Thayer ASEAN's 46th Summit - Scene Setter
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Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer ASEAN's 46th Summit - Scene Setter
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Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
[email protected] ASEAN’s 46th Summit: Scene
Setter
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 24, 2025
We request your assessment of the forthcoming 46th ASEAN Summitl
Q1. The ASEAN Summit 2025 will take place in Malaysia from 26 to 27 May 2025 with
the theme “Inclusive and Sustainable”. What do you think about the purpose, the
meanings and the significance of this theme?
ANSWER: Malaysia’s choice of the theme “Inclusive and Sustainable” as ASEAN Chair
for 2025 is meant to convey that the needs and interests of all ten members will be
included in policy deliberations and that ASEAN’s Community Building program, which
starts a new phase after 2025, will promote sustainable and environmentally friendly
economic growth.
In January, the Press Statement issued after the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat,
identified the following priorities set by Malaysia as ASEAN Chair: “advancing ASEAN’s
collective vision of a resilient, people-centred, forward looking ASEAN Community
while advancing economic growth and regional connectivity, and enhancing regional
resilience.”
Q2. In your assessment, what main topics will the ASEAN Summit 2025 discuss?
ANSWER: ASEAN’s program of community-building rests on three pillars: economic,
political-security and socio-cultural. Each of these pillars has a Strategic Plan and a
Blueprint that expire at the end of this year. Adopting new Strategic Plans for 2026-
2030 for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), ASEAN Political-Security Community
(APSC) and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) will be priority items on the
agenda and come under the adoption of an ASEAN Community Vision 2045: Resilient,
Innovative, Dynamic and People-Centred ASEAN.
ASEAN will also address three pressing issues: the upheaval in the global trading
system, the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar and how to achieve ASEAN’s Five-Point
Consensus, and Timor-Leste’s long-standing application for membership.
Q3. Do you expect this summit to help strengthen the ASEAN community as well as
enhance the cohesion and solidarity of ASEAN countries in the economic, political and
social fields? Could you please elaborate on your comments?
ANSWER: ASEAN community building will be a continual work in progress. ASEAN’s
46th Summit will conduct an end of term review on each Blueprint for 2025 for each
of its three pillars – AEC, APSC, and ASCC – and endorse new Blueprints for 2026.
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However, progress will remain spotty and incremental. For example, ASEAN will
transfer responsibility for coordinating cross-pillar issues from its Joint Consultative
Meeting to the Committee of Permanent Representatives to address gaps. This will
take time to implement.
ASEAN has a growing list of projects under its three pillars that are moving too slowly.
The ASEAN Framework Agreement on Intellectual Property Cooperation will need to
be revised and upgraded. A definite timeline for advancing regional connectivity under
the ASEAN Power Grid, the Roadmap on Digital Trade Standards in ASEAN, ASEAN
Connectivity Strategic Plan, and the ASEAN Plan of Action in Combatting Transnational
Crime need to be stepped up.
There are other matters than have slowed and need attention: ASEAN Extradition
Treaty, model templates on ASEAN Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters,
whether to establish an ASEAN Prosecutors/Attorney General Meeting/Body/Entity,
draft of the Guidelines for the Exchange of Information on E-Commerce Data, draft
ASEAN Sustainable Investment Guidelines, ASEAN Digital Economic Framework
Agreement, ASEAN Framework Agreement on Competition, Blue Economic
Implementation Plan (2026-2030), upgrading ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement,
establishment and operation of the ASEAN Centre for Public Health Emergencies and
Emerging Diseases, and finalization of the ASEAN Report on Women’s Political
Participation and Leadership.
Approval to establish the ASEAN Centre for Climate Change and the ASEAN
Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control has been delayed by
several ASEAN members who have not signed on to the requisite agreements.
Q4. Do you think the summit will help enhance ASEAN's role in the region and the
world, as well as contribute to regional and global peace, stability and prosperity?
Could you please elaborate on your assessment?
ANSWER: ASEAN members fully support the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)
and continually insist on ASEAN’s centrality in the regional security architecture.
ASEAN’s dialogue partners also have endorsed the AOIP’s four priority areas: maritime
cooperation, connectivity, economic co-operation, and sustainable development.
However, geopolitical tensions arising from a trade war between the United States
and China; the recent conflict between India and Pakistan; North Korea’s flouting of
UN sanctions; Chinese aggressive maritime actions against Taiwan, the Philippines and
Japan; and continued conflict in Myanmar all illustrate constraints on ASEAN
effectiveness.
Q5. What is your assessment about the prospect of the ASEAN-Australia relationship
in the future, especially after this summit? What are the areas in which ASEAN and
Australia can promote deeper co-operation?
ANSWER: Australia and ASEAN already have a Plan of Action (2025-2029) that covers
an extensive range of cooperative activities under each of ASEAN’s three pillars. For
example, Australia contributes to the ASEAN Political Security Community pillar
through cooperation in maritime security, counter-terrorism, humanitarian assistance
and disaster relief, mine action, cyber and transnational crime.
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The current geopolitical tensions between the United States and China serve to draw
Australia and ASEAN closer together. The recent protocol to the ASEAN Australia New
Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) provides a framework for cooperation to
mitigate the impact of Trump’s trade war with its focus on trade and tariffs. In
addition, Australia and ASEAN can work together as members of the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to remove trade barriers and promote
resilient supply chains.
Australia will provide enhanced support for ASEAN-led mechanisms especially the East
Asia Forum where dialogue among heads of state and government are vital at a time
of rising geopolitical tensions.
In addition, Australia will strongly support the ASEAN Regional Forum moving into the
second phase of its development – preventive diplomacy.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “ASEAN’s 46th Summit: Scene Setter,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, May 24, 2025. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
