Gland Pharma Ltd HOLD
Results Update
Target Price
07th August 2024 Pharma
2,000
Margins Impacted by Subsidiary; Maintain HOLD
(CMP as of 06 Aug 2024)
Est. Vs. Actual for Q1FY25: Revenue – MISS; EBITDA Margin – MISS; PAT –MISS CMP (Rs) 2,120
Changes in Estimates post Q1FY25 Upside /Downside (%) -5.0%
High/Low (Rs) 2,221/1301
FY25E/FY26E: Revenue: -2.0%/1.0%; EBITDA Abs: -17.3%/-8.2%; PAT: -19.7%/-8.3%
Market cap (Cr) 34,870
Recommendation Rationale Avg. daily vol. (6m)Shrs. 2,72,564
No. of shares (Cr) 16.5
• GLAND (Ex-Cenexi) registered a revenue growth of 14.2% YoY, maintaining EBITDA
margins of ~29%, which is in line with preceding quarters on a YoY basis. Shareholding (%)
• The acquired company – Cenexi reported revenue of Rs 388 Cr (7% QoQ), EBITDA Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Promoter 57.9 57.9 51.8
loss of – Rs 29 Cr, and EBITDA margins of -7% YoY. However, in Cenexi itself, the
FIIs 4.1 3.6 6.9
company has improved operational effiencies and cut down its losses to ~13% on
MFs / UTI 21.3 23.0 30.5
QoQ basis, demonstrating upwards trend.
Banks / FIs 0.0 0.0 0.0
• Maintaining an annual revenue growth rate of ~14-15% appears to be the company’s Others 16.8 15.5 10.8
target, considering the expanded base resulting from recent initiatives.
Financial & Valuations
Sector Outlook: Positive Y/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Sales 5,665 6,270 6,943
Company Outlook & Guidance: Investing in capacity expansion through Capex reflects
EBITDA 1,334 1,731 1,986
the company's commitment to meeting future demand, capturing new opportunities in the Net Profit 772 1,140 1,300
market while improving customer service. EPS (Rs) 46.9 69.2 78.9
PER (x) 38.3 25.9 22.8
Current Valuation: PE 26x for FY26E earnings (Earlier Valuation: PE 25x)
P/BV (x) 21.1 15.8 13.2
Current TP: Rs 2,000/share (Earlier TP: Rs 1,950/share) EV/EBITDA (x) 3.4 3.0 2.6
ROE (%) 8.8 11.6 11.6
Recommendation: HOLD
Change in Estimates (%)
Outlook:
Y/E Mar FY25E FY26E
Investing in capacity expansion through Capex reflects the company's commitment to
Sales -2.0% 1.0%
meeting future demand and capturing new opportunities in the market. Overall, it appears EBITDA -17.3% -8.2%
that the company is on a path of strategic improvement and is cautiously optimistic about PAT -19.7% -8.3%
its future prospects.
ESG disclosure Score**
Valuation &Recommendation: Environmental Disclosure NA
Considering the negative impact of the Cenexi acquisition on consolidated margins and Social Disclosure Score NA
Governance Disclosure Score NA
profitability, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock as we also acknoladge positive
Total ESG Disclosure Score NA
growth prospects and effective cost management of the company. We assign a TP of 2,000
Sector Average NA
to the company, implying a downside potential of approximately 5%. This valuation is based
Source: Bloomberg, Scale: 0.1-100
on a PE multiple of 26x for FY25. **Note: This score measures the amount of ESG data
a company reports publicly and does not measure
the company's performance on any data point. All
Key Financials (Consolidated) scores are based on 2022 disclosures
Variance
(Rs Cr) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Axis Est. Relative performance
%
Net Sales 1,402 -8.8 16.0 1,495 -6.2
225
EBITDA 265 -26.3 -10.0 365 -27.5
EBITDA Margin 18.9% -447 -546 30.5% - 25
Net Profit 144 -25.2 -25.8 232 -37.9 Feb-23 Aug-23 Feb-24 Aug-24
EPS (Rs) 8.7 -25.2 -25.8 14.1 -37.9 Gland BSE Sensex
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
Source: AceEquity
Ankush Mahajan
Research Analyst
Email: [email protected]
1
Financial Performance
GLAND (Ex-Cenexi) registered a revenue growth of 14.2% YoY, maintaining EBITDA margins of ~29%, which is
consistent with preceding quarters on a YoY basis. The growth was driven by volume growth in the existing
portfolio, new launches, and milestone income. The acquired company – Cenexi reported revenue of Rs 388 Cr
(7% QoQ), EBITDA loss of Rs 29 Cr, and EBITDA margins of -7% YoY. The consolidated revenue stood at Rs
1,402 Cr, 16%/-9% YoY/QoQ while the company’s consolidated EBITDA margins were at 18.9% (down by -
546bps/-447bps YoY/QoQ) largely impacted by Cenexi. GLAND reported a profit of Rs 144 crore, which lags
behind their profit from the previous quarter.
In Q1FY25, GLAND’s significant efforts helpsed it stabilize and regain its lost ground in terms of market share in
the USA. New product launches appear to have been effective in driving growth, particularly with key products
such as Eribulin mesylate, Nelarabine, and Edaravone. Additionally, measures taken by the last year resulted in
improved costs and effecincies.
Maintaining an annual revenue growth rate of approximately 14% to 15% is the target, reflecting a balanced
approach that aims to ensure stability and sustainability while leveraging the expanded base from recent initiatives.
Key Concall Highlights
• Guidance: In Q2FY25, lower activity levels are anticipated due to the European holiday season and
scheduled summer maintenance shutdowns. Despite these short-term challenges, we expect Cenexi to
breach the threshold limit of €200 Mn in revenue, with positive EBITDA projected to materialize by the
end of Q4FY25.
• Base Business: Excluding Cenexi, the base business reported revenue of Rs 1,013 Cr, reflecting a
14% increase YoY. Gross margins have remained relatively stable, aligning with EBIT margins.
• Cenexi: The Company recorded revenue of Rs 388 Cr, with improving gross contribution driven by cost
control measures. Although profitability is on an upward trajectory, margins remain negative.
• New Manufacturing Line: At the Fontenay Site in Paris, a new manufacturing line is scheduled to be
added and commissioned during the summer shutdown period in August. Commercial production is
expected to commence in early 2025, with an anticipated incremental revenue of €10 Mn.
• R&D: R&D expenditure as a percentage of base business sales stood at 5% in Q1FY25.
Key Risks to Our Estimates and TP
• The potential issuance of Warning Letters (WL), Official Action Indicated (OAI) status, or 483
observations from USFDA inspections could adversely impact the company's revenue growth.
• The entry of new competitors may increase pricing pressures within the injectable portfolio.
• Delays in launching Biosimilars could further challenge the company's operations and growth strategy.
Change in Estimates
New Old % Change
FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
Sales 6,142 7,016 6,270 6,943 -2.0% 1.0%
EBITDA 1,431 1,824 1,731 1,986 -17.3% -8.2%
PAT 915 1,192 1,140 1,300 -19.7% -8.3%
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
2
Results Review
Particulars (Rs Cr) Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Net Sales 1,209 1,373 1,545 1,537 1,402 16 -9
Growth (%) 41.1% 31.5% 64.7% 95.8% 16.0%
Total Expenditure 915 1,049 1,188 1,179 1,137 24 -4
Raw Material Consumed 466 518 464 575 462
Purchase of stock in trade 4 6 6 7 7
Stock Adjustment -16 -2 129 18 96
% of sales 37.5% 38.0% 38.8% 39.0% 40.2%
Gross margins % 62.5% 62.0% 61.2% 61.0% 59.8% -278 -127
Employee Expenses 255 305 345 352 356 39 1
% of sales 21.1% 22.2% 22.3% 22.9% 25.4%
Other Expenses 157 165 180 170 171 9 1
% of sales 13.0% 12.0% 11.7% 11.1% 12.2%
Power & Fuel 50 58 64 58 47
% of sales 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.3%
EBITDA 294 324 357 359 265 -10 -26
EBITDAM (%) 24.3% 23.6% 23.1% 23.3% 18.9% -546 -447
Interest 5 6 5 10 6
Depreciation 65 81 105 93 92
Other Income 38 53 37 42 51
PBT 261 290 284 299 219 -16 -27
Tax 67 96 91 106 74
Tax (%) 25.7% 33.0% 32.2% 35.4% 34.1%
Reported PAT 194 194 192 193 144 -26 -25
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
Geographical Breakup
Particulars (Rs Cr) Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
USA 591 708 807 873 752 27 -14
India 65 88 76 53 53 -19 0
RoW 162 174 157 159 148 -9 -7
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
3
Financials (consolidated)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Net Sales 5,665 6,142 7,016 8,020
Growth (%) 56.3% 8.4% 14.2% 14.3%
Total Expenditure 4,331 4,711 5,192 5,895
Raw Material Consumed 2,173 2,396 2,596 2,927
Gross margins % 61.6% 61.0% 63.0% 63.5%
Employee Expenses 1,257 1,351 1,543 1,764
% of sales 22.2% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
Other Expenses 902 964 1,052 1,203
% of sales 15.9% 15.7% 15.0% 15.0%
EBIDTA 1,334 1,431 1,824 2,125
EBITDAM (%) 23.5% 23.3% 26.0% 26.5%
Interest 26 26 26 26
EBIT 1,307 1,405 1,798 2,099
EBITM (%) 23.1% 22.9% 25.6% 26.2%
Depreciation 345 376 406 436
Other Income 170 187 193 198
Share of profit/ (loss) of joint venture and associate, net 0 0 0 0
Exceptional items, net 0 0 0 0
PBT 1,133 1,217 1,585 1,862
Tax Rate (%) 31.8% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Tax 360 304 396 466
Reported PAT 772 915 1,192 1,400
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Share Capital 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5
Reserves & Surplus 8,707 9,623 10,814 12,214
Shareholders Fund 8,724 9,639 10,831 12,230
Total Debt 372 372 372 372
Deferred Tax Liab. (Net) 0 0 0 0
Provisions 398 398 398 398
Trade Payables 863 942 1,076 1,230
Other Liabilities 305 350 400 400
Total Liabilities 10,661 11,701 13,077 14,631
Gross Block 4,608 5,008 5,408 5,808
Depreciation 1,067 1,442 1,848 2,284
Fixed Assets (incl. CWIP) 4,184 4,208 4,203 4,167
Inventories 1,655 1,851 2,114 2,417
Trade Receivables 1,559 1,683 1,922 2,197
Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,839 2,482 3,288 4,076
Other Current Assets 1,423 1,474 1,543 1,764
Total Current Assets 5,645 6,630 8,167 9,653
TOTAL ASSETS 10,661 11,702 13,077 14,628
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
4
Cash Flow (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
PBT 1,133 1,217 1,585 1,862
Add: Depreciation 345 376 406 436
Add: Interest 26 26 26 26
Cash flow from operations 1,504 1,618 2,017 2,324
Change in working capital 543 246 388 645
Taxes 360 304 396 466
Miscellaneous expenses 0 0 0 0
Net cash from operations 601 1,068 1,233 1,213
Capital expenditure -2,781 -400 -400 -400
Change in Investments 0 0 0 0
Net cash from investing -2,781 -400 -400 -400
Increase/Decrease in debt 368 0 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0
Proceedings from equity 0 0 0 0
Interest -26 -26 -26 -26
Others -91 0 0 0
Net cash from financing 250 -26 -26 -26
Net Inc./(Dec.) in Cash -1,930 642 807 787
Opening cash balance 3,771 1,839 2,482 3,288
Closing cash balance 1,840 2,482 3,288 4,076
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
Ratio Analysis (%)
Y/E March FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Sales growth 56.3 8.4 14.2 14.3
OPM 23.5 23.3 26.0 26.5
Oper. profit growth 30.1 7.3 27.5 16.5
COGS / Net sales 38.4 39.0 37.0 36.5
Overheads/Net sales
Depreciation / G. block 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Effective interest rate 31.8 25.0 25.0 25.0
Net wkg.cap / Net sales
Net sales / Gr block (x) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4
RoCE 14.8 15.2 18.4 19.9
Debt / equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Effective tax rate 31.8 25.0 25.0 25.0
RoE 8.8 9.5 11.0 11.4
Payout ratio (Div/NP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS (Rs.) 46.9 55.6 72.4 85.0
EPS Growth (1.2) 18.6 30.2 17.4
CEPS (Rs.) 31.3 27.0 21.8 19.0
DPS (Rs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
5
Gland Pharma Price Chart and Recommendation History
(Rs)
Date Reco TP Research
24-Jan-23 HOLD 1,500 Result Update
02-May-23 BUY 1,500 Result Update
18-May-23 BUY 1,400 Result Update
09-Aug-23 HOLD 1,620 Result Update
07-Nov-23 BUY 1,700 Result Update
14-Feb-24 HOLD 1,825 Result Update
22-May-24 HOLD 1,950 Result Update
07-Aug-24 HOLD 2,000 Result Update
Source: Axis Securities
6
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NEERAJ NEERAJ CHADAWAR
CHADAWAR Date: 2024.08.07
09:12:09 +05'30'
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RATING SCALE: Definitions of ratings
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 – 18 months
BUY More than 10%
HOLD Between 10% and -10%
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Note: Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.
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