Mark Scheme (Results)

October 2021

Pearson Edexcel GCE

In Mathematics (9MA0)

Paper 31 Statistics
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October 2021
Question Paper Log Number P68828A
Publications Code 9MA0_31_2111_MS
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2021
General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must

mark the first candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be
rewarded for what they have shown they can do rather than penalised
for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according
to their perception of where the grade boundaries may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme
should be used appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded.
Examiners should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the
answer matches the mark scheme. Examiners should also be
prepared to award zero marks if the candidate’s response is not
worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the
principles by which marks will be awarded and exemplification may
be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the mark
scheme to a candidate’s response, the team leader must be
consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has
replaced it with an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL GCE MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 100.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting to
apply it’, unless otherwise indicated.
• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M) marks
have been earned.
• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark
schemes.

• bod – benefit of doubt

• ft – follow through
• the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao – correct answer only
• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the
question to obtain this mark
• isw – ignore subsequent working
• awrt – answers which round to
• SC: special case
• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep – dependent
• indep – independent
• dp decimal places
• sf significant figures
•  The answer is printed on the paper
• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark
 4. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially
simplify it, deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question
affected.

5. Where a candidate has made multiple responses and indicates which response
they wish to submit, examiners should mark this response.
If there are several attempts at a question which have not been crossed out,
examiners should mark the final answer which is the answer that is the most
complete.

6. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.

7. Mark schemes will firstly show the solution judged to be the most common
response expected from candidates. Where appropriate, alternatives
answers are provided in the notes. If examiners are not sure if an answer is
acceptable, they will check the mark scheme to see if an alternative answer is
given for the method used.

Pearson Education Limited. Registered company number 872828

with its registered office at 80 Strand, London, WC2R 0RL, United Kingdom
Qu 1 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Disadvantage: e.g. Not random; cannot use (reliably) for inferences B1 1.1b
(1)
(b) [Sight or correct use of] X ~B(36, 0.08) M1 3.3
(i) P(X = 4) = 0.167387… awrt 0.167 A1 1.1b
(ii) [ P( X  7) = ] 0.022233… awrt 0.0222
1 − P( X  6) = A1 1.1b
(3)
(c) 4 1.1b
P(In dance club and dance tango) = 0.4 × 0.08 = 0.032 or or 3.2% B1
125
(1)
(d) [Let T = those who can dance the Tango. Sight or use of]
M1 3.3
T ~B(50, “0.032”)
[P(T < 3 ) = P(T  2) = ] 0.7850815… awrt 0.785 A1 1.1b
(2)
( 7 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for a suitable disadvantage:
Allow (B1) Do NOT allow (B0)
Not random or less random (o.e.) Not representative
Cannot use (reliably) for inferences Less accurate
(More likely to be) biased Any comment based on time or cost
Any mention of skew
Any mention of non-response

(b) M1 for sight of B(36, 0.08) Allow in words: binomial with n = 36 and p = 0.08
may be implied by one correct answer to 2sf or sight of P( X  6) = 0.97776... i.e. awrt 0.98
Allow for 36C4 × 0.084 × 0.9232 as this is "correct use"
(i) 1st A1 for awrt 0.167 NB An answer of just awrt 0.167 scores M1( ⇒ )1st A1
(ii) 2nd A1 for awrt 0.0222

(c) B1 for 0.032 o.e. (Can allow for sight of 0.4 × 0.08 )

(d) M1 for sight of B(50, “0.032”) ft their answer to (c) provided it is a probability ≠ 0.08
may be implied by correct answer
or sight of [P(T  3)] = 0.924348…i.e. awrt 0.924 or P(T  2) as part of 1 – P(T  2) calc.
A1 for awrt 0.785
MR Allow MR of 50 (e.g. 30) provided clearly attempting P(T  2) and score M1A0
Qu 2 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Negative B1 1.2
(1)
(b) Marc’s suggestion is compatible because it’s negative correlation
B1 2.4
(1)
(c) (r = ) – 0.54458266… awrt – 0.545 B1 1.1b
(1)
(d) = H0 : ρ 0 H1 : ρ < 0 B1 2.5
[5% 1-tail cv = ] (+) 0.4259 M1 1.1a
(significant result / reject H0)
There is evidence of negative correlation between the number of letters in A1 2.2b
(or length of) a student’s last name and their first name
(3)

( 6 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for “negative” Allow “slight” or “weak” etc
Allow a description e.g. “as x increases y decreases” or in context e.g. “people with longer
last names tend to have shorter first names”
A comment of “negative skew” is B0
Need to see distinct or separate responses for (a) and (b)

(b) B1 for a comment that suggests data is compatible with the suggestion and a suitable reason
such as “there is negative correlation” or a description in x and y or in context
or the points lie close to a line with negative gradient
or draw line y = x and state that more points below the line so supports (or is compatible
with) his suggestion
A reason based on just a single point is B0
e.g. “ 11 letters in last name has only 5 in first name”

(c) B1 for awrt – 0.545

(d) B1 for both hypotheses correct in terms of ρ

M1 for a critical value compatible with their H1:
1-tail: awrt + 0.426 (condone + 0.425) or 2-tail (B0 scored for H1) : awrt + 0.497
If hypotheses are in words and can deduce whether one or two-tail then use their words.
If no hypotheses or their H1 is not clearly one or two tail assume one-tail
A1 for compatible signs between cv and r and a correct conclusion in context mentioning
correlation and number of letters or length and name (ft their value from (c))
Do NOT award this A mark if contradictory comments or working seen e.g. “accept H0”
or comparison of 0.426 with significance level of 0.05 etc
NB The M1A1 can be scored independently of the hypotheses
Qu 3 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Hectopascal or hPa B1 1.2
(1)
(b) 214
x=
y + 1010 or + 1010 M1 1.1b
30
= 1017.1333… awrt 1017 A1 1.1b
(2)
(c) σ x = σ y (or statement that standard deviation is not affected by this
M1 3.1b
type of coding)
5912
σ y  − ("7.13[33...]") or 146.1822...
2
= M1 1.1b
30
= 12.0905… awrt 12.1 A1 1.1b
(3)
(d) High pressure (since approx. mean + sd ) so clockwise
B1
Locations are (from North to South): Leuchars, Heathrow, Hurn
2.4
Wind direction is direction wind blows from
So: Heathrow (NE) Hurn (E) Leuchars (W) B1 2.2a
(2)
( 8 marks)
Notes
FYI 1 hPa = 100 Pa; 10hPa = 1 kPa; 1Pa = 1 Nm-2

(a) B1 for “hectopascal” or hPa (condone pascals, allow millibars or mb) o.e.
Do NOT allow kPa or kilopascals or Pa on its own

(b) M1 for a strategy to find x

Allow an attempt to find ∑ x that gets as far as ∑ x= ∑ y − 30 ×1010 [= 30 514]
A1 for awrt 1017 (accept 1020) [Ignore incorrect units]

(c) 1st M1 for an overall strategy using the fact σ x = σ y (can be implied by correct final ans)
or for ∑ x 30
= = 514 and ∑ x 2 31 041192 (both seen and correct)
2nd M1 for a correct expression (with )(ft their y to 3sf) allow awrt 146 for 146.1822..
or for correct expression in x can ft their ∑ x > 30 000 or their answer to (b)
nd
A1 (dep on 2 M1) for awrt 12.1 [Ignore incorrect units]
Final
answer
Final ans of awrt 12.1 scores 3/3 but if they then adjust for x e.g. add 1010 (M0M1A1)

(d) 1st B1 for at least one of these reasons (these 2 lines) clearly stated (may see diagram)
Need “high pressure” and “clockwise” to score on 1st line
Contradictory statements B0 e.g. correct N~S list but say “anticlockwise”

2nd B1 (indep of 1st B1) for deducing the 3 correct directions either in the table or stated
as above
If the answers in table and text are different we take the table (as question says)
Qu 4 Scheme Marks AO
(a) 0.08 + 0.09 + 0.36 = 0.53 B1 1.1b
(1)
(b)(i)  P ( G ∩ E ∩ S ) = 0 ⇒  p = 0 B1 1.1b
(ii) [P(G) = 0.25 ⇒ ] 0.08 + 0.05 + q + " p " =0.25 M1 1.1b
q = 0.12 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c)(i)  5  r + " p" 5
 P ( S | E ) = ⇒ = M1 3.1a
12  r + " p "+ 0.09 + 0.05 12 A1ft 1.1b
[12r = 5r + 5 × 0.14 ⇒] r = 0.10 A1 1.1b
(ii) [0.08 + 0.05 + "0.12"+ "0"+ 0.09 + "0.10"+ 0.36 + t =1 ⇒ ] t = 0.20 B1ft 1.1b
(4)
(d) P ( S ∩ E ′ ) = 0.36 + “q” [= 0.48] B1ft 1.1b
( )
P ( S ∩ E ′ )  ∩ G =
" q " [=0.12] and P(G) = 0.25 and
M1 2.1
P ( S ∩ E ′ ) × P(G=
) "0.48"× 14 or 0.12
( )
P ( S ∩ E ′ ) × P(G ) = 0.12 = P ( S ∩ E ′ )  ∩ G so are independent A1 2.2a
(3)
( 11 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for 0.53 (or exact equivalent) [ Allow 53%]

(b)(i) B1 for p = 0 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(ii) M1 for a linear equation for q (ft letter “p” or their value if 0  p  0.12 ) ⇒ by p + q = 0.12
A1 for q = 0.12 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(c)(i) M1 for a ratio of probabilities (r on num and den) (on LHS) with num < den and num or den
correct ft. Allow ft of letter “p” or their p where 0  p < 0.86 but “+ 0” is not required.
1 A1ft for a correct ratio of probabilities (on LHS) allowing ft of their p where 0  p < 0.86
st

2nd A1 for r = 0.1(0) or exact equivalent (may be in Venn diagram) Ans only 3/3
(ii) B1ft for t = 0.2(0) (o.e.) or correct ft i.e. 0.42 – (p + q + r) where p, q, r and t are all probs

(d) B1ft for P ( S ∩ E ′ ) = 0.48 (with label) (ft letter “q” or their value if 0  q  0.12)
M1 for attempting all required probs (labelled) and using them in a correct test (allow ft of q)
A1 for all probs correct and a correct deduction (no ft deduction here)
SC No “P” If correct argument seen apart from P for probability for all 3 marks, award (B0M1A1)
If unsure about an attempt using conditional probabilities, please send to review.
Qu 5 Scheme Marks AO
k − 166.5
( )
(a)
 Let F ~ N 166.5, 6.12  P(F < k ) = 0.01 ⇒ =
−2.3263 M1 3.4
 6.1
k = 152.309… 152 or awrt 152.3 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b) [ P( 150 < F < 175) = ] 0.914840… awrt 0.915 B1 1.1b
(1)
(c) P( F > 160 | 150 < F < 175) M1 3.1b
P(160 < F < 175) P(160 < F < 175)
= or M1 1.1b
P(150 < F < 175) "(b)"
0.7749487...
= A1ft 1.1b
"0.91484..."
= 0.84708… awrt 0.847 A1 1.1b
(4)
(d) H 0 : µ 166.5
= H1 : µ < 166.5 B1 2.5
  7.4  
2

[Let X = height of female from 2nd country] X ~ N 166.5,    M1 3.3

  50  

P ( X < 164.6 ) =
0.03472... A1 3.4
[0.0347… < 0.05 so significant or reject H0]
dA1 2.2b
There is evidence to support Mia’s belief
(4)
( 11 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for standardising (allow +) with k, 166.5 and 6.1 and set equal to a z value 2.3 < |z| < 2.4
A1 for 152 or awrt 152.3 Ans only 2/2 [Condone poor use of notation e.g. P( k −6.1
166.5
) = −2.3263 ]
Allow percentages instead of probabilities throughout.
(b) B1 for awrt 0.915

(c) 1st M1 for interpreting demand as an appropriate conditional probability ( ⇒ by 2nd M1)
2nd M1 for correct ratio of expressions (can ft their (b) on denominator) ( ⇒ by 1st A1ft)
1st A1ft for a correct ratio of probs (can ft their “0.9148…” to 3sf from (b) if > 0.775)
2nd A1 for awrt 0.847

(d) B1 for both correct hypotheses in terms of µ

1 M1 for selecting the correct model (needn’t use X ⇒ by standardisation or 1st A1)
st

1st A1 for correct use of the correct model i.e. awrt 0.035 (allow 0.04 if P (" X " < 164.6 ) seen)
Condone P(" X " > 164.6) = 0.9652 or awrt 0.97 only if comparison with 0.95 is made
ALT Use of z value: Need to see Z = – 1.8(15…) and cv of + 1.6449 (allow 1.64 or better) for 1st A1
ALT Use of CR or CV for X : Need to see “ X ”< 164.7786… or CV = … (awrt 164.8) for 1st A1
Condone truncation i.e 164.7 or better
nd
2 dA1 (dep on M1A1 only) for a correct inference in context.
Must mention Mia’s belief or mean height of females/women
Do NOT award if contradictory statements about hypotheses made e.g. “not sig”
SC M0 for X ~N(164.6, …) If they achieve p = awrt 0.035 (o.e. with z-value or CV of 166.3) and a
correct conclusion in context is given score M0A0A1 [and SC for awrt 0.97 > 0.95 case]
Qu 6 Scheme Marks AO
(a) [Sum of probs = 1 implies] log 36 a + log 36 b + log 36 c =
1 M1 3.1a
⇒ log 36 (abc) = 1 so abc = 36 A1 3.4
All probabilities greater than 0 implies each of a, b and c > 1 B1 2.2a
36= 22 × 32 (or 3 numbers that multiply to give 36 e.g. 2, 2, 9 etc ) dM1 2.1
Since a, b and c are distinct must be 2, 3, 6 (a = 2, b = 3, c = 6) A1 3.2a
(5)
( log36 a ) + ( log36 b ) + ( log36 c )
2 2 2
(b) M1 3.4
[= 0.0374137…+ 0.09398737…+0.25]
= 0.38140… awrt 0.381 A1 1.1b
(2)

( 7 marks)
Notes
(a) 1st M1 for a start to the problem using sum of probabilities leading to eq’n in a, b and c
1st A1 for reducing to the equation abc = 36 [Must follow from their equation.]
NB Can go straight from abc = 36 to the answer for full marks for part (a).
B1 for deducing that each value > 1 (may be implied by 3 integers all > 1 in the next line)
nd
2 dM1 (dep on M1A1) for writing 36 as a product of prime factors or
3 values with product = 36 and none = 1
nd
2 A1 for 2, 3 and 6 as a list or a = 2, b = 3 and c = 6
SC M0M0 If no method marks scored but a correct answer given score: M0A0B1M0A1 (2/5)
Ans only This gets the SC score of 2/5 [Question says show your working clearly]

(b) M1 for a correct expression in terms of a, b and c or values; ft their integers a, b and c
Condone invisible brackets if the answer implies they are used.
A1 for awrt 0.381