EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the updated “Seismotectonic Studies and Seismic Hazard Analysis
(SHA)” for the Madyan Hydro Power Project (HPP). It is based on the prevailing guidelines of
International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) Bulletin 148 (2016) and the Building Code
of Pakistan (BCP) Seismic Provisions 2021. Guidelines of BCP (2021) are according to the
International Building Code (2021).
For Seismotectonic Studies and SHA, in this report an area of 200 km radial distance around
the Project is known as Madyan Seismic Region (MSR). For the MSR an updated Compositive
Instrumental Seismic Data Catalogue has been developed. The Compositive Catalogue
contains seismic data up till December 2022 and is based upon the following available
International and National Catalogues:

1. ISC Catalogue (International Seismological Centre, On-line Bulletin,

http://www.isc.ac.uk, International Seismological Centre, United Kingdom).

2. USGS Catalogue (U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey,

Earthquake Hazards Program, NEIC Earthquake Search,
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic.html).

3. Pakistan Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Seismic Data

Base for Northern Pakistan.

4. Pakistan Metrological Seismic Data Base.

5. M/S Nespak Pakistan, Seismic Data Base.

6. Waseem et. al. Seismic Data Catalogue from University of Peshawar,

Pakistan.

With the help of various recommended equations all the earthquake magnitudes have been
converted to moment magnitude Mw. For analysis the updated version of processing software
EZ-FRISK have been used with earthquake magnitude Mw and six attenuation equations
including four Next Generation Attenuations (NGA) of PEER (2014) Project. The attenuation
equations are also valid/effective for Northern Pakistan type of Seismotectonic setup.

The Madyan HPP and surrounding areas are situated in the Kohistan Province on the
boundary of the three world’s largest mountain ranges: the Himalaya, the Karakorum and the
Hindukush. This system is forming an active seismic belt where restless shallow earthquakes
of large magnitudes (Mw ≥ 5) and Intensity (≥ V), are been generated from time to time.

The Project is located in the Kohistan Island Arc which is sandwiched between Indian and the
Eurasian tectonic plates and with “High Seismic Risk”, corresponding to Seismic Design
Category (SDC) “D” of the International Building Code 2021. The Building Code of Pakistan
(BCP) 2021 has placed it in Zone 3 of significant seismic danger. A number of moderate sized
earthquakes have been located from the Kohistan Island Arc during the last 100 years.

i
Based on the seismotectonic setup and seismicity map the MSR has been divided into five
seismic source zones. Seismic parameters for the seismic source zones were computed for
further analysis.

Both Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Deterministic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (DSHA) have been performed to determine the expected ground motions at the
Project site.

The resultant PSHA computations obtained for the Weir and underground power house are:

Annual Return Peak Ground Peak Ground

Frequency of Period Acceleration Acceleration
Exceedance (years) (g), horizontal (g), vertical
0.007 145 0.23 0.15
0.002 475 0.34 0.23
0.001 945 0.43 0.29
0.0004 2475 0.56 0.37
0.0003 3000 0.59 0.39
0.0002 5000 0.68 0.45
0.0001 10000 0.80 0.53

The resultant PSHA computations obtained for the above ground Appurtenant Structures is:

Annual Return Peak Ground Peak Ground

Frequency of Period Acceleration Acceleration
Exceedance (years) (g), (g), vertical
horizontal
0.007 145 0.26 0.17
0.002 475 0.39 0.26
0.001 945 0.49 0.33
0.0004 2475 0.64 0.43
0.0003 3000 0.67 0.45
0.0002 5000 0.77 0.51
0.0001 10000 0.92 0.61

The main seismotectonic features considered critical for the DSHA of the Madyan HPP are:

 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),

 Kohistan Fault,
 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), and
 Shandur Fault

ii
The resultant DSHA computations are:

Tectonic Feature Maximum Closest Average Average

Magnitude Distance Horizontal Vertical
Mw To Surface
Trace km g g
Main Karakorum 7.8 73 0.07 0.05
Thrust (MKT)
Kohistan Fault 7.3 30 0.13 0.09

Main Mantle Thrust 7.5 37 0.20 0.13

(MMT)
Shandur Fault 7.0 33 0.10 0.07

Based on the seismotectonic setup, the hydrological reports on floods and the ICOLD
guidelines, the Madyan HPP is categorized as a Project of “Moderate Risk Potential”
classification. Therefore, the recommended Seismic Design Parameters are:

Selected Recommended Recommended

Design g horizontal g vertical
Parameter
MCE Fault = Shandur Fault = Shandur
Mw = 7.0 Mw = 7.0
0.59 0.39
SEE 0.59 0.39
OBE 0.23 0.15
DBE for underground 0.34 0.23
Power House & other
Appurtenant Structures
DBE for above ground 0.39 0.26
Appurtenant Structures

The response spectra for 145-year return period are applicable for OBE, response spectra for
475-year return period are applicable for DBE for appurtenant structures and response spectra
for 3,000-year return period is applicable for the SEE

For seismic safety monitoring purpose Strong Motion Accelerographs (SMA’s) must be
installed at the Weir, Tunnel, Power House sites and free field sites of rock and alluvium. The
SMA’s may be purchased from World renowned Companies, like M/S Kinemetrics Inc USA
and M/S GeoSIG Inc, Switzerland. Installation of SMA’s is required to be carried out under the
supervision of an experienced Consultant Seismologist.

Acceleration Time Histories scaled for SSE, DBE and OBE have been included in this report.

iii
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
No.
1.0 GENERAL 1

2.0 PREVIOUS SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS REPORT (2009) 2

3.0 NEED FOR UPDATED SEISMIC HAZARD STUDY 2

4.0 METHODOLOGY OF UPDATED SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (2023) 4

5.0 SEISMOTECTONIC AND GEOLOGICAL SETTING 5

5.1 The Eurasian Plate 6

5.2 The Kohistan Island Arc 7

5.3 The Indian Plate 13

5.4 Local Geological Setting 14

6.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK 15

6.1 Regional Tectonic 15

6.2 Kohistan magmatic Arc 17
6.3 Northwest Himalayan Fold-and-Thrust Belt 18

7.0 MAJOR TECTONIC FEATURES 18

7.1 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) 21

7.2 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) 21

7.3 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) 22

7.4 The Kohistan Fault 22
7.5 Panjal-Khairabad Thrust 23
7.6 Local Tectonic Features 23

8.0 BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN 24

8.1 Soil Profile Types 25

8.2 Site Foundation Condition 27

9.0 HISTORICAL SEISMICITY AND EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE 28

9.1 Significant Earthquakes 29

iv
10.0 INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES 32
10.1 NESPAK Earthquake Catalogue 33

10.2 Sarfraz Khan et al. (2018) Earthquake Catalogue 33

10.3 Pakistan WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System 34

Earthquake Catalogue

10.4 Focal Depth and Earthquake Catalogue 34

11.0 CATALOGUE COMPILATION 35

11.1 Catalogue Compilation and Magnitude Conversion 35

11.2 Declustering of Earthquake Catalogue 36

12.0 ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE 37

12.1 Local Seismicity and Focal Depth and Mechanism 39

13.0 SEISMIC SOURCE CHACTERIZATION 39

13.1 Areal Seismic Sources 39

14.0 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS 42

14.1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 43

14.2 Earthquake Recurrence Model 44
14.3 Computations of Vs30 45
14.4 Attenuation Relationships 45
14.5 Results Of PSHA 45
14.6 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis 47

15.0 SEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS 50

15.1 Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) 50

15.2 Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) 51
15.3 Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) 51
15.4 Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) 51
15.5 Selection of Seismic Design Parameters (SDP) 52
15.6 Uniform Hazard Spectra 53

v
16.0 ACCELERATION TIME HISTORIES 55

17.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59

REFRENCES

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure-1. Seismotectonic Location of Madyan HPP.

Figure-2 Seismotectonic Setup of Northern Pakistan.

Figure-3 Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan.

Figure-4 Structural/Lithological Sketch map of Kohistan

Figure-5. Generalized Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan

Figure-6. Geological Map of Kohistan Northern Pakistan displaying major faults

Figure-7. Seismotectonic Fault System of Northern Pakistan including Kohistan and Swat.

Figure-8. Shandur Thrust Fault.

Figure-9 Building Code of Pakistan (2021) Map for Return Period = 475 years.

Figure-10 Seismotectonic Map of Madyan Seismic Region.

Figure-11 Fault Plane Solutions of Significant Events of Kohistan Region.

Figure-12 Seismic Source Zones in Madyan Seismic Region.

Figure-13 Total Hazard for Weir and underground Power House site obtained by PSHA.

Figure-14 Total Hazard for overhead Appurtenant Structures obtained by PSHA.

Figure-15 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Weir and underground Power House.by PSHA.

Figure-16 Uniform Hazard Spectra for overhead Appurtenant Structures obtained by PSHA.

Figure-17 Acceleration Time Histories scaled for SEE, DBE and OBE.

vi
1.0 GENERAL

This report deals with the updated “Seismotectonic Studies (SS) and site-specific Seismic
Hazard Analysis (SHA)”, for the construction of various “Critical Structures” of the 207 MW
Madyan Hydro Power Project (HPP), located along the Swat River, approximately 200 kms
NE off Peshawar. The geographical coordinates of “Critical Structures” are:

SNO Critical Structure Geographical Coordinate

Lat. N Lon. E
1 Weir 35.255 72.597
2 Power House 35.155 72.534

The Madyan HPP is situated in the collision zone of the Indian and Eurasian plates,
surrounded by mapped thrust faults (Figure-1), where persistent shallow depth earthquakes
of large magnitudes (Mw ≥ 4.5) and Intensity (≥ V), are been generated from time to time. In
the vicinity of Madyan HPP area quite a number of seismic events with Mw ≥ 3.0 are been
located. Thus, the Project could face a severe earthquake hazard potential. The Geological
Survey of Pakistan has placed the Project area in the “Serious Seismic Danger Zone”.
According to the Building Code of Pakistan, Seismic Provisions (2021), the Project area falls
in Zone-3. Moreover, within the scenario of the October 08, 2005, Kashmir-Hazara earthquake
of Pakistan it becomes important to be very cautious regarding the Seismic Hazard Analysis
(SHA) for such an important Project.

Figure-1 Seismotectonic Location of Madyan HPP, from Brian Windley 2013.

1
2.0 PREVIOUS SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (2009)

1. It is mainly based on the ICOLD guidelines of Bulletin 72 (1989).

2. Compositive seismic data catalogue covering a period up to January 2008 is based on

online data of the International Seismic Center (ISC) and United States Geological
Survey. No local seismic data catalogue has been utilized/consulted.

3. Based on the seismicity around the Madyan HPP, an area of 200 km radial distance
has been considered for analysis. The area has been divided into ten seismic source
zones (SSZ). The technical justification development of these SSZ has not been
provided.

4. In the area that is covering most part the Kohistan Island Arc, there are two SSZ, one
western part with predominantly lower magnitude seismic events and the other eastern
part with predominantly higher magnitude seismic events. The Madyan HPP is located
in the western part with lower magnitude seismic event zone. Therefore, this division
of SSZ have resulted in lower values of resulting Seismic design parameters (SDP).

5. The 2009 report contains the Seismic Design Parameters (SDP) which were computed
and based only on PHSA.

6. The report does not mention the V S30 value utilizes for PSHA.

7. In the PSHA following attenuation equations that were also valid on the seismotectonic
conditions of Northern Pakistan have been used:

i. Ambraseys et al. (2005),

ii. Campbell & Bozorgnia (2003) and
iii. Boore et al. (1997)

8. The results of PSHA are given in the form of Total Hazard charts which shows curves
for different attenuation equations but do not show the mean value curves.

9. PGA values of Power House site have not been provided.

3.0 NEED FOR UPDATED UPDATED SEISMIC HAZARD STUDY

1. ICOLD guidelines for computations of seismic design parameters have been updated
and published in Bulletin 148 (2016). Therefore, the updated study is based on the
latest ICOLD guidelines.

2. For an area of 200 km radial distance around the Madyan HPP, a Compositive Seismic
Data Catalogue has been developed with earthquake data updated till 2022 as lot of
seismicity have been recorded after 2008 with the improvement of seismic monitoring

2
 network in Pakistan after 2005 earthquake. The Compositive Seismic Data Catalogue
is based on the following sources:

I. ISC Catalogue (International Seismological Centre, On-line Bulletin,

http://www.isc.ac.uk, International Seismological Centre, United Kingdom).

II. USGS Catalogue (U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey,
Earthquake Hazards Program, NEIC Earthquake Search,
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic.html).

III. Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Seismic Data
Base for Northern Pakistan.

IV. Pakistan Meteorological Department Seismic Data Base.

V. M/S NESPAK Seismic Data Base.

VI. Sarfraz Khan et. al., (2018) Seismic Data Catalogue from University of
Peshawar, Pakistan.

3. Based on the seismotectonic setup and seismicity of northern Pakistan region around
Madyan HPP, the area has been divided into five seismic area source zones.

4. Both Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Deterministic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (DSHA) have been performed to determine the expected ground motions at
the Project site.

5. Based upon the borehole logs drilled in the Project area, VS30 = 750 m/sec has been
computed for Weir and underground Power House. While VS30 = 600 m/sec has been
computed for all above ground Appurtenant Structures in Seismic Hazard Analysis.

6. Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) West2 equations of PEER Project (2014) which
are based on worldwide data of shallow crustal earthquakes and are also valid for
northern Pakistan seismotectonic conditions have been used.

i. Abrahamson et al., 2014.

ii. Boore et al., 2014.
iii. Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014.
iv. Idriss, 2014.

In addition, attenuation equations developed for subduction zone have been used for
the very active deep Hindukush zone present in the northwest of the project area.

v. Zhao et. al. Japan, 2006

vi. Youngs et al., 1997.

7. For the resultant mean values obtained from PSHA, Seismic Design Parameters have
been recommended.

8. Separate Seismic Design Parameters for underground Power House site have been
computed and recommended.

3
4.0 METHODOLOGY OF UPDATED SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (2023)

Seismotectonic studies (SS) and Site-specific Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA), for the
construction and safety of Important Critical Structures, in the Project area, have been carried
out in accordance with the guidelines contained in International Committee for Large Dams
(ICOLD) Bulletin 148, issued in 2016 and the Building Code of Pakistan (BCP-2021). The
Building Code of Pakistan 2021 is in lines with the International Building Code 2021.

The main points of the methodology adopted for the SS and SHA are briefly described below:

1. Identification of physiographic and seismotectonic region where the Madyan HPP is

located. Geological history of the Project area. Description of geologic formations, rock
types and soil formations of the Project area.

2. Description of all the major seismotectonic features present in the Madyan Seismic
Region (MSR). An area of 200 km radial distance off the Project is defined as MSR.
3. Collection and review of available data about regional geology and tectonic setting of
the area covering the MSR. Preparation of GIS based tectonic map, using available
information, to show the major tectonic features of the MSR.
4. Preparation of a historical and instrumental seismicity Catalogue for the Project Region
incorporating data from different local and international sources. From this set of data,
a Compositive Earthquake Catalogue for MSR have been developed.
5. The instrumental seismicity catalogue contains parameters of all the seismic events
located in the MSR from January 1960 through December 2022.
6. Catalogue to be plotted on a map through GIS based software.
7. Generate a GIS based seismotectonic map by combining the above two maps for the
definition of all the potential earthquake sources effecting the study area.
8. Keeping in view geology and seismicity of the area, the MSR is divided into seismic
source zones (SSZ). Computation of recurrence parameters for each SSZ.
9. Site characterization study using:
 Available surface geologic maps of the study area.
 Available geotechnical borehole and Standard Penetration Test data’s, of the study
area (to be collected with the help of Consultants).
 Estimation of depth to Engineering bedrock using available borehole and SPT data.

10. Both Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis is performed.

11. Recommendation of Seismic Design Parameters (SDP), in accordance with ICOLD
guidelines for selecting seismic design parameters for large Dams Bulletin 148 (2016).
12. Recommendation of Strong Motion Accelerographs for seismic safety monitoring of
the critical Structures of Madyan HPP.

4
5.0 SEISMOTECTONIC AND GEOLOGICAL SETTING

The accretion of the Indian Plate after north-directed subduction of the oceanic crust with the
Kohistan Island Arc/Asian Craton occurred about 20 million years ago (Ma) ago along a suture
stretching from western Europe through the Alps, Greece, Pakistan, the Himalayas, and China
before turning south towards Indonesia. This continental collision zone has since changed
character into a fold-and-thrust belt (e.g., in the Pakistan region, the continent–continent
collision produced several major thrusts and associated strike-slip fault zones) (Figure-2).

Structural geometry shows that the duplex stacks in nappe structures became younger away
from the suture zone in the opposite direction that the footwall plate is moving. Thus, for the
Pakistan region, the older thrusts are near the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) or suture zone and
the youngest thrusts are farther south along the Salt Range Thrust, well within the India plate.
The Indian subcontinent has been colliding with the Eurasian subcontinent over the last 30 to
40 million years (Aitchison et al., 2007). During this period, the continental lithosphere longer
than 2,000 km has been shortened into the massive mountain ranges and elevated plateaus
of central Asia (e.g., Molnar and Topponier, 1975; Bollinger et al., 2004).

The Kohistan Island arc province has been known for instabilities due to moderate to major
earthquakes. Seismically active fault lines are located in this region that could make the
population vulnerable to this disaster. The root cause of most seismic events can be related
to tectonic processes in the upper portions of the earth crust. The earth crust is divided into
several plates. Build-up of strain/strain within these plates or margins is due to the
deformations taking place as results of seismic activities along or relative to the interfaces or
margins of the plates.

The seismotectonic setting of Northern Pakistan is characterized by the interactions of three

principal crustal plates/units:

• the Eurasian Plate

• the Kohistan Island Arc
• the Indian Plate

These plates/units have distinctly different lithology and structural settings and are separated
by two major branches of the Indus suture (Tahirkheli, et al., 1979; Treloar, et al., 1990; Khan,
et al., 1997). Both sutures are marked by the occurrence of a mélange including ultramafic
rocks, the southern one also having a wedge of garnet granulates considered to have
recrystallized at a depth of more than 40 km.

The rocks making up the Kohistan sequence, between the two sutures, are predominantly
calc-alkaline plutonic and volcanic with subsidiary volcano sedimentary and sedimentary
rocks. Tahirkheli, et al., (1979) have suggested that the Kohistan sequence represents the
crust and uppermost mantle of an extended island arc turned on end during the collision of
the Indian-Asian Landmasses. Later studies have shown that the structure of the area is too
complex for such a simple interpretation and requires a detailed analysis before final
conclusions can be reached about its nature (Coward, et al., 1986).

5
5.1 The Eurasian Plate

The physiographic divisions of the southern part of the Eurasian Plate in northern Pakistan
include the Northern Karakorum Tethyan Zone, the Karakorum Batholith, and Volcanic and
Metasediments South of the Karakorum Batholith. The Eurasian Plate is bordered to the south
by the Northern Suture, which consists of an almost chaotic arrangement of large lenses, each
several kilometres long and several tens of meters wide, of highly varied sedimentary,
metamorphic, and igneous rocks in a matrix of chloritoid slates.

The whole assemblage has the appearance of a major mélange with no simple repetitions, as
expected in an imbricate zone. This tectonic zone is considered to mark the suture between
the Kohistan sequence to the south and the Eurasian Plate to the north (Figure-2). There is
no evidence of blue-schists, of obducted high pressure granulite’s or of an ophiolite, but
instead large tectonic lenses of a mélange.

Figure 2. Seismotectonic Setup of Northern Pakistan (Monalisa et al., 2005)

6
In the section from Hunza to Chalt, there is an almost chaotic arrangement of large lenses,
each several kilometers long and several tens of meters wide, of limestone, sandstone,
conglomerate and mafic and ultramafic rocks in a matrix of chloritoid slates. The basic rocks
with prominent volcanic breccias and greenschists are rich in epidote, chlorite and actinolite.
The ultra-basics consist of serpentine, talc-chlorite schists, talc-carbonate schist, calcite-
chlorite schists, chromite-chlorite schists, and minor relict harzburgite. Ultra-basic masses are
apparently more abundant to the west of Chalt. There are large lenses of quartzite which may
have formed in situ or which may be tectonic blocks and limestone intermixed with other
sediments. The whole assemblage has the appearance of a major mélange with no simple
repetitions, as expected in an imbricate zone. The structures in the high-grade metamorphic
rocks contrast with those in the main mélange up-dip as seen from mineral lineation and folds
with curvilinear hinges. This tectonic zone is considered to mark the suture between the
Kohistan sequence and the Eurasian Plate to the north. There is no evidence of blue-schists,
of abducted high-pressure granulite’s or of an ophiolite, but instead large tectonic lenses of a
mélange.

5.2 The Kohistan Island Arc

The principal rock units of the Kohistan Island Arc include, from south to north:

• Jijal Complex: granulite, mafic, and ultramafic

• Kamila Amphibolite Complex: mostly norites
• Chilas Complex: mafic and ultra-mafic layered complex of gabbros, norites, and
dunnite intersected by dikes and seams of anorthosite and chromite
• Kohistan Batholith: various calc-alkaline intrusive
• Kohistan Arc Sequence: various meta-sedimentary units and volcanic units typical of
an island arc and fore-arc setting

It is important to point out that geologic mapping has shown that the contacts of the major
lithologic units in the Kohistan Island Arc area are faulted (e.g., Ghazanfar, et al., 1991),
including the southern and northern boundaries of the Chilas Complex (Figure-2). The Kamila
Complex is also dissected by numerous shear zones and is bounded to the north by a major
shear zone (Kamila Shear Zone).

The Kohistan Island Arc was formed in the mid-Cretaceous and sutured to Asia around 100-
85 million years ago. India later collided with the arc after continued seduction beneath the arc
complex, now accreted to the active continental margin. After full collision, the arc was tilted,
uplifted and dissected, enabling examination of the crustal structure of an immature island arc.
Suturing to the Asian active continental margin meant that the arc itself became an active
continental margin, and the attendant crustal thickening produce an evolution in magmatism
from basaltic to calc-alkaline.

7
The Indus River gorge section through the Kohistan Island Arc reveals an informative section
through an island arc from the MMT to which the arc forms the hanging wall in the south, to
its footwall position against the Northern Suture. The arc itself is exposed for over 200 km
north to south and about 300 km from east to west. The strike of the various tectonic units is
approximately east-west; therefore, the deepest crustal regions are represented in the
southern portions.

This is best observed in the phases of plutonism observed in the gabbro-norite plutons of the
Chilas Complex and in the Kohistan Batholith, and also in the surrounding (meta-) volcanic
into which these granitic sheets are intruded.

The Indus river gorge section through the Kohistan Island Arc reveals an informative section
through an island arc from the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) to which the arc forms the hanging
wall, in the south to its footwall position against the Northern Suture. The arc itself is exposed
for over 200 km north to south and about 300 km from east to west. The strike of the various
tectonic units is approximately east west; therefore, the deepest crustal regions are
represented in the southern portions (Figure-3).

Figure-3. Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan displaying major faults.

After Ahmed Hussain et. al. 2004.

8
Nearly 50 to 55 million years ago, the two continental plates collided at this junction. The
tremendous amount of pressure created caused the Earth’s crust to buckle, producing large
horizontal and vertical displacement and also producing the mountains of the Karakoram. After
full collision, the displaced arc enabled examination of the crustal structure of an immature
island arc. Suturing to the Asian active continental margin meant that the arc itself became an
active continental margin, and the attendant crustal thickening produce d an evolution in
magmatism from basaltic to calc-alkaline.

Jijal Group

A complex of layered mafic and ultramafic intrusions occurs between Patan and Jijal, an area
of about 200 km². In the north are garnet-clinopyroxene-plagioclase rocks containing relics of
norite, and so it is likely that these are high-pressure metamorphic equivalents of the Chilas
complex. The grain size is similar to that of the norite but garnets continued to grow after the
deformation and locally grew to cover 8 cm especially in leucocratic veins. Hornblendites may
contain hornblende-garnet, granitite and garnet plagioclase. The overall composition is a high-
pressure metamorphic assemblage and the rocks are equivalent to eclogite facies, thus
representing the lower parts of the crust.

Towards the southern boundary of the complex there is an increase in proportion of

clinopyroxenes and hornblendites, until the main ultramafic body is reached, which consists
of clino-pyroxenites, and dunites which have lenses of layered chromite up to 5 m thick. It has
been concluded that both the granulite’s and the dunites suffered granulite grade
metamorphism at 600 – 700°C and 12 – 14 kb and at 800 – 850°C and 8 – 12 kb respectively
(Jan & Howie, 1981). The Jijal Complex is possibly a tectonic fragment of the Chilas Complex
that was subducted or down thrusted to a substantial depth against the MMT.

Kamila Amphibolite Belt

This is composed primarily of norites; mostly at amphibolite facies (therefore pyroxenes have
retrograded to hornblendes). Amphibolite metamorphism is assumed to have occurred during
suturing to Asia. The belt also includes banded amphibolites with or without garnet,
hornblendites, schists, garnet gabbros, and anorthosites, diorites, tonalities and granites and
thin garnet quartzites and calc-silicate lenses. The proportion of amphibolite is commonly low.
The belt is distinctive in that most intrusive rocks are concordant and parallel to the regional
trend and have been intensely deformed, many of the coarser leucocratic types becoming
augen gneisses. Ghazanfar, et al. (1991) is of the view that these are the oldest exposed unit
of the Kohistan sequence and show ophiolitic character.

The Kamila belt is dissected by a number of small shear zones and is bounded to the north
(adjacent to the Chilas Complex) by a major shear zone, the ‘Kamila Shear Zone’. The belt
represents the mid crustal regions of the primitive arc.

9
Chilas Complex

The Chilas Complex is a vast stratiform cumulate body over 300 km long and 8 km thick,
dominated by intrusions of calc-alkaline gabbro-norites, which locally show layering
(Ghazanfar, et al. 1991). It contains an upward sequence of hypersthene gabbro, major
chromite-layered dunites, norite, gabbro, minor troctolite, harzburgite and dunites, and at the
top, norite. Particularly impressive are rhythmically-alternating phase-graded cumulate layers
up to 0.1 m thick, slump folds, syn-sedimentation faults, and sedimentary breccias. Some
layers up to about 0.3 m thick are of almost pure anorthosite (Figure-4). Dykes of pyroxene-
hornblende anorthosite cut both homogeneous and layered rocks. The lower dunites are up
to 1 km thick and contain 3-m-thick compact chromite seams. All these rocks show evidence
of several phases of deformation. Isoclinal folds in norites have hypersthene’s orientated in
axial planar fabrics and the penetrative mineral fabric in the norites is parallel to the axial
planes of folded pyroxene amphibolite dykes. These relationships suggested a tectonic origin
for the main mineral fabrics in the complex.
More than 85% of the unit comprises relatively monotonous gabbronorite (the gabbro-norite
association) consisting of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, magnetite, ilmenite with
or without magnetite, scapolite, biotite, quartz, K-feldspar and hornblende. Around 15% of the
Chilas Complex comprises ultramafic rocks (dunites, troctolite, peridotite, pyroxenite,
anorthosite and gabbro-norite) within a unit termed ‘the ultramafic association’ or UMA. The
UMA exhibits a range of original igneous textures including mineral layering, slumping, graded
bedding, and Sy depositional faults. The UMA is particularly well exposed around Chilas close
to Nanga Parbat. Most workers have observed the gabbronorites being intruded by the UMA,
although examples of the converse situation exist. Readers are directed to Tahirkheli (1982),
Jan (1988), Khan et al. (1989, 1993), Treloar et al. (1996), and Garrido et al. (2006), Jagoutz
et al. (2006, 2007) and Takahashi et al. (2007) for further details.

Jaglot Group

Occurring north of the Chilas Complex, the Jaglot Group comprises schists intercalated with
material of volcanic origin. To the south, the Jaglot schists are intruded by the Chilas gabbro-
norites, while to the north the Kohistan Batholith intrudes them. This confusion and
overprinting from magmatism mean that the Jaglot Group has only recently been defined as
a unit (Treloar, et al., 1990). The main lithologies are greenschist facies metabasites, pillows
and some volcaniclastic material inter-bedded with pelitic, psammitic and calc-silicate schists,
representing clastic and carbonate sedimentary protoliths.
The Jaglot Group extends in a semi-contiguous fashion for some 250 km east–west and up to
20– 30 km north–south. It has a probable intrusive relationship with the Chilas Complex to the
south and, where not in intrusive contact with the Kohistan batholith is conformable with the
Chalt Volcanic Group to the north. The Jaglot Group is a mixed, largely metasedimentary unit
comprising metasandstones, carbonates, siltstones, mudstones and turbidites with local meta
basalt, andesite and rhyolite volcanic rocks. Khan et al. (2007) described a 1–4 km wide, 15
km long basalt and dolerite dyke swarm, oriented NW–SE, at the base of a volcanic-rich unit
(Thelichi Formation) within the Jaglot Group.

10
Figure-4 Structural/Lithological Sketch map of Kohistan
(Modified after Jean-Burg (2011))

Kohistan Batholith

This consists of a zone of plutonism associated with active continental margin volcanism (i.e.,
Andean type magmatism). This is a principal unit of the Kohistan magmatic arc and constitutes
a 300 km long and up to 60 km broad belt to the west of Nanga Parbat. The Kohistan Batholith
is composite and consists of numerous large to small plutons, plugs, dykes and sheets
emplaced over a time span of some 75 million years (Kazmi & Jan, 1997). A wide range of
rocks has been reported to constitute the batholith: gabbros, hornblendite, diorites, quartz
diorite, adamellite, granodiorite, granite, tonalite, pegmatite etc.

The Kohistan batholith extends over 270 km east– west (as mentioned above, the batholith in
Kohistan is only part of a c. 2700 km long Trans-Himalayan batholith) and up to 50–60 km
north–south. The batholith comprises a wide range of lithologies from hornblendite to
leucogranite, but predominantly is gabbroic, gabbroic diorite and granite or trondhjemite in
composition. Batholithic intrusions are largely small–medium- to medium–large volume
plutons with significant vertical and horizontal dimensions. Intrusive bodies also take the form
of sills, dykes, sheets, lopoliths and other smaller geometries (Figure-4). Many intrusions are
complex and composite multi-intrusive bodies with up to four or five phases of intrusion. The
most common major minerals are plagioclase, alkali feldspar, hornblende, biotite and quartz.
The batholith is largely intrusive into the Chalt Volcanic Group (see below) and the Jaglot
Group metasedimentary dominated unit, although Khan et al. (1998) also reported batholithic
units intruding Kamila Amphibolites around Babusar. The batholith has been particularly
uplifted and eroded close to Nanga Parbat and also west of Gilgit where volcano-sedimentary
sequences unconformably overlie the batholith (e.g., Sullivan et al. 1993). Even the earliest
pioneers recognized that there were probably three distinct phases of batholithic intrusion
(e.g., Wadia 1932; Ivanić et al. 1956) that could be differentiated on the basis of the presence
or absence of well-developed penetrative fabrics with earlier gneissic like gabbros and
granitoids intruded by undeformed plutons that in turn were intruded by late granite sheets.

11
Northern Kohistan Arc Sequence

This is comprised of various volcanic and metasedimentary Groups – Dir and Chalt Groups.
These include Eocene calc-alkaline basaltic-andesitic-rhyolitic lavas and pyroclastic deposits
associated with the active continental margin stage of the arc complex.

There is a tectonic break between rocks of the northern suture and the volcanic and sediments
belonging to the Chalt Group to the south, which make up the northern part of the arc. This
group contains meta-greywackes and slates, epidotic grits and tuffs, hornblende-bearing tuffs,
chlorite schists, schistose amphibolites, amygdaloidal pillow-bearing basalts and fragments
basic volcanic. Further south near Gilgit and Raikot there are graded psammites and pelites
and locally thick piles of deformed pillow lavas, but these occur as screens between large
plutons of diorite and tonalite.

The total thickness of deformed and weakly metamorphosed sediments and volcanic reaches
several kilometers but this may involve repetitions by folding and thrusting. The rocks are
folded by large upright, tight to isoclinal anticlines and synclines, which plunge east or west.
They are cut by thin granitic dykes and by muscovite pegmatites, which are discordant to both
cleavage and bedding.

Chalt Volcanic Group

The Chalt Volcanic Group (CVG) is the northern most Kohistan-wide conformable geological
unit, occupying an area some 330 km east–west by up to 30 km north–south. The northern
contact is conformable with the overlying Yasin volcano sedimentary unit or the Shyok Suture
and the southern contact is predominantly obscured by the Kohistan batholith, although the
CVG should conformably rest upon the Jaglot Group.

Mapping data in this area indicate a general younging direction northward, suggesting that the
CVG is younger than volcanic rocks cropping out around Jaglot (Petterson & Treloar 2004).
The CVG is divisible into an eastern Hunza Formation and western Ghizar Formation. The
Hunza Formation is dominated by pillowed and unpillowed boninites, basalt to andesite lavas
with minor rhyolites, thin ignimbrites, primary and reworked volcanoclastic units and minor
intrusive rocks.

The Ghizar Formation is situated west of Gilgit and is a much more heterogeneous sequence
of volcanic rocks than the Hunza Formation, comprising basaltic to andesitic (and minor
rhyodacite) tuffs and primary volcaniclastic rocks, and reworked volcaniclastic rocks with
locally important lava-dominated sequence. A proximal Strombolian–Vulcanian center has
been identified in Ishkuman valley, west of Gilgit. Readers are directed in particular to (studies
by Petterson et al. (1991b) and Petterson & Treloar (2004) for detailed descriptions of the
volcanic sequences and to those by Tahirkheli (1982), Pudsey et al. (1985a), Coward et al.
(1986), Pudsey (1986) and Searle et al. (1999) for more general or localized descriptions of
these units.

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Yasin volcano-sedimentary formation

The Yasin Formation, where exposed, rests conformably upon the CVG. This unit is exposed
rather episodically adjacent to the Shyok Suture, being absent in some areas. The Yasin
Formation comprises a mixed assemblage of volcaniclastic and non-volcanic turbidites,
sandstones, siltstones and mudstones with minor carbonate units, some of which contain
Albian–Aptian Orbitolinid fossils. This clastic-dominated sequence also contains minor basalt
and andesite lavas (Hayden 1914; Desio 1959, 1963a, b, 1964, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1980;
Tahirkheli 1982; Pudsey et al. 1985b; Pudsey 1986; Robertson & Collins 2002)

5.3 The Indian Plate

The bedrock suites south of the Kohistan Island Arc and the southern suture zone include
those forming the pre-collisional stratigraphy of the Indian Plate plus the syn- and post-tectonic
material eroded from the mountain ranges of the Himalayas, Karakorum, Hindukush, and
Pamirs.

The principal geologic units are:

➢ Salt Range. The Salt Range defines the Frontal Thrust of the Himalayas, a thin-
skinned structure riding on an evaporite decollement. The topographic relief of the
Salt Range is produced by blind thrusts and ramp anticlines.

➢ Molasse. Molasse sequences of detrital sediments form the Margalla Hills and the
Punjab Plains. All tectonism is thin skinned with numerous southward-propagating
thrusts that have produced numerous imbricate zones. The sedimentary sequences
making up the Murree Series found in the project area belong to this grouping.

➢ Hazara Sediments. The Hazara metasedimentary belt is largely composed of

Precambrian to Early Mesozoic sediments. The Precambrian sequence is
composed of quartz schist, graphitic schist, marble and gneiss overlain by thick
sequence of slate, phyllite and greywacke sandstone. The Precambrian sequence
is unconformably overlain by quartzite and argillite.

➢ Mansehra Batholith. Imbricated slices of this granitic batholith, intruded into the
metamorphic cover, are exposed in the Hazara Syntaxis. It is Cambrian in age and
obviously pre-exists collision.

➢ Metamorphic Cover. This consists of late Precambrian-early Cambrian meta

sediments, which have undergone a Palaeozoic low-grade metamorphism and are
overlain by pre-collisional Mesozoic sediments. These were further meta
morphoses and thrusted in the foothill of the MMT synchronous with full collision.

➢ Nanga Parbat Group. Rocks of the Nanga Parbat Group represent units belonging
to the cratonic Gondwana basement, exposed in the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh
Massif syntaxis. The Proterozoic gneisses of the Indian Plate have their northern
most exposure in the Nanga Parbat Syntaxis and represent the lowest structural
levels of the Indian Plate observed. They have been mapped and subdivided into
three litho-stratigraphical groups (Madin et al., 1989).

13
5.4 Local Geological Setting

The local geological setting around project area has been interpreted based on the geological
map of Mahodand Quadrangle after Afridi et al. (1999) published by Geological Survey of
Pakistan (GSP).

Quaternary Deposits

Stream Deposits
Stream deposits comprise gravels, cobbles and boulders with fine to coarse sand. The
deposition is on-going process with the perennial and non-perennial streams. These cover the
stream and riverbeds of active channels.
Alluvial deposits
These are old river or stream deposits making terraces along the valley slopes. These deposits
comprise gravels, cobbles and boulders embedded in silty sandy matrix. Most of the
settlements are situated on these deposits. The top layer of these deposits comprises fine
materials and therefore are being used for cultivation.
Kohistan–Ladakh
is described as a terrane sensa stricto because it is bounded on all sides by sutures separating
it from other terranes that have experienced a significantly different geological history. The
Nanga Parbat–Haramosh syntaxis almost splits the Kohistan–Ladakh terrane in two along the
eastern border of Kohistan with Baltistan. In regional terms Kohistan is one piece of a tectonic
jigsaw that saw the amalgamation of many terranes to form the present-day Asian
supercontinent (e.g., Sengor & Natalin 1996). Suturing of Gondwanan and intra-oceanic
terranes to Asia occurred largely from the Jurassic and Cretaceous, affecting areas right
across the proto-Asian continent (e.g., Mongolia and Afghanistan, Sengor & Natalin 1996).

Rock Units

Matiltan Granite
Matiltan granite comprises white to light grey, medium to coarse grained and porphyritic
granite and granodiorite composed of orthoclase, plagioclase, quartz, hornblende and biotite,
with xenoliths of quartzite, amphibolite and diorite.

Utror Volcanic
Utror Volcanic comprise grey, green, maroon red and at places white, fine to medium grained,
identified as andesite, dacite, rhyolite with tuffs, agglomerate and pyro clasts.
Barawal Banda Quartzite
Barawal Banda Quartzite comprises light to dark grey on fresh surface and brownish grey on
weathered surface, thin to thick bedded, fine-grained quartz which is cherty at places.

14
Barawal Banda Slates/ Phyllites/ Schists
This rock units in this formation comprise grey, green and maroon in color, thin bedded, fine
to very fine textured, occasionally silty phyllites, schists and slates. Occasional beds of light
grey thinly bedded limestone are also present at places.
Deshai Diorite
Deshai Diorite comprises grey, greenish grey, medium to coarse grained diorite composed of
plagioclase, hornblende, biotite with subordinate quartz, hornblende pegmatites and quartz
veins.

Kalam Quartz Diorite (Associated with Meta Sediments)

It comprises grey, greenish grey, medium to coarse grained quartz diorite composed of
plagioclase (andesites), hornblende and biotite. Quartz feldspathic veins and xenoliths of
Kalam meta-sediments are present in places

6.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK

The geodynamic framework of northern Pakistan is characterized by the collision and

coalescence of Eurasian and Indian Continental Plates, which were once separated by the
oceanic domains, and creation of the Kohistan island arc in the late Cretaceous. The collisional
process started in the late Eocene to early Oligocene with the formation of the Himalayan
Ranges and this process still continues. Relative to Eurasia, the Indian plate is still moving
northwards at a rate of about 4 cm/year. The seduction of the Indian plate beneath the
Eurasian plate has resulted in folding and thrusting of the upper crustal layers near the
collisional boundary. The thrusting has been depicted from north to south in the shape of MKT
(Main Karakoram Thrust), MMT (Main Mantle Thrust), MBT (Main Boundary Thrust) and SRT
(Salt Range Thrust) the locations of which are shown in Figure-5.

6.1 Regional Tectonics

The geology of northern Pakistan is a superb example of continental collision tectonics. In this
area, the three of the world’s greatest mountain ranges converge, the Himalayas, the
Karakoram, and the Hindukush. The mountain building process that formed these ranges
commenced in Cretaceous time when Indian plate started moving and was carried northward
(Scotese et al., 1988). During that time (i.e., Early Cretaceous) Karakoram terrain sutured with
eastern Hindukush along the Tirich Mir fault (Zanchi et el., 2000; Hildebrand et al, 2001).

15
 Figure-5 Generalized Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan; by GSP (1982)

Soon after, the intra-oceanic Kohistan arc formed over a seduction zone that dipped beneath
the arc, either to the south or to the north (Khan et al. 1993). It is widely accepted that the
northward movement of India was concurrent with the accretion to Asia of an intra-oceanic arc
system, the Kohistan arc that collided with Asia along the Shyok Suture or MKT. The southern
margin of Asia, including the Kohistan arc, then became an Andean type convergent margin,
until India collided with Asia. Thrusting of the Kohistan terrain southward over the northern
Indian plate margin along the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) probably took place in Late
Cretaceous or Paleocene time and was completed by 55Ma, forming the Indus Suture Zone
(Searle et al., 1999).

16
A detailed description of the salient features of the Kohistan magmatic arc and the adjoining
Northwestern Himalayan Fold-and-Thrust Belt of the Indian plate is given below;

6.2 Kohistan Magmatic Arc

Kohistan is an intra-oceanic island arc bounded by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) to the south
and the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) to the north. This E-W oriented arc is wedged between
the northern promontory of the Indian crustal plate and the Karakoram block. Gravity data
modeling indicates that the MMT and MKT dip northward at 35˚ to 50˚ and that the Kohistan
arc terrain is 8 to 10 km thick (Malinconico, 1989). Seismological data suggests that the arc is
underlain by the Indian crustal plate (Seeber and Armbruster, 1979, Fineti et al., 1979). The
northern and western part of the arc, along MKT, is covered by a sequence of Late Cretaceous
to Paleocene volcanic and sedimentary rocks. The central part of the arc terrain is mainly
composed of Kohistan Batholith which comprises an early (110-85 Ma) suite of gabbro and
diorite, followed by more extensive intrusions of gabbro, diorite and granodiorite (85-40 Ma)
which are intruded by much younger dykes and sills of leucogranite (30-26 Ma).

The southern part of Kohistan is comprised of a thick sequence of mafic and ultramafic rocks.
These rocks may be divided into three tectono-metamorphic complexes separated by major
thrust zones (Figure-6). The Chilas Complex forms the northern and upper unit. It comprises
layered norites and gabbros metamorphosed to granulite facies. It is characterized by a series
of south-verging folds. It has been thrusted southwards over the Kamila Amphibolites
Complex. The latter consists of amphibolites, meta-gabbro and orthogneisses.

Figure-6 Geological map of Kohistan, Northern Pakistan. (From M. G. Petterson 2018).

17
This sequence comprises a highly tetanized shear zone. Southward, it is thrusted over the
Jijal Complex which forms a tectonic wedge between the Kamila Shear zone and the MMT.
(Figure-5). The Jijal Complex is largely comprised of garnet-pyroxene-granulite’s and
ultramafic rock (Tahirkheli and Jan, 1979; Coward et al., 1986; Khan et al., 1993; Treloar et
al., 1990; Miller et al., 1991).

6.3 Northwest Himalayan Fold-and-Thrust Belt

The Northwest Himalayan fold-and-thrust belt occupies a 250 km wide and about 560 km long
irregularly shaped mountainous region stretching from the Afghan border near Parachinar up
to the Kashmir Basin. The Hazara-Kashmir and Nanga Parbat Syntaxes form its eastern
margin. It covers all the terrain between the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) in the north and Salt
Range Thrust in the south. This region comprises the mountain ranges of Nanga Parbat,
Hazara, Southern Kohistan, Swat, Margalla, Kala-Chita, Kohat, Potwar and Salt Range.
A major thrust fault, the Panjal-Khairabad Fault divides the NW Himalayan sequence into a
deformed southern zone, often referred to as the external or foreland zone and a deformed
and metamorphosed northern zone, also known as the hinterland zone (Pivnik & Wells, 1996).
The foreland zone comprises the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Salt Range and Kohat-Potwar
fold belt and the Kurram-Cherat-Margalla thrust belt, whereas the hinterland zone comprises
the Himalayan crystalline nappe-and-thrust belt.

7.0 MAJOR TECTONIC FEATURES

Northern and western regions of Pakistan are more sensitive to earthquake activity than the
other segments because they are surrounded by the micro plates of Afghanistan, Iran and
India. Main Central Thrust (MCT), Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT), Main Boundary Thrust
(MBT) and Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) are the major faults located in Northern Pakistan. The
area also includes two Syntaxial Bends, known as Nanga Parbat and Kashmir Hazara, where
the rocks strata are folded around this syntax and are subject to a 90 0 “rotation” from one side
to the other side (Figures 3 to 6). Seismic data indicates that movements along these Faults
and Syntaxial Bends are the major sources of significant and destructive earthquakes.

In tectonic terms Kohistan is bound by two suture-scale faults: the Shyok Suture to the north
and the Indus–Tsangpo Suture to the south. These structures separate Kohistan from
distinctively different, much larger and older geological entities (i.e., the southern part of
Eurasia to the north and the northern part of the Indo-Pakistan plate to the south). Kohistan is
part of a terrane that extends westwards into Afghanistan and eastwards into Ladakh; the
strike length is some 700 km long (strike varying between NE–SW, east–west and NW–SE,
with a maximum width between sutures (perpendicular to strike) of almost 200 km. By far the
most complete part of the Kohistan–Ladakh terrane, in terms of geological units exposed, is
situated in Pakistan, with Afghanistan hosting a very small area and Ladakh hosting
predominantly upper crustal units (Treloar et al. 1990; Rolland et al. 2002).

18
Kohistan is unique because it hosts one of the most (if not the most) complete crustal sections
in the world, from the mantle to the uppermost crust. The only other comparable crustal section
in the world is the Jurassic Talkeetna terrane in Alaska (Barker & Grantz 1982; DeBari &
Coleman 1989; Greene et al. 2006; Hacker et al. 2008). The batholithic units within Kohistan
are part of a c. 2700 km long batholith extending from Afghanistan to northern Burma, and
present in Kohistan, Ladakh and Tibet. Kohistan–Ladakh is described as a terrane sensu
stricto because it is bounded on all sides by sutures separating it from other terranes that have
experienced a significantly different geological history. The Nanga Parbat–Haramosh syntaxis
almost splits the Kohistan–Ladakh terrane in two along the eastern border of Kohistan with
Baltistan. In regional terms Kohistan is one piece of a tectonic jigsaw that saw the
amalgamation of many terranes to form the present-day Asian supercontinent (e.g., Sengor &
Natalin 1996). Suturing of Gondwanan and intra-oceanic terranes to Asia occurred largely
from the Jurassic and Cretaceous, affecting areas right across the proto-Asian continent (e.g.,
Mongolia and Afghanistan, Sengor & Natalin 1996).

Along the Swat Valley of Kohistan, the seismic activity is associated with micro earthquakes
and macro earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.0, and largely coincides with the surface trace of the
Himalayan Main Central Thrust (MCT) rather than with the Himalayan Main Boundary Thrust
(MBT) which represents the structural boundary. Direction of the horizontal compression has
been inferred from the focal mechanism solutions. The direction of crustal stress in the area
is mostly NE-SW, perpendicular to the line of plate collision and the MBT. In the Hindu Kush
region, the earthquake mechanism is generally thrust faulting occasionally normal faulting
whereas in the Kashmir, the earthquakes mainly show thrust faulting mechanism with a clear
NE-SW compression (Figure-7).

The Madyan HPP area is located between the MKT and MMT features, in the western part of
the northern Kohistan Island Arc sequence, in an area of NNE-SSW trending amphibolitic and
granitic Mesozoic to Pliocene rock formations (Figure-7). The MMT large displacement thrust
fault brings the Northern Kohistan sequence over the crystalline rocks of the Southern
Kohistan Ranges. The Southern Kohistan Ranges contain metamorphic rocks associated with
granite and gneiss. These rocks are in abrupt contact with Devonian marine strata south of
Swat and with Cambrian strata in Hazara division.

The major faults surrounding the project region include, from north to south, the Main
Karakoram Thrust (MKT), Kohistan Fault, Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), Panjal-Khairabad Thrust
and Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The general trend of these faults is predominantly east
west with change in trend due to syntaxial bends.

19
Figure-7. Seismotectonic Fault System of Northern Pakistan including Kohistan & Swat.
after Searle et al. (1999).

20
General description of these major faults is as follows;

7.1 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT)

The Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) represents the collision zone of the southern margin of the
Eurasian plate in Asia and extends into the Baltistan area through Hashupa and Machie in the
Shigar and Shyok valleys, respectively. This fault forms the northern boundary of the Kohistan
Island Arc and runs eastward to join Indus suture zone in upper Himalayas and terminates at
its junction with the Karakoram fault. In the Chitral and Gilgit area, the rocks of the Karakoram
Batholith are thrusted over the rocks of Kohistan Batholith along the MKT (Figure-7).

MKT is a high angle, seismically active thrust with a large number of earthquakes of low to
medium intensity. It is considered that rupture on the MKT during an earthquake could take
place over a large area and could involve a relatively long portion of the fault system. This
equates to known ruptures on smaller boundary structures elsewhere in the Himalaya and the
fact that the fault zone is comparatively straight over significant distances (>100 km).

The MKT is the collision zone of the southern margin of the Eurasian plate and extends into
Baltistan through the Hashupa, Shigar, and Shyok valleys, respectively. MKT is a seismically
active thrust fault that has a high angle along which many earthquakes occurred. It represents
the collision zone of the southern margin of the Eurasian plate in Asia and extends into the
Baltistan area through Hashupa and Machie in the Shigar and Shyok valleys, respectively.
This fault forms the northern boundary of the Kohistan Island Arc and runs eastward to join
Indus suture zone in upper Himalayas and terminates at its junction with the Karakoram fault.

7.2 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)

The MMT is the suture zone between the Indian plate and the Kohistan Island Arc. This zone
is marked by the presence of upper mantle and lower crustal rocks on the Kohistan side and
exhumed deep lower crustal rocks such as blue schist and eclogite on the Indian side. The
MMT extends from Nawagai (Mohmand Agency) in the west to the north of Narran (Kaghan
Valley) in the east, where it takes a north-eastward bend towards the east of Bunji and gets
truncated by Raikot Fault. The MMT was originally defined as the tectonic boundary between
the metamorphic shield and platform rocks of the Indian plate hinterland and dominantly mafic
and ultramafic rocks of the Kohistan-Ladakh arc complex in Pakistan (Tahirkheli et al., 1979).

DiPietro et al. (2000, 2008) suggest that the MMT contact can be defined as a series of faults
of different age and tectonic history that collectively define the northern margin of the Indian
plate in Pakistan. On this basis, the faults that define the MMT vary in age from Quaternary to
possibly as old as Late Cretaceous. Discontinuous lenses of ophiolite mélange, which overlie
the MMT contact and intervene between the Indian plate and the Kohistan Island Arc, are
considered to be part of an MMT zone that is equivalent with the Indus suture zone.

Auxiliary structures associated with the MMT include imbricate thrusts and shears parallel to
it, including the Kamila Shear Zone. Towards the east, the major north-south striking Raikot
Fault zone, which together with its associated structures, exhibits remarkable neo tectonic
features with recently located earthquakes between November 2002 and January 2003
(DiPietro et al., 2000). Ruptures on the MMT are thought to be limited to comparatively short
segments of the system of faults, shears, and sutures. This assumption is supported by the
mapping of the fault trace, which is remarkably sinuous.

21
Majority of recorded earthquakes in this region occur deeper than 20 km and potentially reflect
movement on the fault plane of the MMT. In area east of Kharg in Indus Kohistan, where large
ophiolite slices are absent, the MMT is represented by the Kohistan-Raikot Fault system and
by faults and mylonite zones that define the northern and eastern flanks of the Nanga Parbat-
Haramosh massif (Figures-7).

Further west, the MMT comprises the Nawagai fault along the west side of the Malakand slice,
imbricate faults along the northern margin of the Dargai melange, the Dargai fault at Qila and
Nawa Kili, and the Nawagai faults to the Afghan border (Figure-6). West of Kharg, the MMT
would be bounded on the north side by the Kohistan fault and on the south side by the
Shergarh-Kishora-Dargai-Nawagai fault system. All of these features are described in more
detail in DiPietro et al. (2000).

7.3 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)

The most significant and active tectonic feature of regional extent is the Main Boundary Thrust
(MBT). It is the main frontal thrust of Himalayan Range, which runs along the Himalayan arc
for almost 2500 km from the Assam in the east to Kashmir and Parachinar in the west. MBT
along with other associated thrusts forms a sharp conspicuous Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis. This
syntaxial bend is the most dominant tectonic feature of the area as all local major fault systems
and geologic structures follow its trend. On the west side of syntaxial knot, the MBT initially
follows a rather southwest trend and then extend westward reaching Parachinar.

The MBT Fault is a thrust fault with the left lateral strike-slip movement. The fault’s geometric
complexities are due to the interaction with the pre-existing faults in the area as the MBT and
Panjal thrust is running parallel in the eastern limb of the HKS. The two separate faulting
phases are preserved along the shear zone of the MBT. The folding, faulting, thrusting, back
steepening is observed along the study area, which is kinematically linked with the thrusting
and strike-slip faulting. Near its surface trace, the MBT dips northward at a steep angle, which
becomes sub-horizontal with depth. Islamabad-Rawalpindi area is located at a close distance
south of the western limb of the MBT (Figure-7).

A number of large to major earthquakes have occurred along Himalayan Arc east of the
Hazara-Kashmir syntaxis during the last two centuries, which places it amongst the most
active regions of the world. A lot of seismicity recorded during the last century is associated
with surface and subsurface extensions of MBT and other associated thrusts. Based on this
data, Seeber et al. (1981) have shown that great earthquakes occurring along Himalayan Arc
are probably related to slips taking place along this quasi-horizontal surface (detachment).

7.4 Kohistan Fault

On the Geological Map of NWFP (2006) published by the Geological Survey of Pakistan, the
contact between the Kamila amphibolies and the Satpat ultamafics to the south of Dasu are
shown as the Kohistan fault. Along this fault, the rocks of the Kamila complex are thrust over
the Satpat complex rocks.

22
7.5 Panjal-Khairabad Thrust

The Panjal-Khairabad Thrust is an important active tectonic feature of regional significance. It

runs northwards and parallel to the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) on the eastern side of
Hazara- Kashmir Syntaxis where it is normally called Main Central Thrust (MCT). These faults
gradually converge and eventually join about 5 km north of Balakot (Calkin et al. 1975, Bossert
et al. 1984 and Greco 1991). In the area west of Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, this fault is
commonly called Panjal Thrust. A left lateral strike slip fault cuts across both the Panjal Thrust
and MBT approximately 6 km south of Balakot, from where onwards the Panjal Thrust
continues its independent journey southwards. It is traceable up to Garhi Habibullah from
where onward it is concealed beneath Quaternary deposits. The thrust comprises several
segments having an aggregate length of about 130 km. To the west this fault passes through
the Gandghar range near Haripur and joins the Khairabad fault located on the northern side
of the Attock-Cherat range, hence it is sometimes referred as the Panjal-Khairabad fault.

7.6 Local Tectonic Features

The Project is located in the western part of the Kohistan Island arc near the boundary between
the Kohistan Batholith and Utror Volcanic. Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) is in the north
passing at a closest distance of about 55 km. Kohistan fault and Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)
are in the south passing at a closest distance of 45 and 50 km respectively. In the Geological
Map of NWFP (2006) published by the Geological Survey of Pakistan, the contact between
the Kohistan Batholith and Utror Volcanic is shown to be a normal contact but some
researchers believe that this contact is faulted (Figure-7).

A regional fault named as Shandur Thrust is marked on GSP Geological Map of Mahodand
Quadrangle (Scale 1:50,000) prepared by Afridi et al. (1999) which shows this fault passing at
about 10 km in the north of the weir site. This thrust fault has been marked by the Utror
Volcanic group of rocks in southeast while by Kalam Quartz Diorite associated with meta
sediments in the northwest. The fault is dipping towards the north away from the Project and
is running northeast-southwest ward (Figure-8).

The inclusion of this fault in the hazard analysis would cover the hazard associated with near-
site faults, as lot of observed seismicity in this area may be associated with local faults.
Towards the east of the site, Harman and Darel earthquakes also occurred on undefined
faults. Based on observed seismicity around the Project area, this fault is considered active.

23
 Figure-8 Shandur Thrust Fault (From Geology Report of Madyan HPP)

8.0 BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN

A building code is a set of rules that specify the standards for constructed objects such as
buildings and non-building structures. Buildings must conform to the code to obtain planning
and construction permission from concerned authorities. The main purpose of building codes
is to protect public health, safety and general welfare as they relate to the construction and
occupancy of main buildings and structures.

Seismic building codes result in earthquake-resistant buildings, but not earthquake-proof

buildings. Seismic codes are intended to protect people inside buildings by preventing collapse
and allowing for safe evacuation. Structures built according to the Buildingcode should resist
minor earthquakes undamaged, resist moderate earthquakes without significant structural
damage, and resist severe earthquakes without collapse.

Pakistan lies on a seismic junction of three major tectonic plates of the world including
Eurasian, Indian and Arabian. The devastating Kashmir-Hazara Earthquake of October, 2005
resulted in 87,000 casualties, 780,000 buildings were destroyed and 2.5 million people
became homeless with economic loss around US $ 2.3 billion.

24
During that depth of difficulty and National disaster, Pakistan Engineering Council (PEC) took
one step further and constituted a high profile Task Force comprising of eminent experts from
academia, industry, Ministry of Housing & Works, Ministry of Science and Technology,
National Engineering Services Pakistan (NESPAK) along with allied stakeholders, partier
organizations and the never ending assistance provided by the International Code Council
(ICC) and the American Concrete Institute (ACI) for the development of first ever Building
Code of Pakistan (BCP) Seismic Provision 2007.

Over a period of decade, the frequency of earthquakes has been gradually increasing in
Pakistan as per real-time recorded seismic data by Pakistan WAPDA and Pakistan
Metrological Department In fact, there were five major earthquakes ranging from Mw 6.4 to
Mw 7.5 hit almost all metropolis cities in Pakistan. Hence, the mandatory revision of the Code
was very much needed in view of seismic-resilient design with durable structural strength,
modern typologies of building construction and safe practices. For revision of the Code, PEC
joined hands with the World Bank, NED-UET, NDRMF, ICC and also constituted a high-profile
Task Force on updating of Building Code of Pakistan (2021).

Building Codes of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (BCPSP, 2007 & 2021), specified that a
precise seismic factor (to design a building) should possibly be higher than that concentrating
in the seismic zoning map of Pakistan. They stated design for PGA of 0.125g (acceleration
due to gravity) horizontal component acceleration value for average structures, and for 0.2g
without collapse for significant structures. For profound structures, micro level site-specific
designs are vital that take into account the strength of the underlying soil and bedrock and the
region from credible earthquake sources. As an example, a BCP map is given in Figure-9.

Construction of all building types is required to be followed according to rules and guidelines
mentioned in the Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) seismic provision 2007 and updated
November 2021. Site specific studies are required for special types of all the large civil
structures like all parts of Hydro Power Projects (HPP), all parts of small and large storage
dams, bridges and high-rise buildings.

8.1 Soil Profile Types

Each Structural site shall be assigned a soil profile type based on properly substantiated soil
engineering characteristics using the site categorization procedure. Building Code of Pakistan
seismic provision 2007 has defined the soil profile types in following BCP Table-2.

25
26
Figure-9 Building Code of Pakistan (2021) Map for Return Period = 475 years

8.2 Site Foundation Condition

For the seismic hazard assessment, the site foundation condition is best defined by Vs 30 which
is defined as the average shear-wave velocity (Vs) of subsurface material for the upper 30-m
depth. This is calculated from a Vs measurement presented in various formats. Because of
the gravitational influence, the property of ground materials is usually presented by, a "layered-
earth model" in which the earth's properties change only vertically and are represented by a
collection of distinctive layers. Each layer is then considered a homogeneous material with the
same seismic properties in S and P waves’ velocity (Vs and Vp) and density. In addition,
because of the more rapid property change at shallower depths, the thickness of each layer
in a layered-earth-model tends to be smaller at the top and increases with depth.

27
Calculation of the average Vs for a certain depth range (for example, top 30 m) can be
accomplished in two different ways: (1) based on relative thickness-contribution of each layer
(Method 1), and (2) based on the definition of velocity ─ total thickness (∑di) divided by total
travel time (∑ti) that is calculated by summation of thickness (di) divided by velocity (Vsi) of
each layer (Method 2).

The calculation of Vs30 in (m/sec) using the Method 2 is done by the formula:

Vs30 = ∑di / ∑ti = 30 / ∑(di/Vsi) (meters/sec) (1)

Using the above methodology, V S30 for Weir and Power House site was calculated. As per
Geological Maps, research papers on Madyan Geology, Geophysical survey and sub-surface
conditions of available bore hole logs of the site, the average shear wave velocity in top 30
meters of the Madyan HPP site profile (Vs30) was assigned to be 750 m/sec for Weir site and
underground Power House. Whereas 600 m/sec for Appurtenant Structures above ground.

9.0 HISTORICAL SEISMICITY AND EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE

Until the advent of instrumental records from seismological observatories at the beginning of
the 20th century, intensity data collected from historical records were the only source of
earthquake information. The importance of intensity data is that it establishes some
understanding of the level of damage that can be expected to occur in a given region.

Pre-instrumental seismicity records include general accounts of injuries, loss to life, and
damage to property and infrastructure. Historical pre-instrument earthquake information has
been researched for other Projects in Pakistan (such as for Tarbela Dam Project, Dasu
Hydroelectric Project and Diamer-Basha Dam Project). Several important historical
earthquake catalogues have been identified (Oldham, 1883; Heuckroth and Karim, 1970;
Ambraseys et al., 1975; Quittmeyer and Jacob, 1979; Pakistan WAPDA 2016).

Historical earthquake data helps to identify the seismicity patterns of an area and, in regions
where numerous earthquakes have occurred, can provide a basis for calculating the estimated
probability of future earthquake motion at the site considered. This is based on the assumption
that events similar to those which have occurred in the past could reoccur at or near the same
location. The lack of historical earthquakes, however, does not necessarily imply that the area
considered is aseismic.

It can be readily recognized that Northern Pakistan has been a region characterized by
consistent occurrence of historically documented earthquakes, although it is also evident that
the records are clearly incomplete. Since the 1700’s, the historical earthquake data for the
Northern areas of Pakistan are few and mainly concentrated on the centres of colonial
administration. Important earthquakes for which damage data are available include:

28
 ➢ Aristobulus of Cassandreia described that the first known historical account of
seismicity of Northern part of Pakistan in the fourth century B.C. He
accompanied Alexander on his expedition to India, who pointed out that the
country above the river Jhelum was subjected to earthquakes, which caused
the ground to open up so much that even the riverbeds were changed
(Ambraseys et al., 1975).

 An important historical earthquake occurring in Northern Pakistan was the

destructive earthquake of 25 A.D., which ruined the city of Taxila, to which the
Intensity of IX-X has been assigned (Ambraseys et al., 1975). The effect of this
earthquake can still be seen among the excavated remains of Jandail, Sirkap
and Dharmaraja near Taxila.

 On March 25, 1869, a large earthquake occurred in the Hindukush region and
was strongly felt at Kohat, Peshawar, Swat, Lahore, Gilgit-Baltistan and at
Khodjend and Tashkent with shaking that lasted 20 seconds.

 On May 22, 1871, a damaging earthquake was noted at Kohistan, Gilgit and
Skardu with many aftershocks. This earthquake was strong enough to be felt
widely in Pakistan and as far away as Meerut and Agra in India.

 On July 8, 1909, an earthquake caused destruction in the region of Mankial and

Kalam in the Swat valley where Lady Minot’s Hospital was damaged and many
houses collapsed, killing 10 people and cattle. The damage area extended to
Dir, Swat, Kalam, Karori, and Alipura, and the earthquake was also felt in Gilgit,
Skardu, Besham, and to the north up to Tashkent.

 The epicentral intensity of the historical earthquakes that occurred after the
1700’s is estimated to be greater than VIII on the Modified Mercalli (MM)
intensity scale.

The Historical Earthquake catalogue is attached in Appendix A.

9.1 Significant Earthquakes

Some important earthquakes that were felt in and around the Kalam Region during last 50
years are described below.

Harman Valley Earthquake of September 3, 1972

An earthquake of magnitude Mw 6.3 at a depth of 45.2 km struck the Harman Valley of Gilgit
Baltistan district on September 3, 1972. The epicentre of that earthquake was located in
Kohistan Island Arc at Latitude 35.94 degrees North and Longitude 73.33 degrees East,
approximately 55 km northwest of Basha. In the epicentral area, the Intensity was felt as VIII,
while around Kalam area, the Intensity was observed as V.

29
Pattan Earthquake of December 28, 1974

The destructive Pattan earthquake of December 28, 1974 occurred in the isolated Pattan,
Hazara, and Swat districts of Northern Pakistan. The epicentre was located at 35.0 degrees
North and 72.8 degrees East. The magnitude Mw 6.2 earthquake had a shallow focal depth
and was followed by numerous aftershocks. An official estimate of the number killed was 5,300
with approximately 17,000 injured. Most of the destruction was centered on the village of
Pattan, located about 160 km north of the capital city of Islamabad. The Pattan village was
almost completely destroyed.

The epicentral region is characterized by steep-walled narrow canyons and valleys. Most of
the population was concentrated along the rivers. Much of the destruction was caused by the
numerous landslides and rockfalls which came tumbling down from high above. The main road
leading into the area was blocked for about 40 km by landslides and rockfalls, hampering relief
efforts. The government flew in emergency supplies by helicopter until the roads were
reopened on January 13, 1975. The FPS for this earthquake indicates a thrust fault
mechanism (NEAC, 2004).

Although the 1974 epicentre is located in the vicinity of the Duber Kale fault, the strike of its
fault plane and the sense of motion are incompatible with that of the Duber Kale fault. The
direction of slip agrees with the overall deformation in the area. This is a thrust event with the
greatest principal stress striking NNE and the fault plane striking WNW. Maximum Intensity in
the epicentral area was VIII (Ambraseys et al., 1975) and computed for Kalam was VI.

Darel Valley Earthquake of September 12, 1981

An earthquake with shallow depth (29.7 km) and magnitude Mw 6.1 struck the Darel valley of
Kohistan district on September 12, 1981. The epicentre of that earthquake was located at
Latitude 35.22 degrees North and Longitude 73.48 degrees East, approximately 75 km
northwest of Skardu. In the epicentral area, the Intensity was felt as VI, while around Kalam
area, the Intensity was observed as IV. It has not been associated with any known tectonic
structure within the area.

Astore Valley Earthquakes of November 2002

On November 1, 2002, a moderate earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.3 (at a depth of 33 km)

occurred in the Gilgit Baltistan areas of Pakistan. The epicentre was located about 55 km
south of Skardu city. The earthquake occurred at 33.56 degrees North and 74.64 degrees
East, in the Astore Valley, where the Intensity was observed as VI. Around Kalam area, the
observed Intensity was IV (Iqbal, 2011).

On November 20, 2002, the region was rocked again by another large shallow earthquake
with a magnitude Mw 6.3 at a depth of 15 km. The epicentre was located at 35.52 degrees
North and 74.66 degrees East, in the north-western part of Astore Valley. In the epicentral
region, the Intensity of earthquake was observed as VIII. The main shock was followed by a
large number of aftershocks, few of which were large enough to increase the damage caused
by the main shock. The occurrence of aftershocks lasted 40 days.

30
The epicentre of the main shock was located in Astore Valley, where Intensity was observed
as VII. Around Kalam area the observed Intensity was estimated as V.

The FPS of both earthquakes indicate a dip of 480 with normal faulting (Iqbal, 2011). The
epicentres of these earthquakes lie near the interface of Kohistan Magmatic Arc and the
Nanga Parbat Haramosh Massif (NPHM), along the MMT-Raikot fault, near the town of Bunji.
The area also represents the northern boundary of the under thrusting Indian plate. This
feature raises the significance of the tectonic studies and study of active seismicity of the
Kohistan region. The entire area is faulted and fractured and seismically active with history of
quite a few moderate-damaging earthquakes (Kazmi and Jan, 1997).

Bunji Earthquake of November 3, 2002

On November 3, 2002, a moderate earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 5.3 and shallow depth
of 17 km occurred in the Gilgit Baltistan Areas of Pakistan. The epicentre of the earthquake
was located at 35.10 degrees North and 74.70 degrees East with as many as five aftershocks
with magnitudes Mw ranging from 3.7 to 4.2. Epicentral Intensity of this earthquake was VI.

Kashmir Hazara Earthquake of October 8, 2005

A powerful earthquake with a magnitude of MW 7.6 struck the northern part of Pakistan on
October 8, 2005 and caused widespread damage in Azad Kashmir and adjoining areas of
Hazara area of Pakistan. The epicentre of this large earthquake was located about 10 km
northeast of Muzaffarabad. This earthquake was felt for several minutes in Pakistan, Northern
India, and Afghanistan. Its epicentral Intensity was computed as XI.

The heaviest damage was recorded in the towns of Balakot, Batal, and Batagram in Hazara
and Muzaffarabad, Bagh, and Rawalakot in Azad Kashmir where the entire population was
severely affected. Building collapse was also reported in Abbottabad and Islamabad. Serious
cracks were observed in many high-rise buildings in Islamabad. The death toll due to this
earthquake exceeded 80,000 people and millions were rendered homeless due to collapse of
houses. The earthquake was followed by a series of more than thousand aftershocks,
hundreds of them exceeding magnitude 4.0. The fault plane solution for the main shock given
by Harvard Moment Tensor Solution shows a predominant thrust motion. The observed
Intensity of this earthquake was VII in the Kalam and Swat areas.

Gilgit Earthquakes of December 30, 2019

On December 30, 2019, an earthquake with magnitude Mw 5.4 was felt in the areas of Gilgit
Baltistan and Kohistan. The epicentre of this earthquake was located at Latitude 35.59
degrees North and Longitude 74.62 degrees East, approximately 23 km SSE of Gilgit. The
city of Gilgit was shaken with an Intensity of VII due to this earthquake. The Intensity of
earthquake in the Kalam area was observed as V. Within two days, the earthquake was
followed by a number of aftershocks ranging between Mw 3.8 and 5.1.

31
Shounter Valley Earthquake of January 12, 2020

On January 12, 2020, a shallow-focused (10 km) earthquake of magnitude 5.1 was felt in most
parts of Gilgit Baltistan areas. The epicentre of this earthquake was located at Latitude 35.01
degrees North and Longitude 74.47 degrees East, about 52 km SE of Chilas, along the
Shounter valley. Its epicentral Intensity was VI, while in the area of Kalam area its observed
Intensity was IV, (emsc-csem.org of European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre).

Astore Valley Earthquakes of December 2021

On December 27, 2021, a moderate earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.3 (45 km) occurred in the
Astore valley of Gilgit Baltistan. Its epicentre was located about 65 km southeast of Skardu.
The earthquake occurred at Latitude 35.55 0 N and Longitude 74.830 E. Along the epicentral
area the Intensity was observed as VI, while in/around Kalam area it was IV.

Skardu Earthquake of March 2022

A moderate earthquake with magnitude Mw = 5.3 was felt by many people in and around
Skardu City with Intensity V on March 16, 2022. Its epicenter 35.72 N and 75.22 E was located,
59 Km NW of Skardu at a depth of 10 km. At Kalam area its observed Intensity was III-IV.

Hindukush Earthquake of March 21, 2023

General. An earthquake of 6.8 magnitude was reported from Hindukush region of Afghanistan.
Shockwaves were felt in most of the northern parts of Pakistan; including KP, GB, AJ&K, ICT
and Northern Punjab with lesser degree in Northern Baluchistan. The earthquake was followed
by one aftershock of 3.7 magnitude. At Kalam area its observed Intensity was IV.

10.0 INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES

The instrumental recording of earthquakes in the Region started in 1904, but very few seismic
stations were established in the South Asian region until the 1960’s. During the 1960’s, the
installation of high-quality seismographs under the World-Wide Standard Seismograph
Network (WWSSN) established by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1960 greatly
improved the quality of earthquake recording in this Region and has resulted in a better
understanding of the seismicity of Pakistan.

However, based on the limited number of local seismographs, the complete understanding of
the seismicity including the smaller magnitude events is still limited and lacking for the Region.
In Pakistan and most other parts of the world, the instrumental seismic record is too short and
incomplete to develop a sample that is truly representative of the spatial and temporal
distribution of earthquakes over a large period.

Earthquake catalogues have been one of the vital products of seismology. Homogeneous and
complete earthquake catalogues are compiled for different purposes and specific to certain
areas of seismology such as seismic risk, earthquake physics, and hazard analysis.

32
Catalogue accuracy is one of the most important considerations while quantifying any
earthquake catalogue because of its influence on the obtained results (Kagan, 2003).

Earthquake catalogues and reports, as well as online databases are the standard sources
used to collect the necessary information for compiling an earthquake catalogue. Some
catalogues offer high quality hypocentres, while others enclose lower quality hypocentres
through carefully researched damage reports and other information (Allen et al., 2009).
Improvements in seismic observation and catalogue reporting can be done by examining the
catalogue properties (Kagan, 2003). Typically, a ranking preference is developed for multiple
contributing catalogues in a region in which a given earthquake is reported from multiple
catalogue sources.

For the present study, a composite list of seismic events that occurred in the Project Region
and recorded by seismographs has been prepared. It is based upon earthquake catalogues
of Pakistan prepared by NESPAK (2020), Waseem et. al. (2018), Pakistan Metrology
Department and the WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) installed around
Large Dams and Hydro Power Projects (HPP’s) in Northern areas of Pakistan.

10.1 NESPAK Earthquake Catalogue

After the devastating Kashmir Hazara Earthquake of October 8, 2005, the Building Code of
Pakistan (Seismic Provisions, 2007) were prepared by seismic and geotechnical experts of
NESPAK for the Ministry of Housing & Works, Pakistan. For the purpose of preparing a PSHA
based seismic zoning map of Pakistan, a composite earthquake catalogue of instrumentally
recorded earthquakes for Pakistan was compiled by NESPAK. This catalogue is being
updated every year for use in the seismic hazard evaluation of the projects. For present study,
the catalogue was got updated through December 2021.

For this catalogue, the instrumental earthquake data was collected from two sources. The first
one is based upon earthquakes recorded by regional seismic networks and the other is
compiled from a local network data catalogue. The regional data was compiled from
earthquake listings of International Seismological Centre (ISC) England, National Earthquake
Information Centre (NEIC) of US Geological Survey, Pakistan WAPDA, Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD), and earthquake listing compiled by Quittmeyer and Jacob
(1979). As the ISC listing is based on a regular re-evaluation of the epicentral data, its listing
was given preference over the others.

10.2 Sarfraz Khan et al. (2018) Earthquake Catalogue

During 2018, a comprehensive earthquake catalogue including both historical and

instrumental events was published by Waseem et al. (2018) of the National Centre for
Excellence in Geology, Peshawar, Pakistan, for their various research projects. The
earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the
geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are
reported as 4.0– 8.3 moment magnitude (Mw) and span from 25 AD to 2016.

33
The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries. For this
catalogue, earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual
catalogues are included. The events from this catalogue were included in the seismicity
catalogue only for events which were not reported in the NESPAK or local MSMS catalogues.

10.3 Pakistan WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System Earthquake Catalogue

For the seismic safety monitoring of Tarbela Dam Project, Pakistan WAPDA installed a
thirteen station Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) in and around Tarbela Dam Project
during August 1973. After going through various upgradations, it is operating till date. During
the year 2010 two of its local stations were relocated in Skardu and Chitral, to monitor the
seismicity near the Satpara and Golan Gol Hydro Power Projects.

A MSMS comprising of ten seismic stations was installed in and around the proposed Diamer
Basha Dam Project Pakistan WAPDA during August 2007. Additionally, a three station MSMS
was commissioned around the proposed Bunji Hydro Power Project during 2010. Both MSMS
remained in operation until December 2016. The microseismic events recorded by theese
networks are available from September 2007 through December 2016, although not on a
continuous basis. The earthquake data (updated till December 2021) located by WAPDA local
networks was collected and included in the regional catalogue and given preference due to
high accuracy of local networks. The duplicate events were removed from the seismicity
catalogue based on this ranking preference for the contributing sources.

10.4 Focal Depth and Earthquake Catalogue

In addition to the spatial distribution of earthquake epicentres, the distribution as a function of

depth of the observed earthquakes can be a critical parameterization in a seismic hazard
analysis. The distribution of earthquakes as a function of depth can help to define the depth
of the seismogenic zone in the Earth’s crust. This depth range of the seismogenic zone is
observed to vary around the world and is considered to be related to the larger regional
tectonics. Often, local seismograph networks make it possible to resolve hypocentral depths
to within 1 to 2 km in depth. However, this is true for areas in which the local seismic networks
are well distributed as is the case in California and Japan.

For Pakistan, the same high-density distribution of seismic instrumentation is not available;
hence, the hypocentral depth uncertainty associated with the observed seismicity is expected
to be significantly larger. For event locations and hypocentral depths reported from global
teleseismic instrumentation catalogues, (e.g., the ISC and the USGS) many hypocentral
depths are assigned the default value of 33 km. This assignment is based on the limitation of
depth estimations from seismic stations which are not closely distributed.

Specifically, at teleseismic distances, the depth can only be estimated accurately if the near-
source surface reflection, the depth phase pP, can be identified. Without special analysis, pP
can only be identified as separate from the direct phase P, once its delay corresponds to that
of about 50 km depth. Hence, the teleseismic uncertainty in the depth estimate of ‘shallow’
earthquakes is roughly ±25 km. Therefore, the depths given in the ISC and USGS catalogues
may not provide the robust estimate of the depth of future seismic energy release.

34
11.0 CATALOGUE COMPILATION

A reliable and complete catalogue should include all earthquakes that have occurred in the
region reported by dependable sources and the earthquake magnitudes should be converted
into a single and consistent magnitude scale. For the Seismotectonic and Seismic Hazard
Studies of Madyan HPP, a composite earthquake catalogue was developed. The composite
earthquake catalogue was organized by combining all the earthquake catalogues described
above.

The NESPAK catalogue was taken as main source of earthquake data because it contained
seismic events reported by various international and national agencies. Those seismic events,
which were missing from the NESPAK catalogue but contained in the Waseem et. al. (2018)
catalogue, were added in the composite catalogue. Seismic events with magnitudes ≥ 3.0
from the WAPDA MSMS catalogue, not already included in the other two catalogues, were
added in the composite catalogue.

In the process of compiling the composite catalogue, care was taken to avoid including
duplicate seismic events. This composite catalogue includes all earthquake data from all
available modern instrumental catalogues (International & National) covering the period from
January 1900 through December 2022 (Appendix-B).

11.1 Catalogue Compilation and Magnitude Conversion

For the present report the seismic events with magnitude 3 and greater occurring within about
200 km radius of the Madyan HPP, from January 1900 though December 2022, have been
included in the composite catalogue. In the previous report of 2019 seismic events up to
December 2018 were available, while local catalogues were not consulted.

The contributing reporting agencies have given a variety of magnitudes: body-wave magnitude
(mb), surface-wave magnitude (MS), Richter/local magnitude (ML) or duration-magnitude
(MD), etc. In the case of a single event reported in different magnitude scales, the Mw scale
is considered superior to all other scales. Otherwise, mb and MS scales are preferred over
ML scale. Since attenuation relationships are based on magnitude of a given type, a single
and consistent magnitude type must be used.

As the majority of recent attenuation equations used in seismic hazard analysis are based on
moment magnitude (Mw), all the other magnitude types were therefore converted to moment
magnitude (Mw) using the following equations by Scordilis (2006):

Mw = 0.67 MS + 2.07 for MS < 6.1 (2)

Mw = 0.99 MS + 0.08 for MS >6.1 (3)

Mw = 0.85 mb + 1.03 for mb < 6 (4)

Mw = 1.69 mb – 4.01 for mb > 6 (5)

35
For ML up to 5.7, the value of ML was taken equal to Mw as supported by operators of local
networks in Pakistan (Personal communication). It should be noted that the conversion of
earthquakes from ML to Mw is more uncertain for magnitudes less than 4.0 and that the
recurrence parameters developed for this study considered only events with magnitude
greater than 4.0.

Conversion of ML to Mw beyond magnitude 5.7 was done by using the following five equations
suggested by Ambraseys and Bommer (1990) and Ambraseys and Bilham (2003):

0.82 (ML) – 0.58 (MS) = 1.20 (6)

MS = (0.82 (ML) – 1.20) / (0.58) (7)

Log Mo = 19.09 + MS for MS ≤ 6.2 (8)

Log Mo = 15.94 + 1.5 MS for MS > 6.2 (9)

Mw = (2/3) Log (Mo) – 10.7 (10)

where mb is the body–wave magnitude, MS is the surface-wave magnitude, ML is the local

magnitude, Mw is the moment magnitude, and Mo is the seismic moment. Using a two-step
process to estimate Mw for events with ML greater than 5.7 is not ideal, as it increases the
uncertainty generated in the catalogue due to magnitude conversion, but it is necessary due
to the limitations of available earthquake data in Pakistan.

The Compositive Catalogue for MSR is given as Appendix-B.

11.2 Declustering of Earthquake Catalogue

In this seismic hazard analysis, it was assumed that earthquakes occur independently of each
other. Foreshocks and aftershocks are both temporally and spatially dependent on a
mainshock. Therefore, the earthquake catalogue was declustered (i.e., dependent events
were identified and removed), resulting in a catalogue composed of independent events. The
composite catalogue for this Project was declustered using the Reisenberg (1985) algorithm
to remove dependent events (aftershocks and foreshocks).

The Reisenberg algorithm identifies events that occur within time and spatial windows, termed
clusters, with the largest event in the cluster being named the main shock and the smaller
earthquakes labelled as foreshocks or aftershocks. These clusters are then replaced with the
main shock earthquake. The resulting catalogue is assumed to be events independent in
space and time. This algorithm works well with catalogues that have a large number of smaller
earthquakes (such as the catalogue compiled for this study), typically removing more of these
events than other methods. A plot of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the Madyan
Seismic Region (area of 200 km radial distance around the HPP), is presented on Figure-9.

36
12.0 ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE

The spatial distribution of seismic events recorded in and around the Madyan HPP and given
in Appendix-B is plotted on Figure-10.

Figure-10 Seismotectonic Map of Madyan Seismic Region (MSR).

The distribution of observed seismicity on the seismicity map clearly shows that the Kalam
Valley is located in a region of high seismicity. The concentration of earthquakes southeast of
the Project area is related to seismically active Himalayan frontal zone along which Kangra
earthquake of 1905 and Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of 2005 occurred.

The epicentres of three well-studied earthquakes of magnitude 5.9 or above have been
recorded in Kohistan Island arc east of the Project area (Ambraseys, et al., 1975; Jackson &
Yielding, 1983). These earthquakes are:

• Patan earthquake (28 December 1974); magnitude (Mb) 5.9; 90 km south of the site;
close to the surface expression of MMT;

• Harman earthquake (3 September 1972); magnitude (Mb) 6.3; 55 km northeast of

the site; within the Kohistan Island Arc; and

• Darel earthquake (12 September 1981); magnitude (Mb) 6.1; 20 km northeast of the
site; within the Kohistan Island Arc.

37
The locations of these events are shown in Figure-11. While the Patan earthquake
(28.12.1974) is located close to the surface expression of the MMT, the Harman earthquake
of 3.9.1972 and Darel earthquake of 12.9.1981 occurred within the Kohistan Island Arc, east
of the Project site. This shows that active tectonic features are present within or below the
Kohistan Island Arc within which the Project area is located.

Figure-11 Fault Plane Solutions of Significant Events of MSR.

Both spatial and temporal clustering or concentrations of seismic activity have been observed
in the Project region and is distributed over a large area and has not yet been associated with
any known tectonic structure in the area. Previously, the cluster of seismicity north of Darel
valley has been associated with the Jaglot syncline but recent geological maps have not
shown this syncline as fault associated. Importantly, however, the results of new mapping
have shown that the boundaries or contacts of the main lithologic units in Kohistan are faulted.
In this respect, it is pointed out that the Darel earthquake occurred close to the northern
boundary of the Chilas Complex.

The concentration of seismicity in the northeast of the Project is from highly active zone of
Raikot-Sassi fault zone of the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh Syntaxis (NPHS). The small
concentration of recent earthquakes (November 2002 to March 2003) is located in the Raikot
area on the western flank of the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh structure and possibly extending
within the massif. The main shocks include:

 1st November, 2002; magnitude (Mw) 5.5; and

 20th November, 2002; magnitude (Mw) 5.9.

About 89 aftershocks were also recorded in this period the alignment of which shows
predominantly north-south trend.

37
Along MKT, a number of small to medium earthquakes are located towards the northwest of
the Project showing recent activity of MKT. The earthquake activity on northeast of the study
area is mainly related to Karakoram fault.

The observed seismicity (Figure-10) shows that the Madyan Seismic Region is seismically
active due to tectonic processes associated with the interaction of the Eurasian and Indian
tectonic plates. The seismic events in the Project Region mostly shows E-W trending folds
and faults. The deformation within this zone is primarily the result of thrusting and of deep
crustal decollement processes associated within the collision of the plates. The map indicates
that most of the seismic activity is aligned along known faults that are controlling the
seismotectonic of the Region.

However, in the seismic activity map, many of the located seismic events may not be
associated to the surface tectonic faults and may be attributed to features present at shallow
depths. Within some areas of the seismic activity map the observed seismicity is relatively low
and do not consist of higher magnitude events. This implies that the regional tectonic features
in the Region are seismically active at moderate to high level magnitudes, due to stresses
developed as a result of collision of the tectonic plates. It is therefore assumed that the Project
Region (radial distance of 200 km around Project) is seismically active and generating
earthquakes of Mw ≥ 4.0.

12.1 Local Seismicity and Focal Depth and Mechanism

The reported focal depths of earthquakes included in the composite list range from 0 to more
than 300 km. In general, the deeper events are related to Hindukush seismic zone whereas
other areas have focal depths less than 100 km. In the Kohistan Island Arc, the depths of most
of the earthquakes are generally shallower than 70 km and nominal depth of 33 km is
mentioned for majority of these events in all the earthquake catalogues, due to the low-
resolution in depth calculation in the absence of a proper recording network in this region.

It is important to note that majority of the earthquakes in Kohistan Island arc area having
magnitude 5 to 6 are located up to about 60 km depth while majority of the events with
magnitude greater than 6 remained concentrated in the focal depth less than 50 km. The
October 08, 2005 earthquake (M=7.6) had focal depth less than 26 km.

The available fault plane solutions of earthquakes in this region show predominantly thrust
mechanism. Jackson and Yielding (1983) have re-analysed the phase data of three prominent
earthquakes described above.

Fault plane solutions for these earthquakes show a thrust source mechanism in keeping with
the tectonic model described above involving subduction and under thrusting of the Indian
Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The northeast to north-northeast dipping planes of these
fault plane solutions is possibly representing the causative rupture which is in conformity with
the observed northward dips of the major thrusts of the region.

38
13.0 SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

Data for developing the seismic source characterization model (e.g., location and lengths of
faults, seismic record, etc.) were acquired from existing published information, data from
national agencies, and from the results of studies carried out earlier for other Hydro Power
Projects in the Kalam area.

Based on the tectonic and seismological data of the Madyan Region and seismic sources
used for other hazard studies in this region, seismic sources to be used for seismic hazard
analysis were defined.

13.1 Areal Seismic Sources

For the seismic hazard analysis, the region is divided into five areal seismic source zones.
The division of the region into these seismic source zones is based on consideration of the
seismicity, the fault systems, and the stress direction analysis. The division is also based on
the data processing of the whole catalogue regarding the seismicity, depth , and the study of
research papers and including the study of geological and seismotectonic maps of the region.
The five seismic areal source zones are shown in Figure-12 along with the seismicity.

Figure-12. Seismic Source Zones in Madyan Seismic Region

Seismic Events From January 1960 through December 2022.

39
The Project site appears to be located in an area of lower seismicity than some of the
surroundings areas where the seismicity is largely influenced by the tectonics associated with
the continental collision. Boundaries of the areal source zones comprised coordinates for the
entire perimeter of each province. Input parameters for defining seismicity within each source
zone were estimated based on seismicity within a given zone, including seismogenic depth,
the activity rate (a-value, or number of events per year > M min) and b-value estimated from
the Madyan Region seismicity catalogue for the source zone.
Note that due to limited available information, crustal faults were not explicitly included in the
PSHA. Instead, the seismicity was assumed to capture the earthquake activity related to faults
and the characterization of the areal sources considered the faults located within each source
zone. In particular, each of the areal sources was assigned a maximum magnitude based on
either the longest active fault in the areal source zone and the empirical area-magnitude
relationship of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) or the maximum observed seismicity in the
historical seismic record with an additional 0.5 increase in the maximum observed magnitude,
if the faults within the source zone are not defined. This additional 0.5 increase in the maximum
magnitude is to account for the potential uncertainty in the largest observed magnitude unit
and/or the under-representation of the largest maximum magnitude for a given areal source
zone based on the limited time period for a given earthquake catalogue.
The selection of maximum magnitude for each areal source zone is descried in the following
sections. There is some uncertainty in defining the length of the faults or fault segments. The
values reported herein represent the best estimate based on judgment and other Hydro Power
Projects experience in the region. The continental thickness in Northern Pakistan ranges from
about 55 km in the Lesser Himalayas to 80 km in the Greater Himalayas (Bhakta et al., 2006;
Butler et al., 2002; Li and Mashele, 2009; Rai et al., 2006). Additionally, earthquakes have
been observed to occur at depths up to 300 km and even deeper in the Pakistan region. For
this study and based on the published values for crustal thickness in the Himalayan and
Hindukush region, the majority of the source zones were modelled with a seismogenic depth
of 70 ±10 km. A summary of the input parameters for the areal source zones included in the
PSHA is provided in Table-1 .
A brief discussion of each of the five individual areal source zones is also presented. All of
these areal zones were assigned a truncated exponential recurrence model defined by the
activity rate, b-value and maximum magnitude.

13.1.1 Kohistan Seismic Source Zone

The Madyan HPP area is located in the Kohistan seismic source zone. The Kohistan source
zone is characterized by high levels of observed micro seismicity and frequent medium-sized
earthquakes, such as the 1974 Pattan earthquake, the Harman valley earthquake of 1972,
and the Darel valley earthquake of 1981. This observed seismicity has not been associated
with the MMT or to the Karakorum Thrust faults, and there is no neotectonic data for this area.
The primary type of faulting in this zone was assumed to be thrust faulting, given the presence
of the MKT on its northern side and the MMT along the southern boundary. The MMT is the
longest and most critical fault of the Kohistan areal source zone. The segment of the fault

40
nearest to the project site has a length of about 140 km and its maximum magnitude potential
is about Mw = 7.6, estimated using Wells and Coppersmith (1994).
For reference, the recorded seismicity data for this zone during the last 120 years shows that
the largest earthquake recorded in this zone had a magnitude of Mw = 6.7. As with most faults
in the region, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the characterization of the
MMT, including fault segmentation upon which the estimate of the maximum magnitude is
based. Therefore, to account for uncertainty in the maximum magnitude, the maximum
magnitude was varied by ±0.5 magnitude units about a central value of Mw = 7.5.
The seismicity plot of Kohistan source zone indicates that the whole of the zone is seismically
active with small to moderate seismic events. Since a majority of events occur at shallow
depth, their effects may have significant implications for the seismic hazard at the site.

13.1.2 Kashmir Himalayas Seismic Source Zone

The Kashmir Himalayas source zone is an important seismic zone along the Himalayan range,
east of Hazara Kashmir syntaxial bend. A number of large damaging earthquakes typical of
the Himalayan active zone have been recorded in this zone, including the Mw = 7.6 Kashmir-
Hazara earthquake of 2005. Large numbers of earthquakes occurred historically in this zone,
signifying that the Kashmir Himalayan region is seismically very active.

The primary type of faulting in this zone was assumed to be thrust faulting, given the presence
of the MBT and Panjal Thrust faults in the zone. The MBT is the longest and most critical fault
in the Kashmir Himalayas areal source zone. The segment of the MBT fault in this zone has
a length of about 200 km and its maximum magnitude potential is approximately Mw = 7.8, as
estimated using Wells and Coppersmith (1994). For reference, the recorded seismicity data
during the last 120 years shows that the largest earthquake that occurred in this zone had a
magnitude of Mw = 7.6 (October 2005 Kashmir-Hazara earthquake). To account for
uncertainty in the maximum magnitude, the maximum magnitude was varied by ±0.3
magnitude units about a central value of Mw = 7.8 (Table-1).

13.1.3 Western Himalayas Seismic Source Zone

The Western Himalayas seismic source zone represents the Himalayan area west of the
Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxial bend and covers area between the MMT and MBT in Pakistan. This
zone is also seismically active, with moderate to low level of seismicity; however, one large
damaging earthquake (the Taxila earthquake) has been recorded during the last about 2,000
years. Shallow seismicity in a thrust environment is predominant in this zone.

The MBT and Panjal-Khairabad are the two major faults in the Western Himalayas areal
source zone. These faults show segmentation. The reported earthquake that caused the most
damage historically is the Taxila earthquake of 25 AD, which had a possible magnitude of
about Mw = 7.0. This was assumed to be represent the maximum magnitude for this zone.
Per the recorded seismicity data, the largest earthquake that occurred in this zone during the
last 120 years had a magnitude of Mw = 6.5. The maximum magnitude of Mw = 7.0 was varied
by ±0.5 to account for uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of the historical Taxila
earthquake (Table-1).

41
13.1.4 Karakoram Seismic Source Zone

The Karakoram seismic source zone covers the area on Eurasian plate north of the MKT. The
main tectonic feature of this zone is the Karakoram strike-slip fault running northwest and
crossing this zone; therefore, the primary fault type for this zone was assumed to be strike-
slip.
The Karakoram source zone is not a densely populated zone, but a lot of seismic activity is
present. The seismicity is mostly concentrated in the northern side of this zone. Seismically,
the area has exhibited low rate of seismicity over a long period of time.

The Karakoram strike-slip fault is the longest and most critical fault of the Karakoram areal
source zone. The longest segment of the fault has a length of about 45 km and a maximum
magnitude potential of approximately Mw = 7.0, as estimated using Wells and Coppersmith
(1994). The recorded seismicity data during the last 120 years shows that the largest
earthquake that occurred in this zone had a magnitude of Mw = 7.0. Adding 0.5 magnitude
units to the largest recorded earthquake in Karakoram zone results in a maximum magnitude
of Mw =7.5 and this value was selected as the maximum magnitude (Table-1).

13.1.5 Hindukush Seismic Source Zone

This zone covers the Hindukush Seismic Zone (HSZ) north and northwest of Chitral and is
characterized mainly by intermediate to deep seismicity associated with sharp subduction of
the Indian Plate below the Eurasian plate. This is the most active seismic zone in the complete
study region. The Hindukush source zone covers the north Afghanistan beyond the border
region with Tajikistan. The deep seismic events are observed in this zone down to a depth of
300 km. Several large and deep earthquakes with their epicenters in the HSZ have affected
large areas in northern part of Pakistan. Most of the deep earthquakes in the Hindukush
seismic zone with magnitude greater than or equal to Mw = 5.5 are felt in most parts of
Northern Pakistan and beyond, including the Madyan HPP area. Most of the seismicity in this
zone originates from 90 to 280 km in depth as modelled as being related to the continental
collision or a trapped oceanic basin (Pelvis and Das, 2000).
The maximum length of these faults is about 300 km and the maximum magnitude potential
was estimated using Wells and Coppersmith (1994) to be about Mw = 8.0. For reference, the
recorded seismicity data during the last 120 years shows that the largest earthquake to have
occurred in this zone considering shallow events has a magnitude of Mw = 7.5. Adding 0.5
magnitude units to the largest recorded earthquake in Karakoram zone results in a maximum
magnitude of Mw = 8.0 and this value is selected as the maximum magnitude.

14.0 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Seismic Hazard Analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground motion characteristics
at a particular site and conducted by probabilistic or/and deterministic methods. In recent years
a good deal of work has been carried out throughout the world to study the seismicity of various
areas to estimate the earthquake hazard potential for establishing design criteria for the
construction of high-rise structures and multi-story buildings etc.

42
For Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) of the Madyan HPP the guidelines provided by the
International Commission on Large Dam (ICOLD) for selecting seismic parameters (Bulletin
148, 2016) has been followed. A brief description of the methodology of the approaches to be
used for the seismic hazard analysis in accordance with ICOLD guidelines is given below.

14.1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)

PSHA Methodology
In probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the seismic activity of seismic source
(line or area) is specified by a recurrence relationship, defining the cumulative number of
events per year versus the magnitude. Distribution of earthquake is assumed to be uniform
within the source zone and independent of time.

The seismic hazard model used in the present analysis was developed based on findings of
the seismotectonic synthesis. The seismic hazard model relies upon the concept of
seismotectonic zones and does not include linear or discrete fault sources. Each seismic
source zone is defined as a zone with homogenous seismic and tectonic features, inferred
from geological, tectonic and seismic data. These zones are first defined, and then a
maximum earthquake and an earthquake recurrence equation are elaborated for each of
these seismic source zones.

The seismic parameters attached to the various seismic source zones are: a recurrence
relationship relating the number of events for a specific period of time to the magnitude; the
maximum earthquake giving an upper bound of potential magnitude in the zone; and an
attenuation relationship representing the decrease of acceleration with distance. The PSHA
is a detailed analysis of distribution of observed seismic data to the seismic sources,
determination of b-value and activity rate of each seismic source and assigning maximum
magnitude potential to each seismic source.

The seismic source zone parameters computed for PSHA are given in Table-1.

Table - 1 Seismic Area Source Zones Parameters for PSHA

No. of Minimum Activity
Zone Seismic Source Earthquakes Magnitude Rate b Maximum
No Zone name above Min. Mw /Year Value Magnitude
Magnitude Mw
1 Hindukush 5941 4.3 95.822 1.048 8.0
2 Karakoram 201 4.1 3.24 1.063 7.5
3 Kohistan 469 4.4 7.56 1.177 7.5
4 Kashmir Himalayas 523 4.5 8.435 1.125 7.8
5 Western Himalayas 400 4.0 7.56 1.177 7.0

43
14.2 Earthquake Recurrence Model

A general equation that describes earthquake recurrence may be expressed as follows:

N (m) = f (m, t) (11)

Where N (m) is the number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than m, and it
is time period.

The simplest form of equation (11) that has been used in most engineering applications is the
well-known Richter’s law which states that the cumulated number of earthquakes occurred in
a given period of time can be approximated by the relationship:

Log N(m) = a–bm (12)

Equation (12) assumes spatial and temporal independence of all earthquakes, i.e., it has the
properties of a Poisson model. Coefficients ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be derived from seismic data related
to the source of interest. Coefficient ‘a’ is related to the total number of events occurred in the
source zone and depends on its area, while coefficient ‘b’ represents the coefficient of
proportionality between log N (m) and the magnitude. Composite catalogue of earthquakes
prepared for the Madyan Region (area of 200 km radial distance from Madyan HPP), provided
the necessary database for the computation of b-value and a -value for each seismic area
source zone.

The composite earthquake catalogue of Madyan HPP, contains limited number of earthquakes
prior to 1960 and only few of these earthquakes have been assigned magnitude values. Due
to installation of WWSSN, the earthquake recording in this region improved and a better and
complete recording of earthquake data are available after 1960.

A basic assumption of seismic hazard methodology is that earthquake sources are

independent. Thus, catalogues that are used to estimate future seismic activity must be free
of dependent events such as foreshocks and aftershocks. To the extent possible such events
were also eliminated manually, however, there are insufficient data to apply rigorous
procedures such as that of Gardner and Knopoff (1974) to eliminate foreshocks and
aftershocks from the composite catalogue.

The completeness analysis of the overall data for the region showed that earthquake data up
to Mw = 4.0 is complete from January 1960.The converted moment magnitude for the period
between January 1960 and December 2022 (62 years) was therefore used in the PSHA after
excluding the aftershocks. A separate list of earthquakes occurring in each area source zone
was prepared through GIS software and magnitude-frequency curves were prepared for each
seismic area source.

44
The b-value for each seismic area source zone was calculated using linear regression through
least square method. The minimum magnitude for each area source zone was selected from
the magnitude-frequency curve based on completeness checks suggested by Woeffner and
Weimer (2005). The b–values, minimum magnitude and the activity rates for the five seismic
area source zones used in the PSHA are given in Table-1.

14.3 Computations of Vs30

Based on the Geological Maps, research papers on Madyan Geology, Geophysical survey
and sub-surface conditions of available bore hole logs of the site, the average shear wave
velocity in top 30 meters of the Madyan HPP site profile (Vs30) was assigned to be 750 m/sec
for Weir site and underground Power House. While 600 m/sec for Appurtenant Structures
above the ground.

14.4 Attenuation Relationships

Because of lack of sufficient strong–motion data covering a larger range of magnitudes and
distances, attenuation relationships for the South Asian Region cannot be developed. A
number of attenuation equations have been developed from strong motion data collected in
other parts of the world. As shallow crustal earthquakes are of more concern for hazard
analysis of the Madyan HPP, the following attenuation equations developed for such
conditions were considered for use in the hazard analysis for all seismic area sources.

1. Abrahamson- Silva (2014).

2. Boore et al. (2014).
3. Campbell-Bozorgnia (2014).
4. Idriss (2014)

For deep Hindukush area source, Zaho et. al. Japan (2006) and Youngs et al. (1997)
attenuation equation applicable for interface rocks was used.

14.5 Results of PSHA

The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was carried out using EZ-FRISK Software
developed by Risk Engineering Inc. USA. All the parameters defined in Table-1 were
incorporated in the model. The results of PSHA obtained at the Weir and underground Power
House are:
Table-2

Annual Return Peak Ground Peak Ground

Frequency of Period Acceleration Acceleration
Exceedance (years) (g), horizontal (g), vertical
0.007 145 0.23 0.15
0.002 475 0.34 0.23
0.001 945 0.43 0.29
0.0004 2475 0.56 0.37
0.0003 3000 0.59 0.39
0.0002 5000 0.68 0.45
0.0001 10000 0.80 0.53

45
The results of PSHA obtained for Appurtenant Structures above ground are:

Table-3

Annual Return Peak Ground Peak Ground

Frequency of Period Acceleration Acceleration
Exceedance (years) (g), (g), vertical
horizontal
0.007 145 0.26 0.17
0.002 475 0.39 0.26
0.001 945 0.49 0.33
0.0004 2475 0.64 0.43
0.0003 3000 0.67 0.45
0.0002 5000 0.77 0.51
0.0001 10000 0.92 0.61

The mean total hazard curve was obtained by giving equal weighting to all the attenuation
equations used. The total hazard curve obtained for the Weir site and underground Power
House is shown in Figure–13. The total hazard curve obtained for the Appurtenant Structures
above ground is shown in Figure-14.

Figure-13 Total Hazard Curves from PSHA for Weir and underground Power House.

46
Figure-14 Total Hazard Curves from PSHA for Appurtenant Structures above ground.

14.6 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA)

In the deterministic procedure, critical seismogenic sources (active or potentially active faults)
that represent a threat to the area of study are identified and a maximum magnitude is
assigned to each of these faults. The capability of the faults is ascertained through observation
of historical and instrumental seismic data and geological criteria such as rupture length –
magnitude relationship or fault movement – magnitude relationship. The maximum seismic
design parameter is then obtained by considering the most severe combination of maximum
magnitude and minimum distance to the Project site, independently of the return period.

For the Madyan HPP the available seismic and tectonic data provides several evidences of
the seismic activity along the major faults i.e., Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) and Kohistan Fault
passing south of the site and Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) passing northwest of the Project.
Based on this understanding of the seismotectonic setting and faults of the area, the
seismogenic features which may significantly influence the seismic hazard for Madyan Hydro
Power Project are:

• Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),

• Kohistan Fault,
• Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), and
• Shandur Thrust

47
 MADYAN HYDROPOWER PROJECT

DETERMINISTIC INPUT PARAMETERS

Closest Rupture
FAULT Mw Distance to RRUP RJB RX VS30 Hanging Dip ZTOR ZHYP Z1.0 Z2.5 Width
Surface Fault
Trace (km) (km) (km) (km) (m/sec) Mechanism Wall Site (deg) (km) (km) (km) (km) (km)
Main
Karakoram
Thrust
(MKT) 7.8 73 74.0 74.0 -74.0 750 Reverse No 45 2.0 10 0.1 1.0 20

Kohistan
Fault 7.3 30 30.1 30.0 30.0 750 Strike Slip NA 90 2.0 10 0.1 1.0 15
Main
Mantle
Thrust
(MMT) 7.5 37 22.0 15/0 35.0 750 Reverse Yes 45 2.0 10 0.1 1.0 20

Shandur
Fault 7.0 33 35.1 35.0 35.0 750 Reverse No 45 2.0 10 0.1 1.0 20

Table 4 Computed Input Parameters for DSHA

48
Empirical correlations have been developed between maximum potential of a fault and key
fault parameters like rupture length, fault area, fault displacement and slip rate. Out of these
fault parameters, only fault lengths are known with sufficient accuracy. For the faults around
the site, the half rupture length of the faults has been taken for determination of maximum
magnitude potential. The maximum earthquake magnitude (in moment magnitude Mw) of
each of the fault was calculated using Wells & Coppersmith (1994), Nowroozi (1997) and
Slemmons et al. (1982) relationships between fault rupture length and magnitude given in
Table-5 below:

Table-5 Critical Faults and Their Maximum Earthquake Potential

Maximum Magnitude Potential (MW) Selected
Fault Rupture Wells & Maximum
Tectonic Feature Nowroozi Slemmons
Length Coppersmith magnitude
(1985) et al. (1982)
(Km) (1994) MW
Main Karakoram
200 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8
Thrust (MKT)

Kohistan Fault 75 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3

Main Mantle
110 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5
Thrust (MMT)

Shandur Thrust 45 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0

The peak horizontal ground acceleration at the site caused by the earthquake of maximum
magnitude occurring at the closest distance to fault was then calculated by using the latest
attenuation relationships developed by various researchers from strong motion data from USA
and Worldwide. As shallow crustal earthquakes are more important for the assessment of
seismic hazard to the Project, therefore equations applicable for shallow crustal earthquakes
were employed.

For the deterministic analysis, the same four NGA West2 equations (2014) used for PSHA
were employed. The 50-percentile (median) values of the peak horizontal ground acceleration
(PGA) were obtained by four NGA West2 attenuation relationships are given in Table-5. The
NGA West2 equations are preferable over the older equations for the evaluation of seismic
hazard in the near field as these are based on a broad spectrum of data recorded in the near
field. For all the seismic sources, thrust rupture mechanism have been assumed.

The site foundation condition was assumed as dense soil/soft rock with shear wave velocity
of Vs30=750 m/sec. The site is on the hanging wall for MMT whereas it is on footwall for other
faults. Computed Input Parameters for DSHA are given in Table-4 .

49
 Table-5 PGA Values of Critical Seismotectonic Features
Tectonic Feature Maximum Closest Average Average
Magnitude Distance Horizontal Vertical
Mw To Fault
km g g
Main Karakorum 7.8 73 0.07 0.05
Thrust (MKT)
Kohistan Fault 7.3 30 0.13 0.09

Main Mantle Thrust 7.5 37 0.20 0.13

(MMT)
Shandur Fault 7.0 33 0.10 0.07

15.0 SEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS

Definitions

According to the ICOLD Bulletin 148 (2016), the definitions of design earthquakes are as
follows:

15.1 Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE)

According to the definition given in ICOLD guidelines (2016), “the MCE (Maximum Credible
Earthquake) is the largest conceivable earthquake that appears possible along a recognized
fault or within a geographically designated tectonic province, under the presently known or
presumed tectonic framework”. The most severe ground motion affecting a Project site due to
an MCE scenario is referred to as the MCE ground motion.

Evaluation of the MCE ground motion is generally done using a deterministic approach, in
which the MCE scenario for each identified fault and tectonic province are taken into account.
The return period of the MCE ground motion generally cannot be determined.

If no obvious earthquake scenarios exist, the ground motions at a dam site are generally
estimated using a probabilistic approach, and the ground motions are typically linked to a long
return period, for example 10,000 years. Such ground motions estimated using a probabilistic
approach may be either lower or stronger than MCE ground motions evaluated using a
deterministic approach, depending on factors such as the type of uncertainties incorporated
in each approach.

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15.2 Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE)

As per ICOLD guidelines (2016) the Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) is the maximum
level of ground motion for which the dam should be designed or analyzed. For dams whose
failure would present a great social hazard, the SEE will normally be characterized by a level
of motion equal to that expected at the dam site from the occurrence of deterministically
evaluated MCE or of the probabilistically-evaluated earthquake ground motion with a very long
return period, for example 10,000 years. Deterministically evaluated earthquakes may be
more appropriate in locations with relatively frequent earthquakes that occur on well-defined
sources, for example near plate boundaries.
It will be required at least that there is no uncontrolled release of water when the dam is
subjected to the seismic load imposed by the SEE. Depending on the circumstances (e.g., the
importance of the dam, the consequences of a dam failure) it is recommended to design
safety-critical elements such as the bottom outlet and/or spillway gates for the SEE.
Where there is not a great risk to human life the SEE may be chosen to have a lower return
period depending on the consequences of dam failure.

15.3 Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE)

According to ICOLD guidelines “Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) represents the level of
ground motion at the dam site at which only minor damage is acceptable. The dam,
appurtenant structures and equipment should remain functional and damage should be easily
repairable, from the recurrence of the earthquake shaking not exceeding the OBE”.
In theory, the OBE can be determined from an economic risk analysis but this is not always
practical or feasible. In many cases, it will be appropriate to choose a minimum return period
of 145 years (I.e., a 50 % probability of not being exceeded in 100 years), Since the
consequences of exceeding the OBE are normally economic, it may be justified to use a more
or less severe event for the OBE (i.e., longer or shorter recurrence period).

15.4 Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) for Appurtenant Structures

As a minimum, appurtenant structures (penstocks, powerhouses, intake structures, rock

caverns etc.) should be designed in accordance with the applicable seismic code for buildings
or other structures. Consequently, the site -specific design earthquake ground motion should
have a return period equal to that specified in the seismic building codes, which is typically
475 years.

The ground motions for OBE, SEE and other appurtenant structures are selected in
accordance with the recommendations given in Section 3.4 of ICOLD Guidelines Bulletin 148
(2016) which are reproduced below:

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  The typical seismic input parameters for analysis of dams include acceleration
time histories, spectral accelerations, or peak ground acceleration developed by
either a deterministic or a probabilistic approach, as follows:
• For extreme or high consequence dams the SEE ground motion parameters
should be estimated at the 84 th percentile level if developed by a deterministic
approach, and need not have a mean annual exceedance probability (AEP)
smaller than 1/10,000 if developed by a probabilistic approach.
• For moderate consequence dams the SEE ground motion parameters should be
estimated at the 50th to 84th percentile level if developed by a deterministic
approach, and need not have a mean AEP smaller than 1/3,000 if developed by
a probabilistic approach.
• For low consequence dams the SEE ground motion parameters should be
estimated at the 50th percentile level if developed by a deterministic approach
and need not have a mean AEP smaller than 1/1,000 if developed by a
probabilistic approach.
• The ground motions for the OBE will usually have a mean AEP of about 1/145.

15.5 Selection Of Seismic Design Parameters (SDP)

Since Madyan HPP is of Moderate Category, therefore, Design Seismic Parameters are being
selected on the basis of the results provided by PSHA approach, and in compliance with the
recommendations of the ICOLD Bulletin 148 (2016).

15.5.1 Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) Accelerations

Madyan HPP has a 16-meter-high Weir with reservoir capacity around 1 Mm3 which is
expected to cause moderate downstream damage in case of dam failure. Till the results of a
dam-break study is available, its impact for damage due to flooding on the downstream is
assumed as Medium Adverse. If failure of the dam may not present a great social hazard,
SEE may be taken lower than the MCE. For the Weir of the Madyan HPP, the most critical
tectonic feature controlling the MCE is the Shandur Thrust dipping away from site which may
cause maximum acceleration at the Weir site. This would be a magnitude 7.0 earthquake
occurring at a distance of about 33 km from the site.

However, designer can choose a lower Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) acceleration
considering the economical hazard involved as per ICOLD Guidelines (Bulletin 148 - 2016)
which recommends to adopt 10,000 years return period ground motion for High and Extreme
Consequence Dam, 3,000 years return period ground motion for Moderate Consequence Dam
and 975 years return period ground motion for Low Consequence Dam.
As Madyan Weir is categorized as Moderate Consequence Dam, the recommended ground
motion for SEE is 0.59g (corresponding to a return period of 3,000), (Table-2).

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15.5.2 Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) Accelerations

The OBE accelerations are selected from the results of the probabilistic analysis which are
presented in Figure 14 in terms of annual frequency of exceedance of different levels of ground
motion for weir site. The purpose of the OBE design is to protect water retaining structures
against economic losses from damage or loss of service for all project structures. The
performance requirement is that the project functions with little or no damage or interruption
under OBE conditions. For all project structures, OBE is recommended to be taken
corresponding to 50% probability of exceedance in 100-year project life (i.e., a return period
of 145 years) for which PGA value is 0.23g (Table-2).

15.5.3 Design Basis Earthquake for Appurtenant Structures Accelerations

For the design of all other appurtenant structures of the Project including tunnel and
underground Power House structures, ICOLD recommends to use ground motion having 475
years return period. The recommended ground motion for design earthquake for appurtenant
structures and underground Power House is therefore 0.39g (Table-3).

15.6 Uniform Hazard Spectra

The uniform hazard response spectra for earthquakes of different return periods obtained
through probabilistic analysis are shown in Figures-15 for Weir and underground Power House
sites. The response spectra for 145-year return period are applicable for OBE, response
spectra for 475-year return period are applicable for DBE for appurtenant structures and
response spectra for 3,000-year return period is applicable for the SEE.

Figure-15 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Weir Site and underground Power House.

53
 MADYAN HYDROPOWER PROJECT
Spectral Ordinates for Uniform Hazard Response Spectra (PSHA)

Sa Sa Sa Sa Sa
Period Return Return Return Return Return
Period=145 Period=475 Period=975 Period=3,000 Period=10,000
(sec) (g) (g) (g) (g) (g)
PGA 0.230 0.341 0.427 0.586 0.800
0.05 0.360 0.538 0.675 0.934 1.269
0.07 0.444 0.671 0.845 1.175 1.633
0.1 0.519 0.792 1.009 1.410 2.016
0.15 0.536 0.819 1.041 1.459 2.081
0.2 0.497 0.752 0.951 1.320 1.864
0.25 0.446 0.673 0.846 1.175 1.634
0.3 0.393 0.587 0.738 1.027 1.402
0.4 0.315 0.467 0.581 0.801 1.097
0.5 0.268 0.396 0.491 0.671 0.916
0.75 0.182 0.270 0.336 0.461 0.629
1 0.135 0.203 0.252 0.348 0.479
2 0.064 0.097 0.121 0.168 0.232
3 0.035 0.055 0.070 0.098 0.136
4 0.025 0.038 0.050 0.071 0.099

Figure 15 A. Spectral Ordinates for Uniform Hazard Response Spectra (PSHA)

Figure16 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Appurtenant Structures above ground.

54
16.0 ACCELERATION TIME HISTORIES (ATS)
Acceleration Time Histories (ATH0 scaled foe SEE, DBE and OBE are presented below for
further necessary processing by the Structural Engineers. {Figures 17 below}

SEE

SEE

55
SEE

DBE

56
DBE

DBE

57
OBE

OBE

58
 OBE

17.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The conclusions and recommendations regarding study of seismotectonic setting of Madyan

Hydro Power Project (HPP) and the resulting seismic design parameters are as follows:

1. Madyan Seismic Region (MSR) and Northern Pakistan are more sensitive to
earthquake activity than the other segments of Pakistan, because they are surrounded
by the micro plates of Afghanistan, Iran and India. Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),
Kohistan Fault, Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) and Shandur Fault are the major faults
located in the MSR (an area of 200 km radial distance from Madyan HPP).

2. The Project is located in the Kohistan Island Arc which is sandwiched between Indian
and the Eurasian tectonic plates and very active seismically. A number of active faults
are present in and around the Project area.

3. The most recent strong earthquake that has occurred in the MSR is the Mw=7.6
Kashmir-Hazara of October 08, 2005 earthquake, resulting in 72,763 fatalities and
6,8697 injuries alone in Pakistan. Similar earthquakes are likely to occur in the future,
and it is thus important to evaluate the seismic performance of structures based on
reliable ground motion scenarios.

59
4. During the past, MSR has been hit by several destructive earthquakes with Intensities
reaching XI. Building Code of Pakistan 2021 has placed Kalam Valley in Seismic
Danger Zone of 3 (Moderate).

5. Along the MSR, the seismic activity is mainly associated with the micro earthquakes
and macro earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.0, and largely coincides with the surface trace of
the defined faults.

6. As per Deterministic Hazard Analysis the Shandur fault is present about 33 km of the
Madyan HPP site. The fault is dipping towards the northwest away from Project site.
Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) assigned to the fault is Mw 7.0.

7. The recommended horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) associated with

Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) is 0.23g.

8. The Weir of Madyan HPP is assumed to fall in the moderate risk consequences
category. The recommended horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) associated
with Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) is 0.59g which is associates with ground
motion having return period of 3,000 years.

9. All the underground appurtenant structures at the weir, tunnel and underground Power
House are recommended to be designed for horizontal PGA of 0.34g, which is
associated with ground motion having return period of 475 years.

10. The Appurtenant Structures above ground are recommended to be designed for
horizontal PGA of 0.39g, which is associated with ground motion having return period
of 475 years.

11. Uniform hazard spectra for SEE, OBE and Design earthquake for appurtenant
structures are given for use in the seismic resistant design of the Project Structures.
The response spectra for 145-year return period are applicable for OBE, response
spectra for 475-year return period are applicable for DBE for appurtenant structures
and response spectra for 3,000-year return period is applicable for the SEE.

12. Excel files of Acceleration Time Histories (ATH) scaled for SEE, OBE and DBE have
been uploaded for further analysis through Computer Software by the Structural
Engineers.

13. Excel files of Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS) for Weir and underground Power
House have been uploaded for further analysis through Computer Software by the
Structural Engineers.

14. For safety monitoring purpose Strong Motion Accelerographs (SMA’s) must be
installed at the Weir, Tunnel, Power House sites and free field sites of rock and
alluvium. The SMA’s may be from World renowned Companies, like M/S Kinemetrics
Inc USA and M/S GeoSIG Inc, Switzerland. Installation of SMA’s may be carried out
under the supervision of an experienced Consultant Seismologist.

60
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APPENDICES

I
II
III
IV
V
VI