Adani Green Energy - Emkay 30, Aprl 2025
Adani Green Energy - Emkay 30, Aprl 2025
AGEL’s consolidated Q4FY25 EBITDA rose 31% YoY to Rs24bn (up 28% QoQ), Target Price – 12M Mar-26
led by 30% YoY uptick in operational capacity and improvement in CUF (Khavda Change in TP (%) -
achieved 32% in Q4), leading to 44% growth in sale of power. Book realization Current Reco. BUY
was stable QoQ, while share of merchant+infirm rose to 33%. Net debt rose Previous Reco. BUY
Upside/(Downside) (%) 62.7
37% YoY to Rs729bn amid cash-flow capex of Rs248bn in FY25. The
management highlighted that the rains impacted Khavda project work in FY25,
thus slowing capacity addition to 3.3GW, though FY26 guidance is healthy at Stock Data ADANIGR IN
5GW, with 1GW likely to be commissioned within a month. AGEL now targets 52-week High (Rs) 2,174
merchant+C&I share of ~25%; PSP exposure would also grow. AGEL’s FY25 52-week Low (Rs) 758
EBITDA/APAT was slightly better than our estimate. We retain our assumptions Shares outstanding (mn) 1,584.0
and earnings estimates, along with our TP at Rs1,500; maintain BUY. Market-cap (Rs bn) 1,461
Market-cap (USD mn) 17,139
Result Highlights
AGEL reported Q4FY25 consol revenue of Rs30.7bn, up 22% YoY and 31% QoQ. Core Net-debt, FY26E (Rs mn) 845,463.1
power supply revenue rose 37% YoY and 34% QoQ to Rs26.7bn, largely led by better ADTV-3M (mn shares) 5
CUFs and effective capacity addition. Share of merchant and infirm power rose to 33% ADTV-3M (Rs mn) 4,491.1
vs 28% QoQ. Book realization was marginally up QoQ at Rs3.4/kwh in Q4FY25. Power ADTV-3M (USD mn) 52.7
supply EBITDA was up 36% YoY and 33% QoQ to Rs24.5bn, with EBITDAM steady at Free float (%) 31.0
~92%. Finance cost was up 9% QoQ at Rs13.7bn. Forex gain came in at Rs90mn, while Nifty-50 24,335.9
exceptional loss stood at Rs1.7bn. Share of profit from associates-JVs was 23% higher INR/USD 85.3
QoQ at Rs910mn (~2x YoY). ETR was higher at 29%. Capacity stood at 14.2GW as of
FY25-end. Solar/wind/hybrid CUF stood at 28.5%/22.0%/38.5% in Q4FY25 vs Shareholding, Mar-25
2030. AGEL aims to achieve a 75% PPA+hybrid and 25% merchant+C&I portfolio going Rel. to Nifty (6.0) (11.1) (52.5)
ahead. It has ~30GW of PPA LoA and 3GW of merchant capacity. LoA was 9.6GW and
6.5GW of PPA were signed in FY25. Khavda transmission capacity is growing adequately, 1-Year share price trend (Rs)
with 4GW to be added by Jun-25 and 7GW by year-end. Merchant rates for solar are
Rs3.1-3.2/unit currently, and for solar with REC are Rs3.6-3.7/unit; while merchant rates Rs % 20
1950 10
for wind are Rs5.5/unit and for wind with REC are Rs6/unit. Expiry of the ISTS waiver 0
1750
would create further value. FY26 5GW capex is 95% tied up. -10
1550
-20
Valuation 1350 -30
-40
We value AGEL at 13x FY31E EV/EBITDA, discounted at 15% (CoE) to Mar-26E which is 1150
-50
reasonably conservative and backed by the 30-50% revenue-earnings CAGR. Key risks: 950
-60
project execution, policy, equipment inflation, technology, and resource yield-related. 750
Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25
-70
Consolidated (Rs mn) Q4FY24 Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25 YoY QoQ FY24 FY25 YoY
Revenue 25,270 28,340 30,550 23,400 30,730 22% 31% 92,200 113,020 23%
Expenditure 6,930 4,140 7,830 4,600 6,710 -3% 46% 19,020 23,280 22%
EBITDA 18,340 24,200 22,720 18,800 24,020 31% 28% 73,180 89,740 23%
Depreciation 4,970 5,930 6,180 6,180 6,630 33% 7% 19,030 24,920 31%
EBIT 13,370 18,270 16,540 12,620 17,390 30% 38% 54,150 64,820 20%
Finance Cost 12,240 14,400 13,690 12,510 13,680 12% 9% 50,240 54,280 8%
Other Income 2,790 2,660 3,210 2,960 2,140 -23% -28% 12,400 10,970 -12%
PBT Before Exceptionals 3,920 6,530 6,060 3,070 5,850 49% 91% 16,310 21,510 32%
Forex Gain/(Loss) 350 220 (670) - (90) (30) (540)
Exceptional Item (800) (470) (970) (160) (1,660) (2,460) (3,260)
PBT 2,770 5,840 5,760 2,910 4,280 55% 47% 13,880 18,790 35%
Tax 820 1,790 260 (1,090) 1,180 44% 4,110 2,140 -48%
PAT 1,950 4,050 5,500 4,000 3,100 59% -23% 9,770 16,650 70%
Assoc-JV Profit Share 450 1,800 990 740 910 102% 23% 2,890 4,440 54%
Minority Interest (MI) 1,600 1,830 2,390 (180) 1,530 1,590 5,570
PAT After MI 800 4,020 4,100 4,920 2,480 210% -50% 11,070 15,520 40%
EPS (Rs) 0.9 2.8 1.7 3.1 1.5 53% -53% 6.9 9.1 31%
Operational Capacity (MW) 10,934 10,934 11,184 11,609 14,243 30% 23% 10,934 14,243 30%
Solar 7,393 7,393 7,393 7,756 10,103 37% 30% 7,393 10,103 37%
Wind 1,401 1,401 1,651 1,713 2,000 43% 17% 1,401 2,000 43%
Hybrid 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 0% 0% 2,140 2,140 0%
CUF
Solar 25.4% 25.4% 22.5% 22.5% 28.5% 24.5% 24.7%
Wind 21.6% 36.2% 35.3% 17.5% 22.0% 30.0% 27.8%
Hybrid 38.0% 46.0% 39.8% 33.7% 38.5% 40.8% 39.5%
Sale of Power (MU) 5,457 7,356 6,772 5,980 7,861 44% 31% 21,813 27,969 28%
Solar 3,066 4,098 3,653 3,759 5,228 71% 39% 11,024 16,738 52%
Wind 614 1,110 1,238 636 850 38% 34% 3,117 3,834 23%
Hybrid 1,777 2,148 1,881 1,585 1,783 0% 12% 7,672 7,397 -4%
Book Realization (Rs/kwh) 3.56 3.44 3.41 3.33 3.39 -5% 2% 3.55 3.39 -4%
Merchant+Infirm Share 5% 22% 25% 28% 33% 1% 27%
Power Supply Revenue 19,410 25,280 23,080 19,930 26,660 37% 34% 77,350 94,950 23%
Power Supply EBITDA 18,100 23,740 21,440 18,480 24,530 36% 33% 72,220 88,190 22%
EBITDAM 93% 94% 93% 93% 92% 93% 93%
Net Debt 532,750 581,750 729,330 532,750 729,330 37%
⏹ AGEL added 3.3GW of RE capacity in FY25, totalling 14.2GW by year-end despite Khavda
being affected by the rains and the challenging environment. This was more than double
of any other Indian developer’s and contributed to 16% of India’s solar and 14% of wind
additions during FY25. AGEL has, by now, added almost 4GW in Khavda. Another 1GW
of capacity is nearing completion and should be commissioned by 15-May-25, taking the
total to 15.2GW.
⏹ Khavda has achieved 32% solar CUF in Q4FY25 on the back of efficient technologies like
bifacial module, trackers, etc. Current quarter CUF runrate is even better, and for full
year, commensurate levels would be achieved. Capacity added last year has stabilized
and is generating output now. The company added 1GW in Rajasthan, in FY25. Hybrid
capacity is under commissioning. Wind CUF should improve.
⏹ Overall capacity addition guidance for FY26 is 5GW while, going ahead, capacity add
would see ~25% CAGR with 30GW Khavda target by 2029 and 50GW overall by 2030. A
number of project initiatives have been taken, and FY25 learnings have been imbibed.
AGEL aims for a 75% PPA+hybrid and 25% merchant+C&I portfolio going ahead.
⏹ AGEL has ~30GW of PPA LoA and 3GW of merchant capacity. LoA stood at 9.6GW and a
6.5GW PPA was signed in FY25. MSEDCL phasing would be 2+1+1GW, as per timelines.
Khavda transmission capacity is growing adequately with 4GW to be added by Jun-25
and 7GW by year-end. The Ministry of Power is actively monitoring this wrt adherence to
timelines.
⏹ 14% of the 14.2GW is merchant capacity, but infirm+merchant share rose significantly
in Q4FY25, thereby benefiting the company. Merchant rates for solar are Rs3.1-3.2/unit
currently, and for solar with REC are Rs3.6-3.7/unit; while for wind, merchant rates are
Rs5.5/unit and for wind with REC are Rs6/unit. Expiry of the ISTS waiver would create
further value on existing merchant capacities. Merchant supply would be mostly wind,
though C&I and PSPs will add up going ahead.
⏹ The Chitravathi PSP project would demonstrate commissioning of a PSP in the least
possible time – this is the main focus. The UPPCL project has a 72-month timeline.
Funding for capex is mostly tied up and sanctions are in place. FY26 5GW capex is 95%
tied up.
Current Target
Consolidated (Rs bn)
FY25/24-end FY31/30-end
EBITDA 89 437
Target EV/EBITDA (x) 23 13
EV 2,034 5,679
Net Debt (Phase Adjusted) 539 1,408
Equity Value 1,495 4,271
Profit from Assoc - Minority Interest -1 -5
Target P/E (x) 30 25
Value of Net Minority -34 -115
Target Equity Value 1,461 4,156
Discounted Equity Value (15% CoE, Mar-26E) 2,376
Stock Price (Rs) 922 1,500
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E Y/E Mar FY24 FY25 FY26E FY27E FY28E
PBT (ex-other income) 6,770 13,420 37,183 53,599 76,493 P/E (x) 118.9 88.4 48.3 35.4 26.1
Others (non-cash items) 5,950 5,070 6,003 6,416 6,766 P/CE(x) 46.7 35.2 24.2 18.4 14.3
Taxes paid (500) (2,220) (8,177) (13,043) (20,521) P/B (x) 15.9 13.6 7.3 6.0 4.9
Change in NWC 4,170 (4,600) (8,925) 710 20,728 EV/Sales (x) 22.0 19.8 16.0 13.8 11.6
Operating cash flow 77,130 83,640 110,736 152,243 211,200 EV/EBITDA (x) 27.2 24.7 18.5 15.5 12.8
Capital expenditure (157,000) (247,610) (246,550) (273,550) (279,350) EV/EBIT(x) 36.8 34.3 24.5 20.4 16.5
Interest & dividend income 8,070 7,220 5,303 5,561 5,749 FCFF yield (%) (4.0) (7.5) (5.7) (4.8) (2.5)
Investing cash flow (210,600) (198,270) (236,547) (263,134) (268,584) FCFE yield (%) (8.4) (14.5) (12.8) (12.6) (10.1)
Payment of lease liabilities (2,120) (2,700) 0 0 0 Net profit margin (%) 13.3 14.7 21.1 23.1 24.9
Interest paid (46,010) (49,850) (63,272) (75,395) (90,346) Total asset turnover (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dividend paid (incl tax) - - - - - Assets/Equity (x) 9.3 9.1 7.1 5.9 5.6
Others 24,930 31,390 5,900 6,400 6,900 RoE (%) 16.3 16.6 19.9 18.7 20.7
Net chg in Cash 6,060 6,050 (62,461) 6,060 6,685 NOPLAT margin (%) 43.9 51.1 51.7 52.1 52.2
OCF 77,130 83,640 110,736 152,243 211,200 IC turnover (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Adj. OCF (w/o NWC chg.) 72,960 88,240 119,661 151,533 190,472 RoIC (%) 7.7 8.7 9.3 9.5 10.2
FCFE (122,070) (211,560) (193,783) (191,141) (152,747) Core NWC days (13.2) (94.9) (56.3) (52.3) (78.9)
OCF/EBITDA (%) 105.4 94.2 86.6 92.5 100.1 Total NWC days (13.2) (94.9) (56.3) (52.3) (78.9)
FCFE/PAT (%) (1,241.8) (1,594.3) (615.6) (445.1) (262.4) Fixed asset turnover 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
FCFF/NOPLAT (%) (197.3) (286.3) (176.0) (125.2) (56.0) Opex-to-revenue (%) 7.8 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.5
31-Aug-23
30-Dec-23
27-Dec-24
29-Apr-24
28-Aug-24
27-Apr-25
02-May-23
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Emkay Research
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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