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Ganesh Housing

The document provides a detailed guide on using the Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel spreadsheet, specifically for analyzing companies listed on Screener.in. It includes step-by-step instructions for downloading financial data, important instructions for using the spreadsheet, and a checklist based on Warren Buffett's investment principles. Additionally, it presents a financial overview of Ganesh Housing Corporation Ltd, including key financial metrics and balance sheet details.
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
30 views37 pages

Ganesh Housing

The document provides a detailed guide on using the Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel spreadsheet, specifically for analyzing companies listed on Screener.in. It includes step-by-step instructions for downloading financial data, important instructions for using the spreadsheet, and a checklist based on Warren Buffett's investment principles. Additionally, it presents a financial overview of Ganesh Housing Corporation Ltd, including key financial metrics and balance sheet details.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 37

Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET


Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in


Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,020 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 8.3
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 8,511

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 12.9% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 25.7% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 28.8% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.3 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 12.6%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 15.8
Latest P/E (x) 14.2
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming


evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an


upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it


knows?

Has the company been buying back its


shares?

Have retained earnings been invested


well?

Is the company’s return on equity above


average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to


inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.


Balance Sheet
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
Equity Share Capital 33 49 49 49 49 49 83 83 83 83
Reserves 757 798 840 698 575 453 706 805 1,246 1,973
Borrowings 602 764 707 663 533 409 142 240 247 27
Other Liabilities 256 272 243 336 214 220 248 290 193 254
Total 1,648 1,883 1,839 1,746 1,372 1,131 1,179 1,419 1,769 2,338

Net Block 221 231 223 225 223 208 208 261 438 435
Capital Work in Progress 2 - - 0 2 - - 21 148 360
Investments 0 0 0 - - - - - - -
Other Assets 1,425 1,652 1,616 1,521 1,146 923 972 1,136 1,183 1,543
Total 1,648 1,883 1,839 1,746 1,372 1,131 1,179 1,419 1,769 2,338

Working Capital 1,169 1,380 1,372 1,185 932 703 724 846 990 1,289
Debtors 212 306 485 106 84 0 116 90 121 344
Inventory 713 720 510 815 538 370 429 515 442 447
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 241 278 355 150 115 0 111 53 50 131


Inventory Turnover 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Debt/Equity 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
Return on Equity 9% 9% 6% 4% -19% -21% 9% 11% 35% 29%
Return on Capital Employed 15% 13% 13% 5% -5% -4% 14% 22% 40% 39%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Trailing
Sales 321 401 499 258 267 168 383 616 891 960 960
% Growth YOY 25% 24% -48% 3% -37% 128% 61% 45% 8%
Expenses 117 195 304 188 320 216 248 364 267 180 181
Material Cost (% of Sales) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 36% 42% 17% 27% 6% 16% 73% 67% 18% 0% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 6% 6% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0%
Operating Profit 204 207 195 71 -53 -48 134 252 624 779 779
Operating Profit Margin 64% 51% 39% 27% -20% -29% 35% 41% 70% 81% 81%
Other Income 2 6 8 6 2 10 1 4 6 34 34
Other Income as % of Sales 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 0.9% 6.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 3.5% 3.5%
Depreciation 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 7 7 7
Interest 100 93 101 92 80 75 36 13 4 4 4
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 2 2 1 -1 -1 4 19 167 210 210
Profit before tax (PBT) 102 116 100 -17 -132 -114 97 240 620 802 802
% Growth YOY 14% -14% -117% 678% -14% -185% 147% 158% 29%
PBT Margin 32% 29% 20% -7% -50% -68% 25% 39% 70% 84% 84%
Tax 32 42 49 -44 -13 -9 27 138 159 204 204
Net profit 70 75 51 27 -120 -105 71 102 461 598 598
% Growth YOY 6% -32% -48% -551% -12% -167% 45% 351% 30%
Net Profit Margin 22% 19% 10% 10% -45% -63% 18% 17% 52% 62% 62%
EPS 14.4 15.2 10.3 5.4 -24.3 -21.4 8.5 12.2 55.2 71.7 71.7
% Growth YOY 6% -32% -48% -551% -12% -140% 45% 351% 30%
Price to earning 4.8 5.5 11.5 11.2 -0.7 -2.6 31.5 21.9 13.4 14.8 14.2
Price 69 84 119 61 18 56 266 268 741 1,059 1,020
Dividend Payout 10.6% 14.1% 17.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 19.9% 7.0%
Market Cap 339 412 585 298 87 274 2,220 2,236 6,176 8,833
Retained Earnings 63 64 42 24 -120 -105 71 82 369 556
Buffett's $1 Test 8.1

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS


Sales Growth 12.9% 9.8% 29.1% 35.9%
PBT Growth 25.7% 34.6% -243.4% 102.0%
PBT Margin 17.4% 13.3% 29.9% 64.0%
Price to Earning 11.1 12.8 15.8 16.7
Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
Cash Flow Statement
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Rs Cr Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 168 202 75 129 123 132 41 31 638 410 1,948
% Growth YoY 20% -63% 72% -5% 8% -69% -25% 1980% -36%
Cash from Investing Activity -86 -140 26 84 53 43 39 278 -489 -389 -579
Cash from Financing Activity -60 -57 -105 -216 -202 -173 -85 1 -244 -94 -1,234
Net Cash Flow 22 5 -3 -3 -26 3 -5 310 -95 -73 135
CFO/Sales 52% 50% 15% 50% 46% 79% 11% 5% 72% 43%
CFO/Net Profit 239% 270% 148% 487% -103% -126% 58% 30% 138% 69%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -147 -10 -289 -436 -484 -805 -1,115 -1,607 -600 -414 -5,907
Average FCF (3 Years) -874
FCF Growth YoY -93% 2853% 51% 11% 66% 39% 44% -63% -31%
FCF/Sales -46% -2% -58% -169% -181% -479% -291% -261% -67% -43%
FCF/Net Profit -239% -14% -569% -1641% 405% 765% -1579% -1574% -130% -69%

** Manually enter this number;


Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
Key Ratios
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Sales Growth 25.0% 24.3% -48.2% 3.4% -37.1% 127.6% 60.9% 44.8%
PBT Growth 14.0% -14.1% ### 677.7% -13.7% ### 146.9% 158.2%
Net Profit Growth 5.9% -31.9% -47.7% ### -12.0% ### 44.8% 351.0%
Dividend Growth 50.1% -9.6% -72.2% ### #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 358.4%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 20.1% -62.7% 71.6% -5.1% 7.8% -69.0% -25.2% ###
Free Cash Flow Growth -93.4% ### 50.9% 11.1% 66.2% 38.5% 44.2% -62.7%

Operating Margin 63.6% 51.5% 39.1% 27.4% -19.7% -28.7% 35.1% 40.9% 70.0%
PBT Margin 31.8% 29.0% 20.0% -6.6% -49.5% -67.9% 25.4% 39.0% 69.5%
Net Margin 21.9% 18.6% 10.2% 10.3% -44.8% -62.6% 18.4% 16.6% 51.7%

Debtor Days 240.5 278.3 354.8 150.2 115.2 0.1 110.7 53.4 49.7
Inventory Turnover 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.0
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.0
Debt/Equity 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2
Debt/Assets 36.5% 40.6% 38.4% 38.0% 38.9% 36.2% 12.0% 16.9% 14.0%
Interest Coverage (Times) 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.8 -0.7 -0.5 3.7 18.8 167.2
Return on Equity 8.9% 8.8% 5.7% 3.6% -19.2% -21.0% 8.9% 11.5% 34.7%
Return on Capital Employed 14.5% 13.0% 12.6% 5.3% -4.5% -4.3% 14.3% 22.5% 39.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -147 -10 -289 -436 -484 -805 -1,115 -1,607 -600
Mar/25
7.7%
29.4%
29.8%
-54.5%
-35.7%
-31.0%

81.2%
83.5%
62.3%

130.7
2.1
2.2
0.0
1.2%
210.3
29.1%
38.7%
-414
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)


Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
100% Profit Margin 60% Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend
50% 40% Numbers > 20% long te
company has zero/marg
20% competitor
0%
0%
16 -1
7
-1
8
-1
9
-2
0
-2
1
-2
2
-2
3
-2
4
-2
5
-50% n- n n n n n n n n n 6 7 8 9
Ja Check
Ja for Jaa rising
Ja trend
Ja and/or
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja -20% -1 -1 -1 -1
n n n n
consistency. Compare with a close Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
-100% competitor -40%

Operating Margin PBT Margin


Net Margin ROE

1,200 Revenue 800% Revenue and P


Check for a rising trend. Check for a
1,000 600% Compare gr
400% tor.
800
200%
600 0%
400 -200% 17 8 9 0
n- n-1 n-1 n-2
-400%Ja Ja Ja Ja
200
-600%
- -800%
-16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 -25 Revenue Grow
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Net Profit Gro

1,000 Profit Over Time Operating an


1,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive nu
800 500 and which are rising o
time.
600 -
400 -500 -16 -17 -18 -19
n n n n
200 -1,000Ja Ja Ja Ja J
- -1,500
-200 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 -2,000
n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F


Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Operating Margin 64% 51% 39% 27% -20% -29% 35% 41% 70%
PBT Margin 32% 29% 20% -7% -50% -68% 25% 39% 70%
Net Margin 22% 19% 10% 10% -45% -63% 18% 17% 52%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
ROE 9% 9% 6% 4% -19% -21% 9% 11% 35%
ROCE 15% 13% 13% 5% -5% -4% 14% 22% 40%

Revenue & Profit Growth


Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24 Mar/25
Revenue Growth 25% 24% -48% 3% -37% 128% 61% 45% 8%
PBT Growth 14% -14% -117% 678% -14% -185% 147% 158% 29%
Net Profit Growth 6% -32% -48% -551% -12% -167% 45% 351% 30%

Revenue & Profit


Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Revenue 321 401 499 258 267 168 383 616 891
PBT 102 116 100 -17 -132 -114 97 240 620
Net Profit 70 75 51 27 -120 -105 71 102 461

Cash Flows
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 Mar/24
Operating Cash Flow 168 202 75 129 123 132 41 31 638
Free Cash Flow -147 -10 -289 -436 -484 -805 -1,115 -1,607 -600
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the
company has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close Note: Please ignore the dates
competitor on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 March of that year
n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2
a Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)


Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competi-
tor.

7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
n-1 n-1 n-1 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2 n-2
a Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Revenue Growth PBT Growth


Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free


0 Check Cash Flow
for positive numbers
0 and which are rising over
time.

0 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 -25
n n n n n n n n n n
0Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow


Mar/25
81%
84%
62%

Mar/25
29%
39%

Mar/25
960
802
598

Mar/25
410
-414
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
Change in Inventory 10% 2% -37% -34% -103% -99% 15% 14% -8% 0%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 36% 42% 17% 27% 6% 16% 73% 67% 18% 0%
Employee Cost 3% 3% 3% 6% 6% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0%
Other Expenses 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Operating Profit 44% 48% 113% 95% 187% 169% 5% 13% 86% 80%
Other Income 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 0% 1% 1% 4%
Depreciation 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Interest 31% 23% 20% 36% 30% 44% 9% 2% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 32% 29% 20% -7% -50% -68% 25% 39% 70% 84%
Tax 10% 10% 10% -17% -5% -5% 7% 22% 18% 21%
Net Profit 19% 17% 10% 10% -45% -63% 18% 17% 52% 62%
Dividend Amount 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 10% 4%

Common Size Balance Sheet


Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 7% 6% 5% 4%
Reserves 46% 42% 46% 40% 42% 40% 60% 57% 70% 84%
Borrowings 37% 41% 38% 38% 39% 36% 12% 17% 14% 1%
Other Liabilities 16% 14% 13% 19% 16% 19% 21% 20% 11% 11%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 13% 12% 12% 13% 16% 18% 18% 18% 25% 19%
Capital Work in Progress 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 8% 15%
Investments 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 86% 88% 88% 87% 84% 82% 82% 80% 67% 66%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 13% 16% 26% 6% 6% 0% 10% 6% 7% 15%
Inventory 43% 38% 28% 47% 39% 33% 36% 36% 25% 19%
Cash & Bank 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 23% 13% 7%
A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD GANESH HOUSING CORPORATIO


Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,005) (897) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,156) (921) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,329) (946) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,462) (929) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,608) (913) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (1,769) (896) Sales 29% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (1,858) (840) PBT -243% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (1,950) (788) FCF -3% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,048) (739) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,150) (692) 10 FY27
10 -21,504 (6,924) 10
Intrinsic Value (9,657) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 8,511 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -188% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD


Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,049) (936) Year 4-6 15%
(1,258) (1,003) Year 7-10 10%
(1,510) (1,075) Discount Rate 12%
(1,737) (1,104)
(1,997) (1,133)
(2,297) (1,164)
(2,526) (1,143)
(2,779) (1,122)
(3,057) (1,102)
(3,363) (1,083)
(50,441) (16,241)
Intrinsic Value (21,278)
Current Mkt. Cap. 8,511
Premium/(Discount) to IV -140%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting


, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name ING CORPORATION LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/25 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 225.2 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (119.0) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (51,687) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 8,511 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y


Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations


m Formula (High Range)
ING CORPORATION LTD
Mar/25

225.2
8.5
(238.0)

(105,288)
8,511

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (874) (19,895)


8,511
Years 1-5 6-10 -234%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,801)

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 (1,005) 15% (897)
2 (1,156) 15% (921)
3 (1,329) 15% (946)
4 (1,529) 15% (971)
5 (1,758) 15% (997)
6 (1,969) 12% (997)
7 (2,205) 12% (997)
8 (2,470) 12% (997)
9 (2,766) 12% (997)
10 (3,098) 12% (997)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,160)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (9,721)
Terminal Value (10,174)
Total PV of Cash Flows (19,895)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 8,511

Note: See explanation of DCF here


Valuation
ATION LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)


Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
Expected Returns Model
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Particulars Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 62 69 51 27 -120 -105 71
Net Profit Margin 19% 17% 10% 10% -45% -63% 18%
Return on Equity 9% 9% 6% 4% -19% -21% 9%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)


Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 1,857
Current P/E (x) 14.2
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 37,150
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 11,961
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 8,511

Note: See explanation of this model here


el
LTD
Mar/23 Mar/24 Mar/25 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
102 461 598 29% -238%
17% 52% 62%
11% 35% 29%
Intrinsic Value Range
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho -9,657 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham -51,687 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
understand this business?
DCF -19,895
Expected Return 11,961 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 8,511 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
Explanation: Considering the above the-envelope".
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
if the current market cap is within this IV decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ve answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-


are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the


vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25
Sales 67 179 270 163 181 277 214 237 257 251
% Growth YOY 171% 54% -21% 45% 42% -9%
Expenses 20 78 55 42 45 128 65 35 46 35
Operating Profit 47 101 216 121 137 149 149 203 211 217
Other Income 1 4 1 1 2 3 6 12 7 8
Depreciation 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Interest 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Profit before tax 42 102 215 120 136 149 153 212 215 221
PBT Margin 62% 57% 80% 73% 75% 54% 71% 89% 84% 88%
% Growth YOY 225% 46% -29% 77% 59% 48%
Tax 11 63 54 34 35 37 39 54 54 57
Net profit 21 47 161 86 101 113 114 158 161 165
% Growth YOY 376% 143% -29% 84% 60% 46%
OPM 70% 56% 80% 74% 75% 54% 70% 85% 82% 86%
COMPANY NAME GANESH HOUSING CORPORATION LT
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 8.35
Face Value 10
Current Price 1019.8
Market Capitalization 8510.81

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Sales 321.09 401.42 498.98 258.44 267.2 168.16
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory 31.40 6.87 -183.86 -87.30 -276.35 -166.50
Power and Fuel 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.5 0.41
Other Mfr. Exp 115.01 169.32 84 71.04 17.19 27.72
Employee Cost 10.92 12.7 15.67 15.35 15.83 10.07
Selling and admin 22.48 17.49 18.24 11.46 6.99 8.78
Other Expenses -0.51 1.76 1.72 1.92 3.06 2.88
Other Income 2.12 6.31 8.06 6.11 2.31 10.47
Depreciation 4.04 3.52 2.58 2.26 2.07 1.72
Interest 100.1 92.97 100.52 91.75 79.88 74.76
Profit before tax 102.09 116.36 99.98 -17.02 -132.36 -114.21
Tax 31.65 41.73 49.18 -43.57 -12.74 -8.95
Net profit 61.52 69.39 50.8 26.55 -119.63 -105.24
Dividend Amount 6.53 9.8 8.86 2.46

Quarters
Report Date Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24
Sales 66.85 179.3 270.45 163.35 181.43 276.78
Expenses 19.84 78.19 54.5 41.91 44.76 127.71
Other Income 0.53 3.71 1 0.7 1.91 3.31
Depreciation 0.69 0.79 0.93 1.66 1.98 2.02
Interest 5.07 1.65 0.98 0.86 1.00 0.89
Profit before tax 41.78 102.38 215.04 119.62 135.6 149.47
Tax 11.45 62.96 53.71 33.61 35.05 36.67
Net profit 21.13 46.5 161.34 86.01 100.56 112.8
Operating Profit 47.01 101.11 215.95 121.44 136.67 149.07

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Equity Share Capital 32.67 49 49.23 49.23 49.23 49.23
Reserves 757.3 797.67 839.96 698.01 575 452.78
Borrowings 601.99 764.05 706.70 663.07 533.14 409.13
Other Liabilities 255.63 272.35 243.24 335.87 214.31 220.08
Total 1647.59 1883.07 1839.13 1746.18 1371.68 1131.22
Net Block 220.56 230.71 223.49 224.81 223.08 207.78
Capital Work in Progress 2.01 0.1 2.29
Investments 0.01 0.01 0.01
Other Assets 1425.01 1652.35 1615.63 1521.27 1146.31 923.44
Total 1647.59 1883.07 1839.13 1746.18 1371.68 1131.22
Receivables 211.61 306.06 485.03 106.38 84.3 0.03
Inventory 713.03 719.77 510.45 815.35 537.59 370.34
Cash & Bank 44.36 49.27 46.04 43.15 16.73 19.77
No. of Equity Shares 32668546 49002819 49227090 49227090 49227090 49227090
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Cash from Operating Activity 168 201.79 75.29 129.2 122.64 132.23
Cash from Investing Activity -85.51 -140.26 25.98 84.1 53.09 43.37
Cash from Financing Activity -60.47 -56.62 -104.51 -216.19 -202.15 -172.56
Net Cash Flow 22.02 4.92 -3.24 -2.88 -26.42 3.04

PRICE: 69.2 84.15 118.85 60.65 17.75 55.65

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 4.90 4.90 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25


382.72 615.62 891.2 959.76
143.59
57.49 85.75 -72.67 3.46
0.45 0.45 0.5
280.03 414.8 157.71
12.6 18.28 18.25 20.12
12.68 11.34 15.42
0.21 4.72 2.92 20.24
1.25 4.47 6.33 33.73
1.96 2.72 6.59 7.43
36.3 13.48 3.73 3.83
97.23 240.05 619.74 801.74
26.67 137.9 159.04 203.68
70.63 102.15 460.71 598.06
20.01 91.73 41.7

Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25


214.14 237.22 257.01 251.39
65.02 34.66 46.02 34.8
6.49 12.47 7.08 7.7
1.84 1.84 1.89 1.86
1.04 0.94 0.91 0.94
152.73 212.25 215.27 221.49
38.89 53.76 54.43 56.6
113.84 158.48 160.84 164.9
149.12 202.56 210.99 216.59

Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25


83.39 83.39 83.39 83.39
706.42 805.38 1246.07 1973.21
141.89 239.84 246.84 27.42
247.67 289.91 192.82 254.31
1179.37 1418.52 1769.12 2338.33
207.78 260.97 437.68 435.44
21.44 148.37 359.82

971.59 1136.11 1183.07 1543.07


1179.37 1418.52 1769.12 2338.33
116.06 90.08 121.24 343.68
428.80 514.99 442.04 446.85
14.93 325.21 230.64 157.46
83387090 83387090 83387090

10 10 10 10

Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25


41.01 30.66 637.81 409.84
39.39 278.23 -488.64 -388.84
-85.24 1.39 -243.74 -94.18
-4.84 310.28 -94.57 -73.18

266.2 268.15 740.55 1059.15

8.34 8.34 8.34 8.34


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