equilibrium constants which are known only pitation.
approximately. More accurate measurements Why should the major glacial epochs of
of these constants would indicate whether or the earth recur at intervals of approximately
not the atmosphere-ocean system is in equilib- 250,000,000 years? What is the factor that
rium today. If it should be found that equilib- finally brings a glacial epoch to a close? These
rium does not exist today, then the curves in are some of the questions for which the CO,
Fig. I would be shifted somewhat from the theory can only suggest answers at the present
positions given. However, their qualitative time. According to the CO, theory, the
shape would not be changed and none of the 250,000,000 year interval between glacial
previous conclusions that were based on this epochs is connected with a similar eriodicity
figure would be changed.
If the theory presented here of CO, varia-
P
in the occurence of major periods o mountain
building. Thus the fundamental question that
tions in the atmosphere is correct, then the must be answered is to explain why the ma'or
reduced CO, amount at the time of the last mountain chains appeared when they did.
aciation means that the radiocarbon dates Also there are several possible factors in the
f or
l events before the recession of the glaciers CO, theory that can bring a glacial epoch to a
are in question. A constant CO, amount in close. We have discussed how the alternate
the atmosphere has been assumed in all the advance and retreat of the glaciers can be
calculations to determine radiocarbon dates. explained if the total CO, amount in the
Clearly some direct evidence is needed for atmosphere-ocean system stays at a constant
the actual CO, amount in past epochs. It is level a few per cent below the present value.
ossible that this may be calculated in the In order to bring the glacial cycle to a close,
future from experimental determinations of some factor must increase the atmospheric
the past temperature of the oceans and the CO, amount. A reduced amount of rock
rate of carbonate de osition. weathering due to the increasing flatness of
Besides CO,, bot? H,O
l and 0, have an the land as the mountain ranges erode or to
important influence on the infra-red radiation reduced weathering under the land covered
from the surface of the earth. A variation in by glaciers or an increase in the CO, released
concentration of any of these gases can change from the interior of the earth are all factors
the surface temperature. Estimates of the that would act to increase the total COz
effect of 0, on the surface tem erature have amount.
K
been given by PLASS(1956a). W en the maxi-
mum of the ozone distribution is at a lower
Some interesting evidence about the CO,
content of the atmosphere in the past can be
altitude, the surface temperature tends to deduced from the fact that plants grow more
rise because there is then a larger downward luxuriantly and rapidly in an atmosphere that
radiation flux from the lower, warmer layers has from five to ten times the normal CO,
near the 0, maximum. Simdar effects exist amount. Since plants are completely adapted
for H,O. An estimate made by Wexler in photosynthesis for the maximum utilization
(SHAPLEY,1953) shows that the temperature of the spectral range and intensity of the light
Tellus VIII (1956). 2
 21533490, 1956, 2, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x by CAPES, Wiley Online Library on [09/03/2025]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
152 G I L B E R T N. P L A S S

that reaches them from the sun, it seems strange the extremely severe period of glaciation that
that they are not better adapted to the present followed the Carboniferous period when
CO, concentration in the atmosphere. The extensive coal deposits were laid down; ( 5 )
simplest explanation of this fact is that the the world-wide increase in temperature that
plants evolved at a time when the CO, con- has occurred since 1890with a grQater warming
centration was considerably higher than it is in the Northern than in the Southern Hemi-
today and that the CO, concentration has sphere; (6) the variations in climate have been
been at a higher level during the majority in phase in both hemispheres.
of the ensuing time. This higher CO, con- Brief explanations of these changes in terms
centration would have caused higher tempera- of the carbon dioxide theory are as follows:
tures than today durin most of the earth's (I) If the total carbon dioxide amount in the
B
history. In fact, the geo ogical evidence shows
that the earth has had a warm climate for at
atmosphere-ocean system is reduced slightly
and held fixed at this new value, the atmos-
least nine-tenths of the time since the Cambrian pheric CO, amount is initially lowered. The
period. temperature falls sufficiently to start a glacial
e och with the following cycle of oscillations
8. Conclusions hp
t at has an average period of tens of thousands
The latest calculations of the influence of of years because of the slow exchange of CO,
CO, on the infrared flux show that if the CO, between the atmosphere and the oceans:
concentration in the atmosphere doubles the (a) the glaciers form decreasing the volume of
average temperature rises 3.6" C and if it the oceans by perhaps five per cent so that
falls to half of its present value the average they slowly release additional CO, into the
temperature falls 3.8" C. The pressure broad- atmosphere; (b) eventually the CO, amount
ening and overlapping of the spectral lines in the atmosphere is increased sufficiently to
is taken into account in this calculation. The raise the temperature enough to melt the
shielding effect due to H,O does not appear glaciers, thus increasing the volume of the
to be large. Thus reasonable changes in CO, oceans which now slowly begin to absorb
amounts can cause appreciable climatic varia- more CO, from the atmosphere; (c) after a
tions. further period of time the decreased CO, in
Many reasons for climatic change have the atmosphere brings lower temperatures and
been roposed, such as variations in the radia- the glaciers form again repeating the cycle.
P
tion rom the sun that reaches the earth, the This cycIe will continue as long as the total
amount of volcanic dust in the air, the average amount of CO, in the atmosphere-ocean
elevation of the lands and changes in the system is unchanged. If the total CO, amount
general circulation. It is entirely possible that is reduced by a large amount, a permanent
some of these factors may have had an appreci- period of glaciation can occur without oscilla-
able influence on the climate at particular tions. (2) The probability of obtaining precipi-
times and places in the earth's history. A recent tation from a cloud depends on the rate of
summary of the evidence for and against convection in the cloud. With a smaller CO,
these theories has been given by WILLETTconcentration the radiation from the upper
(1949). layer of the cloud can escape more effectively
However, it does seem significant that there to space. T h s increases the temperature
are many facts about world-wide variations difference between the top and bottom of the
in the climate that can be explained in a cloud. The lapse rate steepens and the intensity
simple, straight-forward manner only by the of the convection currents increases. This
CO, theory. Some of these are: ( I ) the cycles increases the probability of precipitation
in which the glaciers alternately advance and forming in the cloud. Therefore, increased
retreat in a single glacial epoch; (2) the in- precipitation is expected to occur when the
crease in precipitation as well as the decrease CO, amount is small and conditions are
in temperature that occurs when glaciers favorable for glacial formation. (3) The
form; (3) the time interval of several million weathering of igneous rock exposed by the
years between the uplifting of ma'or mountain new mountain ranges removes enough CO,
f
ranges and the appearance of g aciation; (4) from the atmosphere after millions of years
Tellus VIlI (1956). 2
 21533490, 1956, 2, Downloaded from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x by CAPES, Wiley Online Library on [09/03/2025]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
CARBON DIOXIDE THEORY O F CLIMATIC CHANGE I53
to bring on glaciation. This process may be same. Therefore changes in climate that occur
delayed, at first, by additional quantities of over longer time intervals must be in phase in
CO, released from the interior of the earth both hemispheres.
when the mountain ranges are first formed. Some of the problems that remain unsettled
(4) The removal of large quantities of CO, in connection with the CO, theory have been
from the atmosphere-ocean system in the discussed in the previous section. However,
formation of the coal deposits of the Car- the resent evidence suggests that variations
boniferous eventually reduced the CO, con-
centration to a very low value. ( 5 ) The addition
R
in t e atmospheric CO, concentration are
one of the important reasons for changes in
of CO, to the atmosphere by industrial the climate. From recent radiation studies it
processes and other activities of man is in- is possible to calculate with some confidence
creasing the CO, concentration of the atmos- the temperature change that must result from
phere at the rate of nearly 30 per cent a century any given variation in the CO, amount. The
and causing the average temperature to rise factors that influence the CO, balance are so
1.1’ C per century. Due to the relatively slow complex that the CO, amount must have
exchange of air between the hemispheres, the varied over a wide range through geological
CO, concentration may be increasing more history. The problem is to be able to determine
rapidly in the Northern than in the Southern the atmospheric CO, concentration for past
Hemisphere. (6) Over a time interval of geological periods. W e would then know one
several hundred years, the CO, concentration of the most important factors that determined
in the two hemispheres must be nearly the the climate of that epoch.

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in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Phil. biology of sea water. Cambridge, University Press,
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BROOKS, C. E. P., 1951: Geological and historical aspects HEWSON, E. W., 1937: The application of wet-bulb
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