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The document analyzes monthly rainfall patterns and climate indices, revealing significant upward trends in precipitation, particularly from July to October, and increasing rainfall intensity over time. It highlights the implications of these trends for flood risk management, water resources planning, and agricultural adaptation due to changing rainfall characteristics. The analysis successfully meets objectives related to trend identification, extreme event assessment, and climate change signal detection, providing valuable insights for decision support in managing local precipitation regimes.

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Swathi K
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9 views4 pages

REPORT

The document analyzes monthly rainfall patterns and climate indices, revealing significant upward trends in precipitation, particularly from July to October, and increasing rainfall intensity over time. It highlights the implications of these trends for flood risk management, water resources planning, and agricultural adaptation due to changing rainfall characteristics. The analysis successfully meets objectives related to trend identification, extreme event assessment, and climate change signal detection, providing valuable insights for decision support in managing local precipitation regimes.

Uploaded by

Swathi K
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Monthly Rainfall Pattern Analysis

1. Seasonal Trends:
o There's a clear seasonal pattern with lowest rainfall in winter months (January,
February) and highest in summer months (June, July).
o The wettest period occurs in June-July with means of 21.81 and 25.28
respectively.
2. Significant Increasing Trends:
o Four months show statistically significant increasing trends (p < 0.05):
 July: Strong upward shift (Z=2.68, p=0.007) with Sen's slope of 0.41
 August: Upward shift (Z=2.11, p=0.035) with Sen's slope of 0.251
 September: Strong upward shift (Z=2.89, p=0.004) with Sen's slope of
0.334
 October: Borderline significant (Z=1.96, p=0.05) with Sen's slope of 0.151
3. Annual Trend:
o The annual precipitation shows a significant upward shift (Z=3.07, p=0.002) with
Sen's slope of 0.1, indicating a gradual increase in overall rainfall over the 30-year
period.
4. Variability:
o Winter months show higher coefficient of variation (>0.7) indicating more
variable rainfall patterns.
o Summer months show more consistent rainfall (lower coefficient of variation,
especially July at 0.3027).

Climate Indices Analysis


1. Precipitation Totals (PRCPTOT):
o There appears to be an increasing trend in annual precipitation from 2015 to 2045.
o Notable high precipitation years include 2037 (4337mm), 2041 (4078mm), and
2045 (4107mm).
o The data shows considerable year-to-year variability.
2. Heavy Rainfall Events:
o Heavy rainfall days (R10, R20, Rnn) are generally increasing over time.
o Recent years (2041-2045) show the highest frequency of rainfall days exceeding
thresholds.
o 2041 had the most days with rainfall ≥10mm (147 days).
o 2044 had 91 days with rainfall ≥20mm.
3. Extreme Precipitation:
o Maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) shows high variability with an extreme
value in 2026 (193.96mm).
o Similarly, 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day) shows peaks in 2026 and 2030
(approximately 400mm).
o R95p (very wet days) shows an increasing trend, with particularly high values in
2030 (1584mm) and 2037 (1728mm).
4. Rainfall Intensity:
o Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) shows an increasing trend, suggesting more
intense rainfall events.
o The period 2037-2045 shows consistently higher SDII values (>17mm/day).
5. Wet/Dry Periods:
o Consecutive wet days (CWD) shows high variability with a notable peak in 2020
(133 days).
o Consecutive dry days (CDD) also varies considerably, with highest values in 2029
(86 days) and 2042 (83 days).

Combined Inferences
1. Climate Change Signals:
o Both datasets provide evidence of changing precipitation patterns, with increasing
annual totals and more extreme rainfall events.
o The significant upward trends in July-October rainfall in the first dataset align
with the overall increasing trend in extreme precipitation indices in the second
dataset.
2. Increasing Rainfall Intensity:
o The data suggests not only more rain overall but also more intense rainfall events,
as shown by increasing SDII, R95p, and R99p values.
3. Potential Implications:
o The increasing trends in both datasets suggest potential climate change impacts on
the local precipitation regime.
o The increases in extreme rainfall events could have implications for flood risk
management and water resources planning.
o Agricultural planning may need to adapt to changing rainfall patterns, particularly
the significant trends in the July-October period.

These inferences are based solely on the statistical patterns observed in the provided datasets and
would benefit from additional contextual information about the geographic location and climate
system of the area being analyzed.

How Objectives Were Met Through the


Results
Objective 1: Trend Identification

The analysis successfully identified statistically significant trends in the monthly and annual
precipitation data:

 Four months (July, August, September, and October) showed statistically significant upward
trends with p-values < 0.05
 The annual precipitation data revealed a strong upward shift (Z=3.07, p=0.002) with a Sen's
slope of 0.1
 These findings provided clear evidence of changing precipitation patterns over the 30-year
period

Objective 2: Rainfall Characteristic Analysis

The results offered detailed insights into changing rainfall characteristics:

 The Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) showed an increasing trend over time, particularly in the
2037-2045 period with values consistently above 17mm/day
 Monthly coefficients of variation revealed higher variability in winter months (>0.7) compared to
more consistent summer rainfall patterns
 Year-to-year variability in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) was quantified, showing considerable
fluctuations

Objective 3: Extreme Event Assessment

The analysis effectively assessed shifts in extreme precipitation:

 Very wet days (R95p) showed a clear increasing trend with notable peaks in 2030 (1584mm) and
2037 (1728mm)
 Maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) revealed high variability with an extreme value of
193.96mm in 2026
 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day) demonstrated similar patterns with peaks around
400mm

Objective 4: Seasonal Pattern Evaluation

The results provided clear insights into seasonal patterns:

 A distinct seasonal cycle was identified with lowest rainfall in winter months and highest in
summer
 The significant increasing trends were concentrated in the July-October period
 Winter months showed greater variability in precipitation compared to summer months

Objective 5: Climate Change Signal Detection

The analysis successfully detected signals consistent with climate change impacts:

 Both datasets revealed evidence of changing precipitation patterns with increasing annual totals
 The increase in extreme rainfall events aligns with climate change projections
 The combined trends in intensity, frequency, and seasonal shifts present a coherent picture of
changing rainfall regimes
Objective 6: Decision Support Development

The results provided valuable decision support information:

 Identified months with significant increasing trends (July-October) that require particular
attention for water management
 Quantified the increasing frequency of heavy rainfall days (R10, R20, Rnn)
 Highlighted potential flood risks through analysis of consecutive wet days (CWD) and extreme
precipitation metrics
 Provided evidence-based insights for agricultural planning, particularly regarding the changing
patterns during growing seasons

The comprehensive analysis of both datasets effectively addressed all six objectives, delivering
valuable insights into precipitation trends, characteristics, and extreme events that can inform
climate adaptation strategies.

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